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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":604351730,"tweetId":"604351730","gmtCreate":1639353950456,"gmtModify":1639353950926,"author":{"id":3565819252889467,"idStr":"3565819252889467","authorId":3565819252889467,"authorIdStr":"3565819252889467","name":"e13v3n","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387ab24895655e32d7ddaf87ded7da37","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":47,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>k</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>k</body></html>","text":"k","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604351730","repostId":1155743884,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155743884","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639353588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155743884?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和提升之路设定了本周美联储会议的主题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155743884","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicke","content":" Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace to taper asset purchases, setting the stage for an earlier rate increase when the central banks' policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.<blockquote>上周的消费者通胀数据强化了美联储将加快缩减资产购买步伐的说法，为各国央行决策者周二和周三开会时提前加息创造条件。</blockquote> Investors will also gain insight on the central bankers' expectations for when rates will rise with the release of the \"Summary of Economic Projections,\" especially the closely watched \"dot-plot.\"<blockquote>随着“经济预测摘要”的发布，尤其是备受关注的“点阵图”，投资者还将深入了解央行行长对何时加息的预期。</blockquote> Expect to see a change in timing for winding down its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. At their November meeting, the Fed said it planned to reduce purchases by $15B per month, setting a pace to end the purchases in mid-2022.<blockquote>预计停止购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的时机将会发生变化。在 11 月的会议上，美联储表示计划每月减少 15B 美元的购买量，并设定了在 2022 年中期结束购买量的步伐。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already said it's time to talk about speeding up the taper by a few months. \"At this point, the economy is very strong\" and inflation is elevated, he said at his testimony in Congress on Nov. 30.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表示，是时候讨论加快缩减规模几个月了。他在 11 月 30 日国会作证时表示，“目前经济非常强劲”，通货膨胀率上升。</blockquote> Since those comments, the November jobs and inflation numbers have come out. The jobs report presented mixed signals, with the number of jobs created last month far below the consensus, but the unemployment rate better than expected (at 4.2%, approaching its prepandemic rate of 3.5%) and an improved labor force participation rate.<blockquote>自从这些评论以来，11月份的就业和通胀数据已经出来。就业报告发出了好坏参半的信号，上个月创造的就业岗位数量远低于市场共识，但失业率好于预期（为4.2%，接近疫情前的3.5%），劳动力参与率有所提高。</blockquote> The consumer price index, which gauges inflation, jumped the most in 39 years in November, but came in about as expected. Especially with the jobs number, keep in mind that month-to-month numbers can be volatile. For example, the number of jobs created in November could be revised up when the December numbers come out in early January.<blockquote>衡量通货膨胀的消费者价格指数在11月份出现了39年来最大的涨幅，但正如预期的那样。尤其是在工作岗位数量方面，请记住，每月的数量可能会波动。例如，当 12 月份的数据在 1 月初公布时，11 月份创造的就业岗位数量可能会上调。</blockquote> The inflation report \"confirms that the Fed is on track to begin hiking rates at some point next year,\" Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo told Bloomberg News. \"I think this keeps them on track to see the dots move up pretty notably when we get the forecast next week.\"<blockquote>富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯 (Sarah House) 告诉彭博新闻社，通胀报告“证实美联储有望在明年某个时候开始加息”。“我认为这让他们有望在下周得到预测时看到这些点明显上升。”</blockquote> The strong November CPI data \"only solidify the case for a faster tapering of asset purchases,\" Rubeela Farooqi, Highway Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, told Reuters. \"More important will be Chair Powell's message on tightening of policy going forward.