galvinpangg
2021-12-14
Why is that so
Just 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅 5 只股票就占标准普尔上涨的 33%；高盛表示不用担心：公开</blockquote>
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Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"</li> <li><b>Cause and symptom:</b> Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.</li> <li>But \"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"</li> <li>\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"</li> <li><b>Stick with growth, for now.</b> It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.</li> <li>\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.</li> <li>\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"</li> <li>\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"</li> <li>The view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa678c8763cf6466a8a0ca71a1cb59d\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高盛表示，股市广度已急剧收窄，历史上股票回报率低于平均水平并大幅下跌。</li><li>“自 4 月底以来，五只股票占标普500回报率的 51%。微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）、Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）、苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）、英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）和特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）合计占标普500（SP500）（NYSEARCA:SPY）26%年初至今回报率的三分之一以上（920个基点），”美国首席股票策略师大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）及其团队在一份报告中写道。“这些股票对指数回报率的贡献是初始权重的两倍多，按市值计算，目前占标普500的 22%，比年初增长了 4 个百分点”。</li><li><b>病因和症状：</b>科斯汀表示，在经历了一段类似的市场广度之后，“股市历来表现出低于平均水平的回报和更深的回撤”。</li><li>但“从历史上看，广度的持续增长需要额外的 4 个月时间，市场领导地位才会向之前的落后者转变，”他说。“创纪录的指数集中度既是市场狭窄的原因，也是症状。”</li><li>“过去 7 年，该指数中 10 只最大股票的市值权重每年都在增加，目前达到 31%，这是至少 1980 年以来的最高水平。”</li><li><b>目前坚持增长。</b>高盛表示，近期不太可能出现衰退，盈利和利润率正在好于预期，名义利率和实际利率将低于历史常态，即使它们有所上升。</li><li>科斯汀补充道：“虽然‘未知未知’造成了最大的提款，而且就其本质而言，无法提前评估，但宏观环境并不表明未来几个月提款风险会增加。”</li><li>“我们继续建议投资者持有高增长、高利润的股票，”他说。“这些股票近几个月来表现良好，如果宽度持续收窄，这种情况应该会继续下去。”</li><li>“与利润率低或负的类似高增长公司相比，此类公司的交易价格仅略有溢价。高利润率是质量的标志，表明在不确定的宏观背景和紧缩的金融环境下，这些股票的表现可能会优于低利润率的同行。”</li><li>这种观点与美国银行的团队不同，他们认为纳斯达克 (COMP.IND) 股票的集中意味着像 2000 年那样抛售 rips。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅 5 只股票就占标准普尔上涨的 33%；高盛表示不用担心：公开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul> <li>Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.</li> <li>\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"</li> <li><b>Cause and symptom:</b> Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.</li> <li>But \"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"</li> <li>\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"</li> <li><b>Stick with growth, for now.</b> It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.</li> <li>\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.</li> <li>\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"</li> <li>\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"</li> <li>The view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa678c8763cf6466a8a0ca71a1cb59d\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高盛表示，股市广度已急剧收窄，历史上股票回报率低于平均水平并大幅下跌。</li><li>“自 4 月底以来，五只股票占标普500回报率的 51%。微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）、Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）、苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）、英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）和特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）合计占标普500（SP500）（NYSEARCA:SPY）26%年初至今回报率的三分之一以上（920个基点），”美国首席股票策略师大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）及其团队在一份报告中写道。“这些股票对指数回报率的贡献是初始权重的两倍多，按市值计算，目前占标普500的 22%，比年初增长了 4 个百分点”。</li><li><b>病因和症状：</b>科斯汀表示，在经历了一段类似的市场广度之后，“股市历来表现出低于平均水平的回报和更深的回撤”。</li><li>但“从历史上看，广度的持续增长需要额外的 4 个月时间，市场领导地位才会向之前的落后者转变，”他说。“创纪录的指数集中度既是市场狭窄的原因，也是症状。”</li><li>“过去 7 年，该指数中 10 只最大股票的市值权重每年都在增加，目前达到 31%，这是至少 1980 年以来的最高水平。”</li><li><b>目前坚持增长。</b>高盛表示，近期不太可能出现衰退，盈利和利润率正在好于预期，名义利率和实际利率将低于历史常态，即使它们有所上升。</li><li>科斯汀补充道：“虽然‘未知未知’造成了最大的提款，而且就其本质而言，无法提前评估，但宏观环境并不表明未来几个月提款风险会增加。”</li><li>“我们继续建议投资者持有高增长、高利润的股票，”他说。“这些股票近几个月来表现良好，如果宽度持续收窄，这种情况应该会继续下去。”</li><li>“与利润率低或负的类似高增长公司相比，此类公司的交易价格仅略有溢价。高利润率是质量的标志，表明在不确定的宏观背景和紧缩的金融环境下，这些股票的表现可能会优于低利润率的同行。”</li><li>这种观点与美国银行的团队不同，他们认为纳斯达克 (COMP.IND) 股票的集中意味着像 2000 年那样抛售 rips。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156796477","content_text":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.\n\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"\nCause and symptom: Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.\nBut \"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"\n\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"\nStick with growth, for now. It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.\n\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.\n\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"\n\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"\nThe view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3596,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604400163"}
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