etc卷商银行为主
05-06 10:54
空调市场排名,销售额,格力很不理想
千亿消费大白马,双双失速了
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP,发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":561169669866256,"tweetId":"561169669866256","gmtCreate":1778036090946,"gmtModify":1778036093521,"author":{"id":3494546574063181,"idStr":"3494546574063181","authorId":3494546574063181,"authorIdStr":"3494546574063181","name":"etc卷商银行为主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b586cccac8b017e17fe86d3573d32b9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>空调市场排名,销售额,格力很不理想</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>空调市场排名,销售额,格力很不理想</p></body></html>","text":"空调市场排名,销售额,格力很不理想","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561169669866256","repostId":2632893120,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2632893120","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1777887292,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2632893120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-04 17:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千亿消费大白马,双双失速了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2632893120","media":"格隆汇","summary":"谁能笑到最后","content":"<html><body><p><span><span>作为国内家电行业的佼佼者,近日</span></span><span><span><span>格力</span></span><span><span>和海尔的财报或许都令人有些</span></span><span><span>五味杂陈</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>财报</span></span><span><span>显示,</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">格力电器</a>实现营业收入</span></span><span><span>1704.47</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比下滑</span></span><span><span>9.89%</span></span><span><span>,创下</span></span><span><span>2021</span></span><span><span>年以来的新低</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>公司</span></span><span><span>归母净利润</span></span><span><span>也同比下滑</span></span><span><span>9.89%</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>290.03</span></span><span><span>亿元,降幅进一步扩大</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>然而资本市场对这份业绩的反应,</span></span><span><span>却与实际数字截然不同</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>年报发布同日,格力同步披露了每</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>股派发现金红利</span></span><span><span>20</span></span><span><span>元的慷慨分红预案,股息率超过</span></span><span><span>5%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>或受此提振,</span></span><span><span>年报发布次日,格力电器股价</span></span><span><span>单日</span></span><span><span>涨幅达</span></span><span><span>5.85%</span></span><span><span>,</span></span><span><span>逆势走强。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cbdaa-953fcb42-b9bc-4b12-9c59-5dca43420a5d.jpg?guru_height=549&guru_width=750&guru_size=50394\"/></p><p><span><span><span>与格力形成鲜明对比的,是同期披露业绩的另一大白电巨头,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600690\">海尔智家</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06690\">海尔智家</a>全年实现营业收入</span></span><span><span>3023.47</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比增长</span></span><span><span>5.71%</span></span><span><span>,全年首破</span></span><span><span>3000</span></span><span><span>亿大关</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>归母净利润</span></span><span><span>也同比增长</span></span><span><span>4.39%</span></span><span><span>亿元,至</span></span><span><span>195.53</span></span><span><span>亿元。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>然而,业绩公布后,海尔业绩反而持续承压。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>为什么会产生这种反差?</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><p><span><span><span>过去两年,格力的财报数据给出的信号相当复杂。