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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":526169945752344,"tweetId":"526169945752344","gmtCreate":1769484339584,"gmtModify":1769484341683,"author":{"id":3519561552924054,"idStr":"3519561552924054","authorId":3519561552924054,"authorIdStr":"3519561552924054","name":"太空鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a1611c43d79e060dfced1723dc5167","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>准备打脸</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>准备打脸</p></body></html>","text":"准备打脸","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526169945752344","repostId":2606322001,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606322001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769474742,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606322001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-27 08:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"南方科技大学孟庆虎：马斯克关于“Optimus三年内做手术”的大饼烙不熟","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606322001","media":"中国经营报","summary":"【南方科技大学孟庆虎：马斯克关于“Optimus三年内做手术”的大饼烙不熟】“Optimus什么时候能超越人类最好的外科医生？答案是三年内，而且是规模化地超越。”这是马斯克于2026年1月初在公开访谈中做出的乐观预测与判断。然而南方科技大学电子与电气工程系主任、讲席教授、加拿大工程院院士孟庆虎对于马斯克的断言提出了不同的看法。孟庆虎表示：“这个‘大饼’一定‘烙不熟’，三五年内不可能。”","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　“Optimus（<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>旗下的人形<span>机器人</span><span></span>）什么时候能超越人类最好的外科医生？答案是三年内，而且是规模化地超越。”这是<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>CEO埃隆·马斯克于2026年1月初在公开访谈中做出的乐观预测与判断。</p><p>　　然而1月24日，在第三届全国<span>人工智能</span><span></span>应用场景创新挑战赛总决赛暨全国<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0800\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">人工智能</span>+应用场景创新大会上，南方科技大学电子与电气工程系主任、讲席教授、加拿大工程院院士孟庆虎对于马斯克的断言提出了不同的看法。孟庆虎表示：“这个‘大饼’一定‘烙不熟’，三五年内不可能。”</p><p>　　之所以作出这样的否定回答，孟庆虎认为，数据的掣肘导致无法构建特别优秀的“外科专家”AI Agent，同时<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300024\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">机器人</span>的硬件水平——尤其是精准度与灵巧手及其反应，和人类相比还有很大差距。</p><p>　　<strong>“大模型只是大语言模型”</strong></p><p>　　人形<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300024\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">机器人</span>的火热持续至今，《中国经营报》记者注意到，在大众认知范畴内，常常存在一个误区与疑问，那就是：以ChatGPT、DeepSeek、Gemini、千问等为代表的大模型性能已非常优秀，为什么大模型加持下的机器人依然表现得很笨拙，很多复杂的肢体动作还依赖遥控器操作？</p><p>　　对此，孟庆虎厘清了一个概念认知的误区，即“大模型”——现在使用体验表现较好的大模型实际仅仅是“大语言模型”。孟庆虎以图像处理中的一张经典黑白图片为测试样本，测试了不同版本的主流大模型的认知与理解能力，得出结论称，大模型在文本生成能力方面已实现了突破，但在图像处理方面还远远不足，“幻觉”现象更突出，这是学术界、产业界在“世界模型”“三维空间模型”“物理世界模型”等方面持续投入研发的原因。</p><p>　　与人类的认知记忆以三维世界为“基础模型”不同，现在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0800\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">人工智能</span>模型更多的仍是二维的基础模型，这决定了大模型并不是像大众所预期的那样“无所不能”，它只是处理文本信息比较在行。