GANCL
2021-12-01
For long term investment
Disney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为2022年的大赢家</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":603378277,"tweetId":"603378277","gmtCreate":1638370423055,"gmtModify":1638370423542,"author":{"id":3566524239552357,"idStr":"3566524239552357","authorId":3566524239552357,"authorIdStr":"3566524239552357","name":"GANCL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02bdb0309baf16b47e74509dc75824e6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":26,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>For long term investment </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>For long term investment </p></body></html>","text":"For long term investment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603378277","repostId":1100425330,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100425330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638360525,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100425330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为2022年的大赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100425330","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nA wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.\nFears of t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.</li> <li>Fears of the new Covid variant (Omicron) has put further pressure on the stock.</li> <li>That said, we think its time to start looking at the Disney cup as \"half full\" instead of half empty.</li> <li>Disney is one of our top stock picks for 2022.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7c3cef342a5e4c3d39f605d91ebdc8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去几周，迪士尼股票在财报发布后受到了一波负面影响。</li><li>对新冠病毒变种（奥密克戎）的担忧给该股带来了进一步的压力。</li><li>也就是说，我们认为是时候开始将迪士尼杯视为“半满”而不是半空了。</li><li>迪士尼是我们2022年的首选股票之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's always amazing to me how sentiment can shift so quickly on a stock. One minute the glass is \"half full\" and the next minute its \"half empty\". However, this fickleness can provide great opportunities for investors willing to patiently wait for the tide shift again.</p><p><blockquote>我总是很惊讶一只股票的情绪变化如此之快。前一分钟杯子是“半满的”，下一分钟它是“半空的”。然而，这种变化无常可以为愿意耐心等待潮流再次转变的投资者提供巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The Walt Disney Co.(NYSE:DIS)certainly falls into this category right now.</p><p><blockquote>华特迪士尼公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）目前当然属于这一类。</blockquote></p><p> After missing earnings expectations a few weeks ago and renewed Covid fears from the Omicron variant, investors seemed to have put Disney in the penalty box for now...with the shares sinking about 15% since Nov. 8th.</p><p><blockquote>在几周前未达到盈利预期以及奥密克戎变种重新引发对新冠病毒的担忧之后，投资者似乎暂时将迪士尼置于惩罚箱中……自11月8日以来，迪士尼股价已下跌约15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac736e0b67e5440e2f7e0a106b384640\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, we believe that Disney is the exact type of stock that you want to own going into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们相信迪士尼正是您在2022年想要持有的股票类型。</blockquote></p><p> The company has \"re-opening\" exposure from its theme park business and stable recurring revenue (and cash flow) from its Disney+ (and Hulu and ESPN+) business...which we will believe will be a great combination over the next 6-12 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司从其主题公园业务中“重新开放”风险敞口，并从其Disney+（以及Hulu和ESPN+）业务中获得稳定的经常性收入（和现金流）……我们相信这将是一个很好的组合未来6-12个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Walt Disney Co.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华特·迪士尼公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector/Industry:</b>Communication Services / Entertainment</p><p><blockquote><b>部门/行业：</b>通讯服务/娱乐</blockquote></p><p> Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.</p><p><blockquote>华特·迪士尼拥有一些最受全球认可的角色的版权，从米老鼠到卢克·天行者。这些角色和其他角色出现在世界各地的几个迪士尼主题公园里。迪士尼在皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业等工作室旗下制作真人电影和动画电影，还经营包括ESPN和几家电视制作工作室在内的媒体网络。迪士尼最近重组为四个部门，其中一个新部门：直接面向消费者和国际部门。新的部分包括两个已宣布的OTT产品，ESPN+和迪士尼SVOD服务。该计划还将公园和度假村以及消费品这两个部门合二为一。媒体网络集团包括美国有线电视频道和美国广播公司。工作室部门持有电影制作资产。</blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10056a0f8a2d6e40a9cb69271646ca9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Disney currently has average rankings for Safety (5) and Value (6). We'll dig into those rankings below.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼目前在安全性（5）和价值（6）方面的平均排名。我们将在下面深入研究这些排名。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> It's no secret that the pandemic was rough on Disney as its theme park business (which represented over 30% of revenues) essentially shut down overnight. Not to mention the company's reliance on the box office (which also disappeared). Hence the average Safety ranking of 5.