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2021-12-10

Buy. Don’t wait

Is It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候买入道琼斯指数今年表现最差的3只股票了吗？</blockquote>

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Don’t wait","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605878699","repostId":1122303970,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122303970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639135689,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122303970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候买入道琼斯指数今年表现最差的3只股票了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122303970","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Take a look to see if these dogs of the Dow are worth buying.","content":"The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is an index made up of 30 of the largest and most influential companies on U.S. stock exchanges. The index has historically returned around 7.5% each year, so being up over 15% makes 2021 a year to celebrate.<blockquote>The道琼斯工业平均指数是一个由美国证券交易所30家最大、最具影响力的公司组成的指数。该指数历史上每年的回报率约为7.5%，因此上涨超过15%使2021年成为值得庆祝的一年。</blockquote> Not every stock in the Dow Jones has performed well. The three stocks we'll discuss are all down and have been since the beginning of 2021, despite the index being up so much. We'll look at each one to determine whether they represent an opportunity or are down for a good reason.<blockquote>并非道琼斯指数中的每只股票都表现良好。尽管该指数上涨了很多，但我们将讨论的三只股票自2021年初以来都在下跌。我们将研究每一个，以确定它们是代表一个机会还是有充分理由的。</blockquote> 1. Amgen<blockquote>1.安进</blockquote> Biotech company&nbsp;Amgen&nbsp;has been down about 7% since the beginning of 2021. The company develops and sells drugs aimed at inflammation, cancer, bone health, heart disease, and more.<blockquote>生物技术公司安进自2021年初以来已下跌约7%。该公司开发和销售针对炎症、癌症、骨骼健康、心脏病等疾病的药物。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115c1a57215446a5a83d447ffbb995ca\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image source: Getty Images.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> When a company invents a successful drug, its formula is patented, protecting it from direct competition for many years. Medications can cost millions of dollars to research and develop but can fail when tested in trials. A successful drug sometimes referred to as a blockbuster, can bring in billions in revenue over the length of its patent.<blockquote>当一家公司发明了一种成功的药物时，它的配方就会获得专利，保护它多年来免受直接竞争。药物的研发可能花费数百万美元，但在试验中测试时可能会失败。一种成功的药物有时被称为重磅炸弹，在其专利期限内可以带来数十亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Investors can get a feel for the trajectory of a drug company by following when its key products lose their patent protection. Once this happens, generic competitors flood the market at lower prices, significantly reducing the original drug's sales.<blockquote>投资者可以通过跟踪制药公司的关键产品何时失去专利保护来了解其发展轨迹。一旦发生这种情况，仿制药竞争对手就会以更低的价格涌入市场，从而大幅降低原研药的销量。</blockquote> Many of Amgen's primary products could lose sales when their patents expire:<blockquote>当专利到期时，安进的许多主要产品可能会失去销售：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Enbrel (19% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2029.</li> <li>Prolia (12% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> <li>Otezla (9% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2028.</li> <li>Xgeva (8% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> </ul> The United States has a more-complicated patent system, where drug companies can extend their patents by making minor changes to them. This, combined with the high drug prices charged in the U.S. market, is why domestic sales account for 68% of Amgen's global revenue. As these patents expire over the next decade, the company will&nbsp;need its pipeline to deliver&nbsp;successful products to replace this lost revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>Enbrel（占收入的19%）将于2029年在美国到期。</li><li>Prolia（占收入的12%）将于2025年在美国到期。</li><li>Otezla（占收入的9%）将于2028年在美国到期。</li><li>Xgeva（占收入的8%）将于2025年在美国到期。</li></ul>美国有一个更复杂的专利制度，制药公司可以通过对专利进行微小的修改来延长专利。这一点，再加上美国市场收取的高昂药价，就是为什么国内销售额占安进全球收入的68%。随着这些专利在未来十年到期，该公司将需要其管道来提供成功的产品来弥补收入损失。</blockquote> The stock currently trades at a&nbsp;price-to-earnings ratio&nbsp;(P/E) of 12 using analyst estimates for 2021&nbsp;earnings per share&nbsp;(EPS), far less than its historical average of 17. Analysts are calling for growth of 8% per year over the next three to five years, and pharmaceutical companies face political pressure in the United States due to drug prices. These risks probably justify a discounted valuation, and that's just what the stock offers at these levels.