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2021-12-10

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The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":605340913,"tweetId":"605340913","gmtCreate":1639120410049,"gmtModify":1639120544365,"author":{"id":4095579130569330,"idStr":"4095579130569330","authorId":4095579130569330,"authorIdStr":"4095579130569330","name":"JiakFree","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46f9c13d37375dabe3dd492443251494","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>OMG</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>OMG</body></html>","text":"OMG","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605340913","repostId":1173696854,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173696854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639100666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173696854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 09:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173696854","media":"Fortune","summary":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will be","content":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.<blockquote>20XX年10月。那不是错别字。为了对下一次衰退何时开始做出最佳猜测，我们需要了解美联储如何创造不可持续的繁荣，以及为什么下一次萧条可能就在眼前。</blockquote> A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.<blockquote>需要注意的是。正如物理学家尼尔斯·玻尔（Niels Bohr）所说：“预测是非常困难的，尤其是如果它是关于未来的。”尽管如此，我会无所畏惧地用我的10美分来权衡。美联储的通胀政策使我的两美分增加了五倍。也许下一个加密货币即将出现：我的10美分。</blockquote> If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?<blockquote>如果一只狗可以拥有加密货币，为什么一位退休的金融学教授不能拥有加密货币呢？他在1976年春天警告公众，由于美联储的通胀政策，价格即将加速上涨？</blockquote> Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!<blockquote>1976年消费价格上涨5.7%，1977年上涨6.5%，1978年上涨7.6%，1979年上涨11.3%，1980年上涨13.5%。谈论金钱是正确的！</blockquote> As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.<blockquote>由于通货膨胀在他的总统任期内肆虐，时任总统吉米·卡特于1979年任命前银行家和美国财政部官员保罗·沃尔克来阻止多年的价格螺旋式上升。沃尔克取得了惊人的成功。1981年消费者价格上涨10.3%，揭示了在美联储紧缩货币政策杀死通胀巨龙之前，通胀势头如何持续一段时间。1982年物价上涨6.1%，1983年上涨3.2%，1986年（奇迹中的奇迹）仅上涨1.9%，一年前沃尔克卸任美联储主席，由艾伦·格林斯潘接任。</blockquote> To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.<blockquote>为了实现当时由于高通胀预期而被认为不太可能实现的目标，沃尔克领导的美联储在1980年12月之前将联邦基金利率（银行相互借入隔夜贷款的利率）提高到22%。沃尔克为阻止美元下滑所必需的紧缩货币政策的代价是连续的衰退：1980年的短暂衰退，然后是1981-1982年的另一次衰退。可以说，发生了一次长期衰退，实际上持续了三年，从1980年1月到1982年11月。</blockquote> Pinpointing the moment<blockquote>精确定位时刻</blockquote> One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.<blockquote>周期性衰退的最佳领先指标之一是失业率，失业率在1980年经济衰退前几个月的1979年5月达到周期性底部（5.6%），直到1982年11月才达到峰值（10.8%）。失业率一直在下降，直到1990年下一次裁员开始加速。</blockquote> Currently,the unemployment rate&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.<blockquote>目前，失业率自2020年初的封锁高峰以来一直在下降，并已达到历史上标志着周期性繁荣结束的水平。封锁无疑扭曲了失业率，但历史模式表明，当失业率接近3%然后上升时，衰退将很快开始。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The yield curve&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.<blockquote>收益率曲线是最广泛关注的金融指标之一，预示着通常在一年内出现衰退。收益率曲线揭示了短期和长期利率之间的关系。通常情况下，收益率曲线是向上倾斜的，就像今天一样，当短期利率低于长期利率时，反映了金融市场中大量的流动性。</blockquote> When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.<blockquote>当美联储担心经济“过热”时，它往往会提高联邦基金利率以冷却价格通胀，这种情况发生在2000年互联网泡沫和2007年房地产泡沫破裂之前。收益率曲线在2019年底几乎倒挂，表明经济衰退将在2020年某个时候开始。然而，为应对新冠肺炎而实施的封锁导致了2020年初的经济衰退，而不是典型的周期性衰退。</blockquote> Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.<blockquote>现在经济正处于另一次周期性上升，因为美联储注入了4万亿美元的流动性来“模拟”经济。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最近一次会议上，决定将每月购买量从1200亿美元减少到1050亿美元。换句话说，即使通胀率最近同比突破6%，美联储仍将继续踩在货币踏板上。过去，通胀加速会敲响美联储加息的警钟，以抑制通胀压力和预期。目前，美联储的想法是价格通胀是“暂时性的”，因此不必收紧货币政策。</blockquote> My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.<blockquote>因此，我无畏的预测是：2022年通胀将加速。