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年年报显示,格力电器实现营业收入</span></span><span><span>1891.64</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比减少</span></span><span><span>7.26%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>归母</span></span><span><span>净利润却达到了</span></span><span><span>321.85</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比增长</span></span><span><span>10.91%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>营收收缩近一成而盈利逆势扩张,这源于</span></span><span><span>格力在</span></span><span><span>成本端的严格控制</span></span><span><span>,以及在</span></span><span><span>渠道营销费用的压缩。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年,格力</span></span><span><span>销售费用同比下降</span></span><span><span>34.11%</span></span><span><span>,管理费用同比下降</span></span><span><span>7.41%</span></span><span><span>,两项合计削减了约</span></span><span><span>65</span></span><span><span>亿元的费用支出</span></span><span><span>,显示出格力惊人的利润调节能力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>在行业整体需求疲软的境况下,单纯的节流并非永远有效。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,国内家电行业经历了近几年来最为严重的需求下滑。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>奥维云网推总数据显示,</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,中国家电零售市场规模为</span></span><span><span>8931</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比下降</span></span><span><span>4.3%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在此行业背景之下,白电巨头均遭受着前所未有的压力,格力也</span></span><span><span>营收与利润双双失守</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>然而,哪怕面临全行业的下滑,格力的下滑幅度也更为突出。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>具体到核心业务,消费电器收入</span></span><span><span>1330.55</span></span><span><span>亿元,占总营收的</span></span><span><span>78%</span></span><span><span>,却同比大跌</span></span><span><span>10.44%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/561fa-11abe44b-bc83-4fa5-9d09-71e011a4876d.jpg?guru_height=600&guru_width=753&guru_size=35962\"/></p><p><span><span><span>国内销售端下滑尤其明显,降幅达到</span></span><span><span>10.67%</span></span><span><span>,</span></span><span><span>远超</span></span><span><span>行业整体收缩</span></span><span><span>的</span></span><span><span>速度。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>换句话说,格力</span></span></b><b><span><span>的失速</span></span></b><b><span><span>,</span></span></b><b><span><span>很大程度</span></span></b><b><span><span>是企业自身的问题。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这点不难想象,一直以来,格力都有这一条极为稳固的护城河</span></span><span><span>——空调。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>格力就是空调,空调就是格力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,格力家用空调线上市场零售额占比为</span></span><span><span>24.31%</span></span><span><span>,仍居行业首位,中央空调</span></span><span><span>业务更是以</span></span><span><span>超</span></span><span><span>15%</span></span><span><span>的市场占有率连续十四年保持国内第一。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/7f753-42112ffb-51bf-4069-83f4-4dbca0589bce.jpg?guru_height=606&guru_width=749&guru_size=33275\"/></p><p><span><span><span>在空调这一核心品类上,格力的品牌力无人能出其右。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而近年来,空调市场增长见顶,且在国补退潮之后,更新需求迅速下降,格力也就面临着更为严峻的挑战。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5f46b-4a76f7b3-a350-414e-8063-1e8c5db4fcea.jpg?guru_height=471&guru_width=915&guru_size=43611\"/></p><p><span><span><span>事实上,近几年来,</span></span><span><span>格力的收入结构非但没有</span></span><span><span>变得更加多元化,反而对于空调的依赖度越来越深。