Ethan737
2021-12-01
Nobody can tell
Disney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为 2022 年的大赢家</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":603306654,"tweetId":"603306654","gmtCreate":1638361489893,"gmtModify":1638361575787,"author":{"id":3581893411633894,"idStr":"3581893411633894","authorId":3581893411633894,"authorIdStr":"3581893411633894","name":"Ethan737","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419d47216072258b92145ab0e941b6e6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nobody can tell</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nobody can tell</p></body></html>","text":"Nobody can tell","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603306654","repostId":1100425330,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100425330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638360525,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100425330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为 2022 年的大赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100425330","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nA wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.\nFears of t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.</li> <li>Fears of the new Covid variant (Omicron) has put further pressure on the stock.</li> <li>That said, we think its time to start looking at the Disney cup as \"half full\" instead of half empty.</li> <li>Disney is one of our top stock picks for 2022.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7c3cef342a5e4c3d39f605d91ebdc8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去几周，财报公布后，迪士尼股价遭遇了一波负面情绪。</li><li>对新的新冠病毒变种（奥密克戎）的担忧给该股带来了进一步的压力。</li><li>也就是说，我们认为是时候开始将迪士尼杯视为“半满”而不是半空了。</li><li>迪士尼是我们2022年的首选股票之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's always amazing to me how sentiment can shift so quickly on a stock. One minute the glass is \"half full\" and the next minute its \"half empty\". However, this fickleness can provide great opportunities for investors willing to patiently wait for the tide shift again.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，股票的情绪变化如此之快总是令人惊讶。前一分钟杯子是“半满”的，下一分钟是“半空”的。然而，这种反复无常可以为愿意耐心等待潮流再次转变的投资者提供巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The Walt Disney Co.(NYSE:DIS)certainly falls into this category right now.</p><p><blockquote>华特迪士尼公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）现在当然属于这一类。</blockquote></p><p> After missing earnings expectations a few weeks ago and renewed Covid fears from the Omicron variant, investors seemed to have put Disney in the penalty box for now...with the shares sinking about 15% since Nov. 8th.</p><p><blockquote>在几周前未能达到盈利预期以及奥密克戎变体对新冠病毒的担忧再次引发后，投资者似乎暂时将迪士尼投入了惩罚箱……自 11 月 8 日以来，迪士尼股价下跌了约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac736e0b67e5440e2f7e0a106b384640\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, we believe that Disney is the exact type of stock that you want to own going into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们相信迪士尼正是您想要在 2022 年拥有的股票类型。</blockquote></p><p> The company has \"re-opening\" exposure from its theme park business and stable recurring revenue (and cash flow) from its Disney+ (and Hulu and ESPN+) business...which we will believe will be a great combination over the next 6-12 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司主题公园业务的“重新开放”曝光率以及 Disney+（以及 Hulu 和 ESPN+）业务的稳定经常性收入（和现金流）……我们相信这将是未来 6-12 个月的绝佳组合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Walt Disney Co.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华特·迪士尼公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector/Industry:</b>Communication Services / Entertainment</p><p><blockquote><b>行业/行业：</b>通讯服务/娱乐</blockquote></p><p> Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.</p><p><blockquote>华特·迪士尼拥有一些全球最知名角色的版权，从米老鼠到卢克·天行者。这些角色和其他角色出现在世界各地的几个迪士尼主题公园中。迪士尼在皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业等工作室下制作真人电影和动画电影，还运营包括ESPN和几个电视制作工作室在内的媒体网络。迪士尼最近重组为四个部门，并新增了一个部门：直接面向消费者和国际。新的细分市场包括两个宣布的OTT产品，ESPN+和迪士尼SVOD服务。该计划还将公园和度假村以及消费品两个部分合并为一个部分。媒体网络集团包括美国有线电视频道和美国广播公司。工作室部门持有电影制作资产。</blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10056a0f8a2d6e40a9cb69271646ca9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Disney currently has average rankings for Safety (5) and Value (6). We'll dig into those rankings below.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼目前在安全性（5）和价值（6）方面的平均排名。我们将在下面深入探讨这些排名。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，我们的排名从1（最低）到10（最高）。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> It's no secret that the pandemic was rough on Disney as its theme park business (which represented over 30% of revenues) essentially shut down overnight. Not to mention the company's reliance on the box office (which also disappeared). Hence the average Safety ranking of 5.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，疫情对迪士尼来说很艰难，因为其主题公园业务（占收入的30%以上）基本上在一夜之间关闭了。更不用说公司对票房的依赖（也消失了）。因此平均安全等级为5。