然后，公众对物价飞涨的强烈抗议以及媒体报道强调物价如何摧毁普通家庭的购买力，可能会导致拜登政府像尼克松总统在1971年那样实施工资价格控制，以在1972年连任竞选前消除通货膨胀的刺痛。如果国会不赋予拜登实施价格控制的法定权力，他可以使用行政命令。</blockquote> Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.<blockquote>如果没有价格控制，我预计美联储将在2022年某个时候提高联邦基金利率，并在2023年继续收紧。因此，下一次衰退可能会在2023年秋季开始，但不会晚于一年后。如果衰退没有如期开始，只意味着它被推迟了，而不是被消除了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst<blockquote>下一次衰退：“一切泡沫”何时破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nFortune2021-12-10 09:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.<blockquote>20XX年10月。那不是错别字。为了对下一次衰退何时开始做出最佳猜测，我们需要了解美联储如何创造不可持续的繁荣，以及为什么下一次萧条可能就在眼前。</blockquote> A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.<blockquote>需要注意的是。正如物理学家尼尔斯·玻尔（Niels Bohr）所说：“预测是非常困难的，尤其是如果它是关于未来的。”尽管如此，我会无所畏惧地用我的10美分来权衡。美联储的通胀政策使我的两美分增加了五倍。也许下一个加密货币即将出现：我的10美分。</blockquote> If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who&nbsp;warned the public&nbsp;that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?<blockquote>如果一只狗可以拥有加密货币，为什么一位退休的金融学教授不能拥有加密货币呢？他在1976年春天警告公众，由于美联储的通胀政策，价格即将加速上涨？</blockquote> Consumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!<blockquote>1976年消费价格上涨5.7%，1977年上涨6.5%，1978年上涨7.6%，1979年上涨11.3%，1980年上涨13.5%。谈论金钱是正确的！</blockquote> As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.<blockquote>由于通货膨胀在他的总统任期内肆虐，时任总统吉米·卡特于1979年任命前银行家和美国财政部官员保罗·沃尔克来阻止多年的价格螺旋式上升。沃尔克取得了惊人的成功。1981年消费者价格上涨10.3%，揭示了在美联储紧缩货币政策杀死通胀巨龙之前，通胀势头如何持续一段时间。1982年物价上涨6.1%，1983年上涨3.2%，1986年（奇迹中的奇迹）仅上涨1.9%，一年前沃尔克卸任美联储主席，由艾伦·格林斯潘接任。</blockquote> To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed&nbsp;raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.<blockquote>为了实现当时由于高通胀预期而被认为不太可能实现的目标，沃尔克领导的美联储在1980年12月之前将联邦基金利率（银行相互借入隔夜贷款的利率）提高到22%。沃尔克为阻止美元下滑所必需的紧缩货币政策的代价是连续的衰退：1980年的短暂衰退，然后是1981-1982年的另一次衰退。可以说，发生了一次长期衰退，实际上持续了三年，从1980年1月到1982年11月。</blockquote> Pinpointing the moment<blockquote>精确定位时刻</blockquote> One of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.<blockquote>周期性衰退的最佳领先指标之一是失业率，失业率在1980年经济衰退前几个月的1979年5月达到周期性底部（5.6%），直到1982年11月才达到峰值（10.8%）。失业率一直在下降，直到1990年下一次裁员开始加速。</blockquote> Currently,the unemployment rate&nbsp;has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the&nbsp;historical pattern&nbsp;reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.<blockquote>目前，失业率自2020年初的封锁高峰以来一直在下降，并已达到历史上标志着周期性繁荣结束的水平。封锁无疑扭曲了失业率，但历史模式表明，当失业率接近3%然后上升时，衰退将很快开始。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746377b702eacfdfaa019222f8161b85\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The yield curve&nbsp;is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.<blockquote>收益率曲线是最广泛关注的金融指标之一，预示着通常在一年内出现衰退。收益率曲线揭示了短期和长期利率之间的关系。通常情况下，收益率曲线是向上倾斜的，就像今天一样，当短期利率低于长期利率时，反映了金融市场中大量的流动性。</blockquote> When the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was&nbsp;virtually inverted&nbsp;at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.<blockquote>当美联储担心经济“过热”时，它往往会提高联邦基金利率以冷却价格通胀，这种情况发生在2000年互联网泡沫和2007年房地产泡沫破裂之前。收益率曲线在2019年底几乎倒挂，表明经济衰退将在2020年某个时候开始。然而，为应对新冠肺炎而实施的封锁导致了2020年初的经济衰退，而不是典型的周期性衰退。</blockquote> Now the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein&nbsp;jected $4 trillion&nbsp;of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.<blockquote>现在经济正处于另一次周期性上升，因为美联储注入了4万亿美元的流动性来“模拟”经济。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最近一次会议上，决定将每月购买量从1200亿美元减少到1050亿美元。换句话说，即使通胀率最近同比突破6%，美联储仍将继续踩在货币踏板上。过去，通胀加速会敲响美联储加息的警钟，以抑制通胀压力和预期。目前，美联储的想法是价格通胀是“暂时性的”，因此不必收紧货币政策。</blockquote> My fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.<blockquote>因此，我无畏的预测是：2022年通胀将加速。然后，公众对物价飞涨的强烈抗议以及媒体报道强调物价如何摧毁普通家庭的购买力，可能会导致拜登政府像尼克松总统在1971年那样实施工资价格控制，以在1972年连任竞选前消除通货膨胀的刺痛。如果国会不赋予拜登实施价格控制的法定权力，他可以使用行政命令。</blockquote> Without price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.