KLF
2021-12-14
Noted
Apple Stock: It Could Make Sense To Trim The Position<blockquote>苹果股票：削减头寸可能是有意义的</blockquote>
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However, the vicious rally of the p","content":"<p>Apple stock could be a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. However, the vicious rally of the past month may also mean that now is a good time to lock in some gains.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票可能是一个引人注目的长期“买入并持有”股票。不过，过去一个月的恶性反弹也可能意味着，现在是锁定部分涨幅的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock’s recent run has been impressive. Shares traded at nearly $180 in after-hours on Friday, December 10. If the stock price reaches $181.68 soon, per my estimates, Apple will have become the first company ever to be valued at $3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票最近的表现令人印象深刻。12月10日星期五，盘后股价接近180美元。根据我的估计，如果股价很快达到181.68美元，苹果将成为第一家估值达到3万亿美元的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amid investor enthusiasm, however, I fear that AAPL may have moved too fast since mid-November. With the stock having outperformed the tech-rich Nasdaq index by a whopping 19.5 percentage points in the past month, could now be a good time to trim the position and lock in some gains?</p><p><blockquote>然而，在投资者的热情中，我担心苹果公司自11月中旬以来可能行动过快。由于该股过去一个月的表现优于科技股丰富的纳斯达克指数19.5个百分点，现在可能是削减头寸并锁定部分收益的好时机？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL: impressive returns raise a flag</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：令人印象深刻的回报树立了旗帜</b></blockquote></p><p> To start, I should make one thing very clear: in my opinion, Apple stock is a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. In fact, I think that most growth-biased portfolios should be heavily exposed to shares of the Cupertino company, which I believe will outperform the rest of the market over the next, say, decade at least.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我应该非常明确地说明一件事：在我看来，苹果股票是一种引人注目的长期“买入并持有”股票。事实上，我认为大多数偏向增长的投资组合应该大量投资库比蒂诺公司的股票，我相信至少在未来十年内，该公司的表现将优于市场其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I like to keep tabs on short term price behavior as well. After plugging in the numbers, I was astonished to see that AAPL has topped the performance of the Nasdaq (QQQ) over a one-month period by the most since late August 2020: outperformance of +19.5%. For the past decade, AAPL’s December 2021 rally vs. the benchmark has been the second strongest.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我也喜欢密切关注短期价格行为。输入这些数字后，我惊讶地发现AAPL在一个月内的表现超过了纳斯达克(QQQ)，达到了自2020年8月下旬以来的最高水平：跑赢了+19.5%。在过去十年中，AAPL 2021年12月相对于基准的反弹一直是第二强劲的。</blockquote></p><p> Looking into the rearview mirror, this is great news for Apple shareholders. However, one should invest looking into the future. And that’s when the argument for buying Apple stock at $180 apiece today becomes a bit less compelling.</p><p><blockquote>看看后视镜，这对苹果股东来说是个好消息。然而，人们应该着眼于未来进行投资。这时，今天以每股180美元的价格购买苹果股票的论点就变得不那么令人信服了。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the one-month performance of AAPL against QQQ over the past decade. Notice that the stock rarely beats the benchmark over such a short period of time by as much as it has in the past 4 to 5 weeks. The last time that it did, in August of last year, marked a peak in price of $134 that Apple stock still traded at until as recently as June 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了过去十年AAPL与QQQ的一个月表现。请注意，该股很少像过去4到5周那样在如此短的时间内跑赢基准。上一次这样做是在去年8月，当时苹果股票的交易价格达到了134美元的峰值，直到2021年6月。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb283ad281bad9a0c0b1503520c823e3\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: 1-month performance: AAPL vs. QQQ.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：1个月表现：AAPL与QQQ。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>So, will AAPL tank next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，苹果接下来会崩溃吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, none of the above means that Apple stock will likely nosedive in the foreseeable future. But think of investing like a game of blackjack. A player will certainly want to stand at 20 if the dealer’s up card is a 5, for example. Does it mean that, by doing so, the player is guaranteed to win that hand? No, it only means that the odds favor him or her.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，上述情况并不意味着苹果股价在可预见的未来可能会暴跌。但是把投资想象成一场21点游戏。例如，如果庄家的向上牌是5，玩家肯定会想站在20。