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，疫情对迪士尼的打击很大，因为其主题公园业务（占收入的30%以上）基本上在一夜之间关闭。更不用说公司对票房的依赖（票房也消失了）。因此平均安全等级为5。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Disney has fought its way back to profitability and is expected to earn $4.25 per share in fiscal 2022. The company expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $5.73 per share (35% growth) and $7.30 per share (27% growth), respectively as theme parks and theaters remove capacity restrictions. Also, management expects Disney+ subscribers to more than double by 2024 (from ~120 million currently to over 230 million).<i>Note that Disney's fiscal year end is September.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，迪士尼已经努力恢复盈利，预计2022财年每股收益为4.25美元。该公司预计，随着主题公园和影院取消容量限制，2023年和2024年的盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股5.73美元（增长35%）和每股7.30美元（增长27%）。此外，管理层预计到2024年Disney+订阅用户将增加一倍以上（从目前的约1.2亿增加到超过2.3亿）。<i>请注意，迪士尼的财政年度结束是9月。</i></blockquote></p><p> Including Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, Disney currently has ~170 million subscribers. Compared with Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)current subscriber base of ~209 million...Disney's subscriber growth has been nothing short of incredible. In other words, Disney accomplished in 2 years what it took Netflix ~8 years to do!</p><p><blockquote>包括Disney+、Hulu和ESPN+在内，迪士尼目前拥有约1.7亿订阅者。与Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）目前约2.09亿用户群相比……迪士尼的用户增长令人难以置信。换句话说，迪士尼在两年内完成了网飞花了~8年才完成的事情！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536d4caaf3402c40894e85b28c61e3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $16 billion of cash/short-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也非常强劲，拥有160亿美元的现金/短期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation/Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值/上涨潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Disney looks pretty attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (on a forward basis).</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，迪士尼看起来相当有吸引力，目前的交易价格比其所有长期估值指标（远期）都有相当大的折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeab4377d3d8c4ff2e2fb780ff224146\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"240\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Disney is currently trading at 25.6x forward 2023 earnings and 2.9x forward 2023 sales.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，迪士尼目前的市盈率为2023年预期收益的25.6倍，2023年预期销售额的2.9倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, earnings are expected to grow over 25% per year for the next few years...which would favor a little multiple expansion from here.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，预计未来几年盈利每年将增长25%以上……这将有利于从这里开始进行一点倍数扩张。</blockquote></p><p> If you put a 25x-30x multiple on consensus forward earnings of 7.30 per share in 2024, that would equate to a $182.00 - $219.00 stock price (representing 23%-48% upside from current levels)!</p><p><blockquote>如果您将2024年每股7.30的共识预期收益乘以25-30倍，则相当于股价为182.00-219.00美元（较当前水平上涨23%-48%）！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金抵押认沽分析</b></blockquote></p><p> While we believe that Disney is a \"strong buy\" at current levels, if you are concerned about more downside volatility ahead, we also love the risk/reward profile of the cash-secured puts.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为迪士尼在当前水平上是“强力买入”，但如果您担心未来会出现更多下行波动，我们也喜欢现金担保看跌期权的风险/回报状况。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> The downside with a cash-secured put is that you are obligated to buy the stock at the strike price (which in most circumstances ends up being a good trade).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul>现金担保看跌期权的缺点是您有义务以执行价格购买股票（在大多数情况下，这最终是一笔不错的交易）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Disney. We're focused on the January monthly contract that expires on 1/21/22.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看迪士尼的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是1月21日/22日到期的1月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b72516013aa678d6304de63305b1c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, we believe that the $140 level could hold as long-tern support here. So we really like the following cash-secured put:</p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，我们认为140美元的水平可能会成为长期支撑。因此，我们非常喜欢以下现金担保看跌期权：</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>DIS Jan 21st $140.00 Put (53 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>DIS 1月21日140.00美元看跌期权（距离到期还有53天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$3.10 premium</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：约3.10美元溢价</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)</p><p><blockquote><li>平均月收益率%：1.3%（年化15.6%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: 5.3%</p><p><blockquote><li>安全裕度%：5.3%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Delta: 29</p><p><blockquote><li>德尔塔：29</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Disney, we believe the risk/reward profile with DIS stock is very attractive at current levels. That said, if you want some additional margin of safety, consider a cash-secured put strategy.