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在各家巨头纷纷开启第二曲线之时,格力的</span></span><span><span>空调收入占总营收比重</span></span><span><span>一度不降反升,</span></span><span><span>到了</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,这一比重仍保持在高位</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而海尔的情况则与格力恰恰相反。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>如今的海尔,已然成为国内全球化布局最为成功的企业之一。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,海尔智家海外收入</span></span><span><span>1545.45</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比增长</span></span><span><span>8.15%</span></span><span><span>,海外营收占比</span></span><span><span>首次</span></span><span><span>超过</span></span><span><span>50%</span></span><span><span>,增速</span></span><span><span>也</span></span><span><span>显著高于国内的</span></span><span><span>3.07%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在全球家电品牌中,这</span></span><span><span>样</span></span><span><span>内外均衡的结构</span></span><span><span>都</span></span><span><span>非常少见。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不仅如此,海尔旗下的高端品牌卡萨帝也已然收获颇丰。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>目前,</span></span><span><span>卡萨帝在</span></span><span><span>1.5</span></span><span><span>万元以上高端市场的冰箱份额达到</span></span><span><span>71.08%</span></span><span><span>、洗衣机份额达到</span></span><span><span>80%</span></span><span><span>、空调份额达到</span></span><span><span>44.7%</span></span><span><span>,在多品类高端市场占据着近乎压倒性的优势。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>无论从收入规模还是</span></span></b><b><span><span>业务广度来</span></span></b><b><span><span>看,海尔的表现都明显好于格力。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>但进入</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年第一季度,海尔营收</span></span><span><span>736.87</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比下降</span></span><span><span>6.86%</span></span><span><span>,归母净利润</span></span><span><span>46.52</span></span><span><span>亿元,同比大跌</span></span><span><span>15.22%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这份一季报出来后,虽然多数机构维持买入评级,但普遍下调了盈利预测。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>短暂的增长之后,脆弱性开始暴露</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这样的</span></span><span><span>分野背后,是两家公司深层的结构</span></span><span><span>问题</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><p><span><span><span>一直以来,格力采取的是,高壁垒的纵深模式。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>由于空调具有</span></span><span><span>“三分制造,七分安装”的半成品特性</span></span><span><span>、较</span></span><span><span>长</span></span><span><span>的</span></span><span><span>使用寿命与复杂的售后维保需求</span></span><span><span>,使得空调</span></span><span><span>品类比其他家电更容易</span></span><span><span>积淀</span></span><span><span>品牌认同</span></span><span><span>,进而带来</span></span><span><span>溢价空间</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因此,在空调这一完全成熟的主赛道上,格力具备着远超同行的渠道效率和成本管控,以至于单品净利润率远超行业平均。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>也是因此,格力</span></span><span><span>在长期保持</span></span><span><span>20%</span></span><span><span>以上的净资产收益率,仅</span></span><span><span>依赖</span></span><span><span>空调一个品类</span></span><span><span>,就能完成对于海尔整个集团利润的反超。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>事实上,哪怕是业绩如此惨淡的</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,</span></span><span><span>格力的消费电器毛利率反而微升了</span></span><span><span>0.37</span></span><span><span>个百分点,达到</span></span><span><span>35.28%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/2f1f9-47910f7c-baea-4a27-85a6-885966ab9db9.jpg?guru_height=390&guru_width=861&guru_size=47334\"/></span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这显示出,在收缩中,格力也</span></span><span><span>没有因为降价抢市场而牺牲利润。