WilMic
2021-12-01
Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better
Novavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Novavax与辉瑞股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
3
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":603086737,"tweetId":"603086737","gmtCreate":1638339480376,"gmtModify":1638339480444,"author":{"id":4090040387780440,"idStr":"4090040387780440","authorId":4090040387780440,"authorIdStr":"4090040387780440","name":"WilMic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df19ab56ab9c1603935c4992ab4cc86","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better </p></body></html>","text":"Novax no promising sale yet...wait and see better","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603086737","repostId":1143190844,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143190844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638338816,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143190844?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 14:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Novavax与辉瑞股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143190844","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.\n","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Pfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.</li> <li>Pfizer recently filed for the Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 antiviral candidate, PAXLOVID, which is expected to bring in $24B in sales in FY22.</li> <li>Novavax obtained its regulatory approvals for NVX-CoV2373 in both Indonesia and the Philippines. The company can finally start fulfilling its $7B worth of purchase obligations.</li> <li>We discuss which stock is the better buy for investors now.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞预计Comirnaty在21财年的收入将达到360亿美元，在22财年的销售额将达到290亿美元。</li><li>辉瑞最近为其COVID-19抗病毒候选药物PAXLOVID申请了紧急使用授权，预计该药物将在2022财年带来240亿美元的销售额。</li><li>Novavax在印度尼西亚和菲律宾获得了NVX-CoV2373的监管批准。该公司终于可以开始履行价值70亿美元的采购义务了。</li><li>我们讨论现在哪只股票更适合投资者购买。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer (PFE) expects to sell2.3B of its vaccines in FY2021, representing up to 44.5% of total projected sales of $82B. In addition, the company guided Cominarty sales to account for $36B of revenue in FY2021 and $29B in FY2022. Pfizer also recently submitted itsCOVID-19 Antiviral Candidate, PAXLOVID, for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in the US. PAXLOVID achieved89% efficacy in its clinical trials in reducing the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death. As a result,SVB Leerinkestimates PAXLOVID to bring in $24B of sales for Pfizer in FY2022.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞(PFE)预计2021财年将销售2.3 B疫苗，占预计总销售额820亿美元的44.5%。此外，该公司预计Cominarty销售额在2021财年占收入36B美元，在2022财年占收入29B美元。辉瑞最近还在美国提交了其COVID-19抗病毒候选药物PAXLOVID的紧急使用授权(EUA)。PAXLOVID在其临床试验中在降低COVID-19相关住院或死亡风险方面取得了89%的疗效。因此，SVB Leerink预计PAXLOVID将在2022财年为辉瑞带来24B美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax (NVAX) has$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to fulfill by FY2022. Novavax has also finally obtained its regulatory approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines while awaiting approvals in many other countries. Though Novavax has yet to submit for US FDA approval, we believe its vaccine could have more potential within the lower-income countries.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax(NVAX)拥有价值70亿美元的NVX-CoV2373预购协议，将于2022财年履行。Novavax也最终获得了印度尼西亚和菲律宾的监管批准，同时正在等待许多其他国家的批准。尽管Novavax尚未提交美国FDA批准，但我们相信其疫苗在低收入国家可能有更大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss which stock is the better buy now.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论现在购买哪只股票更好。</blockquote></p><p> Omicron - The Variant Of Concern</p><p><blockquote>奥密克戎——令人担忧的变体</blockquote></p><p> On 14 November 2021, a new variant of the COVID-19 virus, B.1.1.529,Omicron, was detected in Gauteng, South Africa. Scientists hypothesized that the Omicron could be an escape variant due to the doubling of mutations compared to the Delta variant. As the most predominant strain globally,CDC reported that the Delta variant caused more infections and spread faster than its early forms. Some scientists have indicated that the high number of mutations may be linked to its resistance to antibodies and possibly be more contagious. Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said:</p><p><blockquote>2021年11月14日，在南非豪登省发现了新冠肺炎病毒的新变种B.1.1.529，奥密克戎。科学家们假设，奥密克戎可能是一种逃逸变体，因为与德尔塔变异毒株相比，突变增加了一倍。作为全球最主要的菌株，CDC报告称，德尔塔变异毒株病毒比其早期形式引起更多感染，传播速度更快。一些科学家指出，大量的突变可能与其对抗体的抵抗力有关，并且可能更具传染性。剑桥大学的拉维·古普塔教授表示：</blockquote></p><p> Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees.\" (BBC) Furthermore, the new highly mutated virus is considerably different from those originally used to design the existing COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, there is a legitimate concern that Omicron may\"elude the targeted immune response\"by the current vaccines and be highly virulent. Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Britain's Warwick University, said,</p><p><blockquote>Beta完全是免疫逃逸，没有其他，Delta具有传染性和适度的免疫逃逸，这可能两者都具有很高的程度。”（英国广播公司）此外，这种新的高度突变病毒与最初用于设计现有新冠肺炎疫苗的病毒有很大不同。因此，人们有理由担心奥密克戎病毒可能会“逃避当前疫苗的靶向免疫反应”，并且具有高毒性。英国华威大学病毒学家劳伦斯·杨教授表示，</blockquote></p><p> This new variant of the COVID-19 virus is very worrying. It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. Some of the mutations that are similar to changes we've seen in other variants of concern are associated with enhanced transmissibility and with partial resistance to immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection.\" (CNA) As a result of the discovery, countries have placed travel restrictions on those arriving from Africa. It includes the US, EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and many others. In addition, the stock market has also been affected, especially those in the travel and hospitality industry. Many expect that the Omicron may cause another surge in lockdowns and further delay the global recovery from the pandemic. It is worrying indeed since international travel lanes have just reopened in early November 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这种新冠病毒的新变种非常令人担忧。这是我们迄今为止看到的变异最严重的病毒版本。一些突变与我们在其他令人担忧的变种中看到的变化相似，与传播性增强以及对疫苗接种或自然感染诱导的免疫的部分抵抗力有关。”（CNA）由于这一发现，各国对来自非洲的人实施了旅行限制。它包括美国、欧盟、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、日本、新加坡和许多其他国家。此外，股市也受到了影响，尤其是旅游和酒店业的股市。许多人预计，奥密克戎可能会导致封锁再次激增，并进一步推迟全球从疫情中的复苏。这确实令人担忧，因为国际旅行通道刚刚在2021年11月初重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless,Pfizer and BioNTechhave long prepared for the emergence of the supposed \"escape variant.\" \"Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) took actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days,\" the company said. In addition, Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AstraZeneca (AZN) have started their investigation on the efficacy of their vaccines against the new variant of concern. They expect to announce lab-based experimental results in two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，辉瑞和BioNTech早就为所谓的“逃逸变体”的出现做好了准备。该公司表示：“辉瑞和BioNTech(BNTX)几个月前采取了行动，能够在六周内适应mRNA疫苗，并在100天内运送第一批疫苗。”此外，Moderna(MRNA)、强生(JNJ)和阿斯利康(AZN)已开始调查其疫苗针对令人担忧的新变种的功效。他们预计将在两周内公布实验室实验结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer is The Market Leader in COVID-19 Vaccines</b></p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞是COVID-19疫苗的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98f222e0c383e30a5c184acf70d6240\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer enjoyed immense growth in its revenue since the first distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020. In barely a year, Pfizer bulldozed its way into delivering2.11B doses of its COVID-19 vaccine. In doing so, the company has inoculated 13.3% of the world's population with two doses of Comirnaty.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年12月首次分发COVID-19疫苗以来，辉瑞的收入实现了巨大增长。在不到一年的时间里，辉瑞公司就交付了21.1亿剂COVID-19疫苗。通过这样做，该公司已为全球13.3%的人口接种了两剂Comirnaty。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In FQ3'21, Pfizer recorded $24.1B in revenue, representing a 233.9% YoY growth compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. In the same quarter, Pfizer also reported growth in other segments. In FQ3'21, the Oncology and Hospital segments reported 31.4% and 24% growth from FQ3'19 sales, respectively. Furthermore, Eliquis (oral anticoagulant from Internal Medicine) and IBRANCE (breast cancer treatment from Oncology) generated $1.34B and $1.38 in sales. It represented a 31.3% and 7.6% increase from FQ3'19, respectively. The growth for Eliquiswas due to a 16% increase in prescription volume, while IBRANCE was driven by deferred diagnosis and treatment caused by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>21年第三季度，辉瑞的收入为$24.1 B，与COVID-19之前的水平相比同比增长233.9%。同一季度，辉瑞还报告了其他细分市场的增长。21年第3季度，肿瘤学和医院部门的销售额较19年第3季度分别增长31.4%和24%。此外，Eliquis（内科口服抗凝剂）和IBRANCE（肿瘤科乳腺癌治疗）的销售额分别为13.4亿美元和1.38美元。较2019年第三季度分别增长31.3%和7.6%。Eliquis的增长是由于处方量增加了16%，而IBRANCE则是由大流行导致的延迟诊断和治疗推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d00b01fc6db5a73811ce8f8d7e9de4f\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"521\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Revenue By Segment. Source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞按部门划分的收入。资料来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer also expects additional revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine due to the US FDA approval of its pediatric application in ages five to eleven. As of 22 November 2021, the Canadian,Malaysian, and Singapore governments have already approved or procured Comirnaty for the pediatric age group. Many other countries globally are also considering Comirnatyfor its young children. As the market leader in the COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer will also report its clinical results for those aged two to five by Q4'21 and six months to two years old by Q1'22. Furthermore, booster shots have been approved by the USCDCandEU public health agency for all adults. It paves the way for a robust recurring revenue market for Pfizer.