仰望天空
03-18
多空持仓比数据是否有误？
期权聚焦 | 美光财报将至，大单构建看跌价差押注或对冲绩后难以大涨；远月大单则激进看涨至620-750美元
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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期权女巫
03-18
期权女巫
您好数据没有问题。看涨期权总未平仓量（261,990张）低于看跌期权（384,293张），Put/Call OI比率为1.47。期权数据选择的是本周周五到期的。
期权女巫
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仰望天空
:
是的“高于”这里是表述错误了，非常感谢您的指正
[比心]
之后会加强校对工作
仰望天空
:
嗯啊，文章写的是“高于”，友善提议
什么也没有了～
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13:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权聚焦 | 美光财报将至，大单构建看跌价差押注或对冲绩后难以大涨；远月大单则激进看涨至620-750美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172865155","media":"期权女巫","summary":"焦点行权价： 450美元和460美元的看涨期权聚集了市场最多的关注，未平仓合约分别高达11,435张和9,765张，成为多空博弈的前沿阵地。关键价位博弈： 450美元看涨期权成交11,230张，估算成交额高达3000万美元，结合其高OI，显示有大量资金在此位置进行决战式的布局。对于认为财报波动可能不及7.8% 的投资者，卖出虚值期权是主流思路。例如，卖出上方500美元Call或下方430美元Put，其行权价已超出市场隐含波动区间，被击中的概率相对较低。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a></strong>将于<strong>3月18日盘后</strong>发布财报，期权市场已为这一关键事件做好准备。截至当前，股价报461.69美元，而将于3月20日到期的期权链数据显示，市场预期一场剧烈的波动即将到来。</p><h3 id=\"id_3793922344\" style=\"text-align: start;\">一、 财报核心看点与市场预期</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>市场一致预期（本季度）：</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>营收</strong>：约199.4亿美元。（同比增长152.59%）</p></li><li><p><strong>每股收益（EPS）</strong>：约9.214美元。（同比增长547.23%）</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29bbeed606d8edc5301b9e9b9aac1031\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"664\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>核心关注点：</strong> 卖方与媒体焦点高度集中于 <strong>HBM（高带宽内存）和DDR5在AI数据中心的需求强度</strong>、<strong>内存价格涨势的可持续性</strong>以及<strong>库存正常化进度</strong>。此外，<strong>手机与PC市场的复苏节奏</strong>以及公司<strong>产能利用率和资本开支指引</strong>也将极大影响情绪。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_2236210363\" style=\"text-align: start;\">二、核心期权指标速览</h3><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>隐含波动率（IV）：</strong> 本周到期的期权IV高达<strong>124.55%</strong>，处于极度膨胀状态。</p></li><li><p><strong>预期波动幅度：</strong> 期权市场定价暗示，财报后至到期日，股价有68%的概率波动 <strong>±8.5%</strong>，对应价格区间约为 <strong>425.15 - 503.99美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>多空持仓比：</strong> 看涨期权总未平仓量（261,990张）低于看跌期权（384,293张），Put/Call OI比率为1.47，整体持仓结构偏空。</p></li><li><p><strong>焦点行权价：</strong> <strong>400美元</strong>的看跌期权未平仓合约量最高，合约总高达261,990张。该虚值Put距离美光460美元的现价有一定距离，或是投资者购入Put做保护性看跌，也可能在这个安全距离做“Sell Put”赚取权利金。</p><p><strong><a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MU 20260320 400.0 PUT\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260320%20400.0%20PUT\">$MU 20260320 400.0 PUT$</a></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/275e48da3a2f5bb60b6e843c06a39454\" title=\"来源: Option Charts\" tg-width=\"1313\" tg-height=\"714\"/><span>来源: Option Charts</span></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4225623090\">三、大单异动：布局熊市看跌价差策略，押注美光财报后股价下跌</h3><p>美光财报前出现了两笔值得关注的熊市看跌价差策略，该策略通过买入总计近5000张430美元的看跌期权，再卖出同等数量的390美元看跌期权收取权利金，押注美光绩后股价下跌。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260320%20390.0%20PUT%20SELL%201%20%7C%20MU%2020260320%20430.0%20PUT%20BUY%201\" title=\"$MU Vertical 260320 390.0P/430.0P$\" class=\"\">$MU Vertical 260320 390.0P/430.0P$</a></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd06ee2848c581ac1fc8e255a758fe0e\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"851\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c3ec14a1fa07fa939bec334c155f2d89\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"802\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><p>但大单依然押注长期看涨，一笔大单买入明年1月到期的620美元Call, 成交额2082万美元；另一笔大单则买入750美元Call, 成交额1404万美元。