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Replying to @AmyMacaulay:今天能缓解点压力//@AmyMacaulay:加息阴影笼罩，鲍威尔这次悬了！

@Fiona第一线：标普涨它的——联储里最鹰的人今晚已经在算加息了

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rates\"摆上了桌。这是她半年里第一次说这两个词。</strong></p>\n<p>背景:她是联储里最鹰的人之一,2024年12月就dissent反对降息,2025年全年的口头禅是<strong>\"barely restrictive\"和\"no need to cut\"</strong>。今晚她升级到了<strong>\"我能预见加息的scenario,如果通胀持续高于目标\"</strong>。同一天另外两位联储官员喊通胀\"可能更糟\",IMF总裁同一天警告滞胀。三个人,一天,不是巧合。</p>\n<p><strong>这是FOMC内部的协调施压。鹰派阵营的边界今晚集体往前推了一格。</strong></p>\n<p>但鲍威尔3/30在哈佛说的是相反的话——<strong>\"油价冲击是暂时的,等紧缩生效的时候油价已经回去了\"</strong>。他用这一句话杀死了加息预期。我3/31押rates stay put的依据就是这句。</p>\n<p><strong>今晚这个基准被晃了一下。还没翻,但晃了。</strong></p>\n<p>两个数字正在直接打在鲍威尔的\"暂时论\"上:</p>\n<p>① &nbsp;<strong>布伦特111</strong>,战争第六周。鲍威尔3/30默认的画面是几周内回去。第六周了,没回去。</p>\n<p>② &nbsp;<strong>Cleveland Fed自己的nowcast预测4月CPI 3.5%</strong>,2024以来最高。Hammack拿自己单位的模型反向施压自己的主席。</p>\n<p><strong>现在的真问题不是\"鲍威尔会不会加息\"——他不会。真问题是:</strong></p>\n<p><strong>他能撑过几次CPI?</strong></p>\n<p>第一次:周五(4月10日)的3月CPI。3月CPI口径只反映了部分油价冲击,因为伊朗战争是2月底打的,油价主要在3月中下旬才上去。<strong>3.0%-3.2%之间出来,鲍威尔的\"暂时论\"还活着。</strong>第一次大概率撑得过去。</p>\n<p>第二次:5月中旬的4月CPI。这一份会完整反映油价。Cleveland Fed 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3.5%,2024以来最高。Hammack拿自己单位的模型反向施压自己的主席。 现在的真问题不是\"鲍威尔会不会加息\"——他不会。真问题是: 他能撑过几次CPI? 第一次:周五(4月10日)的3月CPI。3月CPI口径只反映了部分油价冲击,因为伊朗战争是2月底打的,油价主要在3月中下旬才上去。3.0%-3.2%之间出来,鲍威尔的\"暂时论\"还活着。第一次大概率撑得过去。 第二次:5月中旬的4月CPI。这一份会完整反映油价。Cleveland Fed nowcast已经给3.5%。如果真出3.5%,Hammack今晚的scenario就变成5月FOMC的政策选项。鲍威尔到时候就得在\"继续暂时\"和\"承认结构性\"之间二选一。 撑得过第一次。第二次的不确定性,从今晚开始显著升高。 先不管标普连涨四天——那是另一篇。我现在只关心鲍威尔的平衡木能走多久。3/31那个rates stay put,加一个时间戳:活到5月中旬之前。4月CPI之后可能要重写。 Hammack今晚这句话,射程到5月CPI。CPI出了回来对账。 $标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 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