<blockquote>根据分析师对2021年每股收益(EPS)的估计，该股目前的市盈率(P/E)为12，远低于17的历史平均水平。分析师呼吁在未来的三到五年内每年增长8%，制药公司面临着药物价格带来的政治压力。这些风险可能证明了估值贴现的合理性，这也正是该股票在这些水平上能够提供的价值。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 2. Merck<blockquote>2.默克</blockquote> A rival to Amgen,Merck&nbsp;develops drugs for cancer, immunology, and virology, as well as vaccine products, along with a separate business unit that develops drugs for veterinary use. The stock has maintained its 11% decline since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>安进的竞争对手，默克开发癌症、免疫学和病毒学药物以及疫苗产品，以及一个开发兽医用药物的独立业务部门。该股自年初以来一直保持着11%的跌幅。</blockquote> Merck doesn't have a patent cliff that's quite as imminent as Amgen's. Its Januvia/Janumet accounts for about 10% of sales, and its patent expires in 2022, but the patents for the rest of Merck's significant drugs like Keytruda (34% of revenue) and Gardasil (15% of revenue) don't expire until 2028.<blockquote>默克并不像安进那样面临迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其Januvia/Janumet约占销售额的10%，其专利将于2022年到期，但默克其余重要药物如Keytruda（占收入的34%）和Gardasil（占收入的15%）的专利不会到期直到2028年。</blockquote> The company also released positive results from its clinical trials on molnupiravir, a pill that, when taken at the early stages of COVID-19 infection, can reduce the risk of serious illness by 30%. Merck has already agreed to sell more than $2.2 billion in treatments, so as the omicron variant continues to spread, it could give a spark to Merck's business. Rival&nbsp;Pfizer&nbsp;is also bringing a similar pill to market, but there could be&nbsp;enough demand for both to succeedhere.<blockquote>该公司还发布了molnupiravir临床试验的积极结果，molnupiravir是一种在COVID-19感染早期服用的药物，可以将患严重疾病的风险降低30%。默克已经同意出售超过22亿美元的治疗药物，因此随着奥密克戎病毒变种的继续传播，它可能会给默克的业务带来火花。竞争对手辉瑞也将一种类似的药丸推向市场，但两者都可能有足够的需求来取得成功。</blockquote> The stock is trading at a P/E of 11, a significant discount to its historical P/E of 27. Analysts are calling for modest growth of 6% per year over the next three to five years, but that might be conservative due to COVID treatments. Investors might not be factoring in the potential business from the COVID pill, and the valuation markdown could provide a margin of safety.<blockquote>该股目前的市盈率为11，较其历史市盈率27大幅折扣。分析师预计未来三到五年每年温和增长6%，但由于新冠病毒治疗，这可能是保守的。投资者可能不会考虑新冠药物的潜在业务，估值下降可能会提供安全边际。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 3. Verizon Communications<blockquote>3.威瑞森通信</blockquote> Down 14% year to date, telecom company&nbsp;Verizon Communications&nbsp;is among a select few companies that control the wireless networks in the United States. The infrastructure that supports our nationwide phone network costs billions of dollars and took years to build out, so there is a minor threat from outside competition, even with fierce competitors like&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;and&nbsp;T-Mobile.<blockquote>电信公司今年迄今下跌14%Verizon通信是少数几家控制美国无线网络的公司之一。支持我们全国电话网络的基础设施耗资数十亿美元，花了数年时间才建成，因此来自外部竞争的威胁很小，即使有像AT&amp;T和T-Mobile.</blockquote> The stock trades at a P/E of just over 9 based on 2021 EPS estimates. This is a bargain valuation if we look at its historical average, 14. While many would assume that 5G technology would unlock a lot of growth, Verizon has historically been a slow-growing business even with the emergence of 3G and 4G networks over time.<blockquote>根据2021年每股收益预测，该股的市盈率略高于9。如果我们看看其历史平均水平14，这是一个便宜的估值。虽然许多人认为5G技术将带来大量增长，但即使随着时间的推移出现了3G和4G网络，威瑞森在历史上一直是一家增长缓慢的企业。</blockquote> Analysts estimate the company's three-to-five-year EPS growth at around 3% annually. Defensive investors who want a solid dividend can benefit here: It pays a dividend that yields 5% and needs just half of its profits to afford that payment. Investors focused on total returns probably won't get excited about Verizon, even at this reduced valuation.<blockquote>分析师预计该公司三到五年的每股收益年增长率约为3%。想要稳定股息的防御性投资者可以从这里受益：它支付的股息收益率为5%，并且只需要一半的利润就可以支付这笔股息。关注总回报的投资者可能不会对Verizon感到兴奋，即使估值较低。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-down<blockquote>结论：反对</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候买入道琼斯指数今年表现最差的3只股票了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候买入道琼斯指数今年表现最差的3只股票了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-12-10 19:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is an index made up of 30 of the largest and most influential companies on U.S. stock exchanges. The index has historically returned around 7.5% each year, so being up over 15% makes 2021 a year to celebrate.