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞还预计，由于美国FDA批准其5至11岁儿童应用，其COVID-19疫苗将获得额外收入。截至2021年11月22日，加拿大、马来西亚和新加坡政府已经批准或采购了儿科年龄组的Comirnaty。全球许多其他国家也在考虑为其幼儿提供Comirnaty。作为COVID-19疫苗的市场领导者，辉瑞还将在21年第四季度报告其针对2至5岁儿童的临床结果，并在22年第一季度报告针对6个月至2岁儿童的临床结果。此外，USCDCandEU公共卫生局已批准对所有成年人进行加强注射。它为辉瑞强劲的经常性收入市场铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer aims to distribute2.3B doses of its vaccines by the end of 2021, accounting for$36B of revenue. Furthermore, in FQ3'21, Pfizerraised its guidance for FY2021's total revenue to $81B to $82B. The difference is mainly attributed to robust sales in Comirnaty. The raised guidance also reflects the international community's confidence in Pfizer's vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的目标是到2021年底分发23亿剂疫苗，收入达360亿美元。此外，在21年第三季度，辉瑞将2021财年总收入指引上调至810亿美元至820亿美元。这一差异主要归因于Comirnaty的强劲销售。上调的指导意见也反映了国际社会对辉瑞疫苗的信心。</blockquote></p><p> But, consensus estimates expect Pfizer to post $81.3B in total revenue in FY2022, of which vaccine sales will account for $29B. The estimates suggest normalization in Comirnaty sales through FY2023, as COVID-19 becomes endemic.</p><p><blockquote>但是，普遍估计预计辉瑞2022财年的总收入将达到813亿美元，其中疫苗销售额将占290亿美元。这些估计表明，随着COVID-19的流行，Comirnaty销售额将在2023财年恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> However, we expect additional upside to Pfizer's revenue attributed to its antiviral COVID-19 candidate and the possibility of Pfizer's adapted vaccine against the Omicron variant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们预计辉瑞的收入将因其抗病毒COVID-19候选药物以及辉瑞针对奥密克戎变种的改编疫苗的可能性而出现额外增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a45c8c8167dd4302253c667fb7074bc9\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞预计收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 16 November 2021, Pfizer filed for EUA for PAXLOVID, its COVID-19 antiviral treatment. The treatment achieved 89% efficacy in clinical trials, which is better than Merck'sMolnupiravir at 30%. PAXLOVID's treatment is suitable for patients with mild to moderate symptoms, with a high risk of hospitalization or death. The US government also signed an Advanced Purchase Agreement(APA) for 10M doses, worth $529 per treatment course. The treatment may be delivered to the patients as early as Q4'21, upon FDA approval.SVB Leerinkestimated that PAXLOVID might account for an additional $24B in Pfizer's FY2022 revenue. Therefore, it could add further upside to Pfizer's vaccines revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年11月16日，辉瑞为其COVID-19抗病毒治疗药物PAXLOVID申请EUA。该疗法在临床试验中取得了89%的疗效，优于默沙东的Molnupiravir的30%。PAXLOVID的治疗适用于轻中度症状、住院或死亡风险较高的患者。美国政府还签署了1000万剂的提前购买协议（APA），每个疗程价值529美元。经FDA批准，该治疗最早可能于21年第四季度交付给患者。SVB Leerink估计PAXLOVID可能会为辉瑞2022财年的收入增加24B美元。因此，这可能会进一步增加辉瑞疫苗收入的上行空间。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore,Pfizer has licensed PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP), a United Nations-backed public health organization. It allows other generic drug manufacturers to produce the COVID-19 antiviral pill at lower prices. The reduced price will increase the pills' outreach to53% of the global population from 95 low- and middle-income countries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，辉瑞还获得了PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP)的许可，这是一个联合国支持的公共卫生组织。它允许其他仿制药制造商以更低的价格生产COVID-19抗病毒药丸。降价后，这些药丸的覆盖范围将扩大到来自95个中低收入国家的全球53%的人口。</blockquote></p><p> Thus far, Pfizer has demonstrated exemplary execution.The company has managed to clear its clinical trials and the US FDA regulatory processes/ approvals speedily. In addition, no other COVID-19 vaccine makers have come close to the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership regarding its COVID-19 vaccines revenue. Its success is attributed to decades-old expertise and existing infrastructure in the Pharmaceuticals industry, paired with BioNTech's brilliant mRNA technology.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，辉瑞已经展示了示例性的执行。该公司已设法迅速通过其临床试验和美国FDA监管程序/批准。此外，在COVID-19疫苗收入方面，没有其他COVID-19疫苗制造商能够接近辉瑞/BioNTech的合作伙伴关系。其成功归功于制药行业数十年的专业知识和现有基础设施，以及BioNTech出色的mRNA技术。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Pfizer has a solid portfolio of therapeutics, including Eliquis, IBRANCE, and the Prevnar family (Pneumococcal vaccine). These 3 drugs have accounted for $16.3B in revenue in the last twelve months (LTM).</p><p><blockquote>此外，辉瑞拥有坚实的治疗产品组合，包括Eliquis、IBRANCE和Prevnar家族（肺炎球菌疫苗）。这3种药物在过去12个月中的收入为$163亿(LTM)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer's Aggressive Product Pipeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞积极的产品管线</b></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer continues to expand with94 programs in development. Of these, nine are in the registration stage, with 38 programs in phase 2/3 clinical trials. Furthermore, there are six mRNA programs in collaboration with BioNTech for COVID-19 vaccines and one directly under Pfizer for its mRNA Influenza vaccine (phase 1).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞继续扩张，有94个项目正在开发中。其中，9个项目处于注册阶段，38个项目处于2/3期临床试验阶段。此外，还有六个与BioNTech合作的新冠肺炎疫苗mRNA项目，以及一个直接隶属于辉瑞的mRNA流感疫苗项目（第一阶段）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Pfizer has also acquired and collaborated with many companies in multiple specializations, such as oncology, gene therapy, and cardiovascular treatment, as part of its long-term expansion plan. These investments have resulted in three approvals and four Emergency Use Authorizations, with many more in research and development. Over the next 18 months, Pfizer also expectsten program approvals. In addition, since 2019, Pfizer has:</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞还在肿瘤学、基因治疗和心血管治疗等多个专业领域收购并与许多公司合作，作为其长期扩张计划的一部分。这些投资已获得三项批准和四项紧急使用授权，还有更多处于研发阶段。在接下来的18个月里，辉瑞还预计该计划将获得批准。此外，自2019年以来，辉瑞已：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Acquired Array BioPharma, a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company specializing in Oncology</li> <li>Acquired Therachon, a pre-revenue biotechnology company with interests in Achondroplasia and Short Bowel Syndrome</li> <li>Acquired Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL), a pre-revenue immuno-oncology company specializing in Oncology</li> <li>Collaborated with Vivet Therapeutics for research on Wilson disease gene therapy</li> <li>Collaborated with Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (AKCA) for the treatment of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases</li> <li>Collaborated with Valneva SE (OTCPK:INRLF) for the development of Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15</li> <li>Collaborated with Myovant Sciences Ltd. (MYOV) for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer</li> <li>Collaborated with Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) to treat breast cancer and improve the efficacy of IBRANCE (Pfizer's approved breast cancer treatment) for metastatic settings</li> </ul> Pfizer'spipelineincludesmultiple research and developmentsuch as:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收购Array BioPharma，一家专门从事肿瘤学的预营收制药公司</li><li>收购Therachon，一家盈利前的生物技术公司，对软骨发育不全和短肠综合征感兴趣</li><li>收购Trillium Therapeutics Inc.(TRIL)，这是一家专门从事肿瘤学的预营收免疫肿瘤公司</li><li>与Vivet Therapeutics合作开展Wilson病基因疗法研究</li><li>与Akcea Therapeutics，Inc.(AKCA)合作治疗心血管和代谢疾病</li><li>与Valneva SE(OTCPK：INRLF)合作开发莱姆病候选疫苗VLA15</li><li>与Myovant Sciences Ltd.(MYOV)合作治疗晚期前列腺癌</li><li>与Arvinas，Inc.(ARVN)合作治疗乳腺癌并提高IBRANCE（辉瑞批准的乳腺癌治疗药物）在转移性环境中的疗效</li></ul>辉瑞的产品线包括多项研发，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Vaccines, including Prevnar 20 (Pneumococcal) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)</li> <li>Oncology, including the breast, prostate, and blood cancer</li> <li>Rare Diseases, including gene therapies for hemophilia A/B and Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy</li> <li>Internal Medicine, including diabetes</li> <li>Immunology and Inflammation, including rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and vitiligo</li> </ul> Based on its existing portfolio and pipeline, Pfizer guided future revenue growth at a CAGR of 6% through FY2025. The guidance does not include its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, or potential earnings from future mRNA programs. Nevertheless, it shows that Pfizer is confident in its future growth despite the normalization from the Cominarty sales. With an arsenal of profitable therapeutics and promising research and development, Pfizer looks fantastic as an anchor investment for a pharmaceutical investor.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>疫苗，包括Prevnar 20（肺炎球菌）和呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)</li><li>肿瘤学，包括乳腺癌、前列腺癌和血癌</li><li>罕见疾病，包括血友病A/B和杜氏肌营养不良症的基因疗法</li><li>内科，包括糖尿病</li><li>免疫学和炎症，包括类风湿性关节炎、炎症性肠病和白癜风</li></ul>根据其现有的产品组合和产品线，辉瑞预计到2025财年未来收入的复合年增长率为6%。该指南不包括其COVID-19疫苗、Comirnaty或未来mRNA项目的潜在收入。尽管如此，这表明辉瑞对其未来的增长充满信心，尽管Cominarty销售正常化。辉瑞拥有一系列盈利的治疗方法和有前途的研发，作为制药投资者的主要投资，看起来非常棒。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Novavax's Nascent Foray into The BioTech Sector</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Novavax进军生物技术领域</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee7b67ab7c5e746455428648918245c\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Emergency Use Authorisation Application. Source:Novavax</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>紧急使用授权申请。