roseking
05-13
升级版的五粮液，库存商品先出库给亚马逊谷歌甲骨文微软OPEN AI了
共识预期只是起点？华尔街提前锁定英伟达Q1财报“碾压式”超预期，目标价最高看至315美元
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>即将于美东时间5月20日盘后公布2027财年第一季度财报，华尔街顶级投行和分析师近日纷纷发布研报，展现出愈发强烈的看涨情绪。从花旗到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>，再到Susquehanna和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>，机构们普遍预计英伟达将再次交出一份“业绩超预期并上调指引”(Beat and Raise)的亮眼成绩单，并基于强劲的AI需求大幅上调了目标价。</p><p><strong>业绩预期：共识只是起点，巨额上修成常态</strong></p><p>市场普遍预期英伟达第一季度营收约为786亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.75美元。然而，多位分析师认为，这一共识预期过于保守。</p><p>事实上，对英伟达而言，业绩大幅超预期并非新鲜事。正如其CEO黄仁勋所言，市场对英伟达GPU的需求“疯狂”高涨。2026财年第四季度，公司营收超出市场预期19亿美元，而第三季度更是超出20亿美元以上。事实上，在过去12个季度中，仅有三个季度未能实现超过10亿美元的超预期表现。</p><p>花旗预计，英伟达Q1营收将达到800亿美元，比市场共识高出约14亿美元。花旗分析师指出，这一巨大增量主要归功于“比预期更强劲的B300芯片产能爬坡”。对于第二季度，花旗预测营收将继续环比增长11%，达到890亿美元，同样远超市场预期的870亿美元。</p><p>花旗表示：“根据最新数据反映出的Blackwell芯片需求上升，我们上调了GPU出货量预期，现预计总量为1120万单元(同比增长58%，此前为1060万单元)。此外，管理层在2026年GTC大会上对Blackwell出货进度的积极表态，也令我们上调2027财年(截至2027年1月)Blackwell的出货预期，增幅为9%，达到730万单元，主要受B300持续强劲出货推动。”</p><p>花旗补充道：“在出货量提升及产品结构优化的双重推动下，我们预计2027财年总营收将达到2840亿美元，同比增长79%。我们对GPU营收预测的提升(上调约160亿美元)主要反映了出货量假设的修正。我们预计，在2026至2027财年，AI GPU的销售额平均将占英伟达数据中心总营收的70%至80%高位区间，其余部分主要来自网络业务(以太网与InfiniBand)、独立CPU，以及软件与服务收入。”</p><p>Susquehanna分析师Christopher Rolland同样认为，随着英伟达新一代GB300 AI系统需求持续增长，公司第一季度的财报和业绩展望将表现强劲。目前，该分析师已将其目标价从250美元上调至275美元，并维持“买入”评级。</p><p>Rolland指出，英伟达持续受益于主要超大规模云服务商在AI领域的大规模投入。据该分析师估计，目前排名前五的超大规模企业2026年的资本支出预计将接近翻倍，显著高于华尔街此前的预期。</p><p>该分析师还提到，黄仁勋近期预测，Blackwell与Rubin平台的合计收入到2027年有望超过1万亿美元。基于这一判断，Rolland已将其对这两大平台截至2027年的收入预期从之前的9400亿美元上调至约1万亿美元。</p><p>富国银行的顶级分析师Aaron Rakers也大幅上调了对第一季度的预测，将营收和每股收益预期分别上调至803亿美元和1.78美元，并上调目标价至315美元。该行指出，这一修正主要反映了数据中心收入预期的提高——从722亿美元上调至746亿美元(同比增长91%)。Rakers强调，AI基础设施的“吉瓦级”容量扩张是主要驱动力。他预计，随着算力需求持续超过供给，英伟达数据中心收入将在未来几年实现飞跃式增长。</p><p>具体而言，他预计英伟达的GPU计算基础设施吉瓦容量将从2026财年的约9.2 GW，提升至2027财年的近15.7 GW、2028财年的20.8 GW以及2029财年的25.2 GW。据此，Rakers目前预计英伟达2027、2028及2029财年的数据中心收入将分别达到3525亿美元(同比增长82%)、5039亿美元(同比增长43%)和6248亿美元(同比增长24%)，这些预测分别高出市场当前预期3%、11%和15%。</p><p>Rakers还预计，在Vera-Rubin平台正式推出之前，英伟达将在2027财年第二季度继续表现出对Blackwell芯片的强劲需求。因此，他同步上调了对第二财季的数据中心收入、总收入和每股收益的预期，目前预计2027财年第二季度收入为830亿美元，每股收益为1.98美元。</p><p><strong>风险与估值：高门槛下的重估可能</strong></p><p>尽管基本面强劲，但分析师也并非无视风险。高盛在维持“买入”评级和250美元目标价的同时，提醒投资者“进入财报季，该股跑赢大盘的门槛相对较高”。该行更新后的2026/2027年预估分别比市场普遍预期高出14%和34%，认为正向的盈利修正和估值重估将是未来12个月股价跑赢大盘的驱动力。</p><p>高盛认为，市场将密切关注英伟达在GTC大会上给出的万亿美元数据中心指引是否还有进一步上调空间，以及智能体AI对服务器CPU业务的潜在拉动作用。同时，投入成本上升背景下的毛利率前景也是焦点。</p><p>不过，高盛也承认，英伟达当前的估值相较历史水平和同行存在显著折价，如果业绩超预期并上调指引，很可能会出现“多重估值重评”驱动的股价上涨。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1441118.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着英伟达即将于美东时间5月20日盘后公布2027财年第一季度财报，华尔街顶级投行和分析师近日纷纷发布研报，展现出愈发强烈的看涨情绪。从花旗到高盛，再到Susquehanna和富国银行，机构们普遍预计英伟达将再次交出一份“业绩超预期并上调指引”(Beat and Raise)的亮眼成绩单，并基于强劲的AI需求大幅上调了目标价。