<blockquote>The道琼斯工业平均指数是一个由美国证券交易所30家最大、最具影响力的公司组成的指数。该指数历史上每年的回报率约为7.5%，因此上涨超过15%使2021年成为值得庆祝的一年。</blockquote> Not every stock in the Dow Jones has performed well. The three stocks we'll discuss are all down and have been since the beginning of 2021, despite the index being up so much. We'll look at each one to determine whether they represent an opportunity or are down for a good reason.<blockquote>并非道琼斯指数中的每只股票都表现良好。尽管该指数上涨了很多，但我们将讨论的三只股票自2021年初以来都在下跌。我们将研究每一个，以确定它们是代表一个机会还是有充分理由的。</blockquote> 1. Amgen<blockquote>1.安进</blockquote> Biotech company&nbsp;Amgen&nbsp;has been down about 7% since the beginning of 2021. The company develops and sells drugs aimed at inflammation, cancer, bone health, heart disease, and more.<blockquote>生物技术公司安进自2021年初以来已下跌约7%。该公司开发和销售针对炎症、癌症、骨骼健康、心脏病等疾病的药物。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115c1a57215446a5a83d447ffbb995ca\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image source: Getty Images.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> When a company invents a successful drug, its formula is patented, protecting it from direct competition for many years. Medications can cost millions of dollars to research and develop but can fail when tested in trials. A successful drug sometimes referred to as a blockbuster, can bring in billions in revenue over the length of its patent.<blockquote>当一家公司发明了一种成功的药物时，它的配方就会获得专利，保护它多年来免受直接竞争。药物的研发可能花费数百万美元，但在试验中测试时可能会失败。一种成功的药物有时被称为重磅炸弹，在其专利期限内可以带来数十亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Investors can get a feel for the trajectory of a drug company by following when its key products lose their patent protection. Once this happens, generic competitors flood the market at lower prices, significantly reducing the original drug's sales.<blockquote>投资者可以通过跟踪制药公司的关键产品何时失去专利保护来了解其发展轨迹。一旦发生这种情况，仿制药竞争对手就会以更低的价格涌入市场，从而大幅降低原研药的销量。</blockquote> Many of Amgen's primary products could lose sales when their patents expire:<blockquote>当专利到期时，安进的许多主要产品可能会失去销售：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Enbrel (19% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2029.</li> <li>Prolia (12% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> <li>Otezla (9% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2028.</li> <li>Xgeva (8% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> </ul> The United States has a more-complicated patent system, where drug companies can extend their patents by making minor changes to them. This, combined with the high drug prices charged in the U.S. market, is why domestic sales account for 68% of Amgen's global revenue. As these patents expire over the next decade, the company will&nbsp;need its pipeline to deliver&nbsp;successful products to replace this lost revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>Enbrel（占收入的19%）将于2029年在美国到期。</li><li>Prolia（占收入的12%）将于2025年在美国到期。</li><li>Otezla（占收入的9%）将于2028年在美国到期。</li><li>Xgeva（占收入的8%）将于2025年在美国到期。</li></ul>美国有一个更复杂的专利制度，制药公司可以通过对专利进行微小的修改来延长专利。这一点，再加上美国市场收取的高昂药价，就是为什么国内销售额占安进全球收入的68%。随着这些专利在未来十年到期，该公司将需要其管道来提供成功的产品来弥补收入损失。</blockquote> The stock currently trades at a&nbsp;price-to-earnings ratio&nbsp;(P/E) of 12 using analyst estimates for 2021&nbsp;earnings per share&nbsp;(EPS), far less than its historical average of 17. Analysts are calling for growth of 8% per year over the next three to five years, and pharmaceutical companies face political pressure in the United States due to drug prices. These risks probably justify a discounted valuation, and that's just what the stock offers at these levels.<blockquote>根据分析师对2021年每股收益(EPS)的估计，该股目前的市盈率(P/E)为12，远低于17的历史平均水平。分析师呼吁在未来的三到五年内每年增长8%，制药公司面临着药物价格带来的政治压力。这些风险可能证明了估值贴现的合理性，这也正是该股票在这些水平上能够提供的价值。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 2. Merck<blockquote>2.默克</blockquote> A rival to Amgen,Merck&nbsp;develops drugs for cancer, immunology, and virology, as well as vaccine products, along with a separate business unit that develops drugs for veterinary use. The stock has maintained its 11% decline since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>安进的竞争对手，默克开发癌症、免疫学和病毒学药物以及疫苗产品，以及一个开发兽医用药物的独立业务部门。该股自年初以来一直保持着11%的跌幅。</blockquote> Merck doesn't have a patent cliff that's quite as imminent as Amgen's. Its Januvia/Janumet accounts for about 10% of sales, and its patent expires in 2022, but the patents for the rest of Merck's significant drugs like Keytruda (34% of revenue) and Gardasil (15% of revenue) don't expire until 2028.