零点博弈资本
02-10
狗庄先恶意砸盘，建仓之后又反手唱多
小摩加入力挺美股软件股行列：AI冲击担忧被夸大 历史性下跌过后有望反弹
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title=\"1770730815785175.png\"/></p><p>软件板块已跌至去年4月“解放日”市场动荡以来的最低水平</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>(CRWD.US)是摩根大通策略师提及的、具备AI韧性的代表性公司之一，这类企业有望从AI提升工作流程效率中受益。该团队表示，企业级软件较高的转换成本以及多年期合同，为其抵御短期冲击提供了缓冲。</p><p>摩根大通团队还指出，从长期来看，传统软件公司是否会被AI取代仍不明朗，但当前市场对AI颠覆的悲观情绪在现阶段已经出现“过度反应”。他们补充称，软件行业目前公布的第四季度财报整体表现积极，分析师预计该行业在2026年的盈利增速将达到16.8%。</p><p>这一看多观点也呼应了由迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)领衔的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>策略师团队的判断。该策略师团队本周表示，美国科技股仍有进一步上涨空间，而软件股的下跌已经打开了“具有吸引力的入场窗口”。威尔逊在报告中写道：“在重大的投资周期中，上周那样的波动并不罕见。尽管如此，人工智能赋能型企业的基本面利好依然存在，且我们认为人工智能采用者的交易价值仍被低估。”</p><p>上周，Wedbush分析师、被市场称为“科技多头旗手”的丹·艾夫斯领导的团队同样表示，尽管AI在短期内确实可能对传统软件商业模式构成一定压力，市场对这一风险的反应明显过度，当前的软件股抛售已经隐含了“行业大规模被AI颠覆”的极端假设，而这在现实中并不具备可行性。</p><p>艾夫斯指出，企业客户在AI迁移问题上远比市场想象中谨慎。大量企业并不愿意为了追逐AI红利而将核心数据暴露在尚未完全成熟的新平台之上，更不会轻易放弃过去数十年、斥资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元构建的软件基础设施。他表示：“AI在短期内是逆风，这一点毫无疑问，但市场当前的定价方式，仿佛软件行业即将迎来‘世界末日’，这一判断在我们看来完全脱离现实。”</p><p>Wedbush强调，当前大型企业软件生态中已沉淀了数以万亿计的数据点，新兴AI公司如OpenAI和Anthropic，无论是在数据承载能力还是企业级安全防护方面，短期内都难以全面接管这些复杂系统。这意味着，AI更可能以“嵌入式工具”的形式融入现有软件平台，而非彻底取而代之。Wedbush还指出，微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> Technologies(PLTR.US)、CrowdStrike、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>(SNOW.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>(CRM.US)为当前“软件寒冬”中最值得持有的五大软件股。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)首席执行官黄仁勋在上周也驳斥了AI将取代软件及相关工具的担忧，称这种想法“不合逻辑”。黄仁勋在旧金山由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>系统主办的人工智能会议上发表讲话时表示，担心AI会降低软件公司重要性的想法是误导性的。他认为，AI将继续依赖现有的软件，而不是从头开始重建基础工具。</p><p>黄仁勋表示：“有一种观点认为，软件行业的工具正在衰落，并将被AI取代……这是世界上最不合逻辑的事情，时间会证明一切。”“如果你是人类或机器人，无论是人工的还是通用型机器人，你会使用工具还是重新发明工具?答案显而易见，是使用工具……这就是为什么AI的最新突破是关于工具的使用，因为工具的设计初衷就是为了明确地发挥作用。”</p><p><strong>AI重塑价值链与未来观察</strong></p><p>从软件工程现实与SaaS产业结构看，“AI替代整个企业软件栈”是一个容易被市场线性外推的叙事。企业级软件的“价值密度”不只在界面和功能，而在专有数据、权限/审计链、合规与责任边界、系统集成、SLA与可用性、变更管理与组织流程;这些决定了：大语言模型(LLM)再强，也往往需要高质量专有语料+结构化知识库+可控工具调用+可追溯输出才能在生产环境跑起来。</p><p>从AI工具以及SaaS软件领域的底层技术逻辑看，恐慌抛售软件股并不等同于“软件不需要了”，而是价值链被AI重分配：更强的通用大模型与代理式AI工作流(Agentic workflows)让大量“点状功能型SaaS”面临被模型层/平台层功能内生化(feature absorption)、或被“对话式入口+自动化执行”绕开UI与席位的风险，进而冲击传统基于席位(seat-based)定价与续费逻辑;市场因此更急于把软件股切成“AI赢家/AI输家”。</p><p>但反过来，企业级SaaS软件领军者们的“系统记录层”(ERP/CRM/ITSM/数据库/安全/合规)往往有数据主权、治理、权限、审计与迁移成本壁垒，现实更可能是AI把这些长期以来的软件巨头变成交付AI能力的分发渠道，而不是一夜替换整个既有软件基础设施。</p><p>在摩根士丹利策略团队看来，短期层面，软件板块暴跌确实触发了“技术面接近阶段性底部”的讨论，也出现了部分资金小幅加仓;但更多资金仍在等“能把AI应用叙事讲成实际创收曲线”的硬催化逻辑——例如软件公司披露AI相关产品营收/渗透率、企业客户明确宣布规模化部署、或续费指标(净留存、扩张率)在引入AI大模型或者代理式AI智能体后大幅走强;若缺少这些证据，反弹更像“超跌修复”，而不是新一轮趋势。</p><p>这次软件股大抛售浪潮，更像是市场在用极端方式回答一个新问题：SaaS软件厂商们的利润池会被“模型厂+agent”重新分配到什么程度?短期内，答案只能通过两个“硬指标”来校验：(1) 企业端真实部署与付费扩散速度;(2) SaaS厂商AI相关产品收入与续费/净留存的弹性——也正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRI\">汤森路透</a>Breakingviews研究报告中的部分买方代表所描述的那样，他们在等“AI相关产品的实际营收增长数据”或更多企业部署公告作为加仓催化。</p><p>在此之前，关于软件股的波动大概率会延续：一方面技术面可能出现“超卖反弹”，另一方面资金会持续做结构性切换——更偏好与AI训练/推理体系密切相关联的数据与工作流粘性强的垂直软件/数据资产型软件公司，以及能把AI落到“可控、可审计、可集成”的平台;而对护城河更弱、同质化更强、估值更贵的应用层名字，会继续要求更高的风险补偿。因此微软、MongoDB、Snowflake、Palantir以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">SAP</a>等这类聚集数据资产且基本面优质的软件巨头可能更加容易在恐慌后走出强劲超跌反弹。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小摩加入力挺美股软件股行列：AI冲击担忧被夸大 历史性下跌过后有望反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小摩加入力挺美股软件股行列：AI冲击担忧被夸大 历史性下跌过后有望反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-10 21:39 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1403877.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通策略师表示，随着市场计入了对人工智能(AI)在短期内颠覆软件行业的不切实际的预期，软件股有望从其历史性下跌中反弹。由杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布亚斯(Dubravko Lakos-Bujas)领衔的策略师团队指出，鉴于当前“极端的价格波动”，投资者应增加对高质量、对AI更具韧性的软件公司的敞口，至少在短期内，市场存在资金重新轮动回该板块的可能性。该团队在一份报告中写道：“鉴于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1403877.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING 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