</p><p><strong><a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MU 20270115 620.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020270115%20620.0%20CALL\">$MU 20270115 620.0 CALL$</a></strong></p><p><strong><a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MU 20270115 750.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020270115%20750.0%20CALL\">$MU 20270115 750.0 CALL$</a></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20c01996af7658fec5e4a77ea638d5ee\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"891\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3996630587\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">期权市场已计入了巨大的波动预期（IV>120%），导致单独买入跨式策略成本高昂。对于认为财报波动可能<strong>不及8%</strong> 的投资者，<strong>卖出虚值期权</strong>是主流思路。例如，卖出上方500美元Call或下方430美元Put，其行权价已超出市场隐含波动区间，被击中的概率相对较低。<strong>若不愿承担卖出裸期权的无限风险，可考虑构建价差策略，如熊市看涨价差（Bear Call Spread）或牛市看跌价差（Bull Put Spread），以限定最大风险。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权聚焦 | 美光财报将至，大单构建看跌价差押注或对冲绩后难以大涨；远月大单则激进看涨至620-750美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权聚焦 | 美光财报将至，大单构建看跌价差押注或对冲绩后难以大涨；远月大单则激进看涨至620-750美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-18 13:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a></strong>将于<strong>3月18日盘后</strong>发布财报，期权市场已为这一关键事件做好准备。截至当前，股价报461.69美元，而将于3月20日到期的期权链数据显示，市场预期一场剧烈的波动即将到来。</p><h3 id=\"id_3793922344\" style=\"text-align: start;\">一、 财报核心看点与市场预期</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>市场一致预期（本季度）：</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>营收</strong>：约199.4亿美元。（同比增长152.59%）</p></li><li><p><strong>每股收益（EPS）</strong>：约9.214美元。（同比增长547.23%）</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29bbeed606d8edc5301b9e9b9aac1031\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"664\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>核心关注点：</strong> 卖方与媒体焦点高度集中于 <strong>HBM（高带宽内存）和DDR5在AI数据中心的需求强度</strong>、<strong>内存价格涨势的可持续性</strong>以及<strong>库存正常化进度</strong>。此外，<strong>手机与PC市场的复苏节奏</strong>以及公司<strong>产能利用率和资本开支指引</strong>也将极大影响情绪。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_2236210363\" style=\"text-align: start;\">二、核心期权指标速览</h3><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>隐含波动率（IV）：</strong> 本周到期的期权IV高达<strong>124.55%</strong>，处于极度膨胀状态。</p></li><li><p><strong>预期波动幅度：</strong> 期权市场定价暗示，财报后至到期日，股价有68%的概率波动 <strong>±8.5%</strong>，对应价格区间约为 <strong>425.15 - 503.99美元</strong>。</p></li><li><p><strong>多空持仓比：</strong> 看涨期权总未平仓量（261,990张）低于看跌期权（384,293张），Put/Call OI比率为1.47，整体持仓结构偏空。</p></li><li><p><strong>焦点行权价：</strong> <strong>400美元</strong>的看跌期权未平仓合约量最高，合约总高达261,990张。该虚值Put距离美光460美元的现价有一定距离，或是投资者购入Put做保护性看跌，也可能在这个安全距离做“Sell Put”赚取权利金。</p><p><strong><a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MU 20260320 400.0 PUT\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260320%20400.0%20PUT\">$MU 20260320 400.0 PUT$</a></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/275e48da3a2f5bb60b6e843c06a39454\" title=\"来源: Option Charts\" tg-width=\"1313\" tg-height=\"714\"/><span>来源: Option Charts</span></p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4225623090\">三、大单异动：布局熊市看跌价差策略，押注美光财报后股价下跌</h3><p>美光财报前出现了两笔值得关注的熊市看跌价差策略，该策略通过买入总计近5000张430美元的看跌期权，再卖出同等数量的390美元看跌期权收取权利金，押注美光绩后股价下跌。