<blockquote>默克并不像安进那样面临迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其Januvia/Janumet约占销售额的10%，其专利将于2022年到期，但默克其余重要药物如Keytruda（占收入的34%）和Gardasil（占收入的15%）的专利不会到期直到2028年。</blockquote> The company also released positive results from its clinical trials on molnupiravir, a pill that, when taken at the early stages of COVID-19 infection, can reduce the risk of serious illness by 30%. Merck has already agreed to sell more than $2.2 billion in treatments, so as the omicron variant continues to spread, it could give a spark to Merck's business. Rival&nbsp;Pfizer&nbsp;is also bringing a similar pill to market, but there could be&nbsp;enough demand for both to succeedhere.<blockquote>该公司还发布了molnupiravir临床试验的积极结果，molnupiravir是一种在COVID-19感染早期服用的药物，可以将患严重疾病的风险降低30%。默克已经同意出售超过22亿美元的治疗药物，因此随着奥密克戎病毒变种的继续传播，它可能会给默克的业务带来火花。竞争对手辉瑞也将一种类似的药丸推向市场，但两者都可能有足够的需求来取得成功。</blockquote> The stock is trading at a P/E of 11, a significant discount to its historical P/E of 27. Analysts are calling for modest growth of 6% per year over the next three to five years, but that might be conservative due to COVID treatments. Investors might not be factoring in the potential business from the COVID pill, and the valuation markdown could provide a margin of safety.<blockquote>该股目前的市盈率为11，较其历史市盈率27大幅折扣。分析师预计未来三到五年每年温和增长6%，但由于新冠病毒治疗，这可能是保守的。投资者可能不会考虑新冠药物的潜在业务，估值下降可能会提供安全边际。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 3. Verizon Communications<blockquote>3.威瑞森通信</blockquote> Down 14% year to date, telecom company&nbsp;Verizon Communications&nbsp;is among a select few companies that control the wireless networks in the United States. The infrastructure that supports our nationwide phone network costs billions of dollars and took years to build out, so there is a minor threat from outside competition, even with fierce competitors like&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;and&nbsp;T-Mobile.<blockquote>电信公司今年迄今下跌14%Verizon通信是少数几家控制美国无线网络的公司之一。支持我们全国电话网络的基础设施耗资数十亿美元，花了数年时间才建成，因此来自外部竞争的威胁很小，即使有像AT&amp;T和T-Mobile.</blockquote> The stock trades at a P/E of just over 9 based on 2021 EPS estimates. This is a bargain valuation if we look at its historical average, 14. While many would assume that 5G technology would unlock a lot of growth, Verizon has historically been a slow-growing business even with the emergence of 3G and 4G networks over time.<blockquote>根据2021年每股收益预测，该股的市盈率略高于9。如果我们看看其历史平均水平14，这是一个便宜的估值。虽然许多人认为5G技术将带来大量增长，但即使随着时间的推移出现了3G和4G网络，威瑞森在历史上一直是一家增长缓慢的企业。</blockquote> Analysts estimate the company's three-to-five-year EPS growth at around 3% annually. Defensive investors who want a solid dividend can benefit here: It pays a dividend that yields 5% and needs just half of its profits to afford that payment. Investors focused on total returns probably won't get excited about Verizon, even at this reduced valuation.<blockquote>分析师预计该公司三到五年的每股收益年增长率约为3%。想要稳定股息的防御性投资者可以从这里受益：它支付的股息收益率为5%，并且只需要一半的利润就可以支付这笔股息。关注总回报的投资者可能不会对Verizon感到兴奋，即使估值较低。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-down<blockquote>结论：反对</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/10/is-it-time-to-buy-the-dow-jones-3-worst-performing/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRK":"默沙东","VZ":"Verizon Comms","AMGN":"安进"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/10/is-it-time-to-buy-the-dow-jones-3-worst-performing/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122303970","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index made up of 30 of the largest and most influential companies on U.S. stock exchanges. The index has historically returned around 7.5% each year, so being up over 15% makes 2021 a year to celebrate.\nNot every stock in the Dow Jones has performed well. The three stocks we'll discuss are all down and have been since the beginning of 2021, despite the index being up so much. We'll look at each one to determine whether they represent an opportunity or are down for a good reason.\n1. Amgen\nBiotech company Amgen has been down about 7% since the beginning of 2021. The company develops and sells drugs aimed at inflammation, cancer, bone health, heart disease, and more.