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Disney has fought its way back to profitability and is expected to earn $4.25 per share in fiscal 2022. The company expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $5.73 per share (35% growth) and $7.30 per share (27% growth), respectively as theme parks and theaters remove capacity restrictions. Also, management expects Disney+ subscribers to more than double by 2024 (from ~120 million currently to over 230 million).<i>Note that Disney's fiscal year end is September.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，迪士尼已经努力恢复盈利，预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 4.25 美元。随着主题公园和剧院取消容量限制，该公司预计 2023 年和 2024 年盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股 5.73 美元（增长 35%）和每股 7.30 美元（增长 27%）。此外，管理层预计到 2024 年，Disney+ 用户数量将增加一倍以上（从目前的约 1.2 亿增加到超过 2.3 亿）。<i>请注意，迪士尼的财政年度结束是9月。</i></blockquote></p><p> Including Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, Disney currently has ~170 million subscribers. Compared with Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)current subscriber base of ~209 million...Disney's subscriber growth has been nothing short of incredible. In other words, Disney accomplished in 2 years what it took Netflix ~8 years to do!</p><p><blockquote>包括Disney+、Hulu和ESPN+在内，迪士尼目前拥有约1.7亿用户。与 Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）目前约 2.09 亿的用户群相比……迪士尼的订户增长令人难以置信。换句话说，迪士尼在两年内完成了网飞大约8年才能完成的事情!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536d4caaf3402c40894e85b28c61e3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $16 billion of cash/short-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也极其强劲，拥有160亿美元的现金/短期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation/Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值/上行潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Disney looks pretty attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (on a forward basis).</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，迪士尼看起来相当有吸引力，目前其所有长期估值指标（远期）的交易价格都有相当大的折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeab4377d3d8c4ff2e2fb780ff224146\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"240\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Disney is currently trading at 25.6x forward 2023 earnings and 2.9x forward 2023 sales.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，迪士尼目前的交易价格是 2023 年预期收益的 25.6 倍，2023 年预期销售额的 2.9 倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, earnings are expected to grow over 25% per year for the next few years...which would favor a little multiple expansion from here.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，未来几年盈利预计每年将增长 25% 以上……这将有利于从这里开始进行小幅多重扩张。</blockquote></p><p> If you put a 25x-30x multiple on consensus forward earnings of 7.30 per share in 2024, that would equate to a $182.00 - $219.00 stock price (representing 23%-48% upside from current levels)!</p><p><blockquote>如果您将 2024 年每股 7.30 美元的共识预期收益放置 25 倍-30 倍，则相当于 182.00 美元 - 219.00 美元的股价（比当前水平上涨 23%-48%）!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌期权分析</b></blockquote></p><p> While we believe that Disney is a \"strong buy\" at current levels, if you are concerned about more downside volatility ahead, we also love the risk/reward profile of the cash-secured puts.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为迪士尼在当前水平上是“强力买入”，但如果您担心未来更多的下行波动，我们也喜欢现金担保看跌期权的风险/回报状况。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌期权交易时，我们关注的三个主要数据点是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> The downside with a cash-secured put is that you are obligated to buy the stock at the strike price (which in most circumstances ends up being a good trade).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外），衡量预期资本回报率。<i>假设购股权完全以现金作抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍允许您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：看跌期权最终平价概率的一个很好的代表。</li></ul>现金担保看跌期权的缺点是你有义务以执行价格购买股票（在大多数情况下，这最终是一笔不错的交易）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是存在负相关关系：给定行权月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Disney. We're focused on the January monthly contract that expires on 1/21/22.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看迪士尼的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们专注于2022年1月21日到期的1月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b72516013aa678d6304de63305b1c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, we believe that the $140 level could hold as long-tern support here. So we really like the following cash-secured put:</p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，我们认为 140 美元水平可能是这里的长期支撑。因此，我们非常喜欢以下现金担保看跌期权：</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>DIS Jan 21st $140.00 Put (53 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>DIS 1 月 21 日 $140.00 看跌期权（距到期 53 天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$3.10 premium</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：~3.10 美元溢价</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)</p><p><blockquote><li>平均月收益率%：1.3%（年化15.6%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: 5.3%</p><p><blockquote><li>安全裕度%：5.3%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Delta: 29</p><p><blockquote><li>德尔塔：29</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Disney, we believe the risk/reward profile with DIS stock is very attractive at current levels. That said, if you want some additional margin of safety, consider a cash-secured put strategy.