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台积电产能供不应求，芯片将迎来新的涨价周期？
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08:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电产能供不应求，芯片将迎来新的涨价周期？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2605437027","media":"乔令投研","summary":"而现在台积电的3nm已经供不应求，几乎没有了议价的余地。台积电最新公布的25Q4财报，不仅反映了人工智能产业的景气，也预示着芯片即将迎来全面涨价的新周期。截至四季度，3nm的占比提升至28%，5nm的占比35%，7nm的占比14%，叠加即将放量的2nm预期，台积电的高端产能所贡献的收入将达到80%。目前不论是3nm、2nm的制程工艺还是高端的Cowos封装技术，台积电几乎是行业垄断地位，有绝对的议价权。","content":"<p>两年前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>因为3nm成本昂贵的问题，还和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>达成了只为良率付款的协议，这让台积电承担了部分不良的风险和成本。而现在台积电的3nm已经供不应求，几乎没有了议价的余地。</p><p>台积电最新公布的25Q4财报，不仅反映了人工智能产业的景气，也预示着芯片即将迎来全面涨价的新周期。</p><p>25年Q4，台积电毛利率/营业利润率达到62%/54%，净利润为161亿美元，净利润同比增长35%，收入同比增长20%，业绩全面超市场预期。2026年营收预计也将增长30%，长期年复合增长率也从之前的20%上调至25%。</p><p>因为产能紧俏，台积电将新财年的资本支出上调至520亿-560亿美元，高出此前市场预期的490亿美元。基于超预期的资本开支，财报后不仅台积电股价大涨，上游卖设备的TEL、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">拉姆研究</a>和Asml股价均同步上涨。</p><p>作为晶圆代工的头部厂商，台积电的资本开支基本都是用来买设备建产线，2026年的资本支出也将在2028年转化成新产能，这就意味着26年和27年的增长基本是来自现有的产能转化以及效率的提升，但考虑到增产的积极指引，外资行也给了台积电比较高的预期。大摩给2024-2029AI半导体的年复合增长预测是60%。</p><p>全靠AI大户</p><p>芯片产业的技术迭代一直是遵循摩尔定律，即每隔18至24个月集成线路上的晶体管数量就翻一倍。而晶圆厂要赚取更高的利润，差不多也是每一年都要更新产线和工艺制程。本质上来说，这是一个产能决定竞争力的产业。但是，台积电靠着断层的技术领先与充沛产能，一直占据着市场70%的份额，高端工艺几乎等同垄断。</p><p>根据财报，台积电的毛利率常年维持在50%以上，近两年因为AI产业的爆发，Q3的毛利率已经升至62%，连净利润都干到了48%，四季度出货量环比下降了3%，但是单片晶圆的价格环比增长了5%，高端工艺的占比持续提升。</p><p>截至四季度，3nm的占比提升至28%，5nm的占比35%，7nm的占比14%，叠加即将放量的2nm预期，台积电的高端产能所贡献的收入将达到80%。</p><p>近三年时间，台积电的整体毛利率从53%到62%，差不多提升了10%，<strong>主要的驱动因素有两方面：</strong></p><p>一是，随着AI产业的发展，下游大模型的数据计算量需求暴增，中游数据厂也在加码扩建数据中心，上游芯片供不应求的同时，大模型对算力的需求也倒逼厂商加快技术升级。原本的服务器CPU平台可能只需要5nm、7nm的工艺就能满足，而现在的GPU服务器平台已经卷上了4nm、3nm。</p><p>比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，已经将Blackwell GPU从N4节点迁移至N3节点的Rubin，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>的ASIC和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>的Trainium也在朝着3纳米4纳米的技术迭代。</p><p>先前，整个芯片产业技术迭代最快的是手机Soc芯片，台积电3nm的产能主要是供苹果，4纳米和5纳米的产能拿给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和NVDA做GUP和CPU。现在等于说是，除了手机芯片的工艺加速迭代外，Ai产业也开始追求摩尔定律的极致性能。包括英伟达、AMD、AVGO都在积极地抢夺3nm产能。</p><p>二是Cowos封装供不应求。Cowos不算是新技术，早在2012年，赛灵思就已经用Cowos技术封装FPGA芯片。因为这个封装的工艺极其昂贵，早期确实没几个客户，直到AI产业爆发，这帮不缺钱的大厂把产能买爆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fe3590d095933fbf51e42a62f3a1290\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>在AI的计算中，数据的传输速度往往比运算速度更重要，Cowos的核心价值在于它提供了一个超高速的中介层，将逻辑芯片（GPU/ASIC）和HBM连在一起，突破传统的内存墙解决速度慢、延迟高的问题，能将6—12颗HBM环绕在GPU周围，通过微米级的布线直接连接，带宽比传统封装高出数十倍。