\"<blockquote>Highway Frequency Economics 首席美国经济学家 Rubeela Farooqi 告诉路透社，强劲的 11 月份 CPI 数据“只会巩固更快缩减资产购买的理由”。“更重要的是鲍威尔主席关于未来收紧政策的信息。”</blockquote> \"I think that their plan right now probably is three rate hikes next year, four rate hikes in 2023,\" David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司首席全球策略师大卫·凯利在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我认为他们目前的计划可能是明年加息三次，2023年加息四次。”</blockquote> In the September meeting dot-plot, most Fed officials expected the first rate increase in 2023, with a few pulling the first rate hike to 2022.<blockquote>在9月份的会议点阵图中，大多数美联储官员预计将在2023年首次加息，少数人将首次加息推迟到2022年。</blockquote> The federal funds rate target range currently stands at 0.0%-0.25%. The central bankers said it expected to increase its Treasury holdings by at least $60B per month and increase it agency MBS holdings by at least $30B month, down from its prior pace of $80B of Treasurys and $40B of MBS in October.<blockquote>联邦基金利率目标区间目前为0.0%-0.25%。央行行长表示，预计每月将增加至少 600 亿美元的国债持有量，每月将增加至少 300 亿美元的机构 MBS 持有量，低于 10 月份 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的 MBS 持有量。</blockquote> The CME FedWatch tool shows that more traders are pulling up their expectation for a rate hike. The probability of a 25-50 basis-point rate hike for the March meeting rises to 34.2%, up from a 25.9% probability a week ago.<blockquote>芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，越来越多的交易员正在提高对加息的预期。3月份会议加息25-50个基点的概率从一周前的25.9%上升至34.2%。</blockquote> The probability of a 25-50 bps hike in May increased to 43.2% from 38.4% a week ago, and there's a 13.1% probability of a 50-75 bps increase.<blockquote>5月份加息25-50个基点的概率从一周前的38.4%上升至43.2%，加息50-75个基点的概率为13.1%。</blockquote> SGH Macro Advisors Chief U.S. Economist Tim Duy sees a \"high probability that the Fed hikes rates in March,\" although he doesn't expect the policymakers will pencil in that timeline on the dot-plot. \"Where the Fed is now and where the Fed is in three months are two different things,\" he wrote in a note dated Dec. 7.<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊 (Tim Duy) 认为“美联储极有可能在 3 月份加息”，尽管他预计政策制定者不会在点阵图上写下这一时间表。他在 12 月 7 日的一份报告中写道：“美联储现在的处境和三个月后的处境是两回事。”</blockquote> SA contributor John M. Mason sees complications in the Fed's taper due to the massive amounts of reverse repurchase agreements it has used to keep the effective federal funds rate positive.<blockquote>SA 撰稿人约翰·M·梅森 (John M. Mason) 认为，由于美联储使用了大量逆回购协议来保持有效联邦基金利率为正，因此美联储缩减规模会变得复杂。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和提升之路设定了本周美联储会议的主题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper pace and path to liftoff set the themes for Fed meeting this week<blockquote>缩减步伐和提升之路设定了本周美联储会议的主题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-12-13 07:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace to taper asset purchases, setting the stage for an earlier rate increase when the central banks' policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.<blockquote>上周的消费者通胀数据强化了美联储将加快缩减资产购买步伐的说法，为各国央行决策者周二和周三开会时提前加息创造条件。</blockquote> Investors will also gain insight on the central bankers' expectations for when rates will rise with the release of the \"Summary of Economic Projections,\" especially the closely watched \"dot-plot.\"<blockquote>随着“经济预测摘要”的发布，尤其是备受关注的“点阵图”，投资者还将深入了解央行行长对何时加息的预期。</blockquote> Expect to see a change in timing for winding down its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. At their November meeting, the Fed said it planned to reduce purchases by $15B per month, setting a pace to end the purchases in mid-2022.<blockquote>预计停止购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的时机将会发生变化。在 11 月的会议上，美联储表示计划每月减少 15B 美元的购买量，并设定了在 2022 年中期结束购买量的步伐。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already said it's time to talk about speeding up the taper by a few months. \"At this point, the economy is very strong\" and inflation is elevated, he said at his testimony in Congress on Nov. 30.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表示，是时候讨论加快缩减规模几个月了。他在 11 月 30 日国会作证时表示，“目前经济非常强劲”，通货膨胀率上升。