anbu
06-06
高盛的意见是反向指标
美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点
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10:49","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641112596","media":"智通财经","summary":"美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，超过所有经济学家预期，4月增幅则从此前公布的11.5万人大幅上修至17.9万人，这使得美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平;失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">就业强劲叠加能源价格高企，可能进一步加大美联储考虑加息以遏制通胀的压力。多位美联储官员已经表示，在美国通胀指标持续高于2%目标且偏离程度不断扩大的情况下，他们无法支持降息。近几周以来，这些官员对于进一步加息的态度也开始变得更加开放。利率掉期市场显示，交易员预计美联储将在12月政策会议前加息25个基点，并认为10月加息的概率约为60%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>集团美洲股票执行服务主管约翰·弗拉德认为，周五美股的回调为投资者提供了增持仓位的机会，而非撤退的理由。他认为，标普500指数今年达到8000点存在一条清晰的上行路径。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，美股周五的下跌很可能是由投资者在周末前获利了结、以及市场预期首次公开募股(IPO)将带来更多股票供给所推动。而历史经验表明，这类抛售往往会为买入者带来回报。他表示：“今年可供买入的回调并不多。从历史上看，在标普500指数回调2%时买入往往能够获得回报，我认为现在依然如此。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，投资者目前最常提及的问题包括通胀、涉及伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势以及私募信贷市场风险。但他认为，这些担忧更像是一堵健康的“忧虑之墙”，而非市场信心恶化的证据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他认为，更广泛的市场背景仍然具有支撑作用。尽管标普500指数今年已经创下24次历史新高，但高盛的专有市场情绪指标——该指标综合了对冲基金、共同基金、散户投资者以及海外投资者的仓位情况——目前仍接近中性水平。他表示：“尽管从指数层面来看，股市已经接近历史高点，但市场上依然存在大量担忧情绪。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19f1579e2b449c78d17a47c5850bbc92\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从机构投资者角度来看，弗拉德认为当前仓位管理依然较为克制，而非过度亢奋。高盛主经纪业务数据显示，对冲基金总敞口(即多头与空头仓位之和)已接近历史最高水平。投资者目前仍持有大量人工智能(AI)和科技股多头仓位，同时也在股票指数和交易所交易基金(ETF)等宏观工具上维持大规模空头头寸。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示：“这告诉我，市场对于未来走势依然保持着健康的怀疑态度。”他补充称，如果对冲基金未来开始回补这些对冲仓位，可能会推动股市开启下一轮上涨行情。与此同时，共同基金的现金持有比例仍接近长期平均水平，意味着投资者手中依然拥有可投入股市的资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于新股发行，弗拉德表示，机构投资者的需求强度是他职业生涯中所见最强之一。他提到了有关<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US)正考虑进行大规模股票发行的报道。此前，本周早些时候，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOGL.US)完成了一笔备受关注的大型交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，大型科技公司进行大规模股权融资反映的是市场需求健康，而非投机泡沫。他表示：“对于这些股票发行项目的需求，从未像现在这样强劲。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在散户投资者方面，弗拉德预计，只要就业市场保持稳健，买盘活动就将继续保持韧性。高盛数据显示，自2020年3月疫情最严重时期以来，美国散户投资者从未连续超过一周成为美国股票市场的净卖家。他表示：“除非我们开始看到就业岗位大规模流失，否则散户买盘很可能会继续成为市场中一个稳定而健康的力量。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在弗拉德看来，最有可能挑战其乐观预期的因素，是美国企业整体盈利表现出现广泛性失望。不过目前，他并未看到这样的迹象。他指出：“如果标普500指数成分股整体盈利表现令人失望，那将是一个非常值得担忧的信号。但我们目前还没有看到任何这方面的证据。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着一系列备受瞩目的IPO即将到来——其中包括SpaceX和Anthropic的上市计划，弗拉德表示，目前的新股发行管道更符合基本面逻辑，而非市场见顶信号。他还预计，企业股票回购需求将抵消IPO带来的新增供给。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">至于短期战术性风险，弗拉德指出，在经历了强劲的一年之后，商品交易顾问(CTA)以及波动率控制基金等系统化投资者目前已经持有相对较高比例的标普500指数敞口。他表示，如果未来连续多个交易日出现股市走弱，这类投资者可能转而成为卖方。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过截至目前，弗拉德依然坚定看多市场。他表示：“我们认为这些回调都是买入机会。今年标普500指数迈向8000点甚至更高水平，存在一条清晰的路径。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-06 10:49 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;标普500指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。美国劳工统计局...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a33c23f8e5a366189f532d19af270ed","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","ETFT":"Fundsmith Equity ETF","BMAY":"Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May","DBSC":"Deepwater Beachfront Small Cap ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD) INC 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