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对迪士尼的长期和短期看法，我们认为DIS股票的风险/回报状况在当前水平上非常有吸引力。也就是说，如果您想要一些额外的安全边际，请考虑现金担保看跌策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为2022年的大赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为2022年的大赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-01 20:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.</li> <li>Fears of the new Covid variant (Omicron) has put further pressure on the stock.</li> <li>That said, we think its time to start looking at the Disney cup as \"half full\" instead of half empty.</li> <li>Disney is one of our top stock picks for 2022.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7c3cef342a5e4c3d39f605d91ebdc8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去几周，迪士尼股票在财报发布后受到了一波负面影响。</li><li>对新冠病毒变种（奥密克戎）的担忧给该股带来了进一步的压力。</li><li>也就是说，我们认为是时候开始将迪士尼杯视为“半满”而不是半空了。</li><li>迪士尼是我们2022年的首选股票之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's always amazing to me how sentiment can shift so quickly on a stock. One minute the glass is \"half full\" and the next minute its \"half empty\". However, this fickleness can provide great opportunities for investors willing to patiently wait for the tide shift again.</p><p><blockquote>我总是很惊讶一只股票的情绪变化如此之快。前一分钟杯子是“半满的”，下一分钟它是“半空的”。然而，这种变化无常可以为愿意耐心等待潮流再次转变的投资者提供巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The Walt Disney Co.(NYSE:DIS)certainly falls into this category right now.</p><p><blockquote>华特迪士尼公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）目前当然属于这一类。</blockquote></p><p> After missing earnings expectations a few weeks ago and renewed Covid fears from the Omicron variant, investors seemed to have put Disney in the penalty box for now...with the shares sinking about 15% since Nov. 8th.</p><p><blockquote>在几周前未达到盈利预期以及奥密克戎变种重新引发对新冠病毒的担忧之后，投资者似乎暂时将迪士尼置于惩罚箱中……自11月8日以来，迪士尼股价已下跌约15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac736e0b67e5440e2f7e0a106b384640\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, we believe that Disney is the exact type of stock that you want to own going into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们相信迪士尼正是您在2022年想要持有的股票类型。</blockquote></p><p> The company has \"re-opening\" exposure from its theme park business and stable recurring revenue (and cash flow) from its Disney+ (and Hulu and ESPN+) business...which we will believe will be a great combination over the next 6-12 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司从其主题公园业务中“重新开放”风险敞口，并从其Disney+（以及Hulu和ESPN+）业务中获得稳定的经常性收入（和现金流）……我们相信这将是一个很好的组合未来6-12个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Walt Disney Co.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华特·迪士尼公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector/Industry:</b>Communication Services / Entertainment</p><p><blockquote><b>部门/行业：</b>通讯服务/娱乐</blockquote></p><p> Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.</p><p><blockquote>华特·迪士尼拥有一些最受全球认可的角色的版权，从米老鼠到卢克·天行者。这些角色和其他角色出现在世界各地的几个迪士尼主题公园里。迪士尼在皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业等工作室旗下制作真人电影和动画电影，还经营包括ESPN和几家电视制作工作室在内的媒体网络。迪士尼最近重组为四个部门，其中一个新部门：直接面向消费者和国际部门。新的部分包括两个已宣布的OTT产品，ESPN+和迪士尼SVOD服务。该计划还将公园和度假村以及消费品这两个部门合二为一。媒体网络集团包括美国有线电视频道和美国广播公司。工作室部门持有电影制作资产。</blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10056a0f8a2d6e40a9cb69271646ca9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Disney currently has average rankings for Safety (5) and Value (6). We'll dig into those rankings below.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼目前在安全性（5）和价值（6）方面的平均排名。我们将在下面深入研究这些排名。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> It's no secret that the pandemic was rough on Disney as its theme park business (which represented over 30% of revenues) essentially shut down overnight. Not to mention the company's reliance on the box office (which also disappeared). Hence the average Safety ranking of 5.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，疫情对迪士尼的打击很大，因为其主题公园业务（占收入的30%以上）基本上在一夜之间关闭。更不用说公司对票房的依赖（票房也消失了）。因此平均安全等级为5。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Disney has fought its way back to profitability and is expected to earn $4.25 per share in fiscal 2022. The company expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $5.73 per share (35% growth) and $7.30 per share (27% growth), respectively as theme parks and theaters remove capacity restrictions. Also, management expects Disney+ subscribers to more than double by 2024 (from ~120 million currently to over 230 million).<i>Note that Disney's fiscal year end is September.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，迪士尼已经努力恢复盈利，预计2022财年每股收益为4.25美元。