业绩预期：共识只是起点，巨额上修成常态市场普遍预期英伟达第一季度营收约为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1441118.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2473716301.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES 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Raise)的亮眼成绩单，并基于强劲的AI需求大幅上调了目标价。业绩预期：共识只是起点，巨额上修成常态市场普遍预期英伟达第一季度营收约为786亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.75美元。然而，多位分析师认为，这一共识预期过于保守。事实上，对英伟达而言，业绩大幅超预期并非新鲜事。正如其CEO黄仁勋所言，市场对英伟达GPU的需求“疯狂”高涨。2026财年第四季度，公司营收超出市场预期19亿美元，而第三季度更是超出20亿美元以上。事实上，在过去12个季度中，仅有三个季度未能实现超过10亿美元的超预期表现。花旗预计，英伟达Q1营收将达到800亿美元，比市场共识高出约14亿美元。花旗分析师指出，这一巨大增量主要归功于“比预期更强劲的B300芯片产能爬坡”。对于第二季度，花旗预测营收将继续环比增长11%，达到890亿美元，同样远超市场预期的870亿美元。花旗表示：“根据最新数据反映出的Blackwell芯片需求上升，我们上调了GPU出货量预期，现预计总量为1120万单元(同比增长58%，此前为1060万单元)。此外，管理层在2026年GTC大会上对Blackwell出货进度的积极表态，也令我们上调2027财年(截至2027年1月)Blackwell的出货预期，增幅为9%，达到730万单元，主要受B300持续强劲出货推动。”花旗补充道：“在出货量提升及产品结构优化的双重推动下，我们预计2027财年总营收将达到2840亿美元，同比增长79%。我们对GPU营收预测的提升(上调约160亿美元)主要反映了出货量假设的修正。我们预计，在2026至2027财年，AI GPU的销售额平均将占英伟达数据中心总营收的70%至80%高位区间，其余部分主要来自网络业务(以太网与InfiniBand)、独立CPU，以及软件与服务收入。”Susquehanna分析师Christopher Rolland同样认为，随着英伟达新一代GB300 AI系统需求持续增长，公司第一季度的财报和业绩展望将表现强劲。目前，该分析师已将其目标价从250美元上调至275美元，并维持“买入”评级。Rolland指出，英伟达持续受益于主要超大规模云服务商在AI领域的大规模投入。据该分析师估计，目前排名前五的超大规模企业2026年的资本支出预计将接近翻倍，显著高于华尔街此前的预期。该分析师还提到，黄仁勋近期预测，Blackwell与Rubin平台的合计收入到2027年有望超过1万亿美元。基于这一判断，Rolland已将其对这两大平台截至2027年的收入预期从之前的9400亿美元上调至约1万亿美元。富国银行的顶级分析师Aaron Rakers也大幅上调了对第一季度的预测，将营收和每股收益预期分别上调至803亿美元和1.78美元，并上调目标价至315美元。该行指出，这一修正主要反映了数据中心收入预期的提高——从722亿美元上调至746亿美元(同比增长91%)。Rakers强调，AI基础设施的“吉瓦级”容量扩张是主要驱动力。他预计，随着算力需求持续超过供给，英伟达数据中心收入将在未来几年实现飞跃式增长。具体而言，他预计英伟达的GPU计算基础设施吉瓦容量将从2026财年的约9.2 GW，提升至2027财年的近15.7 GW、2028财年的20.8 GW以及2029财年的25.2 GW。据此，Rakers目前预计英伟达2027、2028及2029财年的数据中心收入将分别达到3525亿美元(同比增长82%)、5039亿美元(同比增长43%)和6248亿美元(同比增长24%)，这些预测分别高出市场当前预期3%、11%和15%。Rakers还预计，在Vera-Rubin平台正式推出之前，英伟达将在2027财年第二季度继续表现出对Blackwell芯片的强劲需求。因此，他同步上调了对第二财季的数据中心收入、总收入和每股收益的预期，目前预计2027财年第二季度收入为830亿美元，每股收益为1.98美元。风险与估值：高门槛下的重估可能尽管基本面强劲，但分析师也并非无视风险。高盛在维持“买入”评级和250美元目标价的同时，提醒投资者“进入财报季，该股跑赢大盘的门槛相对较高”。该行更新后的2026/2027年预估分别比市场普遍预期高出14%和34%，认为正向的盈利修正和估值重估将是未来12个月股价跑赢大盘的驱动力。高盛认为，市场将密切关注英伟达在GTC大会上给出的万亿美元数据中心指引是否还有进一步上调空间，以及智能体AI对服务器CPU业务的潜在拉动作用。同时，投入成本上升背景下的毛利率前景也是焦点。不过，高盛也承认，英伟达当前的估值相较历史水平和同行存在显著折价，如果业绩超预期并上调指引，很可能会出现“多重估值重评”驱动的股价上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDX":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"META":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["SOCL","GOOGL","MAGY","VERS","CHAT","AGIX","ARTY","WTAI","OPEN","YMAG","03189","XDAT","AIPO","83189","BULZ"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":59,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/563735978477176"}
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