我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity
06-11 17:04
冷静。哪个两万亿市值的企业还在亏钱？
SpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难
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nuanliu暖
06-12 08:38
nuanliu暖
英特尔差不多了
什么也没有了～
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Ives将此次IPO定性为"AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻"，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。</strong>公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的"圣杯"式整合。</p><h2 id=\"53\">空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，<strong>意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的"期权溢价"——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens将其基准情景定义为"最小可行产品"，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。</p><h2 id=\"id_1255959513\">历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃"回落宿命"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，<strong>当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。</strong>Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。"IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，"Ritter告诉CBS新闻，"因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的"成熟型"公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。"我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，"他表示，"也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。"</p><h2 id=\"3a4094e4\">散户涌入与指数被动买盘</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，<strong>散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。"有大量资金在追踪这些指数，"Grelck说，"随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。"</p><h2 id=\"9b6f4062\">锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens认为，<strong>这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。</strong>即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。"</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-11 16:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的"期权溢价"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为"AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻"，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。</strong>公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的"圣杯"式整合。</p><h2 id=\"53\">空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，<strong>意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的"期权溢价"——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens将其基准情景定义为"最小可行产品"，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。</p><h2 id=\"id_1255959513\">历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃"回落宿命"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，<strong>当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。</strong>Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。"IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，"Ritter告诉CBS新闻，"因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。"</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的"成熟型"公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。"我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，"他表示，"也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。"</p><h2 id=\"3a4094e4\">散户涌入与指数被动买盘</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，<strong>散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。"有大量资金在追踪这些指数，"Grelck说，"随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。"</p><h2 id=\"9b6f4062\">锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens认为，<strong>这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。</strong>即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">"我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。"</p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2954938101.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A8P\" (SGD) INC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2999663052.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774413","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642407785","content_text":"多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的\"期权溢价\"。Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为\"AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻\"，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的\"圣杯\"式整合。空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的\"期权溢价\"——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。Owens将其基准情景定义为\"最小可行产品\"，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃\"回落宿命\"尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。\"IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，\"Ritter告诉CBS新闻，\"因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。\"据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的\"成熟型\"公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。\"我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，\"他表示，\"也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。\"散户涌入与指数被动买盘此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。\"有大量资金在追踪这些指数，\"Grelck说，\"随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。\"锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。Owens认为，这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：\"我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCF":0.6,"SPCX":2,"SPCH":0.6,"LOFF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":34,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":574303371433960,"commentId":"574303371433960","gmtCreate":1781224687693,"gmtModify":1781225286280,"authorId":3479877146788319,"author":{"id":3479877146788319,"idStr":"3479877146788319","authorId":3479877146788319,"name":"nuanliu暖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf97a13cfcaa7cc61d2d0c39d6f8782","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":574073965987456,"objectIdStr":"574073965987456","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"英特尔差不多了","text":"英特尔差不多了","html":"英特尔差不多了","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/574073965987456"}
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