</p><p><blockquote>基于我们对迪士尼的长期和短期看法，我们认为 DIS 股票的风险/回报状况在当前水平上非常有吸引力。也就是说，如果您想要一些额外的安全边际，请考虑现金担保的看跌期权策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为 2022 年的大赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney Could Be A Huge Winner In 2022<blockquote>迪士尼可能成为 2022 年的大赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-01 20:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.</li> <li>Fears of the new Covid variant (Omicron) has put further pressure on the stock.</li> <li>That said, we think its time to start looking at the Disney cup as \"half full\" instead of half empty.</li> <li>Disney is one of our top stock picks for 2022.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7c3cef342a5e4c3d39f605d91ebdc8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去几周，财报公布后，迪士尼股价遭遇了一波负面情绪。</li><li>对新的新冠病毒变种（奥密克戎）的担忧给该股带来了进一步的压力。</li><li>也就是说，我们认为是时候开始将迪士尼杯视为“半满”而不是半空了。</li><li>迪士尼是我们2022年的首选股票之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's always amazing to me how sentiment can shift so quickly on a stock. One minute the glass is \"half full\" and the next minute its \"half empty\". However, this fickleness can provide great opportunities for investors willing to patiently wait for the tide shift again.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，股票的情绪变化如此之快总是令人惊讶。前一分钟杯子是“半满”的，下一分钟是“半空”的。然而，这种反复无常可以为愿意耐心等待潮流再次转变的投资者提供巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The Walt Disney Co.(NYSE:DIS)certainly falls into this category right now.</p><p><blockquote>华特迪士尼公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）现在当然属于这一类。</blockquote></p><p> After missing earnings expectations a few weeks ago and renewed Covid fears from the Omicron variant, investors seemed to have put Disney in the penalty box for now...with the shares sinking about 15% since Nov. 8th.</p><p><blockquote>在几周前未能达到盈利预期以及奥密克戎变体对新冠病毒的担忧再次引发后，投资者似乎暂时将迪士尼投入了惩罚箱……自 11 月 8 日以来，迪士尼股价下跌了约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac736e0b67e5440e2f7e0a106b384640\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, we believe that Disney is the exact type of stock that you want to own going into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们相信迪士尼正是您想要在 2022 年拥有的股票类型。</blockquote></p><p> The company has \"re-opening\" exposure from its theme park business and stable recurring revenue (and cash flow) from its Disney+ (and Hulu and ESPN+) business...which we will believe will be a great combination over the next 6-12 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司主题公园业务的“重新开放”曝光率以及 Disney+（以及 Hulu 和 ESPN+）业务的稳定经常性收入（和现金流）……我们相信这将是未来 6-12 个月的绝佳组合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Walt Disney Co.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华特·迪士尼公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector/Industry:</b>Communication Services / Entertainment</p><p><blockquote><b>行业/行业：</b>通讯服务/娱乐</blockquote></p><p> Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.</p><p><blockquote>华特·迪士尼拥有一些全球最知名角色的版权，从米老鼠到卢克·天行者。这些角色和其他角色出现在世界各地的几个迪士尼主题公园中。迪士尼在皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业等工作室下制作真人电影和动画电影，还运营包括ESPN和几个电视制作工作室在内的媒体网络。迪士尼最近重组为四个部门，并新增了一个部门：直接面向消费者和国际。新的细分市场包括两个宣布的OTT产品，ESPN+和迪士尼SVOD服务。该计划还将公园和度假村以及消费品两个部分合并为一个部分。媒体网络集团包括美国有线电视频道和美国广播公司。工作室部门持有电影制作资产。</blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10056a0f8a2d6e40a9cb69271646ca9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Disney currently has average rankings for Safety (5) and Value (6). We'll dig into those rankings below.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼目前在安全性（5）和价值（6）方面的平均排名。我们将在下面深入探讨这些排名。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，我们的排名从1（最低）到10（最高）。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> It's no secret that the pandemic was rough on Disney as its theme park business (which represented over 30% of revenues) essentially shut down overnight. Not to mention the company's reliance on the box office (which also disappeared). Hence the average Safety ranking of 5.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，疫情对迪士尼来说很艰难，因为其主题公园业务（占收入的30%以上）基本上在一夜之间关闭了。更不用说公司对票房的依赖（也消失了）。因此平均安全等级为5。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Disney has fought its way back to profitability and is expected to earn $4.25 per share in fiscal 2022. The company expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $5.73 per share (35% growth) and $7.30 per share (27% growth), respectively as theme parks and theaters remove capacity restrictions. Also, management expects Disney+ subscribers to more than double by 2024 (from ~120 million currently to over 230 million).<i>Note that Disney's fiscal year end is September.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，迪士尼已经努力恢复盈利，预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 4.25 美元。随着主题公园和剧院取消容量限制，该公司预计 2023 年和 2024 年盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股 5.73 美元（增长 35%）和每股 7.30 美元（增长 27%）。此外，管理层预计到 2024 年，Disney+ 用户数量将增加一倍以上（从目前的约 1.2 亿增加到超过 2.3 亿）。<i>请注意，迪士尼的财政年度结束是9月。