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nWhen a company invents a successful drug, its formula is patented, protecting it from direct competition for many years. Medications can cost millions of dollars to research and develop but can fail when tested in trials. A successful drug sometimes referred to as a blockbuster, can bring in billions in revenue over the length of its patent.\nInvestors can get a feel for the trajectory of a drug company by following when its key products lose their patent protection. Once this happens, generic competitors flood the market at lower prices, significantly reducing the original drug's sales.\nMany of Amgen's primary products could lose sales when their patents expire:\n\nEnbrel (19% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2029.\nProlia (12% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.\nOtezla (9% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2028.\nXgeva (8% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.\n\nThe United States has a more-complicated patent system, where drug companies can extend their patents by making minor changes to them. This, combined with the high drug prices charged in the U.S. market, is why domestic sales account for 68% of Amgen's global revenue. As these patents expire over the next decade, the company will need its pipeline to deliver successful products to replace this lost revenue.\nThe stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 12 using analyst estimates for 2021 earnings per share (EPS), far less than its historical average of 17. Analysts are calling for growth of 8% per year over the next three to five years, and pharmaceutical companies face political pressure in the United States due to drug prices. These risks probably justify a discounted valuation, and that's just what the stock offers at these levels.\nVerdict: thumbs-up\n2. Merck\nA rival to Amgen,Merck develops drugs for cancer, immunology, and virology, as well as vaccine products, along with a separate business unit that develops drugs for veterinary use. The stock has maintained its 11% decline since the beginning of the year.\nMerck doesn't have a patent cliff that's quite as imminent as Amgen's. Its Januvia/Janumet accounts for about 10% of sales, and its patent expires in 2022, but the patents for the rest of Merck's significant drugs like Keytruda (34% of revenue) and Gardasil (15% of revenue) don't expire until 2028.\nThe company also released positive results from its clinical trials on molnupiravir, a pill that, when taken at the early stages of COVID-19 infection, can reduce the risk of serious illness by 30%. Merck has already agreed to sell more than $2.2 billion in treatments, so as the omicron variant continues to spread, it could give a spark to Merck's business. Rival Pfizer is also bringing a similar pill to market, but there could be enough demand for both to succeedhere.\nThe stock is trading at a P/E of 11, a significant discount to its historical P/E of 27. Analysts are calling for modest growth of 6% per year over the next three to five years, but that might be conservative due to COVID treatments. Investors might not be factoring in the potential business from the COVID pill, and the valuation markdown could provide a margin of safety.\nVerdict: thumbs-up\n3. Verizon Communications\nDown 14% year to date, telecom company Verizon Communications is among a select few companies that control the wireless networks in the United States. The infrastructure that supports our nationwide phone network costs billions of dollars and took years to build out, so there is a minor threat from outside competition, even with fierce competitors like AT&T and T-Mobile.\nThe stock trades at a P/E of just over 9 based on 2021 EPS estimates. This is a bargain valuation if we look at its historical average, 14. While many would assume that 5G technology would unlock a lot of growth, Verizon has historically been a slow-growing business even with the emergence of 3G and 4G networks over time.\nAnalysts estimate the company's three-to-five-year EPS growth at around 3% annually. Defensive investors who want a solid dividend can benefit here: It pays a dividend that yields 5% and needs just half of its profits to afford that payment. Investors focused on total returns probably won't get excited about Verizon, even at this reduced valuation.\nVerdict: thumbs-down","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VZ":0.9,"AMGN":0.9,"MRK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2074,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605878699"}