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2021-12-09

2022 is low caps year. Wait n see

'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对 2022 年美国股市的看法</blockquote>

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Wait n see","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602546909","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对 2022 年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>他表示：“2022 年将是关键的一年，届时全球大流行造成的失衡将开始得到解决，商业周期将从极端情况恢复正常。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“边际收紧的货币政策 ”应成为 2022 年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>最近市场波动性的飙升可能预示着 2022 年美国股市将更加坎坷，因为投资者正在应对疫情期间货币政策的拐点。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给 2022 年的前景带来了一点麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎受到一些早期迹象的鼓舞，表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数 (VIX) 在 11 月下旬上涨，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于 200 天移动平均线。数据显示，VIX 上周自 2021 年第一季度以来首次突破 30 点，市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能比投资者预期更快地从市场上取消部分宽松措施感到不安。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张情绪。”她表示，美联储预计明年可能加息将具有更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着 2022 年加息幅度将超过目前预期，从而造成更多市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的增长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet 的数据显示，截至周二，标普500指数在 2021 年上涨近 25% 后，有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财 (Charles Schwab) 首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普 (Jeffrey Kleintop) 通过电话告诉 MarketWatch，美国股市明年可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“同时波动性更高”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会加剧，其中包括在 COVID-19 危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退，以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松警惕”。她预计明年股市回报率将比 2021 年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在一份 2022 年展望报告中表示，“大部分股市上涨空间应该会在现在到 2022 年上半年之间实现”，“届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最为强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行一直在推出对标普500 2022年的预测，其中高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美国股市的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛 12 月 3 日发布的投资组合策略研究报告，预计 2022 年底标普500将达到 5,100 点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“盈利强劲增长”和供应链困境缓解。加拿大皇家银行资本市场 (RBC Capital Markets) 预测的目标价与摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 相同，而德意志银行 (Deutsche Bank) 根据其首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，预计明年标普500将收于 5,000 美元。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团 10 月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将 2022 年底的标普500目标设定为 4,900 人。巴克莱银行在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将在 4,800 点以下收盘。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在 12 月 2 日发布的 2022 年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”他们表示：“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限。”他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持适度的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对明年标普500的目标价低于巴克莱银行，美国银行上个月的一份全球研究报告显示，该基准将在 2022 年底达到 4,600 点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 在 11 月下旬有关美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天和 2000 年（科技泡沫顶峰）之间有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，这使得标普500低于该指数周二收盘价 4,686.75 点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使预计盈利增长，到 2022 年底，标普500的基本情况预测仍为 4,400 人。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官 Lisa Shalett 在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将出现区间波动，扣除通胀后债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，以便为更大的实物资产敞口和绝对回报资金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>沙莱特表示，摩根士丹利对标普500“谨慎”看法的核心是基于“周期中期过渡”期间通常会压缩的市盈率。她在笔记中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期转型”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为 12 月。6,2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>图表显示“标普500股票的中位数已从 52 周高点修正了 15%”，但根据她的报告，目前占其市值 40% 的 15 家最大公司一直保持该指数的高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>沙莱特表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但由于金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然充满挑战，我们不太相信它们在 2022 年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前 15 家公司的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三发布的报告称，预计“国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场细分市场将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技含量高的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对利率上升和货币政策略微收紧的预期，这应该会给纳斯达克等高倍数市场带来阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉 MarketWatch，在“中周期”期间，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长者”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，而该领域的股票押注可以充当投资组合的“波动性抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国 iShares megatrend 和国际 ETF 主管 Jeff Spiegel 表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速发展的三大趋势之一。FactSet 数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF 的股价今年上涨了约 0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>《明镜周刊》在本月的一份报告中写道，2022 年值得关注的另外两个大趋势是通过云、5G 和网络安全加强的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该“应对疫情期间持续的供应链瓶颈和工资通胀”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财旗下的 Kleintop 表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临过剩问题，而不是短缺问题。”“这将有助于降低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，从而使激进的加息路径不太可能。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里 (Deepak Puri) 在周一的媒体简报会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 上周暗示可能加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在 2022 年加息三次。关于他明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，虽然美联储可能会在缩减债券购买规模方面变得更加积极，可能会在 3 月份而不是 6 月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年仍将在利率问题上保持“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于市场共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的沙莱特在她的 2022 年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的再通胀再平衡，其中较高的名义利率和实际利率反映了较高的平均增长率和通货膨胀率。”她还预计收益率曲线将陡峭，利润率将受到成本上升的挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将受到压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国国内，我们喜欢重新开放和再通胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该银行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇 (Marko Kolanovic) 表示：“我们的观点是，2022 年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束以及 COVID-19 爆发前恢复正常状态的一年。”