资料来源：Novavax</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Novavax has already obtained its EUA approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, in Indonesian 1 November 2021 and the Philippineson 17 November 2021. Furthermore, many other approvals are pending in the UK, Australia, Canada, Europe, WHO, India, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore. To prepare for the regulatory approval and potential rollout of its vaccines, Novavax has increased its manufacturing capacity in multiple territories, up to 150M vaccine doses a month. As a result, the company projected over2B doses to be distributed in FY2022. The established global supply chain for the production of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine includes:</p><p><blockquote>Novavax的COVID-19疫苗NVX-CoV2373已于2021年11月1日在印度尼西亚和2021年11月17日在菲律宾获得EUA批准。此外，在英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、欧洲、世卫组织、印度、新西兰、韩国和新加坡，许多其他批准正在等待中。为了为其疫苗的监管批准和潜在推出做准备，Novavax提高了其在多个地区的生产能力，每月高达1.5亿剂疫苗。因此，该公司预计2022财年将分发超过2B剂量。诺瓦瓦克斯新冠疫苗生产已建立的全球供应链包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Serum Institute of India</li> <li>Novavax's site in the Czech Republic and Sweden</li> <li>SK Bioscience Co in South Korea</li> <li>Takeda Pharmaceutical Company in Japan</li> <li>Biofibre in Spain</li> <li>Fujifilm in the US and UK</li> <li>Mabion in Poland</li> <li>the National Research Council in Poland and Canada</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c9f5618ee41b46f9f2325c8a28c011\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Global Supply Chain. Source:Novavax</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>印度血清研究所</li><li>Novavax位于捷克共和国和瑞典的工厂</li><li>韩国SK Bioscience Co</li><li>日本武田制药公司</li><li>西班牙的生物纤维</li><li>富士胶片在美国和英国</li><li>Mabion在波兰</li><li>波兰和加拿大国家研究委员会</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺瓦瓦克斯全球供应链。资料来源：Novavax</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34de59290b1dc616668e3a0fb2936290\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺瓦瓦克斯收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In FQ3'21, Novavax reported$179M revenue. The number includes $98M from government contracts, $41M from CEPI grant revenue, and $40M from royalty revenue. The royalty revenue came from SK Biosciences' sales of NVX-CoV2373 antigen components to the government. Novavax is expected to report revenue of $1.4B for FY2021. The sales will include part of the$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to be shipped globally.</p><p><blockquote>21年第三季度，Novavax报告收入为1.79亿美元。这一数字包括来自政府合同的9800万美元、来自CEPI拨款收入的4100万美元和来自特许权使用费收入的4000万美元。特许权使用费收入来自SK Biosciences向政府销售NVX-CoV2373抗原成分。Novavax预计2021财年收入为$1.4 B。此次销售将包括价值70亿美元的NVX-CoV2373预购协议的一部分，将在全球范围内发货。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0b307cda2b15d1695dd4762af1c3a0\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Novavax预计收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, Novavax has several COVID-19 clinical trials in progress globally. The US and Australian trial participants have received their booster shots at 6 and 12 months after the two-dose regimen. The company previously reported that the6 monthly boosters shot sufficiently increased the functional levels of wild-type neutralization and the IgG antibody. With such promising results, Novavax aims to complete its booster clinical trial for regulatory submissions as well.</p><p><blockquote>目前，Novavax在全球有多项新冠临床试验正在进行中。美国和澳大利亚的试验参与者在两剂方案后6个月和12个月接受了加强注射。该公司此前报告称，每月6次加强注射足以提高野生型中和和IgG抗体的功能水平。凭借如此有希望的结果，Novavax的目标是完成其加强临床试验并提交监管机构。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, Novavax aims to complete its regulatory submission globally, especially to the US FDA and EMA. In addition, the company will also proceed with the dosage selection for its combinedNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373clinical trial (to be further discussed later).</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，Novavax的目标是在全球范围内完成监管提交，特别是向美国FDA和EMA提交。此外，该公司还将继续进行其联合NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373临床试验的剂量选择（稍后将进一步讨论）。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax's Robust Pipeline In Influenza</p><p><blockquote>Novavax强大的流感产品线</blockquote></p><p> Beyond its COVID-19 vaccine, Novavax has eight other programs in development. There are three in Phase 2/3 clinical stage, which are ResVax, RSV F, and NanoFlu. Both ResVax and RSV F targets Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in different age groups. However, both have not passed the necessary clinical test. Therefore, they also do not have the required efficacy for EMA & FDA approval.</p><p><blockquote>除了COVID-19疫苗之外，Novavax还有其他八个项目正在开发中。处于2/3期临床阶段的有3款，分别是ResVax、RSV F、NanoFlu。ResVax和RSV F均针对不同年龄组的呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）。然而，两者都没有通过必要的临床测试。因此，它们也不具有EMA和FDA批准所需的功效。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, NanoFlu has recorded top-line results for both clinical trialsagainstSanofi's approved flu vaccine Fluzone Quadrivalent. Sanofi is currently the largest manufacturer of influenza vaccines in the world. Notably, Sanofi supplied250 million doses of Influenza vaccines globally in 2020, worth$2.9B in sales. Therefore, Novavax may capitalize on a massive global Influenza market. As of early 2020, the US FDA has already granted NanoFlu a Fast Track Designation. In September 2021, Novavax also published the NanoFlu Influenza Vaccine Phase 3 Clinical Trial results. However, it remains to be seen when Novavax will file for US FDA approval and if it will be granted.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，NanoFlu在针对赛诺菲批准的流感疫苗Fluzone Quadrivalent的两项临床试验中都取得了顶线结果。赛诺菲是目前全球最大的流感疫苗生产商。值得注意的是，赛诺菲2020年在全球供应了2.5亿剂流感疫苗，销售额价值29亿美元。因此，Novavax可能会利用巨大的全球流感市场。截至2020年初，美国FDA已经授予NanoFlu快速通道资格。2021年9月，Novavax还公布了NanoFlu流感疫苗3期临床试验结果。然而，Novavax何时申请美国FDA批准以及是否会获得批准还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, in May 2021, Novavax announced the results of its combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373in a pre-clinical test. The combined vaccine is a potential breakthrough as an annual COVID-19 booster shot and Influenza vaccine. Phase III clinical (animal) trials have detected little virus or none in the upper and lower respiratory tracts. In September 2021, Novavax initiated the combined vaccine trial Phase I/II in Australia for 640 healthy adults aged 50 to 70 years. These participants had either been fully vaccinated or previously infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.</p><p><blockquote>此外，2021年5月，Novavax公布了其联合疫苗NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373在临床前测试中的结果。作为年度新冠肺炎加强针和流感疫苗，这种联合疫苗是一个潜在的突破。III期临床（动物）试验在上呼吸道和下呼吸道中检测到很少或没有病毒。2021年9月，Novavax在澳大利亚启动了针对640名50至70岁健康成年人的联合疫苗试验I/II期。这些参与者要么已经完全接种了疫苗，要么以前感染过新型冠状病毒病毒。</blockquote></p><p> In November 2021, Novavax published the full results of a combined vaccine trial involving NVX-CoV2373 and an approved influenza vaccine from Seqirus UK Limited. It proves that there are no safety issues while relatively preserving the immune responses from both vaccines. As a result, the combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373may have a massive impact as the alternative to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, combined with a highly effective Influenza shot.</p><p><blockquote>2021年11月，Novavax公布了涉及NVX-CoV2373和Seqirus UK Limited批准的流感疫苗的联合疫苗试验的全部结果。它证明了在相对保留两种疫苗的免疫应答的同时不存在安全性问题。因此，联合疫苗NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373作为mRNA新冠肺炎疫苗的替代品，与高效流感疫苗相结合，可能会产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Compared to Pfizer's pipeline, Novavax's pipeline appear to have more concentrated applications and less diversified. However, we cannot discount that Novavax has only started to get its momentum going while Pfizer is already leading the herd. They are at entirely different scales and timeline altogether. We believe that NanoFlu has shown great potential in its clinical trials. Upon regulatory approval, NanoFlu could generate substantial revenue from the global Influenza vaccines market, which is expected to exceed$9.5B by 2027.</p><p><blockquote>与辉瑞的管线相比，Novavax的管线似乎应用更加集中，多元化程度较低。然而，我们不能忽视Novavax才刚刚开始发展势头，而辉瑞已经处于领先地位。它们处于完全不同的规模和时间线。我们认为，NanoFlu在其临床试验中已经显示出巨大的潜力。一旦获得监管部门批准，NanoFlu可以从全球流感疫苗市场产生大量收入，预计到2027年将超过$9.5 B。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, Which Stock is The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，哪只股票更好买呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132d624d7587dac52e1a3f2a2458ac72\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer And Novavax EV/ Fwd Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞和Novavax EV/Fwd收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer stock is currently trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.56x. It's significantly lower than its peers' comps set mean of 6.57x. Meanwhile, Novavax stock is trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.1x, considering the $7B purchase obligations. Furthermore, both are lower than Moderna stock at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 5.83x. As compared to Moderna and Pfizer stock, Novavax stock certainly looks like a huge bargain now.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞股票目前的EV/2022财年收入为3.56倍。它明显低于同行6.57倍的比较平均值。与此同时，考虑到70亿美元的购买义务，Novavax股票的EV/2022财年收入为3.1倍。此外，两者的EV/2022财年收入均低于Moderna股票的5.83倍。与Moderna和辉瑞股票相比，Novavax股票现在看起来确实很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax has already obtained its EUA approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines, with many more pending globally. Its stock also looks attractive due to its potential mass rollout in lower-income countries. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that Novavax is still a fledgling company compared to Pfizer's decades-old experience. Investors looking for a reliable stock with a strong dividend payout should buy Pfizer stock at its dips. Moreover, Pfizer stock has had a discernible long-term uptrend over the last five years. PFE stock looks like a solid anchor stock for any pharmaceutical investor, given its robust pipeline, immaculate execution, and stable profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax已在印度尼西亚和菲律宾获得EUA批准，全球还有更多批准正在等待批准。