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笑死了
AI推理引爆需求！CPU产能告急，涨价来袭
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大洋彼岸的美股市场亦反映出类似情绪。当地时间1月21日美股盘后，英特尔大涨11%，AMD上涨7%。尤为引人注目的是，英特尔股价在近半年内累计反弹约180%，一度创下自2022年1月以来的新高，其反弹力度明显超出市场预期。 消息面上，据KeyBanc数据显示，在超大规模云服务商激进采购推动下，英特尔与AMD在2026年全年的服务器CPU产能已基本售罄。面对供需的极端失衡，为平抑缺货压力并锁定未来供应，两家巨头均计划将服务器CPU价格上调10%至15%。 KeyBanc分析师John Vinh在近期的供应链调查中指出，大型科技公司对AI芯片与服务器需求的增长，正推动CPU销量回升。其供应链调查显示，英特尔数据中心服务器CPU今年的产能几乎已售罄。 CPU也成了“卖方市场” 在半导体产业的传统逻辑中，存储芯片往往具有显著的周期性波动特征，而CPU更常被视为依循技术迭代稳步增长的品类。但在2026年初，这一分野正在模糊：受产能刚性约束与需求回暖的双重影响，CPU正显现出类似存储行业的供需高弹性，定价权开始向卖方倾斜。 过去两年，AI狂潮席卷全球。为了追赶生成式AI风口，全球主要云服务商大幅提升资本开支，抢购英伟达GPU及相关AI加速卡。然而，有数据中心厂商指出，在电力供应紧张、服务器机架空间有限等约束下，传统通用服务器的更新换代被推迟。 此消彼长之下，上游CPU厂商在2024年至2025年间不得不采取更为保守的防御策略：缩减产能、降低库存水位、放缓扩产节奏。其中，英特尔财报反映尤为明显：2024年全年英特尔营收同比下滑2%，至531亿美元；归属于股东的净亏损为188亿美元，而2023年净利润为17亿美元；毛利率同比下滑7.3个百分点至32.7%。 与此同时，人工智能的飞速演进彻底引爆了全球对高性能计算与存储设施的渴望。作为AI训练与推理的“数据粮仓”，DRAM、NAND Flash等存储芯片需求呈井喷之势，供需错配引发价格上行，美光、西部数据等行业巨头借势而起，成为本轮AI硬件浪潮的受益者。 随着存储周期的估值逻辑被市场充分消化与演绎，资金开始寻找下一个结构性机会。 国联民生证券将CPU称为“下一个存储的机会”。该机构指出，AI时代计算产业发展的重点在于计算架构的创新，同时CPU等通用计算的重要性有望进一步提升。新型计算场景不断涌现，对运算速度、精度等要求越来越高，计算架构的创新成为计算产业发展的重点。作为计算领域的基础设施，CPU的重要性有望凸显。 这一判断的关键在于算力结构的变化。据介绍，在早期的AI训练阶段，服务器往往采用“8 GPU + 1—2 CPU”的架构，CPU更多承担数据搬运与系统管理角色，地位相对边缘。但随着推理需求爆发，尤其是在边缘侧与私有云场景下，企业开始意识到，过度依赖昂贵GPU并不总是具备经济性。 当AI从聊天机器人进化为能够自主规划、调用工具、执行多步任务的智能体（AI Agent）时，对控制、调度、串行处理等能力的要求显著上升。在这种更复杂的系统级负载中，CPU重新获得“被需要”的位置。 汇丰分析师Frank Lee本周上调英特尔评级时指出，随着AI从简单助理演进为能够自行规划并执行任务的智能体，对通用型算力需求正在加速，而这正是CPU所承担的核心功能。 值得注意的是，英特尔近期提出AI NAS（网络附加存储）产品概念，即面向中小企业与家庭的“存储+小型本地AI算力中心”，意图抓住边缘侧与私有云的新型市场需求。 英特尔能否“王者归来”？ 即将发布的新一季度财报，将成为市场检验英特尔近期变革初步成果的关键节点。 这场变革的操盘手，是2025年3月上任的首席执行官陈立武。上任伊始，陈立武便重申“工程创新”与“以客户为中心”的战略核心，并致力于重塑更为扁平的组织架构。“我们正迈入由AI Agent（智能体）和推理模型定义的计算新时代，我的工作重点是确保英特尔打造具有竞争力的产品。”陈立武表示。 1月5日，CES展会期间，英特尔正式发布代号为“Panther Lake”的第三代酷睿Ultra处理器。该系列芯片采用英特尔18A制程制造，代表了英特尔最先进的半导体制造工艺。 “英特尔兑现了承诺，实现了在2025年出货采用18A工艺制造芯片的目标。实际上，我们提前完成了目标。”陈立武称，第三代酷睿Ultra处理器已于2025年底生产并超额交付。 陈立武强调，英特尔具备将芯片设计、先进工艺与封装技术紧密结合的能力，而新一代酷睿Ultra处理器是为AI驱动的未来而设计。 观察来看，英特尔的“复兴路线图”围绕三大支柱展开：重塑x86生态、把握AI机遇，以及最关键的突破先进制程。其中，Intel 18A制程的成败，被视为英特尔能否翻身的关键变量。 在数据中心领域，2025年10月，英特尔展示了代号为Clearwater Forest的下一代至强6+处理器，同样基于18A制程，预计于2026年正式推出。 前述KeyBanc分析师John Vinh甚至乐观预测，凭借18A的进展，英特尔有望超越三星，成为业内可信赖的第二大晶圆代工供应商。 然而，要断言英特尔翻身或许仍为时尚早。前AMD高管、半导体分析师Patrick Moorhead认为，虽然新一代酷睿处理器在理论上让英特尔重获技术竞争力，但一个成功的平台不仅取决于技术，还需要工程资源、销售与市场策略的多方配合。目前，英特尔虽然在笔记本市场仍占据主要份额，但在数据中心市场，AMD的步步紧逼与Arm架构在数据中心市场扩张，依然是巨大的威胁。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688262":1.85,"AMDU":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"04335":1.97,"INTC":1.97,"AMDW":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMD":1.86}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/524867850252824"}
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