这是否意味着，通过这样做，玩家一定会赢得那手牌？不，这只意味着胜算对他或她有利。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, buying Apple when the stock has handily outperformed the Nasdaq over the previous month has historically been disadvantageous. For example: over the past decade, AAPL has produced average one-year returns of +29%, assuming the stock is bought on any random day.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当苹果股票在过去一个月轻松跑赢纳斯达克时买入该股历来是不利的。例如：在过去十年中，假设在任意一天购买该股票，AAPL的平均一年回报率为+29%。</blockquote></p><p> However, this number would have been much lower if shares were bought on strength against the Nasdaq: only +8%, on average, following one-month outperformance of 10% or more against the benchmark. On the other end of the spectrum, average one-year return in AAPL would have been a much better +39% following one-month underperformance of -10% or worse against QQQ.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果针对纳斯达克强势买入股票，这个数字会低得多：在一个月的表现优于基准10%或更多之后，平均仅+8%。另一方面，在QQQ一个月表现不佳-10%或更差之后，AAPL的平均一年回报率会好得多，为+39%。</blockquote></p><p> The observations above are consistent with the strategy of buying a stock on weakness to take advantage of an eventual rebound; and selling it on strength to lock in gains, some of which could have been produced by irrational bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>上述观察与逢低买入股票以利用最终反弹的策略是一致的；并强势抛售以锁定收益，其中一些收益可能是由非理性看涨产生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Panic and sell AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐慌并出售AAPL？</b></blockquote></p><p> At this point, I should reemphasize that I remain an Apple bull. I would not sell all my stake in the company only because the share price climbed from $150 to $180 as quickly as it has.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，我应该再次强调，我仍然是苹果多头。我不会仅仅因为股价从150美元迅速攀升至180美元就出售我在该公司的所有股份。</blockquote></p><p> However, I believe that now is a good time to think about rebalancing the portfolio. It seems prudent to me, following the recent rally, that some AAPL trimming and reallocation into other high-quality names would take place during this moment of strength in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为现在是考虑重新平衡投资组合的好时机。在我看来，在最近的反弹之后，在该股走强的时刻，苹果公司将进行一些削减并重新分配到其他高质量的股票中，这似乎是谨慎的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: It Could Make Sense To Trim The Position<blockquote>苹果股票：削减头寸可能是有意义的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: It Could Make Sense To Trim The Position<blockquote>苹果股票：削减头寸可能是有意义的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock could be a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. However, the vicious rally of the past month may also mean that now is a good time to lock in some gains.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票可能是一个引人注目的长期“买入并持有”股票。不过，过去一个月的恶性反弹也可能意味着，现在是锁定部分涨幅的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock’s recent run has been impressive. Shares traded at nearly $180 in after-hours on Friday, December 10. If the stock price reaches $181.68 soon, per my estimates, Apple will have become the first company ever to be valued at $3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票最近的表现令人印象深刻。12月10日星期五，盘后股价接近180美元。根据我的估计，如果股价很快达到181.68美元，苹果将成为第一家估值达到3万亿美元的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amid investor enthusiasm, however, I fear that AAPL may have moved too fast since mid-November. With the stock having outperformed the tech-rich Nasdaq index by a whopping 19.5 percentage points in the past month, could now be a good time to trim the position and lock in some gains?</p><p><blockquote>然而，在投资者的热情中，我担心苹果公司自11月中旬以来可能行动过快。由于该股过去一个月的表现优于科技股丰富的纳斯达克指数19.5个百分点，现在可能是削减头寸并锁定部分收益的好时机？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL: impressive returns raise a flag</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：令人印象深刻的回报树立了旗帜</b></blockquote></p><p> To start, I should make one thing very clear: in my opinion, Apple stock is a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. In fact, I think that most growth-biased portfolios should be heavily exposed to shares of the Cupertino company, which I believe will outperform the rest of the market over the next, say, decade at least.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我应该非常明确地说明一件事：在我看来，苹果股票是一种引人注目的长期“买入并持有”股票。事实上，我认为大多数偏向增长的投资组合应该大量投资库比蒂诺公司的股票，我相信至少在未来十年内，该公司的表现将优于市场其他公司。