该公司预计，随着主题公园和影院取消容量限制，2023年和2024年的盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股5.73美元（增长35%）和每股7.30美元（增长27%）。此外，管理层预计到2024年Disney+订阅用户将增加一倍以上（从目前的约1.2亿增加到超过2.3亿）。<i>请注意，迪士尼的财政年度结束是9月。</i></blockquote></p><p> Including Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, Disney currently has ~170 million subscribers. Compared with Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)current subscriber base of ~209 million...Disney's subscriber growth has been nothing short of incredible. In other words, Disney accomplished in 2 years what it took Netflix ~8 years to do!</p><p><blockquote>包括Disney+、Hulu和ESPN+在内，迪士尼目前拥有约1.7亿订阅者。与Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）目前约2.09亿用户群相比……迪士尼的用户增长令人难以置信。换句话说，迪士尼在两年内完成了网飞花了~8年才完成的事情！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536d4caaf3402c40894e85b28c61e3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $16 billion of cash/short-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也非常强劲，拥有160亿美元的现金/短期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation/Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值/上涨潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Disney looks pretty attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (on a forward basis).</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，迪士尼看起来相当有吸引力，目前的交易价格比其所有长期估值指标（远期）都有相当大的折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeab4377d3d8c4ff2e2fb780ff224146\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"240\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Disney is currently trading at 25.6x forward 2023 earnings and 2.9x forward 2023 sales.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，迪士尼目前的市盈率为2023年预期收益的25.6倍，2023年预期销售额的2.9倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, earnings are expected to grow over 25% per year for the next few years...which would favor a little multiple expansion from here.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，预计未来几年盈利每年将增长25%以上……这将有利于从这里开始进行一点倍数扩张。</blockquote></p><p> If you put a 25x-30x multiple on consensus forward earnings of 7.30 per share in 2024, that would equate to a $182.00 - $219.00 stock price (representing 23%-48% upside from current levels)!</p><p><blockquote>如果您将2024年每股7.30的共识预期收益乘以25-30倍，则相当于股价为182.00-219.00美元（较当前水平上涨23%-48%）！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金抵押认沽分析</b></blockquote></p><p> While we believe that Disney is a \"strong buy\" at current levels, if you are concerned about more downside volatility ahead, we also love the risk/reward profile of the cash-secured puts.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为迪士尼在当前水平上是“强力买入”，但如果您担心未来会出现更多下行波动，我们也喜欢现金担保看跌期权的风险/回报状况。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> The downside with a cash-secured put is that you are obligated to buy the stock at the strike price (which in most circumstances ends up being a good trade).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul>现金担保看跌期权的缺点是您有义务以执行价格购买股票（在大多数情况下，这最终是一笔不错的交易）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Disney. We're focused on the January monthly contract that expires on 1/21/22.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看迪士尼的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是1月21日/22日到期的1月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b72516013aa678d6304de63305b1c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, we believe that the $140 level could hold as long-tern support here. So we really like the following cash-secured put:</p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，我们认为140美元的水平可能会成为长期支撑。因此，我们非常喜欢以下现金担保看跌期权：</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>DIS Jan 21st $140.00 Put (53 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>DIS 1月21日140.00美元看跌期权（距离到期还有53天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$3.10 premium</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：约3.10美元溢价</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)</p><p><blockquote><li>平均月收益率%：1.3%（年化15.6%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: 5.3%</p><p><blockquote><li>安全裕度%：5.3%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Delta: 29</p><p><blockquote><li>德尔塔：29</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Disney, we believe the risk/reward profile with DIS stock is very attractive at current levels. That said, if you want some additional margin of safety, consider a cash-secured put strategy.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对迪士尼的长期和短期看法，我们认为DIS股票的风险/回报状况在当前水平上非常有吸引力。也就是说，如果您想要一些额外的安全边际，请考虑现金担保看跌策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472576-walt-disney-dis-top-stock-picks-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472576-walt-disney-dis-top-stock-picks-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100425330","content_text":"Summary\n\nA wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.