由于其有可能在低收入国家大规模推出，其股票看起来也很有吸引力。尽管如此，我们承认，与辉瑞数十年的经验相比，Novavax仍然是一家羽翼未丰的公司。寻找股息支付强劲的可靠股票的投资者应该逢低买入辉瑞股票。此外，辉瑞股票在过去五年中呈现出明显的长期上升趋势。鉴于其强大的产品线、完美的执行力和稳定的盈利能力，PFE股票对于任何制药投资者来说都是一只可靠的锚定股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Therefore, we rate both stocks at Buy.</i>However, we consider NVAX stock as more of a speculative play than a core anchor stock. Therefore, for investors who are more conservative, PFE stock might be a better buy. Nonetheless, NVAX stock could offer huge potential upside as a speculative stock in a well-diversified pharma portfolio.</p><p><blockquote><i>因此，我们对这两只股票的评级均为买入。</i>然而，我们认为NVAX股票更多的是一种投机行为，而不是核心支柱股票。因此，对于更保守的投资者来说，PFE股票可能是更好的买入选择。尽管如此，作为多元化制药投资组合中的投机性股票，NVAX股票可能会提供巨大的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Novavax与辉瑞股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovavax Vs. Pfizer Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Novavax与辉瑞股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-01 14:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Pfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.</li> <li>Pfizer recently filed for the Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 antiviral candidate, PAXLOVID, which is expected to bring in $24B in sales in FY22.</li> <li>Novavax obtained its regulatory approvals for NVX-CoV2373 in both Indonesia and the Philippines. The company can finally start fulfilling its $7B worth of purchase obligations.</li> <li>We discuss which stock is the better buy for investors now.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞预计Comirnaty在21财年的收入将达到360亿美元，在22财年的销售额将达到290亿美元。</li><li>辉瑞最近为其COVID-19抗病毒候选药物PAXLOVID申请了紧急使用授权，预计该药物将在2022财年带来240亿美元的销售额。</li><li>Novavax在印度尼西亚和菲律宾获得了NVX-CoV2373的监管批准。该公司终于可以开始履行价值70亿美元的采购义务了。</li><li>我们讨论现在哪只股票更适合投资者购买。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer (PFE) expects to sell2.3B of its vaccines in FY2021, representing up to 44.5% of total projected sales of $82B. In addition, the company guided Cominarty sales to account for $36B of revenue in FY2021 and $29B in FY2022. Pfizer also recently submitted itsCOVID-19 Antiviral Candidate, PAXLOVID, for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in the US. PAXLOVID achieved89% efficacy in its clinical trials in reducing the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death. As a result,SVB Leerinkestimates PAXLOVID to bring in $24B of sales for Pfizer in FY2022.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞(PFE)预计2021财年将销售2.3 B疫苗，占预计总销售额820亿美元的44.5%。此外，该公司预计Cominarty销售额在2021财年占收入36B美元，在2022财年占收入29B美元。辉瑞最近还在美国提交了其COVID-19抗病毒候选药物PAXLOVID的紧急使用授权(EUA)。PAXLOVID在其临床试验中在降低COVID-19相关住院或死亡风险方面取得了89%的疗效。因此，SVB Leerink预计PAXLOVID将在2022财年为辉瑞带来24B美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax (NVAX) has$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to fulfill by FY2022. Novavax has also finally obtained its regulatory approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines while awaiting approvals in many other countries. Though Novavax has yet to submit for US FDA approval, we believe its vaccine could have more potential within the lower-income countries.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax(NVAX)拥有价值70亿美元的NVX-CoV2373预购协议，将于2022财年履行。Novavax也最终获得了印度尼西亚和菲律宾的监管批准，同时正在等待许多其他国家的批准。尽管Novavax尚未提交美国FDA批准，但我们相信其疫苗在低收入国家可能有更大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss which stock is the better buy now.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论现在购买哪只股票更好。</blockquote></p><p> Omicron - The Variant Of Concern</p><p><blockquote>奥密克戎——令人担忧的变体</blockquote></p><p> On 14 November 2021, a new variant of the COVID-19 virus, B.1.1.529,Omicron, was detected in Gauteng, South Africa. Scientists hypothesized that the Omicron could be an escape variant due to the doubling of mutations compared to the Delta variant. As the most predominant strain globally,CDC reported that the Delta variant caused more infections and spread faster than its early forms. Some scientists have indicated that the high number of mutations may be linked to its resistance to antibodies and possibly be more contagious. Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said:</p><p><blockquote>2021年11月14日，在南非豪登省发现了新冠肺炎病毒的新变种B.1.1.529，奥密克戎。科学家们假设，奥密克戎可能是一种逃逸变体，因为与德尔塔变异毒株相比，突变增加了一倍。作为全球最主要的菌株，CDC报告称，德尔塔变异毒株病毒比其早期形式引起更多感染，传播速度更快。一些科学家指出，大量的突变可能与其对抗体的抵抗力有关，并且可能更具传染性。剑桥大学的拉维·古普塔教授表示：</blockquote></p><p> Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees.\" (BBC) Furthermore, the new highly mutated virus is considerably different from those originally used to design the existing COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, there is a legitimate concern that Omicron may\"elude the targeted immune response\"by the current vaccines and be highly virulent. Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Britain's Warwick University, said,</p><p><blockquote>Beta完全是免疫逃逸，没有其他，Delta具有传染性和适度的免疫逃逸，这可能两者都具有很高的程度。”（英国广播公司）此外，这种新的高度突变病毒与最初用于设计现有新冠肺炎疫苗的病毒有很大不同。因此，人们有理由担心奥密克戎病毒可能会“逃避当前疫苗的靶向免疫反应”，并且具有高毒性。英国华威大学病毒学家劳伦斯·杨教授表示，</blockquote></p><p> This new variant of the COVID-19 virus is very worrying. It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. Some of the mutations that are similar to changes we've seen in other variants of concern are associated with enhanced transmissibility and with partial resistance to immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection.\" (CNA) As a result of the discovery, countries have placed travel restrictions on those arriving from Africa. It includes the US, EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and many others. In addition, the stock market has also been affected, especially those in the travel and hospitality industry. Many expect that the Omicron may cause another surge in lockdowns and further delay the global recovery from the pandemic. It is worrying indeed since international travel lanes have just reopened in early November 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这种新冠病毒的新变种非常令人担忧。这是我们迄今为止看到的变异最严重的病毒版本。一些突变与我们在其他令人担忧的变种中看到的变化相似，与传播性增强以及对疫苗接种或自然感染诱导的免疫的部分抵抗力有关。”（CNA）由于这一发现，各国对来自非洲的人实施了旅行限制。它包括美国、欧盟、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、日本、新加坡和许多其他国家。此外，股市也受到了影响，尤其是旅游和酒店业的股市。许多人预计，奥密克戎可能会导致封锁再次激增，并进一步推迟全球从疫情中的复苏。这确实令人担忧，因为国际旅行通道刚刚在2021年11月初重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless,Pfizer and BioNTechhave long prepared for the emergence of the supposed \"escape variant.\" \"Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) took actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days,\" the company said. In addition, Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AstraZeneca (AZN) have started their investigation on the efficacy of their vaccines against the new variant of concern. They expect to announce lab-based experimental results in two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，辉瑞和BioNTech早就为所谓的“逃逸变体”的出现做好了准备。该公司表示：“辉瑞和BioNTech(BNTX)几个月前采取了行动，能够在六周内适应mRNA疫苗，并在100天内运送第一批疫苗。”此外，Moderna(MRNA)、强生(JNJ)和阿斯利康(AZN)已开始调查其疫苗针对令人担忧的新变种的功效。他们预计将在两周内公布实验室实验结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer is The Market Leader in COVID-19 Vaccines</b></p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞是COVID-19疫苗的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98f222e0c383e30a5c184acf70d6240\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer enjoyed immense growth in its revenue since the first distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020. In barely a year, Pfizer bulldozed its way into delivering2.11B doses of its COVID-19 vaccine. In doing so, the company has inoculated 13.3% of the world's population with two doses of Comirnaty.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年12月首次分发COVID-19疫苗以来，辉瑞的收入实现了巨大增长。在不到一年的时间里，辉瑞公司就交付了21.1亿剂COVID-19疫苗。通过这样做，该公司已为全球13.3%的人口接种了两剂Comirnaty。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In FQ3'21, Pfizer recorded $24.1B in revenue, representing a 233.9% YoY growth compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. In the same quarter, Pfizer also reported growth in other segments. In FQ3'21, the Oncology and Hospital segments reported 31.4% and 24% growth from FQ3'19 sales, respectively. Furthermore, Eliquis (oral anticoagulant from Internal Medicine) and IBRANCE (breast cancer treatment from Oncology) generated $1.34B and $1.38 in sales. It represented a 31.3% and 7.6% increase from FQ3'19, respectively. The growth for Eliquiswas due to a 16% increase in prescription volume, while IBRANCE was driven by deferred diagnosis and treatment caused by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>21年第三季度，辉瑞的收入为$24.1 B，与COVID-19之前的水平相比同比增长233.9%。同一季度，辉瑞还报告了其他细分市场的增长。21年第3季度，肿瘤学和医院部门的销售额较19年第3季度分别增长31.4%和24%。此外，Eliquis（内科口服抗凝剂）和IBRANCE（肿瘤科乳腺癌治疗）的销售额分别为13.4亿美元和1.38美元。较2019年第三季度分别增长31.3%和7.6%。Eliquis的增长是由于处方量增加了16%，而IBRANCE则是由大流行导致的延迟诊断和治疗推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d00b01fc6db5a73811ce8f8d7e9de4f\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"521\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Revenue By Segment. Source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞按部门划分的收入。资料来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer also expects additional revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine due to the US FDA approval of its pediatric application in ages five to eleven. As of 22 November 2021, the Canadian,Malaysian, and Singapore governments have already approved or procured Comirnaty for the pediatric age group. Many other countries globally are also considering Comirnatyfor its young children. As the market leader in the COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer will also report its clinical results for those aged two to five by Q4'21 and six months to two years old by Q1'22. Furthermore, booster shots have been approved by the USCDCandEU public health agency for all adults. It paves the way for a robust recurring revenue market for Pfizer.