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I like to keep tabs on short term price behavior as well. After plugging in the numbers, I was astonished to see that AAPL has topped the performance of the Nasdaq (QQQ) over a one-month period by the most since late August 2020: outperformance of +19.5%. For the past decade, AAPL’s December 2021 rally vs. the benchmark has been the second strongest.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我也喜欢密切关注短期价格行为。输入这些数字后，我惊讶地发现AAPL在一个月内的表现超过了纳斯达克(QQQ)，达到了自2020年8月下旬以来的最高水平：跑赢了+19.5%。在过去十年中，AAPL 2021年12月相对于基准的反弹一直是第二强劲的。</blockquote></p><p> Looking into the rearview mirror, this is great news for Apple shareholders. However, one should invest looking into the future. And that’s when the argument for buying Apple stock at $180 apiece today becomes a bit less compelling.</p><p><blockquote>看看后视镜，这对苹果股东来说是个好消息。然而，人们应该着眼于未来进行投资。这时，今天以每股180美元的价格购买苹果股票的论点就变得不那么令人信服了。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the one-month performance of AAPL against QQQ over the past decade. Notice that the stock rarely beats the benchmark over such a short period of time by as much as it has in the past 4 to 5 weeks. The last time that it did, in August of last year, marked a peak in price of $134 that Apple stock still traded at until as recently as June 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了过去十年AAPL与QQQ的一个月表现。请注意，该股很少像过去4到5周那样在如此短的时间内跑赢基准。上一次这样做是在去年8月，当时苹果股票的交易价格达到了134美元的峰值，直到2021年6月。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb283ad281bad9a0c0b1503520c823e3\" tg-width=\"787\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: 1-month performance: AAPL vs. QQQ.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：1个月表现：AAPL与QQQ。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>So, will AAPL tank next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，苹果接下来会崩溃吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, none of the above means that Apple stock will likely nosedive in the foreseeable future. But think of investing like a game of blackjack. A player will certainly want to stand at 20 if the dealer’s up card is a 5, for example. Does it mean that, by doing so, the player is guaranteed to win that hand? No, it only means that the odds favor him or her.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，上述情况并不意味着苹果股价在可预见的未来可能会暴跌。但是把投资想象成一场21点游戏。例如，如果庄家的向上牌是5，玩家肯定会想站在20。这是否意味着，通过这样做，玩家一定会赢得那手牌？不，这只意味着胜算对他或她有利。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, buying Apple when the stock has handily outperformed the Nasdaq over the previous month has historically been disadvantageous. For example: over the past decade, AAPL has produced average one-year returns of +29%, assuming the stock is bought on any random day.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当苹果股票在过去一个月轻松跑赢纳斯达克时买入该股历来是不利的。例如：在过去十年中，假设在任意一天购买该股票，AAPL的平均一年回报率为+29%。</blockquote></p><p> However, this number would have been much lower if shares were bought on strength against the Nasdaq: only +8%, on average, following one-month outperformance of 10% or more against the benchmark. On the other end of the spectrum, average one-year return in AAPL would have been a much better +39% following one-month underperformance of -10% or worse against QQQ.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果针对纳斯达克强势买入股票，这个数字会低得多：在一个月的表现优于基准10%或更多之后，平均仅+8%。另一方面，在QQQ一个月表现不佳-10%或更差之后，AAPL的平均一年回报率会好得多，为+39%。</blockquote></p><p> The observations above are consistent with the strategy of buying a stock on weakness to take advantage of an eventual rebound; and selling it on strength to lock in gains, some of which could have been produced by irrational bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>上述观察与逢低买入股票以利用最终反弹的策略是一致的；并强势抛售以锁定收益，其中一些收益可能是由非理性看涨产生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Panic and sell AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐慌并出售AAPL？</b></blockquote></p><p> At this point, I should reemphasize that I remain an Apple bull. I would not sell all my stake in the company only because the share price climbed from $150 to $180 as quickly as it has.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，我应该再次强调，我仍然是苹果多头。我不会仅仅因为股价从150美元迅速攀升至180美元就出售我在该公司的所有股份。</blockquote></p><p> However, I believe that now is a good time to think about rebalancing the portfolio. It seems prudent to me, following the recent rally, that some AAPL trimming and reallocation into other high-quality names would take place during this moment of strength in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为现在是考虑重新平衡投资组合的好时机。