MingPanda
05-05
Replying to
@丑小妖
:👍//
@丑小妖
:拿着不动,不加仓不减仓,没仓位的也不买
@MingPanda:
$闪迪(SNDK)$ 涨到$1,255了。 很多人在问:还能买吗?会不会成接盘侠? 我觉得这个问题问错了。 正确的问题是: 你能不能承受NAND周期? SNDK现在的矛盾很有意思: Forward PE只有约10倍——按盈利预期看,根本不贵。 但DCF模型显示内在价值约$892——按现金流看,已经超出了。 华尔街20个分析师,目标价从$740到$2,000,差了将近3倍。 这不是分析师在乱说, 而是说明: SNDK的价值, 本来就取决于NAND周期能持续多久。 这类票的持有体验很真实: 你可能看对了行业,也看对了公司。 但如果NAND周期在2026-2027见顶,股价回撤会非常痛。 不是你判断错了,而是周期会先狠狠干你一段。 我现在的判断是: 基本面没有问题,确定性很强。 但我也清楚一件事: 进场价格越高,能承受的回撤空间就越小。 所以我现在的动作是: 继续观察NAND价格走势,等待更清晰的周期信号,不急着重仓。 我观察的三个信号: - NAND价格是否继续收紧 - 数据中心CAPEX是否持续加速 - 毛利率能否维持在高位(目前78.4%,已经超过NVDA) 这三个信号变了,我的判断也会变。 你怎么看SNDK的周期?评论区聊聊。 实盘观察,不是投资建议。
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3a9edcf0c3a26f8541d074d8bb684e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"></body></html>","text":"$闪迪(SNDK)$ 涨到$1,255了。 很多人在问:还能买吗?会不会成接盘侠? 我觉得这个问题问错了。 正确的问题是: 你能不能承受NAND周期? 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