Desumond
2021-12-14
👍🏽
Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":607097591,"tweetId":"607097591","gmtCreate":1639453814701,"gmtModify":1639453839140,"author":{"id":3583200328045278,"idStr":"3583200328045278","authorId":3583200328045278,"authorIdStr":"3583200328045278","name":"Desumond","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc08d7e2c45d77546bd06e1f68129d7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍🏽</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>👍🏽</p></body></html>","text":"👍🏽","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607097591","repostId":2191841329,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191841329","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639452680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191841329?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191841329","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche ","content":"<p>'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行的一份报告称，通胀历来对盈利呈中性，但对市盈率呈负值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7803ce34d9ebaddbf2c083be3d67a2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500指数于2021年12月10日收于历史新高。克里斯·洪德罗斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部表示，标普500“极高”的历史估值使该指数接近跨越八十多年的“价格升值趋势通道”的上限，但广泛的股票基准仍可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.</p><p><blockquote>该行策略师在12月10日的一份研究报告中写道，美国股指“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”。报告中的一张图表显示：“只有在20世纪30年代末和90年代末才会更高，当时它才会上升。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4fc2a69934ea51cf28c489fdfd23d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行12月研究报告。10, 2021</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，标普500 12月10日收于4,712.02点的历史新高，今年有望上涨24%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.</p><p><blockquote>德银策略师预计该指数明年将继续攀升，指出盈利增长，并在报告中表示，股票回购应有助于保持标普500的强劲回报，特别是在2022年上半年。根据他们的研究报告，到明年年底，标普500的目标价格为5,250英镑。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&P 500 target of 5,000.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部是投资银行部门的一部分。另外，该银行财富管理部门首席投资办公室于12月6日发布了2022年展望报告，显示标普500目标为5,000人。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the S&P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行12月10日的研究报告称，“对于标普500来说，我们预计2022年盈利将增长10%，达到230美元”，策略师们提到了他们的每股收益预测。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“从历史上看，通胀对盈利来说是中性的，但对市盈率来说是负的。”在疫情期间生活成本飙升的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations for the S&P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>德银研究报告称，标普500指数的估值“极高”。策略师们写道：“几乎所有指标的股票估值都处于97-100个百分点，不包括20世纪90年代的科技泡沫时期，即使包括该时期，按百分位数计算也远远超过了90年代。”</blockquote></p><p> Their 2022 forecast for the S&P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.</p><p><blockquote>12月10日的研究报告显示，他们对标普500 2022年的预测意味着过去12个月的市盈率为22.8。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.</p><p><blockquote>策略师警告称：“由于盈利已经恢复到高于趋势水平（通常标志着周期峰值和股票估值处于历史高位），股市前景看起来比通常情况下面临更大程度的不确定性和更广泛的可能结果。”</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，美国股指周一收低，标普500收盘下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHighly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行的一份报告称，通胀历来对盈利呈中性，但对市盈率呈负值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7803ce34d9ebaddbf2c083be3d67a2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500指数于2021年12月10日收于历史新高。克里斯·洪德罗斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部表示，标普500“极高”的历史估值使该指数接近跨越八十多年的“价格升值趋势通道”的上限，但广泛的股票基准仍可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.</p><p><blockquote>该行策略师在12月10日的一份研究报告中写道，美国股指“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”。报告中的一张图表显示：“只有在20世纪30年代末和90年代末才会更高，当时它才会上升。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4fc2a69934ea51cf28c489fdfd23d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行12月研究报告。10, 2021</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，标普500 12月10日收于4,712.02点的历史新高，今年有望上涨24%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.</p><p><blockquote>德银策略师预计该指数明年将继续攀升，指出盈利增长，并在报告中表示，股票回购应有助于保持标普500的强劲回报，特别是在2022年上半年。根据他们的研究报告，到明年年底，标普500的目标价格为5,250英镑。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&P 500 target of 5,000.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部是投资银行部门的一部分。另外，该银行财富管理部门首席投资办公室于12月6日发布了2022年展望报告，显示标普500目标为5,000人。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the S&P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行12月10日的研究报告称，“对于标普500来说，我们预计2022年盈利将增长10%，达到230美元”，策略师们提到了他们的每股收益预测。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“从历史上看，通胀对盈利来说是中性的，但对市盈率来说是负的。”在疫情期间生活成本飙升的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations for the S&P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>德银研究报告称，标普500指数的估值“极高”。策略师们写道：“几乎所有指标的股票估值都处于97-100个百分点，不包括20世纪90年代的科技泡沫时期，即使包括该时期，按百分位数计算也远远超过了90年代。”</blockquote></p><p> Their 2022 forecast for the S&P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.</p><p><blockquote>12月10日的研究报告显示，他们对标普500 2022年的预测意味着过去12个月的市盈率为22.8。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.</p><p><blockquote>策略师警告称：“由于盈利已经恢复到高于趋势水平（通常标志着周期峰值和股票估值处于历史高位），股市前景看起来比通常情况下面临更大程度的不确定性和更广泛的可能结果。”</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，美国股指周一收低，标普500收盘下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-valued-s-p-500-index-is-near-the-top-of-its-85-year-trend-channel-says-deutsche-bank-11639432105?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","DB":"德意志银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4566":"资本集团",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-valued-s-p-500-index-is-near-the-top-of-its-85-year-trend-channel-says-deutsche-bank-11639432105?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191841329","content_text":"'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report\nThe S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images\nThe S&P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.\nThe U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.\nDEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021\nThe S&P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.\nDeutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.\nDeutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&P 500 target of 5,000.\n\"For the S&P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.\n\"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.\nValuations for the S&P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.\nTheir 2022 forecast for the S&P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.\n\"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.\nU.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/607097591"}
精彩评论