在我看来，在最近的反弹之后，在该股走强的时刻，苹果公司将进行一些削减并重新分配到其他高质量的股票中，这似乎是谨慎的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-make-sense-to-trim-the-position\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-make-sense-to-trim-the-position","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199650124","content_text":"Apple stock could be a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. However, the vicious rally of the past month may also mean that now is a good time to lock in some gains.\nApple stock’s recent run has been impressive. Shares traded at nearly $180 in after-hours on Friday, December 10. If the stock price reaches $181.68 soon, per my estimates, Apple will have become the first company ever to be valued at $3 trillion.\nAmid investor enthusiasm, however, I fear that AAPL may have moved too fast since mid-November. With the stock having outperformed the tech-rich Nasdaq index by a whopping 19.5 percentage points in the past month, could now be a good time to trim the position and lock in some gains?\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nAAPL: impressive returns raise a flag\nTo start, I should make one thing very clear: in my opinion, Apple stock is a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. In fact, I think that most growth-biased portfolios should be heavily exposed to shares of the Cupertino company, which I believe will outperform the rest of the market over the next, say, decade at least.\nThat said, I like to keep tabs on short term price behavior as well. After plugging in the numbers, I was astonished to see that AAPL has topped the performance of the Nasdaq (QQQ) over a one-month period by the most since late August 2020: outperformance of +19.5%. For the past decade, AAPL’s December 2021 rally vs. the benchmark has been the second strongest.\nLooking into the rearview mirror, this is great news for Apple shareholders. However, one should invest looking into the future. And that’s when the argument for buying Apple stock at $180 apiece today becomes a bit less compelling.\nThe chart below shows the one-month performance of AAPL against QQQ over the past decade. Notice that the stock rarely beats the benchmark over such a short period of time by as much as it has in the past 4 to 5 weeks. The last time that it did, in August of last year, marked a peak in price of $134 that Apple stock still traded at until as recently as June 2021.\nFigure 2: 1-month performance: AAPL vs. QQQ.\nSo, will AAPL tank next?\nTo be crystal clear, none of the above means that Apple stock will likely nosedive in the foreseeable future. But think of investing like a game of blackjack. A player will certainly want to stand at 20 if the dealer’s up card is a 5, for example. Does it mean that, by doing so, the player is guaranteed to win that hand? No, it only means that the odds favor him or her.\nLikewise, buying Apple when the stock has handily outperformed the Nasdaq over the previous month has historically been disadvantageous. For example: over the past decade, AAPL has produced average one-year returns of +29%, assuming the stock is bought on any random day.\nHowever, this number would have been much lower if shares were bought on strength against the Nasdaq: only +8%, on average, following one-month outperformance of 10% or more against the benchmark. On the other end of the spectrum, average one-year return in AAPL would have been a much better +39% following one-month underperformance of -10% or worse against QQQ.\nThe observations above are consistent with the strategy of buying a stock on weakness to take advantage of an eventual rebound; and selling it on strength to lock in gains, some of which could have been produced by irrational bullishness.\nPanic and sell AAPL?\nAt this point, I should reemphasize that I remain an Apple bull. I would not sell all my stake in the company only because the share price climbed from $150 to $180 as quickly as it has.\nHowever, I believe that now is a good time to think about rebalancing the portfolio. It seems prudent to me, following the recent rally, that some AAPL trimming and reallocation into other high-quality names would take place during this moment of strength in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/607065523"}
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