</blockquote> Since those comments, the November jobs and inflation numbers have come out. The jobs report presented mixed signals, with the number of jobs created last month far below the consensus, but the unemployment rate better than expected (at 4.2%, approaching its prepandemic rate of 3.5%) and an improved labor force participation rate.<blockquote>自从这些评论以来，11月份的就业和通胀数据已经出来。就业报告发出了好坏参半的信号，上个月创造的就业岗位数量远低于市场共识，但失业率好于预期（为4.2%，接近疫情前的3.5%），劳动力参与率有所提高。</blockquote> The consumer price index, which gauges inflation, jumped the most in 39 years in November, but came in about as expected. Especially with the jobs number, keep in mind that month-to-month numbers can be volatile. For example, the number of jobs created in November could be revised up when the December numbers come out in early January.<blockquote>衡量通货膨胀的消费者价格指数在11月份出现了39年来最大的涨幅，但正如预期的那样。尤其是在工作岗位数量方面，请记住，每月的数量可能会波动。例如，当 12 月份的数据在 1 月初公布时，11 月份创造的就业岗位数量可能会上调。</blockquote> The inflation report \"confirms that the Fed is on track to begin hiking rates at some point next year,\" Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo told Bloomberg News. \"I think this keeps them on track to see the dots move up pretty notably when we get the forecast next week.\"<blockquote>富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯 (Sarah House) 告诉彭博新闻社，通胀报告“证实美联储有望在明年某个时候开始加息”。“我认为这让他们有望在下周得到预测时看到这些点明显上升。”</blockquote> The strong November CPI data \"only solidify the case for a faster tapering of asset purchases,\" Rubeela Farooqi, Highway Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, told Reuters. \"More important will be Chair Powell's message on tightening of policy going forward.\"<blockquote>Highway Frequency Economics 首席美国经济学家 Rubeela Farooqi 告诉路透社，强劲的 11 月份 CPI 数据“只会巩固更快缩减资产购买的理由”。“更重要的是鲍威尔主席关于未来收紧政策的信息。”</blockquote> \"I think that their plan right now probably is three rate hikes next year, four rate hikes in 2023,\" David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司首席全球策略师大卫·凯利在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我认为他们目前的计划可能是明年加息三次，2023年加息四次。”</blockquote> In the September meeting dot-plot, most Fed officials expected the first rate increase in 2023, with a few pulling the first rate hike to 2022.<blockquote>在9月份的会议点阵图中，大多数美联储官员预计将在2023年首次加息，少数人将首次加息推迟到2022年。</blockquote> The federal funds rate target range currently stands at 0.0%-0.25%. The central bankers said it expected to increase its Treasury holdings by at least $60B per month and increase it agency MBS holdings by at least $30B month, down from its prior pace of $80B of Treasurys and $40B of MBS in October.<blockquote>联邦基金利率目标区间目前为0.0%-0.25%。央行行长表示，预计每月将增加至少 600 亿美元的国债持有量，每月将增加至少 300 亿美元的机构 MBS 持有量，低于 10 月份 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的 MBS 持有量。</blockquote> The CME FedWatch tool shows that more traders are pulling up their expectation for a rate hike. The probability of a 25-50 basis-point rate hike for the March meeting rises to 34.2%, up from a 25.9% probability a week ago.<blockquote>芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，越来越多的交易员正在提高对加息的预期。3月份会议加息25-50个基点的概率从一周前的25.9%上升至34.2%。</blockquote> The probability of a 25-50 bps hike in May increased to 43.2% from 38.4% a week ago, and there's a 13.1% probability of a 50-75 bps increase.<blockquote>5月份加息25-50个基点的概率从一周前的38.4%上升至43.2%，加息50-75个基点的概率为13.1%。</blockquote> SGH Macro Advisors Chief U.S. Economist Tim Duy sees a \"high probability that the Fed hikes rates in March,\" although he doesn't expect the policymakers will pencil in that timeline on the dot-plot. \"Where the Fed is now and where the Fed is in three months are two different things,\" he wrote in a note dated Dec. 7.<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊 (Tim Duy) 认为“美联储极有可能在 3 月份加息”，尽管他预计政策制定者不会在点阵图上写下这一时间表。他在 12 月 7 日的一份报告中写道：“美联储现在的处境和三个月后的处境是两回事。”</blockquote> SA contributor John M. Mason sees complications in the Fed's taper due to the massive amounts of reverse repurchase agreements it has used to keep the effective federal funds rate positive.<blockquote>SA 撰稿人约翰·M·梅森 (John M. Mason) 认为，由于美联储使用了大量逆回购协议来保持有效联邦基金利率为正，因此美联储缩减规模会变得复杂。