</i></blockquote></p><p> Including Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, Disney currently has ~170 million subscribers. Compared with Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)current subscriber base of ~209 million...Disney's subscriber growth has been nothing short of incredible. In other words, Disney accomplished in 2 years what it took Netflix ~8 years to do!</p><p><blockquote>包括Disney+、Hulu和ESPN+在内，迪士尼目前拥有约1.7亿用户。与 Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）目前约 2.09 亿的用户群相比……迪士尼的订户增长令人难以置信。换句话说，迪士尼在两年内完成了网飞大约8年才能完成的事情!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536d4caaf3402c40894e85b28c61e3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $16 billion of cash/short-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也极其强劲，拥有160亿美元的现金/短期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation/Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值/上行潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Disney looks pretty attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (on a forward basis).</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，迪士尼看起来相当有吸引力，目前其所有长期估值指标（远期）的交易价格都有相当大的折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeab4377d3d8c4ff2e2fb780ff224146\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"240\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Disney is currently trading at 25.6x forward 2023 earnings and 2.9x forward 2023 sales.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，迪士尼目前的交易价格是 2023 年预期收益的 25.6 倍，2023 年预期销售额的 2.9 倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, earnings are expected to grow over 25% per year for the next few years...which would favor a little multiple expansion from here.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，未来几年盈利预计每年将增长 25% 以上……这将有利于从这里开始进行小幅多重扩张。</blockquote></p><p> If you put a 25x-30x multiple on consensus forward earnings of 7.30 per share in 2024, that would equate to a $182.00 - $219.00 stock price (representing 23%-48% upside from current levels)!</p><p><blockquote>如果您将 2024 年每股 7.30 美元的共识预期收益放置 25 倍-30 倍，则相当于 182.00 美元 - 219.00 美元的股价（比当前水平上涨 23%-48%）!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌期权分析</b></blockquote></p><p> While we believe that Disney is a \"strong buy\" at current levels, if you are concerned about more downside volatility ahead, we also love the risk/reward profile of the cash-secured puts.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为迪士尼在当前水平上是“强力买入”，但如果您担心未来更多的下行波动，我们也喜欢现金担保看跌期权的风险/回报状况。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌期权交易时，我们关注的三个主要数据点是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> The downside with a cash-secured put is that you are obligated to buy the stock at the strike price (which in most circumstances ends up being a good trade).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外），衡量预期资本回报率。<i>假设购股权完全以现金作抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍允许您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：看跌期权最终平价概率的一个很好的代表。</li></ul>现金担保看跌期权的缺点是你有义务以执行价格购买股票（在大多数情况下，这最终是一笔不错的交易）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是存在负相关关系：给定行权月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Disney. We're focused on the January monthly contract that expires on 1/21/22.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看迪士尼的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们专注于2022年1月21日到期的1月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b72516013aa678d6304de63305b1c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, we believe that the $140 level could hold as long-tern support here. So we really like the following cash-secured put:</p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，我们认为 140 美元水平可能是这里的长期支撑。因此，我们非常喜欢以下现金担保看跌期权：</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>DIS Jan 21st $140.00 Put (53 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>DIS 1 月 21 日 $140.00 看跌期权（距到期 53 天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$3.10 premium</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：~3.10 美元溢价</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)</p><p><blockquote><li>平均月收益率%：1.3%（年化15.6%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: 5.3%</p><p><blockquote><li>安全裕度%：5.3%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Delta: 29</p><p><blockquote><li>德尔塔：29</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Disney, we believe the risk/reward profile with DIS stock is very attractive at current levels. That said, if you want some additional margin of safety, consider a cash-secured put strategy.</p><p><blockquote>基于我们对迪士尼的长期和短期看法，我们认为 DIS 股票的风险/回报状况在当前水平上非常有吸引力。也就是说，如果您想要一些额外的安全边际，请考虑现金担保的看跌期权策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472576-walt-disney-dis-top-stock-picks-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472576-walt-disney-dis-top-stock-picks-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100425330","content_text":"Summary\n\nA wave of negativity has hit Disney stock over the past few weeks post earnings.\nFears of the new Covid variant (Omicron) has put further pressure on the stock.\nThat said, we think its time to start looking at the Disney cup as \"half full\" instead of half empty.\nDisney is one of our top stock picks for 2022.