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01-13
intel amd盘前拉升，这不是打花旗的脸吗
花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！
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amd盘前拉升，这不是打花旗的脸吗","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521297853551952","repostId":2603098165,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2603098165","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768290824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2603098165?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-13 15:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603098165","media":"行知交易员","summary":"花旗维持对AMD的“中性”评级，对英特尔维持“卖出”评级。02 |公司影响：对AMD与英特尔构成短暂喘息第四季度出货数据优于预期，为AMD和英特尔即将发布的季度财报带来了温和的短期积极影响。花旗指出，AMD约30%的营收来自PC端市场，而英特尔则有约90%的营收依赖于PC与服务器市场。花旗给出的AMD目标价为260美元，基于约32倍2027年预期市盈率；英特尔目标价为29美元，约为其2026年预估账面价值的1倍，反映出对其较低盈利能力的担忧。","content":"<html><body><article><p>花旗研究发布最新半导体行业报告指出，2025年12月笔记本<span>出货</span>环比增长14%，推动第四季度整体出货仅环比下降5%，优于此前下滑11%的预期，主要受内存价格上涨推动的战略性库存回补影响。</p><p>这对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>（营收占比15%）与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>（营收占比36%）等依赖笔记本业务的公司构成短期温和利好。</p><p>然而，分析师预计2026年第一季度笔记本出货将环比下降15%，显著弱于正常的季节性下滑9%，主要受内存供应限制影响。</p><p>花旗维持对AMD的“中性”评级，对英特尔维持“卖出”评级。</p><p><strong>01 |</strong>数据解读：Q4优于预期，但Q1前景疲软</p><p>2025年12月，全球笔记本（主要通过中国台湾ODM数据观测）出货量环比增长14%，超出花旗预期。</p><p>这使得2025年第四季度整体笔记本出货量环比下降5%，优于花旗此前下滑11%的预测，也高于历史同期平均7%的降幅。</p><p>然而，展望2026年第一季度，花旗笔记本分析师Carrie Liu预计，由于内存供应限制，出货量将环比下降15%，显著低于正常季节性环比下降9%的规律。</p><p>这预示着个人电脑市场在年初将面临短期压力。</p><p><strong>02 |</strong>公司影响：对AMD与英特尔构成短暂喘息</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260113160329700v206nu2w6elrsh7\"/><p>第四季度出货数据优于预期，为AMD和英特尔即将发布的季度财报带来了温和的短期积极影响。</p><p>花旗指出，AMD约30%的营收来自PC端市场，而英特尔则有约90%的营收依赖于PC与服务器市场。</p><p>尽管有短期利好，但花旗对两家公司的长期看法并未改变，维持了对AMD的“中性”评级，以及对英特尔的“卖出”评级。</p><p>花旗给出的AMD目标价为260美元，基于约32倍2027年预期市盈率；英特尔目标价为29美元，约为其2026年预估账面价值的1倍，反映出对其较低盈利能力的担忧。</p><p><strong>03 |</strong>风险透视：关键风险点解析</p><p>报告详细列举了AMD与英特尔面临的主要风险：</p><p>“对于AMD”</p><p>1. 竞争风险：在微处理器市场直接与英特尔竞争，在GPU和AI加速器市场则直面<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，市场份额的任何波动都可能影响业绩。</p><p>2. 终端市场风险：约30%营收来自PC产业，高度依赖企业IT支出。</p><p>3. 客户集中风险：约15%营收来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>，来自这两家大客户的订单波动将直接影响业绩预期。</p><p>4. 估值风险：当前估值略高于历史区间，市场共识收入预测的修正可能导致股价高波动。</p><p>“对于英特尔”</p><p>1. 终端市场风险：约90%营收来自PC与服务器，对IT支出周期极为敏感。</p><p>2. 竞争风险：在核心CPU市场持续面临AMD的激烈竞争。</p><p>3. 客户集中风险：前几大PC OEM客户合计贡献约45%营收，大客户订单下滑将带来显著负面影响。</p><p>4. 