</p><p>跟HBM的逻辑差不多，HBM也是通过堆叠的方式把内存芯片像盖楼一样叠在一起，并紧贴在处理器旁边。</p><p>目前不论是3nm、2nm的制程工艺还是高端的Cowos封装技术，台积电几乎是行业垄断地位，有绝对的议价权。Intel和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>也在努力，但良率和产能跟台积电都有较大的差距。Intel目前主要内供，暂时代工部分还没有外部客户。</p><p>产能紧缺影响</p><p>Cowos产能已经被几家Ai大厂包圆，Morgan Stanley给的产能预期是2026年将达到12.5万片/月，新的产能主要是分配给英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>，部分给了联发科，其实联发科和博通做的都是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的订单。</p><p>英伟达的Cowos产能预计从59万片提升至70万片，博通大概是23万片，这其中有2万片是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>的订单，其他的包括AMD和亚马逊的Trainium。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53ace55f5e630f3278d7e668a0cefb7e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\"></p><p>3纳米的产能到2026年将增长至14-15万片/月，因为需求比较紧张，台积电的扩产除了新建工厂以外，还包括了部分产能的转化，比如将部分4/5纳米的产能转换成3纳米，另外将部分22纳米/28纳米工艺产线转至欧洲。</p><p>台积电也可能把一些成熟的工艺转化过来做中介层，新的订单分配给世界先进和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>，联电和世界先进已经开始提价了。总之新财年成熟工艺的产能整体可能会收缩，<strong>这也就是为啥开头我说接下来是芯片的涨价新周期</strong>。</p><p>由于成熟工艺的收缩，以及4纳米5纳米产能的转换，下游CPU和显卡的高端产能收缩必然会导致产品提价。目前，Intel和AMD的CPU和显卡都已经开始提价，英伟达的5060和5090都出现了不同程度的涨价。</p><p>在存储大年之后，2026年极有可能是CPU提价的大年。CPU行业的集中度本身就很高，AMD和Intel几乎拿下了所有的市场份额，而且Intel经历了这么几年的跌宕起伏，在新的财年是有动力去减产控价的。Nvda当下的重心还是在Ai，既然显卡产能也紧俏，那减产提价也有利于推动新财年的业绩增长。</p><p>消费电子端的需求本身不算强劲，但头部大厂这两年在Ai里实在是赚得盆满钵满，消费电子端的价格内卷是该停一停了。</p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p><strong>台积电的增长逻辑深度绑定</strong>AI产业的发展持续性，未来的走势也取决于两大关键变量：一是云厂商资本开支的持续性；二是AI大模型企业的上市融资进程。</p><p><strong>当前，几家云巨头的资本开支是</strong>AI硬件需求的核心驱动力。Q4财报季已经开始，如果接下来各大云厂商继续上调资本开支，这也将直接带动GPU、ASIC、服务器等硬件产品的需求增长，进而传导至台积电的先进支撑与Cowos封装产能。</p><p><strong>另外，</strong>Open AI与Anthropic预期也将在年内上市，如果两家大模型顺利上市融资，之前承诺的订单得以兑现，Ai产业的故事就能持续。只要AI继续，台积电似乎就没尽头。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电产能供不应求，芯片将迎来新的涨价周期？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电产能供不应求，芯片将迎来新的涨价周期？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-22 08:43 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260122090210a447778d&s=b><strong>乔令投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>两年前，苹果因为3nm成本昂贵的问题，还和台积电达成了只为良率付款的协议，这让台积电承担了部分不良的风险和成本。而现在台积电的3nm已经供不应求，几乎没有了议价的余地。台积电最新公布的25Q4财报，不仅反映了人工智能产业的景气，也预示着芯片即将迎来全面涨价的新周期。25年Q4，台积电毛利率/营业利润率达到62%/54%，净利润为161亿美元，净利润同比增长35%，收入同比增长20%，业绩全面超市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260122090210a447778d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260122090210a447778d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2605437027","content_text":"两年前，苹果因为3nm成本昂贵的问题，还和台积电达成了只为良率付款的协议，这让台积电承担了部分不良的风险和成本。