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞还预计，由于美国FDA批准其5至11岁儿童应用，其COVID-19疫苗将获得额外收入。截至2021年11月22日，加拿大、马来西亚和新加坡政府已经批准或采购了儿科年龄组的Comirnaty。全球许多其他国家也在考虑为其幼儿提供Comirnaty。作为COVID-19疫苗的市场领导者，辉瑞还将在21年第四季度报告其针对2至5岁儿童的临床结果，并在22年第一季度报告针对6个月至2岁儿童的临床结果。此外，USCDCandEU公共卫生局已批准对所有成年人进行加强注射。它为辉瑞强劲的经常性收入市场铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer aims to distribute2.3B doses of its vaccines by the end of 2021, accounting for$36B of revenue. Furthermore, in FQ3'21, Pfizerraised its guidance for FY2021's total revenue to $81B to $82B. The difference is mainly attributed to robust sales in Comirnaty. The raised guidance also reflects the international community's confidence in Pfizer's vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的目标是到2021年底分发23亿剂疫苗，收入达360亿美元。此外，在21年第三季度，辉瑞将2021财年总收入指引上调至810亿美元至820亿美元。这一差异主要归因于Comirnaty的强劲销售。上调的指导意见也反映了国际社会对辉瑞疫苗的信心。</blockquote></p><p> But, consensus estimates expect Pfizer to post $81.3B in total revenue in FY2022, of which vaccine sales will account for $29B. The estimates suggest normalization in Comirnaty sales through FY2023, as COVID-19 becomes endemic.</p><p><blockquote>但是，普遍估计预计辉瑞2022财年的总收入将达到813亿美元，其中疫苗销售额将占290亿美元。这些估计表明，随着COVID-19的流行，Comirnaty销售额将在2023财年恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> However, we expect additional upside to Pfizer's revenue attributed to its antiviral COVID-19 candidate and the possibility of Pfizer's adapted vaccine against the Omicron variant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们预计辉瑞的收入将因其抗病毒COVID-19候选药物以及辉瑞针对奥密克戎变种的改编疫苗的可能性而出现额外增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a45c8c8167dd4302253c667fb7074bc9\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞预计收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 16 November 2021, Pfizer filed for EUA for PAXLOVID, its COVID-19 antiviral treatment. The treatment achieved 89% efficacy in clinical trials, which is better than Merck'sMolnupiravir at 30%. PAXLOVID's treatment is suitable for patients with mild to moderate symptoms, with a high risk of hospitalization or death. The US government also signed an Advanced Purchase Agreement(APA) for 10M doses, worth $529 per treatment course. The treatment may be delivered to the patients as early as Q4'21, upon FDA approval.SVB Leerinkestimated that PAXLOVID might account for an additional $24B in Pfizer's FY2022 revenue. Therefore, it could add further upside to Pfizer's vaccines revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年11月16日，辉瑞为其COVID-19抗病毒治疗药物PAXLOVID申请EUA。该疗法在临床试验中取得了89%的疗效，优于默沙东的Molnupiravir的30%。PAXLOVID的治疗适用于轻中度症状、住院或死亡风险较高的患者。美国政府还签署了1000万剂的提前购买协议（APA），每个疗程价值529美元。经FDA批准，该治疗最早可能于21年第四季度交付给患者。SVB Leerink估计PAXLOVID可能会为辉瑞2022财年的收入增加24B美元。因此，这可能会进一步增加辉瑞疫苗收入的上行空间。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore,Pfizer has licensed PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP), a United Nations-backed public health organization. It allows other generic drug manufacturers to produce the COVID-19 antiviral pill at lower prices. The reduced price will increase the pills' outreach to53% of the global population from 95 low- and middle-income countries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，辉瑞还获得了PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP)的许可，这是一个联合国支持的公共卫生组织。它允许其他仿制药制造商以更低的价格生产COVID-19抗病毒药丸。降价后，这些药丸的覆盖范围将扩大到来自95个中低收入国家的全球53%的人口。</blockquote></p><p> Thus far, Pfizer has demonstrated exemplary execution.The company has managed to clear its clinical trials and the US FDA regulatory processes/ approvals speedily. In addition, no other COVID-19 vaccine makers have come close to the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership regarding its COVID-19 vaccines revenue. Its success is attributed to decades-old expertise and existing infrastructure in the Pharmaceuticals industry, paired with BioNTech's brilliant mRNA technology.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，辉瑞已经展示了示例性的执行。该公司已设法迅速通过其临床试验和美国FDA监管程序/批准。此外，在COVID-19疫苗收入方面，没有其他COVID-19疫苗制造商能够接近辉瑞/BioNTech的合作伙伴关系。其成功归功于制药行业数十年的专业知识和现有基础设施，以及BioNTech出色的mRNA技术。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Pfizer has a solid portfolio of therapeutics, including Eliquis, IBRANCE, and the Prevnar family (Pneumococcal vaccine). These 3 drugs have accounted for $16.3B in revenue in the last twelve months (LTM).</p><p><blockquote>此外，辉瑞拥有坚实的治疗产品组合，包括Eliquis、IBRANCE和Prevnar家族（肺炎球菌疫苗）。这3种药物在过去12个月中的收入为$163亿(LTM)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer's Aggressive Product Pipeline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞积极的产品管线</b></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer continues to expand with94 programs in development. Of these, nine are in the registration stage, with 38 programs in phase 2/3 clinical trials. Furthermore, there are six mRNA programs in collaboration with BioNTech for COVID-19 vaccines and one directly under Pfizer for its mRNA Influenza vaccine (phase 1).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞继续扩张，有94个项目正在开发中。其中，9个项目处于注册阶段，38个项目处于2/3期临床试验阶段。此外，还有六个与BioNTech合作的新冠肺炎疫苗mRNA项目，以及一个直接隶属于辉瑞的mRNA流感疫苗项目（第一阶段）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Pfizer has also acquired and collaborated with many companies in multiple specializations, such as oncology, gene therapy, and cardiovascular treatment, as part of its long-term expansion plan. These investments have resulted in three approvals and four Emergency Use Authorizations, with many more in research and development. Over the next 18 months, Pfizer also expectsten program approvals. In addition, since 2019, Pfizer has:</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞还在肿瘤学、基因治疗和心血管治疗等多个专业领域收购并与许多公司合作，作为其长期扩张计划的一部分。这些投资已获得三项批准和四项紧急使用授权，还有更多处于研发阶段。在接下来的18个月里，辉瑞还预计该计划将获得批准。此外，自2019年以来，辉瑞已：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Acquired Array BioPharma, a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company specializing in Oncology</li> <li>Acquired Therachon, a pre-revenue biotechnology company with interests in Achondroplasia and Short Bowel Syndrome</li> <li>Acquired Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL), a pre-revenue immuno-oncology company specializing in Oncology</li> <li>Collaborated with Vivet Therapeutics for research on Wilson disease gene therapy</li> <li>Collaborated with Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (AKCA) for the treatment of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases</li> <li>Collaborated with Valneva SE (OTCPK:INRLF) for the development of Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15</li> <li>Collaborated with Myovant Sciences Ltd. (MYOV) for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer</li> <li>Collaborated with Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) to treat breast cancer and improve the efficacy of IBRANCE (Pfizer's approved breast cancer treatment) for metastatic settings</li> </ul> Pfizer'spipelineincludesmultiple research and developmentsuch as:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收购Array BioPharma，一家专门从事肿瘤学的预营收制药公司</li><li>收购Therachon，一家盈利前的生物技术公司，对软骨发育不全和短肠综合征感兴趣</li><li>收购Trillium Therapeutics Inc.(TRIL)，这是一家专门从事肿瘤学的预营收免疫肿瘤公司</li><li>与Vivet Therapeutics合作开展Wilson病基因疗法研究</li><li>与Akcea Therapeutics，Inc.(AKCA)合作治疗心血管和代谢疾病</li><li>与Valneva SE(OTCPK：INRLF)合作开发莱姆病候选疫苗VLA15</li><li>与Myovant Sciences Ltd.(MYOV)合作治疗晚期前列腺癌</li><li>与Arvinas，Inc.(ARVN)合作治疗乳腺癌并提高IBRANCE（辉瑞批准的乳腺癌治疗药物）在转移性环境中的疗效</li></ul>辉瑞的产品线包括多项研发，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Vaccines, including Prevnar 20 (Pneumococcal) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)</li> <li>Oncology, including the breast, prostate, and blood cancer</li> <li>Rare Diseases, including gene therapies for hemophilia A/B and Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy</li> <li>Internal Medicine, including diabetes</li> <li>Immunology and Inflammation, including rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and vitiligo</li> </ul> Based on its existing portfolio and pipeline, Pfizer guided future revenue growth at a CAGR of 6% through FY2025. The guidance does not include its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, or potential earnings from future mRNA programs. Nevertheless, it shows that Pfizer is confident in its future growth despite the normalization from the Cominarty sales. With an arsenal of profitable therapeutics and promising research and development, Pfizer looks fantastic as an anchor investment for a pharmaceutical investor.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>疫苗，包括Prevnar 20（肺炎球菌）和呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)</li><li>肿瘤学，包括乳腺癌、前列腺癌和血癌</li><li>罕见疾病，包括血友病A/B和杜氏肌营养不良症的基因疗法</li><li>内科，包括糖尿病</li><li>免疫学和炎症，包括类风湿性关节炎、炎症性肠病和白癜风</li></ul>根据其现有的产品组合和产品线，辉瑞预计到2025财年未来收入的复合年增长率为6%。该指南不包括其COVID-19疫苗、Comirnaty或未来mRNA项目的潜在收入。尽管如此，这表明辉瑞对其未来的增长充满信心，尽管Cominarty销售正常化。辉瑞拥有一系列盈利的治疗方法和有前途的研发，作为制药投资者的主要投资，看起来非常棒。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Novavax's Nascent Foray into The BioTech Sector</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Novavax进军生物技术领域</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee7b67ab7c5e746455428648918245c\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Emergency Use Authorisation Application. Source:Novavax</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>紧急使用授权申请。