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但这一模式同样面临着相当明显的挑战。</span></span></span></p><p><b><span><span>当空调市场总容量触及天花板之时,格力几乎没有任何缓冲来对冲风险。</span></span></b></p><p><span><span><span>2024</span></span><span><span>年上半年空调占比不降反升,正是由于此,因为其多元化业务没能形成足够的规模,面临风险,只能进一步加固护城河。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>海尔</span></span><span><span>的业务模式则与格力完全相反,完全呈现</span></span><span><span>横向展开</span></span><span><span>——</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>通过多品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>,以横向扩张</span></span></b><b><span><span>来弥补</span></span></b><b><span><span>单一品类的</span></span></b><b><span><span>不足</span></span></b><b><span><span>。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>目前,海尔已经在</span></span><span><span>在全球范围内构建了海尔、卡萨帝、</span></span><span><span>Leader</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>GE Appliances</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Candy</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Fisher&Paykel</span></span><span><span>及</span></span><span><span>AQUA</span></span><span><span>七大品牌集群。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一</span></span><span><span>模式的优势在于抗风险能力和增量空间</span></span><span><span>——</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不管哪一国或者哪一</span></span><span><span>品类需求萎缩,都可以通过</span></span><span><span>地区和品类</span></span><span><span>调整来对冲</span></span><span><span>风险</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>然而,横向模式的代价同样</span></span><span><span>巨大</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>多品牌、多</span></span><span><span>国家</span></span><span><span>的运营架构</span></span><span><span>,需要</span></span><span><span>庞大的管理费用和营销投入,导致海尔智家的费用率远超格力</span></span><span><span>——</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年,海尔智家的</span></span></b><b><span><span>销售费用达</span></span></b><b><span><span>338.78</span></span></b><b><span><span>亿元,而同期格力全年的销售费用仅</span></span></b><b><span><span>84.11</span></span></b><b><span><span>亿元。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>2023</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年的三年间,海尔智家的销售费用分别为</span></span><span><span>409.78</span></span><span><span>亿元、</span></span><span><span>335.86</span></span><span><span>亿元、</span></span><span><span>338.78</span></span><span><span>亿元,三年合计超过一千亿元。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这也就导致,</span></span><span><span>海尔的净利润率在</span></span><span><span>“白电三巨头”中持续垫底——</span></span><span><span>202</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>全年</span></span><span><span>仅为</span></span><span><span>6.67</span></span><span><span>%</span></span><span><span>,而格力的净利润率则高达</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>6.93</span></span><span><span>%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因此</span></span><span><span>,海尔智家营收规模</span></span><span><span>经常</span></span><span><span>大幅领先格力,但盈利总量却被后者反超。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>相比之下,格力还面临着</span></span><span><span>渠道改革的阵痛</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>曾几何时,</span></span><span><span>格力的渠道能力令所有对手艳羡。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>省代、代理商、经销商层层绑定,在历史上支撑了格力空调的高速扩张。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但在消费场景由线下切换为线上</span></span><span><span>,</span></span><span><span>这套</span></span><span><span>由</span></span><span><span>核心代理商支撑的模式</span></span><span><span>,就</span></span><span><span>暴露出一系列痼疾。