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020260320%20390.0%20PUT%20SELL%201%20%7C%20MU%2020260320%20430.0%20PUT%20BUY%201\" title=\"$MU Vertical 260320 390.0P/430.0P$\" class=\"\">$MU Vertical 260320 390.0P/430.0P$</a></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd06ee2848c581ac1fc8e255a758fe0e\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"851\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c3ec14a1fa07fa939bec334c155f2d89\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"802\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><p>但大单依然押注长期看涨，一笔大单买入明年1月到期的620美元Call, 成交额2082万美元；另一笔大单则买入750美元Call, 成交额1404万美元。</p><p><strong><a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MU 20270115 620.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020270115%20620.0%20CALL\">$MU 20270115 620.0 CALL$</a></strong></p><p><strong><a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MU 20270115 750.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"MU\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU%2020270115%20750.0%20CALL\">$MU 20270115 750.0 CALL$</a></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20c01996af7658fec5e4a77ea638d5ee\" title=\"来源：Tiger Trade App\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"891\"/><span>来源：Tiger Trade App</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3996630587\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略参考</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">期权市场已计入了巨大的波动预期（IV>120%），导致单独买入跨式策略成本高昂。对于认为财报波动可能<strong>不及8%</strong> 的投资者，<strong>卖出虚值期权</strong>是主流思路。例如，卖出上方500美元Call或下方430美元Put，其行权价已超出市场隐含波动区间，被击中的概率相对较低。<strong>若不愿承担卖出裸期权的无限风险，可考虑构建价差策略，如熊市看涨价差（Bear Call Spread）或牛市看跌价差（Bull Put Spread），以限定最大风险。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172865155","content_text":"美光科技将于3月18日盘后发布财报，期权市场已为这一关键事件做好准备。截至当前，股价报461.69美元，而将于3月20日到期的期权链数据显示，市场预期一场剧烈的波动即将到来。一、 财报核心看点与市场预期市场一致预期（本季度）：营收：约199.4亿美元。（同比增长152.59%）每股收益（EPS）：约9.214美元。（同比增长547.23%）来源：Tiger Trade App核心关注点： 卖方与媒体焦点高度集中于 HBM（高带宽内存）和DDR5在AI数据中心的需求强度、内存价格涨势的可持续性以及库存正常化进度。此外，手机与PC市场的复苏节奏以及公司产能利用率和资本开支指引也将极大影响情绪。二、核心期权指标速览隐含波动率（IV）： 本周到期的期权IV高达124.55%，处于极度膨胀状态。预期波动幅度： 期权市场定价暗示，财报后至到期日，股价有68%的概率波动 ±8.5%，对应价格区间约为 425.15 - 503.99美元。多空持仓比： 看涨期权总未平仓量（261,990张）低于看跌期权（384,293张），Put/Call OI比率为1.47，整体持仓结构偏空。焦点行权价： 400美元的看跌期权未平仓合约量最高，合约总高达261,990张。该虚值Put距离美光460美元的现价有一定距离，或是投资者购入Put做保护性看跌，也可能在这个安全距离做“Sell Put”赚取权利金。$MU 20260320 400.0 PUT$来源: Option Charts三、大单异动：布局熊市看跌价差策略，押注美光财报后股价下跌美光财报前出现了两笔值得关注的熊市看跌价差策略，该策略通过买入总计近5000张430美元的看跌期权，再卖出同等数量的390美元看跌期权收取权利金，押注美光绩后股价下跌。$MU Vertical 260320 390.0P/430.0P$来源：Tiger Trade App来源：Tiger Trade App但大单依然押注长期看涨，一笔大单买入明年1月到期的620美元Call, 成交额2082万美元；另一笔大单则买入750美元Call, 成交额1404万美元。$MU 20270115 620.0 CALL$$MU 20270115 750.0 CALL$来源：Tiger Trade App策略参考期权市场已计入了巨大的波动预期（IV>120%），导致单独买入跨式策略成本高昂。对于认为财报波动可能不及8% 的投资者，卖出虚值期权是主流思路。例如，卖出上方500美元Call或下方430美元Put，其行权价已超出市场隐含波动区间，被击中的概率相对较低。若不愿承担卖出裸期权的无限风险，可考虑构建价差策略，如熊市看涨价差（Bear Call Spread）或牛市看跌价差（Bull Put Spread），以限定最大风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":543964990873720,"commentId":"543964990873720","gmtCreate":1773826853246,"gmtModify":1773826865852,"authorId":3527667635165330,"author":{"id":3527667635165330,"idStr":"3527667635165330","authorId":3527667635165330,"name":"期权女巫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.03.27","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":1,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":543894495351144,"objectIdStr":"543894495351144","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"您好数据没有问题。看涨期权总未平仓量（261,990张）低于看跌期权（384,293张），Put/Call 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