一只没有耳朵一只没有尾巴
09-04
美联储主席还是鲍威尔吗?他不是5月份已经结束任期了吗?
沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”!决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是:鲍威尔?
美联储最新动态:美债集中清算进展领先预期,充裕储备金框架行之有效
追踪美联储政策动态、官员表态与市场解读,帮您第一时间把握美联储货币政策方向与潜在市场机会。
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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SargassoSea
09-04
SargassoSea
文章都不看就只会看个标题
zhevd
09-04
zhevd
**6写文章连换人了都不知道
什么也没有了~
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10:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”!决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是:鲍威尔?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2664738303","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Bianco Research创始人Bianco表示,沃勒已表态倾向维持利率不变,美联储9月议息会议的投票格局目前为6票(维持)对5票(加息),理事鲍威尔的立场尚不明朗,或成“一票定音”的关键人物。距会议不足两周,加息概率实际已接近50/50,鲍威尔的沉默成为不确定性来源。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周,投票格局高度胶着,鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出,除宏观数据的博弈外,投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>我一直认为,观察美联储现在就是在数票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变,Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为:<strong>6票(维持)对5票(加息),还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc8cd5400bbfe6ce21bbc0b92608faf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ae3fd7541fe5a6f68694e7c486b2800\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bianco个人的计票单</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔:刻意低调,却成关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco指出,鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言,“他希望淡出公众视野”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景:特朗普持续批评美联储,令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑,FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>如果所有人都按照公开表态投票,鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">加息概率:实际已是50/50</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco的结论直接而清晰:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候,加息概率实际上已经是50/50。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月30日,他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是<strong>7对5</strong>,但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息,还是7对5维持。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be97558273da267e35b30c2c845a7f72\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>目前,随着沃勒倒向维持阵营,维持派暂时以6对5领先,但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡,令最终结果悬而未决。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco认为,特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示,正是出于对独立性的担忧,FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场,而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式,相对清晰地追踪政策走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自1936年以来,从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推测起来,这意味着维持现状,因为没有达成任何协议,美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然,他们可以同意举行第二次(或第三次)投票,直到打破平局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/049ab18b6937fdedb9e7e7682140ff81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”!决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是:鲍威尔?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”!决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是:鲍威尔?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-04 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周,投票格局高度胶着,鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出,除宏观数据的博弈外,投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>我一直认为,观察美联储现在就是在数票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变,Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为:<strong>6票(维持)对5票(加息),还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc8cd5400bbfe6ce21bbc0b92608faf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ae3fd7541fe5a6f68694e7c486b2800\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bianco个人的计票单</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔:刻意低调,却成关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco指出,鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言,“他希望淡出公众视野”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景:特朗普持续批评美联储,令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑,FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>如果所有人都按照公开表态投票,鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">加息概率:实际已是50/50</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco的结论直接而清晰:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候,加息概率实际上已经是50/50。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月30日,他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是<strong>7对5</strong>,但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息,还是7对5维持。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be97558273da267e35b30c2c845a7f72\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>目前,随着沃勒倒向维持阵营,维持派暂时以6对5领先,但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡,令最终结果悬而未决。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco认为,特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示,正是出于对独立性的担忧,FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场,而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式,相对清晰地追踪政策走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自1936年以来,从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推测起来,这意味着维持现状,因为没有达成任何协议,美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然,他们可以同意举行第二次(或第三次)投票,直到打破平局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/049ab18b6937fdedb9e7e7682140ff81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5009085843fdda4e963c30afad78aaa9","relate_stocks":{"SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","SGOV":"Ishares 0-3 Month Treasury BOND ETF","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","USTB":"VictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF","TMV":"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出,除宏观数据的博弈外,投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道:我一直认为,观察美联储现在就是在数票。随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变,Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为:6票(维持)对5票(加息),还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。Bianco个人的计票单鲍威尔:刻意低调,却成关键变量Bianco指出,鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言,“他希望淡出公众视野”。这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景:特朗普持续批评美联储,令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑,FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。然而,鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道:如果所有人都按照公开表态投票,鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。加息概率:实际已是50/50Bianco的结论直接而清晰:这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候,加息概率实际上已经是50/50。8月30日,他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是7对5,但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息,还是7对5维持。”目前,随着沃勒倒向维持阵营,维持派暂时以6对5领先,但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡,令最终结果悬而未决。Bianco认为,特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。他表示,正是出于对独立性的担忧,FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场,而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式,相对清晰地追踪政策走向。自1936年以来,从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道:推测起来,这意味着维持现状,因为没有达成任何协议,美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然,他们可以同意举行第二次(或第三次)投票,直到打破平局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IEF":2,"SHY":2,"HYG":2,"UBT":2,"TBT":2,"SCHO":2,"US30Y.BOND":2,".DJI":2,"SHV":2,"TLH":2,"US10Y.BOND":2,"NQmain":2,"QQQ":2,"TQQQ":2,"US7Y.BOND":2,"US5Y.BOND":2,"AGG":2,"VIXmain":2,"TMF":2,"BND":2,"VGLT":2,"US3Y.BOND":2,"ESmain":2,"USTB":2,"VGIT":2,"BOXX":2,".SPX":2,"SQQQ":2,"SVIX":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VGSH":2,"EDV":2,"SGOV":2,"TMV":2,"SVXY":0.6,"TLT":2,"YMmain":2,"VXX":2,"TIP":2,".IXIC":2,"US2Y.BOND":2,"US6M.BOND":2,"UVIX":0.6,"VIXY":2,"US12M.BOND":2,"TLTW":2,"VIX":2,"GOVT":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":51,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":604072705246400,"commentId":"604072705246400","gmtCreate":1788515716290,"gmtModify":1788517349337,"authorId":4222425035024332,"author":{"id":4222425035024332,"idStr":"4222425035024332","authorId":4222425035024332,"name":"SargassoSea","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603980616688384,"objectIdStr":"603980616688384","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"文章都不看就只会看个标题","text":"文章都不看就只会看个标题","html":"文章都不看就只会看个标题","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":603995934871768,"commentId":"603995934871768","gmtCreate":1788496996365,"gmtModify":1788501721594,"authorId":4185450054404922,"author":{"id":4185450054404922,"idStr":"4185450054404922","authorId":4185450054404922,"name":"zhevd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":603980616688384,"objectIdStr":"603980616688384","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"**6写文章连换人了都不知道","text":"**6写文章连换人了都不知道","html":"**6写文章连换人了都不知道","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603980616688384"}
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