西海岸lucky仔
06-22
发出来股价就1200了,要你说…
花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元,Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%
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left;\">近期季度预测同步上调,财年盈利展望大幅跃升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次不仅调整全年预测,亦同步上调近期季度预估。<strong>报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%,第四季度上调5%,第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%,主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按最新预测,美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元,2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元,2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面,预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元,2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著,充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%,2027财年进一步升至82.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edc000190573a8d87e21f4692d11420\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"672\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">现货价格领涨,合约价格上行空间仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示,DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%,自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%,花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按季度拆分,花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%;NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%,受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">供需缺口料延续至2027年,HBM成下阶段核心催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%,且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出,今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM,而非高带宽内存(HBM),预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升,成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供给端方面,TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%,美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出,DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用,例如KV缓存卸载技术,这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外,报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象,进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f072bbda584ae97a15d31c4f133565\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价反映高利润率风险,长协进展受投资者关注</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观,花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍,显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险,以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者当前关注的核心议题包括:美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议(LTA)的签署进展——花旗认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近,管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元,Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n花旗看高美光目标价至1200美元,Q3盈利同比增速预期上调至1092%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-22 14:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗研究大幅上调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>目标价及盈利预测,认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续,价格上行动能远超此前预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台,花旗在6月17日报告中,将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元,维持"买入"评级,调幅达43%。与此同时,团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%,其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元,较市场一致预期高出约4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。</strong>花旗预计,受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动,DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%,NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%,价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘,美光股价报1133美元,新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度(截至5月)业绩,管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态,将成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">近期季度预测同步上调,财年盈利展望大幅跃升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次不仅调整全年预测,亦同步上调近期季度预估。<strong>报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%,第四季度上调5%,第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%,主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按最新预测,美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元,2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元,2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面,预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元,2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著,充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%,2027财年进一步升至82.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edc000190573a8d87e21f4692d11420\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"672\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">现货价格领涨,合约价格上行空间仍存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示,DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%,自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%,花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按季度拆分,花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%;NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%,受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">供需缺口料延续至2027年,HBM成下阶段核心催化剂</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%,且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出,今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM,而非高带宽内存(HBM),预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升,成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供给端方面,TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%,美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出,DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用,例如KV缓存卸载技术,这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外,报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象,进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f072bbda584ae97a15d31c4f133565\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值折价反映高利润率风险,长协进展受投资者关注</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观,花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍,显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险,以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者当前关注的核心议题包括:美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议(LTA)的签署进展——花旗认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近,管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) 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Value A Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775163","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645046651","content_text":"花旗研究大幅上调美光科技目标价及盈利预测,认为内存市场超级周期仍在延续,价格上行动能远超此前预期。据追风交易台,花旗在6月17日报告中,将美光科技目标价从840美元上调至1200美元,维持\"买入\"评级,调幅达43%。与此同时,团队将美光2026财年及2027财年每股收益预测分别上调4%和10%,其中2027财年每股收益预测为114.73美元,较市场一致预期高出约4%。此次上调的核心逻辑在于内存价格持续超预期走强。花旗预计,受数据中心需求强劲及供给受限双重驱动,DRAM平均售价2026年全年将上涨200%,NAND平均售价同期涨幅亦达186%,价格上行趋势料延续至2027年。截至6月19日收盘,美光股价报1133美元,新目标价较现价隐含约6%的上行空间。美光将于6月24日公布2026财年第三季度(截至5月)业绩,管理层届时对长期供货协议及供需展望的最新表态,将成为市场关注焦点。近期季度预测同步上调,财年盈利展望大幅跃升此次不仅调整全年预测,亦同步上调近期季度预估。报告将2026财年第三季度营收及每股收益预测上调6%,第四季度上调5%,第三季度每股收益同比涨幅从1025%上调至1092%,主要依据为更为乐观的定价预期。按最新预测,美光2026财年核心每股收益为60.73美元,2027财年进一步跃升至114.73美元,2028财年则为117.83美元。营收层面,预测美光2026财年营收达1150亿美元,2027财年进一步增至1975亿美元。利润率的扩张幅度尤为显著,充分反映了内存价格上涨对盈利的高度杠杆效应。花旗预计美光2026财年毛利率将从2025财年的39.8%大幅扩张至76.9%,2027财年进一步升至82.9%。现货价格领涨,合约价格上行空间仍存DRAM现货市场已率先反映供需紧张态势。数据显示,DRAM现货价格自今年1月初以来累计上涨52%,自4月初以来涨幅亦达22%。目前现货价格较合约价格溢价21%,花旗认为这一价差预示合约价格仍有持续上行空间。按季度拆分,花旗预计DRAM平均售价在2026年第二至第四季度将分别环比上涨37%、13%和11%;NAND平均售价同期各季度涨幅则预计为45%、17%和6%,受强劲需求与供应增长放缓共同支撑。供需缺口料延续至2027年,HBM成下阶段核心催化剂花旗预计2026年全球DRAM市场供给缺口约为5%,且这一供需失衡格局将延续至2027年。报告指出,今年以来DRAM价格上涨主要集中于普通商用DRAM,而非高带宽内存(HBM),预计HBM定价明年将进一步提升,成为下一阶段价格上行的主要驱动力。供给端方面,TrendForce预测2026年DRAM行业整体产出供给增速约为30%,美光自身产出增速预计达42%。花旗还指出,DRAM持续短缺将加速互补性NAND解决方案的采用,例如KV缓存卸载技术,这一趋势有望同时利好纯NAND标的及半导体设备股。此外,报告特别提及Vera Rubin平台因DRAM供给有限出现降规格现象,进一步印证了当前供给瓶颈的现实压力。估值折价反映高利润率风险,长协进展受投资者关注尽管前景乐观,花旗将目标价设定于修正后2027日历年每股收益的10倍,显著低于美光历史三年峰值估值的17倍。这一折价主要反映当前毛利率处于高位所蕴含的均值回归风险,以及近期Vera Rubin降规格报道带来的供给不确定性。投资者当前关注的核心议题包括:美光更新后的2026至2027年DRAM及NAND供需展望、长期供货协议(LTA)的签署进展——花旗认为戴尔已完成签约。随着美光6月24日财报的临近,管理层在上述议题上的最新表态将对市场预期产生直接影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"MU":1.98,"MUD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/577997807764048"}
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