\nFears of the new Covid variant (Omicron) has put further pressure on the stock.\nThat said, we think its time to start looking at the Disney cup as \"half full\" instead of half empty.\nDisney is one of our top stock picks for 2022.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images News\nIt's always amazing to me how sentiment can shift so quickly on a stock. One minute the glass is \"half full\" and the next minute its \"half empty\". However, this fickleness can provide great opportunities for investors willing to patiently wait for the tide shift again.\nThe Walt Disney Co.(NYSE:DIS)certainly falls into this category right now.\nAfter missing earnings expectations a few weeks ago and renewed Covid fears from the Omicron variant, investors seemed to have put Disney in the penalty box for now...with the shares sinking about 15% since Nov. 8th.\nData by YCharts\nThat said, we believe that Disney is the exact type of stock that you want to own going into 2022.\nThe company has \"re-opening\" exposure from its theme park business and stable recurring revenue (and cash flow) from its Disney+ (and Hulu and ESPN+) business...which we will believe will be a great combination over the next 6-12 months.\nThe Walt Disney Co.\nSector/Industry:Communication Services / Entertainment\nWalt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.\n(Source: YCharts)\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nDisney currently has average rankings for Safety (5) and Value (6). We'll dig into those rankings below.\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nSafety\nIt's no secret that the pandemic was rough on Disney as its theme park business (which represented over 30% of revenues) essentially shut down overnight. Not to mention the company's reliance on the box office (which also disappeared). Hence the average Safety ranking of 5.\nThat said, Disney has fought its way back to profitability and is expected to earn $4.25 per share in fiscal 2022. The company expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $5.73 per share (35% growth) and $7.30 per share (27% growth), respectively as theme parks and theaters remove capacity restrictions. Also, management expects Disney+ subscribers to more than double by 2024 (from ~120 million currently to over 230 million).Note that Disney's fiscal year end is September.\nIncluding Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, Disney currently has ~170 million subscribers. Compared with Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)current subscriber base of ~209 million...Disney's subscriber growth has been nothing short of incredible. In other words, Disney accomplished in 2 years what it took Netflix ~8 years to do!\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nThe company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $16 billion of cash/short-term investments.\nValuation/Upside Potential\nDisney looks pretty attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (on a forward basis).\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nSpecifically, Disney is currently trading at 25.6x forward 2023 earnings and 2.9x forward 2023 sales.\nThat said, earnings are expected to grow over 25% per year for the next few years...which would favor a little multiple expansion from here.\nIf you put a 25x-30x multiple on consensus forward earnings of 7.30 per share in 2024, that would equate to a $182.00 - $219.00 stock price (representing 23%-48% upside from current levels)!\nCash-Secured Put Analysis\nWhile we believe that Disney is a \"strong buy\" at current levels, if you are concerned about more downside volatility ahead, we also love the risk/reward profile of the cash-secured puts.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nThe downside with a cash-secured put is that you are obligated to buy the stock at the strike price (which in most circumstances ends up being a good trade).\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Disney. We're focused on the January monthly contract that expires on 1/21/22.\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nAs discussed in the video, we believe that the $140 level could hold as long-tern support here. So we really like the following cash-secured put:\nDIS Jan 21st $140.00 Put (53 days until expiration)\n\nOption Premium: ~$3.10 premium\nAverage Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)\nMargin-of-Safety %: 5.3%\nDelta: 29\n\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Disney, we believe the risk/reward profile with DIS stock is very attractive at current levels. That said, if you want some additional margin of safety, consider a cash-secured put strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603378277"}
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