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2020</span></span><span><span>年以来,董明珠强势推动线上直播与线下扁平化改革</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>然而,</span></span><span><span>这一举措固然减少了中间环节对利润的侵蚀,但也引发了一系列震荡</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为,</span></span><span><span>渠道改革的实质是在存量市场里重新分配利润,而每一次利润再分配都意味着某些既得利益者的退出</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这也就导致了,格力在</span></span><span><span>经营现金流</span></span><span><span>上</span></span><span><span>的剧烈波动</span></span><span><span>,直到</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>,</span></span><span><span>现金流</span></span><span><span>才再次反弹</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>463.83</span></span><span><span>亿元,</span></span><span><span>这也意味着,过去几年间,格力面临的</span></span><span><span>不确定性。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>作为国内</span></span><span><span>白电的标杆企业,在经历了各自的扩张与整合之后,</span></span><span><span>格力和海尔</span></span><span><span>已走上</span></span><span><span>截然不同</span></span><span><span>的竞争路径。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而显然,多品牌多品类布局的风险性和发展潜力,均优于单一品类,因此,过往格力一直被视为</span></span><span><span>一家过度依赖空调、增长空间逼仄的公司</span></span><span><span>,面临着行业的持续低估值。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/106f1-a20e6e89-f18d-49bd-bccb-6a4bce1ab139.jpg?guru_height=672&guru_width=843&guru_size=52417\"/></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>当</span></span><span><span>公司</span></span><span><span>实际业绩仍在下滑但并未低于预期,同时高额分红落地、现金流大幅</span></span><span><span>增长,利好信号</span></span><span><span>开始释放,估值水平</span></span><span><span>就</span></span><span><span>从过度悲观</span></span><span><span>开始向</span></span><span><span>中性回归</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>甚至</span></span><span><span>在业绩承压的情况下,格力的经营质量并没有同步恶化,关键质量指标有所改善。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年第一季度,格力营收和归母净利润双双恢复正增长</span></span><span><span>,</span></span><span><span>营收同比增长</span></span><span><span>3.52%</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>429.66</span></span><span><span>亿元,净利润同比增长</span></span><span><span>3.01%</span></span><span><span>至</span></span><span><span>60.82</span></span><span><span>亿元</span></span><span><span>,也就</span></span><span><span>进一步夯实了估值修复的基础。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而</span></span><span><span>海尔智家</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年一季度的</span></span><span><span>业绩双降,暴露出了其海外市场的脆弱性。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>汇率波动、海外通胀抑制需求以及跨区域管理成本的</span></span><span><span>影响</span></span><span><span>,都可能侵蚀</span></span><span><span>海尔多品牌布局</span></span><span><span>的红利。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>更重要的是,海尔当前估值约</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>倍</span></span><span><span>,高于</span></span><span><span>格力约</span></span><span><span>7.4</span></span><span><span>倍</span></span><span><span>的估值</span></span><span><span>,更高的估值中包含着市场对其全球化、高端化持续增长的期待</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>公司一</span></span><span><span>季度业绩</span></span><span><span>打破了这种期待,也就</span></span><span><span>面临</span></span><span><span>着更为剧烈的</span></span><span><span>回撤压力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>目前,</span></span><span><span>海尔已经明确将</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年、</span></span><span><span>2027</span></span><span><span>年、</span></span><span><span>2028</span></span><span><span>年的现金分红比例分别提升至不低于</span></span><span><span>58%</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>60%</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>60%</span></span><span><span>,但分红的基础归根结底取决于盈利的可持续性。