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779240-taper-pace-and-path-to-liftoff-set-to-the-themes-for-fed-meeting-this-week\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779240-taper-pace-and-path-to-liftoff-set-to-the-themes-for-fed-meeting-this-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155743884","content_text":"Last week's consumer inflation reading reinforces the narrative that the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace to taper asset purchases, setting the stage for an earlier rate increase when the central banks' policymakers meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nInvestors will also gain insight on the central bankers' expectations for when rates will rise with the release of the \"Summary of Economic Projections,\" especially the closely watched \"dot-plot.\"\nExpect to see a change in timing for winding down its purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. At their November meeting, the Fed said it planned to reduce purchases by $15B per month, setting a pace to end the purchases in mid-2022.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell has already said it's time to talk about speeding up the taper by a few months. \"At this point, the economy is very strong\" and inflation is elevated, he said at his testimony in Congress on Nov. 30.\nSince those comments, the November jobs and inflation numbers have come out. The jobs report presented mixed signals, with the number of jobs created last month far below the consensus, but the unemployment rate better than expected (at 4.2%, approaching its prepandemic rate of 3.5%) and an improved labor force participation rate.\nThe consumer price index, which gauges inflation, jumped the most in 39 years in November, but came in about as expected. Especially with the jobs number, keep in mind that month-to-month numbers can be volatile. For example, the number of jobs created in November could be revised up when the December numbers come out in early January.\nThe inflation report \"confirms that the Fed is on track to begin hiking rates at some point next year,\" Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo told Bloomberg News. \"I think this keeps them on track to see the dots move up pretty notably when we get the forecast next week.\"\nThe strong November CPI data \"only solidify the case for a faster tapering of asset purchases,\" Rubeela Farooqi, Highway Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, told Reuters. \"More important will be Chair Powell's message on tightening of policy going forward.\"\n\"I think that their plan right now probably is three rate hikes next year, four rate hikes in 2023,\" David Kelly, J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.\nIn the September meeting dot-plot, most Fed officials expected the first rate increase in 2023, with a few pulling the first rate hike to 2022.\nThe federal funds rate target range currently stands at 0.0%-0.25%. The central bankers said it expected to increase its Treasury holdings by at least $60B per month and increase it agency MBS holdings by at least $30B month, down from its prior pace of $80B of Treasurys and $40B of MBS in October.\nThe CME FedWatch tool shows that more traders are pulling up their expectation for a rate hike. The probability of a 25-50 basis-point rate hike for the March meeting rises to 34.2%, up from a 25.9% probability a week ago.\nThe probability of a 25-50 bps hike in May increased to 43.2% from 38.4% a week ago, and there's a 13.1% probability of a 50-75 bps increase.\nSGH Macro Advisors Chief U.S. Economist Tim Duy sees a \"high probability that the Fed hikes rates in March,\" although he doesn't expect the policymakers will pencil in that timeline on the dot-plot. \"Where the Fed is now and where the Fed is in three months are two different things,\" he wrote in a note dated Dec. 7.\nSA contributor John M. Mason sees complications in the Fed's taper due to the massive amounts of reverse repurchase agreements it has used to keep the effective federal funds rate positive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3538,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604351730"}