而现在台积电的3nm已经供不应求，几乎没有了议价的余地。台积电最新公布的25Q4财报，不仅反映了人工智能产业的景气，也预示着芯片即将迎来全面涨价的新周期。25年Q4，台积电毛利率/营业利润率达到62%/54%，净利润为161亿美元，净利润同比增长35%，收入同比增长20%，业绩全面超市场预期。2026年营收预计也将增长30%，长期年复合增长率也从之前的20%上调至25%。因为产能紧俏，台积电将新财年的资本支出上调至520亿-560亿美元，高出此前市场预期的490亿美元。基于超预期的资本开支，财报后不仅台积电股价大涨，上游卖设备的TEL、拉姆研究和Asml股价均同步上涨。作为晶圆代工的头部厂商，台积电的资本开支基本都是用来买设备建产线，2026年的资本支出也将在2028年转化成新产能，这就意味着26年和27年的增长基本是来自现有的产能转化以及效率的提升，但考虑到增产的积极指引，外资行也给了台积电比较高的预期。大摩给2024-2029AI半导体的年复合增长预测是60%。全靠AI大户芯片产业的技术迭代一直是遵循摩尔定律，即每隔18至24个月集成线路上的晶体管数量就翻一倍。而晶圆厂要赚取更高的利润，差不多也是每一年都要更新产线和工艺制程。本质上来说，这是一个产能决定竞争力的产业。但是，台积电靠着断层的技术领先与充沛产能，一直占据着市场70%的份额，高端工艺几乎等同垄断。根据财报，台积电的毛利率常年维持在50%以上，近两年因为AI产业的爆发，Q3的毛利率已经升至62%，连净利润都干到了48%，四季度出货量环比下降了3%，但是单片晶圆的价格环比增长了5%，高端工艺的占比持续提升。截至四季度，3nm的占比提升至28%，5nm的占比35%，7nm的占比14%，叠加即将放量的2nm预期，台积电的高端产能所贡献的收入将达到80%。近三年时间，台积电的整体毛利率从53%到62%，差不多提升了10%，主要的驱动因素有两方面：一是，随着AI产业的发展，下游大模型的数据计算量需求暴增，中游数据厂也在加码扩建数据中心，上游芯片供不应求的同时，大模型对算力的需求也倒逼厂商加快技术升级。原本的服务器CPU平台可能只需要5nm、7nm的工艺就能满足，而现在的GPU服务器平台已经卷上了4nm、3nm。比如英伟达，已经将Blackwell GPU从N4节点迁移至N3节点的Rubin，博通的ASIC和亚马逊的Trainium也在朝着3纳米4纳米的技术迭代。先前，整个芯片产业技术迭代最快的是手机Soc芯片，台积电3nm的产能主要是供苹果，4纳米和5纳米的产能拿给AMD和NVDA做GUP和CPU。现在等于说是，除了手机芯片的工艺加速迭代外，Ai产业也开始追求摩尔定律的极致性能。包括英伟达、AMD、AVGO都在积极地抢夺3nm产能。二是Cowos封装供不应求。Cowos不算是新技术，早在2012年，赛灵思就已经用Cowos技术封装FPGA芯片。因为这个封装的工艺极其昂贵，早期确实没几个客户，直到AI产业爆发，这帮不缺钱的大厂把产能买爆。在AI的计算中，数据的传输速度往往比运算速度更重要，Cowos的核心价值在于它提供了一个超高速的中介层，将逻辑芯片（GPU/ASIC）和HBM连在一起，突破传统的内存墙解决速度慢、延迟高的问题，能将6—12颗HBM环绕在GPU周围，通过微米级的布线直接连接，带宽比传统封装高出数十倍。跟HBM的逻辑差不多，HBM也是通过堆叠的方式把内存芯片像盖楼一样叠在一起，并紧贴在处理器旁边。目前不论是3nm、2nm的制程工艺还是高端的Cowos封装技术，台积电几乎是行业垄断地位，有绝对的议价权。Intel和三星也在努力，但良率和产能跟台积电都有较大的差距。Intel目前主要内供，暂时代工部分还没有外部客户。产能紧缺影响Cowos产能已经被几家Ai大厂包圆，Morgan Stanley给的产能预期是2026年将达到12.5万片/月，新的产能主要是分配给英伟达和博通，部分给了联发科，其实联发科和博通做的都是谷歌的订单。英伟达的Cowos产能预计从59万片提升至70万片，博通大概是23万片，这其中有2万片是Meta的订单，其他的包括AMD和亚马逊的Trainium。3纳米的产能到2026年将增长至14-15万片/月，因为需求比较紧张，台积电的扩产除了新建工厂以外，还包括了部分产能的转化，比如将部分4/5纳米的产能转换成3纳米，另外将部分22纳米/28纳米工艺产线转至欧洲。台积电也可能把一些成熟的工艺转化过来做中介层，新的订单分配给世界先进和联电，联电和世界先进已经开始提价了。总之新财年成熟工艺的产能整体可能会收缩，这也就是为啥开头我说接下来是芯片的涨价新周期。由于成熟工艺的收缩，以及4纳米5纳米产能的转换，下游CPU和显卡的高端产能收缩必然会导致产品提价。目前，Intel和AMD的CPU和显卡都已经开始提价，英伟达的5060和5090都出现了不同程度的涨价。在存储大年之后，2026年极有可能是CPU提价的大年。CPU行业的集中度本身就很高，AMD和Intel几乎拿下了所有的市场份额，而且Intel经历了这么几年的跌宕起伏，在新的财年是有动力去减产控价的。Nvda当下的重心还是在Ai，既然显卡产能也紧俏，那减产提价也有利于推动新财年的业绩增长。消费电子端的需求本身不算强劲，但头部大厂这两年在Ai里实在是赚得盆满钵满，消费电子端的价格内卷是该停一停了。总结台积电的增长逻辑深度绑定AI产业的发展持续性，未来的走势也取决于两大关键变量：一是云厂商资本开支的持续性；二是AI大模型企业的上市融资进程。当前，几家云巨头的资本开支是AI硬件需求的核心驱动力。Q4财报季已经开始，如果接下来各大云厂商继续上调资本开支，这也将直接带动GPU、ASIC、服务器等硬件产品的需求增长，进而传导至台积电的先进支撑与Cowos封装产能。另外，Open 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