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>如果无法在收入增长的基础上同步提升利润转化效率,海尔的估值上限将始终被约束在现有区间内。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>对于格力而言,</span></span><span><span>低估值和高分红,</span></span><span><span>使得其具备相当的安全边际,不过其</span></span><span><span>依靠空调核心品类的基本盘,</span></span><span><span>需要</span></span><span><span>等待行业周期回暖和多元化转型的成熟,</span></span><span><span>等待其</span></span><span><span>需更多耐心。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而</span></span><span><span>海尔</span></span><span><span>固然拥有</span></span><span><span>全球化布局及多品类矩阵的基础上,但相对应的,外部政治、气候、汇率等不确定因素也带来更高的波动率。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今年一季度的冷热反差,正是这两家公司经营模式和市场表现反差之间,最典型的例证。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">结语</font></span></strong></span></h3><div><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></span></div><p><span><span><span>目前,</span></span><span><span>中国家电行业已从高增长时代的增量博弈</span></span><span><span>,</span></span><span><span>全面转向存量博弈与结构升级的双</span></span><span><span>方向</span></span><span><span>竞争。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在这一新的竞争</span></span><span><span>格局</span></span><span><span>中,格力与海尔的</span></span><span><span>差异,正</span></span><span><span>是中国制造业正在发生</span></span><span><span>的两条不同发展路径的缩影</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在某个时间节点</span></span><span><span>,这两条路径或许也终将</span></span><span><span>交汇</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而谁能在交汇前积蓄更多</span></span><span><span>能量</span></span></span><span><span><span>,谁就将在中国家电业的下一轮洗牌中占据先机。</span></span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千亿消费大白马,双双失速了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千亿消费大白马,双双失速了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-04 17:34 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4622158><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为国内家电行业的佼佼者,近日格力和海尔的财报或许都令人有些五味杂陈。财报显示,2025年格力电器实现营业收入1704.47亿元,同比下滑9.89%,创下2021年以来的新低。公司归母净利润也同比下滑9.89%至290.03亿元,降幅进一步扩大。然而资本市场对这份业绩的反应,却与实际数字截然不同。年报发布同日,格力同步披露了每10股派发现金红利20元的慷慨分红预案,股息率超过5%。或受此提振,年报...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4622158\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/15f47-f8effb9b-703c-4319-8b6c-6c4fd0040202.jpg?guru_height=309&guru_width=550&guru_size=25270","relate_stocks":{"01169":"海尔电器","LU1934453819.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1979443071.USD":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USDHDG) INC","BK0014":"新能源汽车","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0196":"行业龙头","SGXZ49509284.SGD":"United China A Shares Innovation A Acc SGD","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","HK0000181112.HKD":"DA CHENG CHINA BALANCED \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK0224":"电气机械","HK0000181138.USD":"DA CHENG CHINA BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1580142542.USD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 USD","000651":"格力电器","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0187":"一线龙头","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","BK0028":"国家队","BK0175":"白马股"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4622158","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2632893120","content_text":"作为国内家电行业的佼佼者,近日格力和海尔的财报或许都令人有些五味杂陈。财报显示,2025年格力电器实现营业收入1704.47亿元,同比下滑9.89%,创下2021年以来的新低。公司归母净利润也同比下滑9.89%至290.03亿元,降幅进一步扩大。然而资本市场对这份业绩的反应,却与实际数字截然不同。