资料来源：Novavax</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Novavax has already obtained its EUA approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, in Indonesian 1 November 2021 and the Philippineson 17 November 2021. Furthermore, many other approvals are pending in the UK, Australia, Canada, Europe, WHO, India, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore. To prepare for the regulatory approval and potential rollout of its vaccines, Novavax has increased its manufacturing capacity in multiple territories, up to 150M vaccine doses a month. As a result, the company projected over2B doses to be distributed in FY2022. The established global supply chain for the production of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine includes:</p><p><blockquote>Novavax的COVID-19疫苗NVX-CoV2373已于2021年11月1日在印度尼西亚和2021年11月17日在菲律宾获得EUA批准。此外，在英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、欧洲、世卫组织、印度、新西兰、韩国和新加坡，许多其他批准正在等待中。为了为其疫苗的监管批准和潜在推出做准备，Novavax提高了其在多个地区的生产能力，每月高达1.5亿剂疫苗。因此，该公司预计2022财年将分发超过2B剂量。诺瓦瓦克斯新冠疫苗生产已建立的全球供应链包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Serum Institute of India</li> <li>Novavax's site in the Czech Republic and Sweden</li> <li>SK Bioscience Co in South Korea</li> <li>Takeda Pharmaceutical Company in Japan</li> <li>Biofibre in Spain</li> <li>Fujifilm in the US and UK</li> <li>Mabion in Poland</li> <li>the National Research Council in Poland and Canada</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c9f5618ee41b46f9f2325c8a28c011\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Global Supply Chain. Source:Novavax</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>印度血清研究所</li><li>Novavax位于捷克共和国和瑞典的工厂</li><li>韩国SK Bioscience Co</li><li>日本武田制药公司</li><li>西班牙的生物纤维</li><li>富士胶片在美国和英国</li><li>Mabion在波兰</li><li>波兰和加拿大国家研究委员会</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺瓦瓦克斯全球供应链。资料来源：Novavax</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34de59290b1dc616668e3a0fb2936290\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺瓦瓦克斯收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In FQ3'21, Novavax reported$179M revenue. The number includes $98M from government contracts, $41M from CEPI grant revenue, and $40M from royalty revenue. The royalty revenue came from SK Biosciences' sales of NVX-CoV2373 antigen components to the government. Novavax is expected to report revenue of $1.4B for FY2021. The sales will include part of the$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to be shipped globally.</p><p><blockquote>21年第三季度，Novavax报告收入为1.79亿美元。这一数字包括来自政府合同的9800万美元、来自CEPI拨款收入的4100万美元和来自特许权使用费收入的4000万美元。特许权使用费收入来自SK Biosciences向政府销售NVX-CoV2373抗原成分。Novavax预计2021财年收入为$1.4 B。此次销售将包括价值70亿美元的NVX-CoV2373预购协议的一部分，将在全球范围内发货。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0b307cda2b15d1695dd4762af1c3a0\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Novavax Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Novavax预计收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, Novavax has several COVID-19 clinical trials in progress globally. The US and Australian trial participants have received their booster shots at 6 and 12 months after the two-dose regimen. The company previously reported that the6 monthly boosters shot sufficiently increased the functional levels of wild-type neutralization and the IgG antibody. With such promising results, Novavax aims to complete its booster clinical trial for regulatory submissions as well.</p><p><blockquote>目前，Novavax在全球有多项新冠临床试验正在进行中。美国和澳大利亚的试验参与者在两剂方案后6个月和12个月接受了加强注射。该公司此前报告称，每月6次加强注射足以提高野生型中和和IgG抗体的功能水平。凭借如此有希望的结果，Novavax的目标是完成其加强临床试验并提交监管机构。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, Novavax aims to complete its regulatory submission globally, especially to the US FDA and EMA. In addition, the company will also proceed with the dosage selection for its combinedNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373clinical trial (to be further discussed later).</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，Novavax的目标是在全球范围内完成监管提交，特别是向美国FDA和EMA提交。此外，该公司还将继续进行其联合NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373临床试验的剂量选择（稍后将进一步讨论）。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax's Robust Pipeline In Influenza</p><p><blockquote>Novavax强大的流感产品线</blockquote></p><p> Beyond its COVID-19 vaccine, Novavax has eight other programs in development. There are three in Phase 2/3 clinical stage, which are ResVax, RSV F, and NanoFlu. Both ResVax and RSV F targets Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in different age groups. However, both have not passed the necessary clinical test. Therefore, they also do not have the required efficacy for EMA & FDA approval.</p><p><blockquote>除了COVID-19疫苗之外，Novavax还有其他八个项目正在开发中。处于2/3期临床阶段的有3款，分别是ResVax、RSV F、NanoFlu。ResVax和RSV F均针对不同年龄组的呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）。然而，两者都没有通过必要的临床测试。因此，它们也不具有EMA和FDA批准所需的功效。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, NanoFlu has recorded top-line results for both clinical trialsagainstSanofi's approved flu vaccine Fluzone Quadrivalent. Sanofi is currently the largest manufacturer of influenza vaccines in the world. Notably, Sanofi supplied250 million doses of Influenza vaccines globally in 2020, worth$2.9B in sales. Therefore, Novavax may capitalize on a massive global Influenza market. As of early 2020, the US FDA has already granted NanoFlu a Fast Track Designation. In September 2021, Novavax also published the NanoFlu Influenza Vaccine Phase 3 Clinical Trial results. However, it remains to be seen when Novavax will file for US FDA approval and if it will be granted.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，NanoFlu在针对赛诺菲批准的流感疫苗Fluzone Quadrivalent的两项临床试验中都取得了顶线结果。赛诺菲是目前全球最大的流感疫苗生产商。值得注意的是，赛诺菲2020年在全球供应了2.5亿剂流感疫苗，销售额价值29亿美元。因此，Novavax可能会利用巨大的全球流感市场。截至2020年初，美国FDA已经授予NanoFlu快速通道资格。2021年9月，Novavax还公布了NanoFlu流感疫苗3期临床试验结果。然而，Novavax何时申请美国FDA批准以及是否会获得批准还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, in May 2021, Novavax announced the results of its combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373in a pre-clinical test. The combined vaccine is a potential breakthrough as an annual COVID-19 booster shot and Influenza vaccine. Phase III clinical (animal) trials have detected little virus or none in the upper and lower respiratory tracts. In September 2021, Novavax initiated the combined vaccine trial Phase I/II in Australia for 640 healthy adults aged 50 to 70 years. These participants had either been fully vaccinated or previously infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.</p><p><blockquote>此外，2021年5月，Novavax公布了其联合疫苗NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373在临床前测试中的结果。作为年度新冠肺炎加强针和流感疫苗，这种联合疫苗是一个潜在的突破。III期临床（动物）试验在上呼吸道和下呼吸道中检测到很少或没有病毒。2021年9月，Novavax在澳大利亚启动了针对640名50至70岁健康成年人的联合疫苗试验I/II期。这些参与者要么已经完全接种了疫苗，要么以前感染过新型冠状病毒病毒。</blockquote></p><p> In November 2021, Novavax published the full results of a combined vaccine trial involving NVX-CoV2373 and an approved influenza vaccine from Seqirus UK Limited. It proves that there are no safety issues while relatively preserving the immune responses from both vaccines. As a result, the combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373may have a massive impact as the alternative to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, combined with a highly effective Influenza shot.</p><p><blockquote>2021年11月，Novavax公布了涉及NVX-CoV2373和Seqirus UK Limited批准的流感疫苗的联合疫苗试验的全部结果。它证明了在相对保留两种疫苗的免疫应答的同时不存在安全性问题。因此，联合疫苗NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373作为mRNA新冠肺炎疫苗的替代品，与高效流感疫苗相结合，可能会产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> Compared to Pfizer's pipeline, Novavax's pipeline appear to have more concentrated applications and less diversified. However, we cannot discount that Novavax has only started to get its momentum going while Pfizer is already leading the herd. They are at entirely different scales and timeline altogether. We believe that NanoFlu has shown great potential in its clinical trials. Upon regulatory approval, NanoFlu could generate substantial revenue from the global Influenza vaccines market, which is expected to exceed$9.5B by 2027.</p><p><blockquote>与辉瑞的管线相比，Novavax的管线似乎应用更加集中，多元化程度较低。然而，我们不能忽视Novavax才刚刚开始发展势头，而辉瑞已经处于领先地位。它们处于完全不同的规模和时间线。我们认为，NanoFlu在其临床试验中已经显示出巨大的潜力。一旦获得监管部门批准，NanoFlu可以从全球流感疫苗市场产生大量收入，预计到2027年将超过$9.5 B。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, Which Stock is The Better Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，哪只股票更好买呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132d624d7587dac52e1a3f2a2458ac72\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pfizer And Novavax EV/ Fwd Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>辉瑞和Novavax EV/Fwd收入。资料来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Pfizer stock is currently trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.56x. It's significantly lower than its peers' comps set mean of 6.57x. Meanwhile, Novavax stock is trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.1x, considering the $7B purchase obligations. Furthermore, both are lower than Moderna stock at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 5.83x. As compared to Moderna and Pfizer stock, Novavax stock certainly looks like a huge bargain now.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞股票目前的EV/2022财年收入为3.56倍。它明显低于同行6.57倍的比较平均值。与此同时，考虑到70亿美元的购买义务，Novavax股票的EV/2022财年收入为3.1倍。此外，两者的EV/2022财年收入均低于Moderna股票的5.83倍。与Moderna和辉瑞股票相比，Novavax股票现在看起来确实很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax has already obtained its EUA approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines, with many more pending globally. Its stock also looks attractive due to its potential mass rollout in lower-income countries. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that Novavax is still a fledgling company compared to Pfizer's decades-old experience. Investors looking for a reliable stock with a strong dividend payout should buy Pfizer stock at its dips. Moreover, Pfizer stock has had a discernible long-term uptrend over the last five years. PFE stock looks like a solid anchor stock for any pharmaceutical investor, given its robust pipeline, immaculate execution, and stable profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax已在印度尼西亚和菲律宾获得EUA批准，全球还有更多批准正在等待批准。由于其有可能在低收入国家大规模推出，其股票看起来也很有吸引力。尽管如此，我们承认，与辉瑞数十年的经验相比，Novavax仍然是一家羽翼未丰的公司。寻找股息支付强劲的可靠股票的投资者应该逢低买入辉瑞股票。此外，辉瑞股票在过去五年中呈现出明显的长期上升趋势。鉴于其强大的产品线、完美的执行力和稳定的盈利能力，PFE股票对于任何制药投资者来说都是一只可靠的锚定股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Therefore, we rate both stocks at Buy.</i>However, we consider NVAX stock as more of a speculative play than a core anchor stock. Therefore, for investors who are more conservative, PFE stock might be a better buy. Nonetheless, NVAX stock could offer huge potential upside as a speculative stock in a well-diversified pharma portfolio.</p><p><blockquote><i>因此，我们对这两只股票的评级均为买入。</i>然而，我们认为NVAX股票更多的是一种投机行为，而不是核心支柱股票。因此，对于更保守的投资者来说，PFE股票可能是更好的买入选择。尽管如此，作为多元化制药投资组合中的投机性股票，NVAX股票可能会提供巨大的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472461-novavax-vs-pfizer-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472461-novavax-vs-pfizer-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143190844","content_text":"Summary\n\nPfizer expects Comirnaty to account for $36B in revenue in FY21 and $29B in sales in FY22.\nPfizer recently filed for the Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 antiviral candidate, PAXLOVID, which is expected to bring in $24B in sales in FY22.\nNovavax obtained its regulatory approvals for NVX-CoV2373 in both Indonesia and the Philippines. The company can finally start fulfilling its $7B worth of purchase obligations.\nWe discuss which stock is the better buy for investors now.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nPfizer (PFE) expects to sell2.3B of its vaccines in FY2021, representing up to 44.5% of total projected sales of $82B. In addition, the company guided Cominarty sales to account for $36B of revenue in FY2021 and $29B in FY2022. Pfizer also recently submitted itsCOVID-19 Antiviral Candidate, PAXLOVID, for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) in the US. PAXLOVID achieved89% efficacy in its clinical trials in reducing the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death. As a result,SVB Leerinkestimates PAXLOVID to bring in $24B of sales for Pfizer in FY2022.\nNovavax (NVAX) has$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to fulfill by FY2022. Novavax has also finally obtained its regulatory approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines while awaiting approvals in many other countries. Though Novavax has yet to submit for US FDA approval, we believe its vaccine could have more potential within the lower-income countries.\nWe discuss which stock is the better buy now.\nOmicron - The Variant Of Concern\nOn 14 November 2021, a new variant of the COVID-19 virus, B.1.1.529,Omicron, was detected in Gauteng, South Africa. Scientists hypothesized that the Omicron could be an escape variant due to the doubling of mutations compared to the Delta variant. As the most predominant strain globally,CDC reported that the Delta variant caused more infections and spread faster than its early forms. Some scientists have indicated that the high number of mutations may be linked to its resistance to antibodies and possibly be more contagious. Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said:\n\n Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees.\" (BBC)\n\nFurthermore, the new highly mutated virus is considerably different from those originally used to design the existing COVID-19 vaccines. As a result, there is a legitimate concern that Omicron may\"elude the targeted immune response\"by the current vaccines and be highly virulent. Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Britain's Warwick University, said,\n\n This new variant of the COVID-19 virus is very worrying. It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date. Some of the mutations that are similar to changes we've seen in other variants of concern are associated with enhanced transmissibility and with partial resistance to immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection.\" (CNA)\n\nAs a result of the discovery, countries have placed travel restrictions on those arriving from Africa. It includes the US, EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and many others. In addition, the stock market has also been affected, especially those in the travel and hospitality industry. Many expect that the Omicron may cause another surge in lockdowns and further delay the global recovery from the pandemic. It is worrying indeed since international travel lanes have just reopened in early November 2021.\nNonetheless,Pfizer and BioNTechhave long prepared for the emergence of the supposed \"escape variant.\" \"Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) took actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days,\" the company said. In addition, Moderna (MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AstraZeneca (AZN) have started their investigation on the efficacy of their vaccines against the new variant of concern. They expect to announce lab-based experimental results in two weeks.\nPfizer is The Market Leader in COVID-19 Vaccines\nPfizer Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nPfizer enjoyed immense growth in its revenue since the first distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020. In barely a year, Pfizer bulldozed its way into delivering2.11B doses of its COVID-19 vaccine. In doing so, the company has inoculated 13.3% of the world's population with two doses of Comirnaty.\nIn FQ3'21, Pfizer recorded $24.1B in revenue, representing a 233.9% YoY growth compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. In the same quarter, Pfizer also reported growth in other segments. In FQ3'21, the Oncology and Hospital segments reported 31.4% and 24% growth from FQ3'19 sales, respectively. Furthermore, Eliquis (oral anticoagulant from Internal Medicine) and IBRANCE (breast cancer treatment from Oncology) generated $1.34B and $1.38 in sales. It represented a 31.3% and 7.6% increase from FQ3'19, respectively. The growth for Eliquiswas due to a 16% increase in prescription volume, while IBRANCE was driven by deferred diagnosis and treatment caused by the pandemic.\nPfizer Revenue By Segment. Source: Company filings\nPfizer also expects additional revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine due to the US FDA approval of its pediatric application in ages five to eleven. As of 22 November 2021, the Canadian,Malaysian, and Singapore governments have already approved or procured Comirnaty for the pediatric age group. Many other countries globally are also considering Comirnatyfor its young children. As the market leader in the COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer will also report its clinical results for those aged two to five by Q4'21 and six months to two years old by Q1'22. Furthermore, booster shots have been approved by the USCDCandEU public health agency for all adults. It paves the way for a robust recurring revenue market for Pfizer.\nPfizer aims to distribute2.3B doses of its vaccines by the end of 2021, accounting for$36B of revenue. Furthermore, in FQ3'21, Pfizerraised its guidance for FY2021's total revenue to $81B to $82B. The difference is mainly attributed to robust sales in Comirnaty. The raised guidance also reflects the international community's confidence in Pfizer's vaccine.\nBut, consensus estimates expect Pfizer to post $81.3B in total revenue in FY2022, of which vaccine sales will account for $29B. The estimates suggest normalization in Comirnaty sales through FY2023, as COVID-19 becomes endemic.\nHowever, we expect additional upside to Pfizer's revenue attributed to its antiviral COVID-19 candidate and the possibility of Pfizer's adapted vaccine against the Omicron variant.\nPfizer Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOn 16 November 2021, Pfizer filed for EUA for PAXLOVID, its COVID-19 antiviral treatment. The treatment achieved 89% efficacy in clinical trials, which is better than Merck'sMolnupiravir at 30%. PAXLOVID's treatment is suitable for patients with mild to moderate symptoms, with a high risk of hospitalization or death. The US government also signed an Advanced Purchase Agreement(APA) for 10M doses, worth $529 per treatment course. The treatment may be delivered to the patients as early as Q4'21, upon FDA approval.SVB Leerinkestimated that PAXLOVID might account for an additional $24B in Pfizer's FY2022 revenue. Therefore, it could add further upside to Pfizer's vaccines revenue.\nFurthermore,Pfizer has licensed PAXLOVIDto Medicines Patent Pool(MPP), a United Nations-backed public health organization. It allows other generic drug manufacturers to produce the COVID-19 antiviral pill at lower prices. The reduced price will increase the pills' outreach to53% of the global population from 95 low- and middle-income countries.\nThus far, Pfizer has demonstrated exemplary execution.The company has managed to clear its clinical trials and the US FDA regulatory processes/ approvals speedily. In addition, no other COVID-19 vaccine makers have come close to the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership regarding its COVID-19 vaccines revenue. Its success is attributed to decades-old expertise and existing infrastructure in the Pharmaceuticals industry, paired with BioNTech's brilliant mRNA technology.\nMoreover, Pfizer has a solid portfolio of therapeutics, including Eliquis, IBRANCE, and the Prevnar family (Pneumococcal vaccine). These 3 drugs have accounted for $16.3B in revenue in the last twelve months (LTM).