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images News\nIt's always amazing to me how sentiment can shift so quickly on a stock. One minute the glass is \"half full\" and the next minute its \"half empty\". However, this fickleness can provide great opportunities for investors willing to patiently wait for the tide shift again.\nThe Walt Disney Co.(NYSE:DIS)certainly falls into this category right now.\nAfter missing earnings expectations a few weeks ago and renewed Covid fears from the Omicron variant, investors seemed to have put Disney in the penalty box for now...with the shares sinking about 15% since Nov. 8th.\nData by YCharts\nThat said, we believe that Disney is the exact type of stock that you want to own going into 2022.\nThe company has \"re-opening\" exposure from its theme park business and stable recurring revenue (and cash flow) from its Disney+ (and Hulu and ESPN+) business...which we will believe will be a great combination over the next 6-12 months.\nThe Walt Disney Co.\nSector/Industry:Communication Services / Entertainment\nWalt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several Disney theme parks around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under studios such as Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and also operates media networks including ESPN and several TV production studios. Disney recently reorganized into four segments with one new segment: direct-to-consumer and international. The new segment includes the two announced OTT offerings, ESPN+ and the Disney SVOD service. The plan also combines two segments, parks and resorts and consumer products, into one. The media networks group contains the U.S. cable channels and ABC. The studio segment holds the movie production assets.\n(Source: YCharts)\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nDisney currently has average rankings for Safety (5) and Value (6). We'll dig into those rankings below.\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nSafety\nIt's no secret that the pandemic was rough on Disney as its theme park business (which represented over 30% of revenues) essentially shut down overnight. Not to mention the company's reliance on the box office (which also disappeared). Hence the average Safety ranking of 5.\nThat said, Disney has fought its way back to profitability and is expected to earn $4.25 per share in fiscal 2022. The company expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $5.73 per share (35% growth) and $7.30 per share (27% growth), respectively as theme parks and theaters remove capacity restrictions. Also, management expects Disney+ subscribers to more than double by 2024 (from ~120 million currently to over 230 million).Note that Disney's fiscal year end is September.\nIncluding Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, Disney currently has ~170 million subscribers. Compared with Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX)current subscriber base of ~209 million...Disney's subscriber growth has been nothing short of incredible. In other words, Disney accomplished in 2 years what it took Netflix ~8 years to do!\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nThe company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $16 billion of cash/short-term investments.\nValuation/Upside Potential\nDisney looks pretty attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (on a forward basis).\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nSpecifically, Disney is currently trading at 25.6x forward 2023 earnings and 2.9x forward 2023 sales.\nThat said, earnings are expected to grow over 25% per year for the next few years...which would favor a little multiple expansion from here.\nIf you put a 25x-30x multiple on consensus forward earnings of 7.30 per share in 2024, that would equate to a $182.00 - $219.00 stock price (representing 23%-48% upside from current levels)!\nCash-Secured Put Analysis\nWhile we believe that Disney is a \"strong buy\" at current levels, if you are concerned about more downside volatility ahead, we also love the risk/reward profile of the cash-secured puts.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nThe downside with a cash-secured put is that you are obligated to buy the stock at the strike price (which in most circumstances ends up being a good trade).\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Disney. We're focused on the January monthly contract that expires on 1/21/22.\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nAs discussed in the video, we believe that the $140 level could hold as long-tern support here. So we really like the following cash-secured put:\nDIS Jan 21st $140.00 Put (53 days until expiration)\n\nOption Premium: ~$3.10 premium\nAverage Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)\nMargin-of-Safety %: 5.3%\nDelta: 29\n\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Disney, we believe the risk/reward profile with DIS stock is very attractive at current levels. That said, if you want some additional margin of safety, consider a cash-secured put strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603306654"}
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