年报发布同日,格力同步披露了每10股派发现金红利20元的慷慨分红预案,股息率超过5%。或受此提振,年报发布次日,格力电器股价单日涨幅达5.85%,逆势走强。与格力形成鲜明对比的,是同期披露业绩的另一大白电巨头,海尔智家。2025年,海尔智家全年实现营业收入3023.47亿元,同比增长5.71%,全年首破3000亿大关。归母净利润也同比增长4.39%亿元,至195.53亿元。然而,业绩公布后,海尔业绩反而持续承压。为什么会产生这种反差?01过去两年,格力的财报数据给出的信号相当复杂。2024年年报显示,格力电器实现营业收入1891.64亿元,同比减少7.26%。但归母净利润却达到了321.85亿元,同比增长10.91%。营收收缩近一成而盈利逆势扩张,这源于格力在成本端的严格控制,以及在渠道营销费用的压缩。2024年,格力销售费用同比下降34.11%,管理费用同比下降7.41%,两项合计削减了约65亿元的费用支出,显示出格力惊人的利润调节能力。但在行业整体需求疲软的境况下,单纯的节流并非永远有效。2025年,国内家电行业经历了近几年来最为严重的需求下滑。奥维云网推总数据显示,2025年,中国家电零售市场规模为8931亿元,同比下降4.3%。在此行业背景之下,白电巨头均遭受着前所未有的压力,格力也营收与利润双双失守。然而,哪怕面临全行业的下滑,格力的下滑幅度也更为突出。具体到核心业务,消费电器收入1330.55亿元,占总营收的78%,却同比大跌10.44%。国内销售端下滑尤其明显,降幅达到10.67%,远超行业整体收缩的速度。换句话说,格力的失速,很大程度是企业自身的问题。这点不难想象,一直以来,格力都有这一条极为稳固的护城河——空调。格力就是空调,空调就是格力。2025年,格力家用空调线上市场零售额占比为24.31%,仍居行业首位,中央空调业务更是以超15%的市场占有率连续十四年保持国内第一。在空调这一核心品类上,格力的品牌力无人能出其右。而近年来,空调市场增长见顶,且在国补退潮之后,更新需求迅速下降,格力也就面临着更为严峻的挑战。事实上,近几年来,格力的收入结构非但没有变得更加多元化,反而对于空调的依赖度越来越深。在各家巨头纷纷开启第二曲线之时,格力的空调收入占总营收比重一度不降反升,到了2025年,这一比重仍保持在高位。而海尔的情况则与格力恰恰相反。如今的海尔,已然成为国内全球化布局最为成功的企业之一。2025年,海尔智家海外收入1545.45亿元,同比增长8.15%,海外营收占比首次超过50%,增速也显著高于国内的3.07%。在全球家电品牌中,这样内外均衡的结构都非常少见。不仅如此,海尔旗下的高端品牌卡萨帝也已然收获颇丰。目前,卡萨帝在1.5万元以上高端市场的冰箱份额达到71.08%、洗衣机份额达到80%、空调份额达到44.7%,在多品类高端市场占据着近乎压倒性的优势。无论从收入规模还是业务广度来看,海尔的表现都明显好于格力。但进入2026年第一季度,海尔营收736.87亿元,同比下降6.86%,归母净利润46.52亿元,同比大跌15.22%。这份一季报出来后,虽然多数机构维持买入评级,但普遍下调了盈利预测。短暂的增长之后,脆弱性开始暴露。这样的分野背后,是两家公司深层的结构问题。02一直以来,格力采取的是,高壁垒的纵深模式。由于空调具有“三分制造,七分安装”的半成品特性、较长的使用寿命与复杂的售后维保需求,使得空调品类比其他家电更容易积淀品牌认同,进而带来溢价空间。因此,在空调这一完全成熟的主赛道上,格力具备着远超同行的渠道效率和成本管控,以至于单品净利润率远超行业平均。也是因此,格力在长期保持20%以上的净资产收益率,仅依赖空调一个品类,就能完成对于海尔整个集团利润的反超。事实上,哪怕是业绩如此惨淡的2025年,格力的消费电器毛利率反而微升了0.37个百分点,达到35.28%。这显示出,在收缩中,格力也没有因为降价抢市场而牺牲利润。但这一模式同样面临着相当明显的挑战。当空调市场总容量触及天花板之时,格力几乎没有任何缓冲来对冲风险。2024年上半年空调占比不降反升,正是由于此,因为其多元化业务没能形成足够的规模,面临风险,只能进一步加固护城河。海尔的业务模式则与格力完全相反,完全呈现横向展开——通过多品牌矩阵,以横向扩张来弥补单一品类的不足。目前,海尔已经在在全球范围内构建了海尔、卡萨帝、Leader、GE Appliances、Candy、Fisher&Paykel及AQUA七大品牌集群。这一模式的优势在于抗风险能力和增量空间——不管哪一国或者哪一品类需求萎缩,都可以通过地区和品类调整来对冲风险。然而,横向模式的代价同样巨大。多品牌、多国家的运营架构,需要庞大的管理费用和营销投入,导致海尔智家的费用率远超格力——2025年,海尔智家的销售费用达338.78亿元,而同期格力全年的销售费用仅84.11亿元。2023至2025年的三年间,海尔智家的销售费用分别为409.78亿元、335.86亿元、338.78亿元,三年合计超过一千亿元。这也就导致,海尔的净利润率在“白电三巨头”中持续垫底——2025全年仅为6.67%,而格力的净利润率则高达16.93%。因此,海尔智家营收规模经常大幅领先格力,但盈利总量却被后者反超。相比之下,格力还面临着渠道改革的阵痛。曾几何时,格力的渠道能力令所有对手艳羡。省代、代理商、经销商层层绑定,在历史上支撑了格力空调的高速扩张。但在消费场景由线下切换为线上,这套由核心代理商支撑的模式,就暴露出一系列痼疾。2020年以来,董明珠强势推动线上直播与线下扁平化改革。然而,这一举措固然减少了中间环节对利润的侵蚀,但也引发了一系列震荡。因为,渠道改革的实质是在存量市场里重新分配利润,而每一次利润再分配都意味着某些既得利益者的退出。这也就导致了,格力在经营现金流上的剧烈波动,直到2025年,现金流才再次反弹至463.83亿元,这也意味着,过去几年间,格力面临的不确定性。作为国内白电的标杆企业,在经历了各自的扩张与整合之后,格力和海尔已走上截然不同的竞争路径。而显然,多品牌多品类布局的风险性和发展潜力,均优于单一品类,因此,过往格力一直被视为一家过度依赖空调、增长空间逼仄的公司,面临着行业的持续低估值。但当公司实际业绩仍在下滑但并未低于预期,同时高额分红落地、现金流大幅增长,利好信号开始释放,估值水平就从过度悲观开始向中性回归。甚至在业绩承压的情况下,格力的经营质量并没有同步恶化,关键质量指标有所改善。2026年第一季度,格力营收和归母净利润双双恢复正增长,营收同比增长3.52%至429.66亿元,净利润同比增长3.01%至60.82亿元,也就进一步夯实了估值修复的基础。而海尔智家2026年一季度的业绩双降,暴露出了其海外市场的脆弱性。汇率波动、海外通胀抑制需求以及跨区域管理成本的影响,都可能侵蚀海尔多品牌布局的红利。更重要的是,海尔当前估值约10倍,高于格力约7.4倍的估值,更高的估值中包含着市场对其全球化、高端化持续增长的期待。公司一季度业绩打破了这种期待,也就面临着更为剧烈的回撤压力。目前,海尔已经明确将2026年、2027年、2028年的现金分红比例分别提升至不低于58%、60%、60%,但分红的基础归根结底取决于盈利的可持续性。如果无法在收入增长的基础上同步提升利润转化效率,海尔的估值上限将始终被约束在现有区间内。对于格力而言,低估值和高分红,使得其具备相当的安全边际,不过其依靠空调核心品类的基本盘,需要等待行业周期回暖和多元化转型的成熟,等待其需更多耐心。而海尔固然拥有全球化布局及多品类矩阵的基础上,但相对应的,外部政治、气候、汇率等不确定因素也带来更高的波动率。今年一季度的冷热反差,正是这两家公司经营模式和市场表现反差之间,最典型的例证。03结语目前,中国家电行业已从高增长时代的增量博弈,全面转向存量博弈与结构升级的双方向竞争。在这一新的竞争格局中,格力与海尔的差异,正是中国制造业正在发生的两条不同发展路径的缩影。在某个时间节点,这两条路径或许也终将交汇。而谁能在交汇前积蓄更多能量,谁就将在中国家电业的下一轮洗牌中占据先机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000651":0.9,"01169":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/561169669866256"}
精彩评论