<blockquote>如果没有价格控制，我预计美联储将在2022年某个时候提高联邦基金利率，并在2023年继续收紧。因此，下一次衰退可能会在2023年秋季开始，但不会晚于一年后。如果衰退没有如期开始，只意味着它被推迟了，而不是被消除了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html\">Fortune</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-everything-bubble-burst-120100109.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173696854","content_text":"In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.\nA caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.\nIf a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?\nConsumerprices rose5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!\nAs inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.\nTo accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.\nPinpointing the moment\nOne of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn is the unemployment rate, which reached a cyclical bottom in May 1979 (5.6%) several months before the 1980 recession and didn’t peak until November 1982 (10.8%). The unemployment rate declined until the next upturn in layoffs began to accelerate in 1990.\nCurrently,the unemployment rate has been declining from the lockdown peak of early 2020 and has reached levels that historically have signaled the beginning of the end of a cyclical boom. Lockdowns have undoubtedly distorted the unemployment rate, but the historical pattern reveals that when the unemployment rate nears three percent and then turns up, a recession will soon begin.\n\nThe yield curve is one of the most widely followed financial indicators that portend a recession usually within a year. The yield curve reveals the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. Typically, the yield curve is upward sloping, like today, when short-term rates are below long-term rates, reflecting a substantial amount of liquidity in the financial markets.\nWhen the Fed becomes concerned that the economy is “overheating,” it tends to raise the Fed Funds Rate to cool down price inflation, which occurred prior to the bursting of both the 2000 dotcom bubble and the 2007 housing bubble. The yield curve was virtually inverted at the end of 2019, suggesting that a recession would begin sometime in 2020. However, the lockdowns in response to COVID-19 caused an economic downturn in early 2020, not a typical cyclical recession.\nNow the economy is in another cyclical upswing because the Federal Reservein jected $4 trillion of liquidity to “simulate” the economy. At the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it was decided to reduce monthly purchases from $120 billion to $105 billion. In other words, the Fed will continue to have its foot on the monetary pedal even as the inflation rate recently topped 6% year over year. In the past accelerating inflation would set off alarm bells at the Fed to raise interest rates to dampen inflationary pressure and expectations. Currently, the thinking at the Fed is that price inflation is “transitory” and therefore monetary policy does not have to be tightened.\nMy fearless forecast, therefore, is: Inflation accelerates in 2022. Then, the public outcry over skyrocketing prices and the media reports highlighting how prices are decimating the average family’s purchasing power may cause the Biden administration to impose wage-price controls as President Nixon did in 1971 to take the sting out of inflation before his 1972 reelection campaign. Biden could use an executive order if Congress doesn’t give him statutory authority to impose price controls.\nWithout price controls, I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3098,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605340913"}