孟庆虎提醒道：“当我们使用AI工具时，在知其利的同时要知其弊，才能用得好。”</p><p>　　<strong>用“场景智能”替代“通用智能”</strong></p><p>　　谈及当下火热的<span>人形机器人</span><span></span>，孟庆虎指出，现在机器人缺乏两个最重要的因素，一是自主行为，二是交互性。近一年来，有目共睹的是，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1184\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">人形机器人</span>在动作控制方面取得了明显的进步——能跑半马、走猫步、翻跟头、打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002368\">太极</a>等，而这些大多仍是“预制程序”，且可能失败上百乃至上千次，有一次成功才能展示给公众看，这些并不能代表机器人的综合能力，具身智能的发展仍有很大的局限性。</p><p>　　在孟庆虎看来，人工智能要想落地就是要实现“场景智能”。要解决一个场景应用，通过极小的算力、极简的算法和有限的数据往往就能做得非常好。以无线胶囊机器人为例，患者从口腔吃下去，它能够把从口腔到消化系统这一路中的各种异常问题找出来，算法算力可控，数据仅使用消化道系统的数据集，在资源较少的情况下能够在这个应用场景中比较高效地完成任务。</p><p>　　“对于通用人工智能（AGI），在我看来，当我们把所有场景都变得智能化，就相当于把机器变成了一个人类的普通大脑，实现高维度的进度，这自然就会形成AGI。”孟庆虎说，通用模型当前面临着高质量有效数据不足的制约，在数据补齐之前，训练出来的AI模型仍是一个低维度的模型，即使称呼它为“通用模型”，但它一点都不通用。因此，应当用“场景智能”替代“通用模型”，前者是可以马上落地解决具体问题的。</p><p>　　针对马斯克关于机器人三年能做外科手术的论断，孟庆虎给予了否定的看法。孟庆虎认为，受模型性能、数据量、硬件能力等多方面影响，机器人实现成功做手术的能力可能还需要五年甚至十年的时间，未来很可能是由仿<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1184\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">人形机器人</span>再加上医生专家的AI Agent来共同完成手术。</p><p>（文章来源：中国经营报）</p> </div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>南方科技大学孟庆虎：马斯克关于“Optimus三年内做手术”的大饼烙不熟</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601263631317952.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) 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Agent，同时机器人的硬件水平——尤其是精准度与灵巧手及其反应，和人类相比还有很大差距。　　“大模型只是大语言模型”　　人形机器人的火热持续至今，《中国经营报》记者注意到，在大众认知范畴内，常常存在一个误区与疑问，那就是：以ChatGPT、DeepSeek、Gemini、千问等为代表的大模型性能已非常优秀，为什么大模型加持下的机器人依然表现得很笨拙，很多复杂的肢体动作还依赖遥控器操作？　　对此，孟庆虎厘清了一个概念认知的误区，即“大模型”——现在使用体验表现较好的大模型实际仅仅是“大语言模型”。孟庆虎以图像处理中的一张经典黑白图片为测试样本，测试了不同版本的主流大模型的认知与理解能力，得出结论称，大模型在文本生成能力方面已实现了突破，但在图像处理方面还远远不足，“幻觉”现象更突出，这是学术界、产业界在“世界模型”“三维空间模型”“物理世界模型”等方面持续投入研发的原因。　　与人类的认知记忆以三维世界为“基础模型”不同，现在人工智能模型更多的仍是二维的基础模型，这决定了大模型并不是像大众所预期的那样“无所不能”，它只是处理文本信息比较在行。孟庆虎提醒道：“当我们使用AI工具时，在知其利的同时要知其弊，才能用得好。”　　用“场景智能”替代“通用智能”　　谈及当下火热的人形机器人，孟庆虎指出，现在机器人缺乏两个最重要的因素，一是自主行为，二是交互性。近一年来，有目共睹的是，人形机器人在动作控制方面取得了明显的进步——能跑半马、走猫步、翻跟头、打太极等，而这些大多仍是“预制程序”，且可能失败上百乃至上千次，有一次成功才能展示给公众看，这些并不能代表机器人的综合能力，具身智能的发展仍有很大的局限性。　　在孟庆虎看来，人工智能要想落地就是要实现“场景智能”。要解决一个场景应用，通过极小的算力、极简的算法和有限的数据往往就能做得非常好。以无线胶囊机器人为例，患者从口腔吃下去，它能够把从口腔到消化系统这一路中的各种异常问题找出来，算法算力可控，数据仅使用消化道系统的数据集，在资源较少的情况下能够在这个应用场景中比较高效地完成任务。　　“对于通用人工智能（AGI），在我看来，当我们把所有场景都变得智能化，就相当于把机器变成了一个人类的普通大脑，实现高维度的进度，这自然就会形成AGI。”孟庆虎说，通用模型当前面临着高质量有效数据不足的制约，在数据补齐之前，训练出来的AI模型仍是一个低维度的模型，即使称呼它为“通用模型”，但它一点都不通用。因此，应当用“场景智能”替代“通用模型”，前者是可以马上落地解决具体问题的。　　针对马斯克关于机器人三年能做外科手术的论断，孟庆虎给予了否定的看法。孟庆虎认为，受模型性能、数据量、硬件能力等多方面影响，机器人实现成功做手术的能力可能还需要五年甚至十年的时间，未来很可能是由仿人形机器人再加上医生专家的AI 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