\nPfizer's Aggressive Product Pipeline\nPfizer continues to expand with94 programs in development. Of these, nine are in the registration stage, with 38 programs in phase 2/3 clinical trials. Furthermore, there are six mRNA programs in collaboration with BioNTech for COVID-19 vaccines and one directly under Pfizer for its mRNA Influenza vaccine (phase 1).\nPfizer has also acquired and collaborated with many companies in multiple specializations, such as oncology, gene therapy, and cardiovascular treatment, as part of its long-term expansion plan. These investments have resulted in three approvals and four Emergency Use Authorizations, with many more in research and development. Over the next 18 months, Pfizer also expectsten program approvals. In addition, since 2019, Pfizer has:\n\nAcquired Array BioPharma, a pre-revenue pharmaceutical company specializing in Oncology\nAcquired Therachon, a pre-revenue biotechnology company with interests in Achondroplasia and Short Bowel Syndrome\nAcquired Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL), a pre-revenue immuno-oncology company specializing in Oncology\nCollaborated with Vivet Therapeutics for research on Wilson disease gene therapy\nCollaborated with Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (AKCA) for the treatment of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases\nCollaborated with Valneva SE (OTCPK:INRLF) for the development of Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15\nCollaborated with Myovant Sciences Ltd. (MYOV) for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer\nCollaborated with Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) to treat breast cancer and improve the efficacy of IBRANCE (Pfizer's approved breast cancer treatment) for metastatic settings\n\nPfizer'spipelineincludesmultiple research and developmentsuch as:\n\nVaccines, including Prevnar 20 (Pneumococcal) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)\nOncology, including the breast, prostate, and blood cancer\nRare Diseases, including gene therapies for hemophilia A/B and Duchenne's Muscular Dystrophy\nInternal Medicine, including diabetes\nImmunology and Inflammation, including rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and vitiligo\n\nBased on its existing portfolio and pipeline, Pfizer guided future revenue growth at a CAGR of 6% through FY2025. The guidance does not include its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, or potential earnings from future mRNA programs. Nevertheless, it shows that Pfizer is confident in its future growth despite the normalization from the Cominarty sales. With an arsenal of profitable therapeutics and promising research and development, Pfizer looks fantastic as an anchor investment for a pharmaceutical investor.\nNovavax's Nascent Foray into The BioTech Sector\nEmergency Use Authorisation Application. Source:Novavax\nNovavax has already obtained its EUA approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, in Indonesian 1 November 2021 and the Philippineson 17 November 2021. Furthermore, many other approvals are pending in the UK, Australia, Canada, Europe, WHO, India, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore. To prepare for the regulatory approval and potential rollout of its vaccines, Novavax has increased its manufacturing capacity in multiple territories, up to 150M vaccine doses a month. As a result, the company projected over2B doses to be distributed in FY2022. The established global supply chain for the production of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine includes:\n\nSerum Institute of India\nNovavax's site in the Czech Republic and Sweden\nSK Bioscience Co in South Korea\nTakeda Pharmaceutical Company in Japan\nBiofibre in Spain\nFujifilm in the US and UK\nMabion in Poland\nthe National Research Council in Poland and Canada\n\nNovavax Global Supply Chain. Source:Novavax\nNovavax Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn FQ3'21, Novavax reported$179M revenue. The number includes $98M from government contracts, $41M from CEPI grant revenue, and $40M from royalty revenue. The royalty revenue came from SK Biosciences' sales of NVX-CoV2373 antigen components to the government. Novavax is expected to report revenue of $1.4B for FY2021. The sales will include part of the$7B worth of Advance Purchase Agreements of NVX-CoV2373 to be shipped globally.\nNovavax Projected Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nCurrently, Novavax has several COVID-19 clinical trials in progress globally. The US and Australian trial participants have received their booster shots at 6 and 12 months after the two-dose regimen. The company previously reported that the6 monthly boosters shot sufficiently increased the functional levels of wild-type neutralization and the IgG antibody. With such promising results, Novavax aims to complete its booster clinical trial for regulatory submissions as well.\nBy the end of 2021, Novavax aims to complete its regulatory submission globally, especially to the US FDA and EMA. In addition, the company will also proceed with the dosage selection for its combinedNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373clinical trial (to be further discussed later).\nNovavax's Robust Pipeline In Influenza\nBeyond its COVID-19 vaccine, Novavax has eight other programs in development. There are three in Phase 2/3 clinical stage, which are ResVax, RSV F, and NanoFlu. Both ResVax and RSV F targets Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in different age groups. However, both have not passed the necessary clinical test. Therefore, they also do not have the required efficacy for EMA & FDA approval.\nOn the other hand, NanoFlu has recorded top-line results for both clinical trialsagainstSanofi's approved flu vaccine Fluzone Quadrivalent. Sanofi is currently the largest manufacturer of influenza vaccines in the world. Notably, Sanofi supplied250 million doses of Influenza vaccines globally in 2020, worth$2.9B in sales. Therefore, Novavax may capitalize on a massive global Influenza market. As of early 2020, the US FDA has already granted NanoFlu a Fast Track Designation. In September 2021, Novavax also published the NanoFlu Influenza Vaccine Phase 3 Clinical Trial results. However, it remains to be seen when Novavax will file for US FDA approval and if it will be granted.\nFurthermore, in May 2021, Novavax announced the results of its combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373in a pre-clinical test. The combined vaccine is a potential breakthrough as an annual COVID-19 booster shot and Influenza vaccine. Phase III clinical (animal) trials have detected little virus or none in the upper and lower respiratory tracts. In September 2021, Novavax initiated the combined vaccine trial Phase I/II in Australia for 640 healthy adults aged 50 to 70 years. These participants had either been fully vaccinated or previously infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.\nIn November 2021, Novavax published the full results of a combined vaccine trial involving NVX-CoV2373 and an approved influenza vaccine from Seqirus UK Limited. It proves that there are no safety issues while relatively preserving the immune responses from both vaccines. As a result, the combined vaccineNanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373may have a massive impact as the alternative to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, combined with a highly effective Influenza shot.\nCompared to Pfizer's pipeline, Novavax's pipeline appear to have more concentrated applications and less diversified. However, we cannot discount that Novavax has only started to get its momentum going while Pfizer is already leading the herd. They are at entirely different scales and timeline altogether. We believe that NanoFlu has shown great potential in its clinical trials. Upon regulatory approval, NanoFlu could generate substantial revenue from the global Influenza vaccines market, which is expected to exceed$9.5B by 2027.\nSo, Which Stock is The Better Buy?\nPfizer And Novavax EV/ Fwd Revenue. Source: S&P Capital IQ\nPfizer stock is currently trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.56x. It's significantly lower than its peers' comps set mean of 6.57x. Meanwhile, Novavax stock is trading at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 3.1x, considering the $7B purchase obligations. Furthermore, both are lower than Moderna stock at an EV/FY2022 revenue of 5.83x. As compared to Moderna and Pfizer stock, Novavax stock certainly looks like a huge bargain now.\nNovavax has already obtained its EUA approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines, with many more pending globally. Its stock also looks attractive due to its potential mass rollout in lower-income countries. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that Novavax is still a fledgling company compared to Pfizer's decades-old experience. Investors looking for a reliable stock with a strong dividend payout should buy Pfizer stock at its dips. Moreover, Pfizer stock has had a discernible long-term uptrend over the last five years. PFE stock looks like a solid anchor stock for any pharmaceutical investor, given its robust pipeline, immaculate execution, and stable profitability.\nTherefore, we rate both stocks at Buy.However, we consider NVAX stock as more of a speculative play than a core anchor stock. Therefore, for investors who are more conservative, PFE stock might be a better buy. Nonetheless, NVAX stock could offer huge potential upside as a speculative stock in a well-diversified pharma portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":42,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603086737"}
精彩评论