该银行全球联席研究主管侯赛因·马利克 (Hussein Malik) 在周三的报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>沙莱特表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022 年将是关键的一年，届时全球大流行造成的失衡将开始解决，商业周期将从极端情况恢复正常。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数 (VIX) 在 11 月下旬上涨，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于 200 天移动平均线。数据显示，VIX 上周自 2021 年第一季度以来首次突破 30 点，市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能比投资者预期更快地从市场上取消部分宽松措施感到不安。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张情绪。”她表示，美联储预计明年可能加息将具有更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着 2022 年加息幅度将超过目前预期，从而造成更多市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的增长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet 的数据显示，截至周二，标普500指数在 2021 年上涨近 25% 后，有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财 (Charles Schwab) 首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普 (Jeffrey Kleintop) 通过电话告诉 MarketWatch，美国股市明年可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“同时波动性更高”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会加剧，其中包括在 COVID-19 危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退，以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松警惕”。她预计明年股市回报率将比 2021 年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在一份 2022 年展望报告中表示，“大部分股市上涨空间应该会在现在到 2022 年上半年之间实现”，“届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最为强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行一直在推出对标普500 2022年的预测，其中高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美国股市的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛 12 月 3 日发布的投资组合策略研究报告，预计 2022 年底标普500将达到 5,100 点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“盈利强劲增长”和供应链困境缓解。加拿大皇家银行资本市场 (RBC Capital Markets) 预测的目标价与摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 相同，而德意志银行 (Deutsche Bank) 根据其首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，预计明年标普500将收于 5,000 美元。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团 10 月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将 2022 年底的标普500目标设定为 4,900 人。巴克莱银行在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将在 4,800 点以下收盘。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在 12 月 2 日发布的 2022 年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”他们表示：“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限。”他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持适度的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对明年标普500的目标价低于巴克莱银行，美国银行上个月的一份全球研究报告显示，该基准将在 2022 年底达到 4,600 点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 在 11 月下旬有关美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天和 2000 年（科技泡沫顶峰）之间有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，这使得标普500低于该指数周二收盘价 4,686.75 点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使预计盈利增长，到 2022 年底，标普500的基本情况预测仍为 4,400 人。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官 Lisa Shalett 在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将出现区间波动，扣除通胀后债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，以便为更大的实物资产敞口和绝对回报资金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>沙莱特表示，摩根士丹利对标普500“谨慎”看法的核心是基于“周期中期过渡”期间通常会压缩的市盈率。她在笔记中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期转型”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为 12 月。6,2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>图表显示“标普500股票的中位数已从 52 周高点修正了 15%”，但根据她的报告，目前占其市值 40% 的 15 家最大公司一直保持该指数的高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>沙莱特表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但由于金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然充满挑战，我们不太相信它们在 2022 年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前 15 家公司的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三发布的报告称，预计“国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场细分市场将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技含量高的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对利率上升和货币政策略微收紧的预期，这应该会给纳斯达克等高倍数市场带来阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉 MarketWatch，在“中周期”期间，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长者”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，而该领域的股票押注可以充当投资组合的“波动性抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国 iShares megatrend 和国际 ETF 主管 Jeff Spiegel 表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速发展的三大趋势之一。FactSet 数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF 的股价今年上涨了约 0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>《明镜周刊》在本月的一份报告中写道，2022 年值得关注的另外两个大趋势是通过云、5G 和网络安全加强的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该“应对疫情期间持续的供应链瓶颈和工资通胀”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财旗下的 Kleintop 表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临过剩问题，而不是短缺问题。”“这将有助于降低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，从而使激进的加息路径不太可能。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里 (Deepak Puri) 在周一的媒体简报会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 上周暗示可能加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在 2022 年加息三次。关于他明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，虽然美联储可能会在缩减债券购买规模方面变得更加积极，可能会在 3 月份而不是 6 月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年仍将在利率问题上保持“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于市场共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的沙莱特在她的 2022 年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的再通胀再平衡，其中较高的名义利率和实际利率反映了较高的平均增长率和通货膨胀率。”她还预计收益率曲线将陡峭，利润率将受到成本上升的挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将受到压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国国内，我们喜欢重新开放和再通胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该银行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇 (Marko Kolanovic) 表示：“我们的观点是，2022 年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束以及 COVID-19 爆发前恢复正常状态的一年。”该银行全球联席研究主管侯赛因·马利克 (Hussein Malik) 在周三的报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>沙莱特表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022 年将是关键的一年，届时全球大流行造成的失衡将开始解决，商业周期将从极端情况恢复正常。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"END":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3022,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/602546909"}