宏观经济风险：业务遍布全球， prolonged 的宏观经济下行或上行会影响其业绩与评级。</p><p><strong>04 |</strong>总结</p><p>【核心观点】</p><p>Q4笔记本供应链数据因内存价格预期引发的战略性备货而短暂走强，为依赖该市场的半导体公司（尤其是INTC）提供了季度业绩的缓冲垫。</p><p>但这并非需求侧的真实改善信号。</p><p>【关键推断】</p><p>Q1指引的大幅下滑（-15% QoQ vs. 季节性-9%）验证了终端需求的疲软和渠道库存回补的不可持续性。</p><p>内存供应限制是表象，核心仍是终端消费与企业IT支出的放缓。</p><p>【操作启示】</p><p>该数据不足以扭转对PC半导体板块的结构性看跌观点。</p><p>AMD因在AI/数据中心领域的增长叙事而获得估值支撑，维持中性；</p><p>INTC因其对PC/服务器市场的极高敞口、竞争劣势及盈利能见度低，下行风险更甚，维持看跌。</p><p>交易应回避对传统PC周期敏感的标的，关注库存去化进度与AI相关资本开支的持续性。</p><p>...</p><p>完整内容在星球了...</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260113160337249v206ebgac0toc6j\"/><p>...</p><p>深度星球订阅链接：https://t.zsxq.com/NR0qH</p><p>本文所涉及一切内容仅供分享参考，接收人不因阅读本文而被视为我方客户，也不构成向任何人发出出售或购买证券或其他投资标的的邀请，更不构成交易依据。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，本文所有信息及观点均不构成任何投资建议；过往业绩不代表未来表现，投资者应依据自身风险承受能力进行审慎评估、独立决策并自行承担全部责任。任何情况下，我方均不对因使用本文内容而产生的任何损失承担责任。相关数据可能存在滞后或误差，我方不对信息的完整性及准确性承担法律责任。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n花旗：卖出英特尔与AMD！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-13 15:53 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260113160413a714d59a&s=b><strong>行知交易员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>花旗研究发布最新半导体行业报告指出，2025年12月笔记本出货环比增长14%，推动第四季度整体出货仅环比下降5%，优于此前下滑11%的预期，主要受内存价格上涨推动的战略性库存回补影响。这对AMD（营收占比15%）与英特尔（营收占比36%）等依赖笔记本业务的公司构成短期温和利好。然而，分析师预计2026年第一季度笔记本出货将环比下降15%，显著弱于正常的季节性下滑9%，主要受内存供应限制影响。花旗...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260113160413a714d59a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2355687059.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL IMPACT \"BP\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","INTC":"英特尔","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) 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|公司影响：对AMD与英特尔构成短暂喘息第四季度出货数据优于预期，为AMD和英特尔即将发布的季度财报带来了温和的短期积极影响。花旗指出，AMD约30%的营收来自PC端市场，而英特尔则有约90%的营收依赖于PC与服务器市场。尽管有短期利好，但花旗对两家公司的长期看法并未改变，维持了对AMD的“中性”评级，以及对英特尔的“卖出”评级。花旗给出的AMD目标价为260美元，基于约32倍2027年预期市盈率；英特尔目标价为29美元，约为其2026年预估账面价值的1倍，反映出对其较低盈利能力的担忧。03 |风险透视：关键风险点解析报告详细列举了AMD与英特尔面临的主要风险：“对于AMD”1. 竞争风险：在微处理器市场直接与英特尔竞争，在GPU和AI加速器市场则直面英伟达，市场份额的任何波动都可能影响业绩。2. 终端市场风险：约30%营收来自PC产业，高度依赖企业IT支出。3. 客户集中风险：约15%营收来自索尼和微软，来自这两家大客户的订单波动将直接影响业绩预期。4. 估值风险：当前估值略高于历史区间，市场共识收入预测的修正可能导致股价高波动。“对于英特尔”1. 终端市场风险：约90%营收来自PC与服务器，对IT支出周期极为敏感。2. 竞争风险：在核心CPU市场持续面临AMD的激烈竞争。3. 客户集中风险：前几大PC OEM客户合计贡献约45%营收，大客户订单下滑将带来显著负面影响。4. 宏观经济风险：业务遍布全球， prolonged 的宏观经济下行或上行会影响其业绩与评级。04 |总结【核心观点】Q4笔记本供应链数据因内存价格预期引发的战略性备货而短暂走强，为依赖该市场的半导体公司（尤其是INTC）提供了季度业绩的缓冲垫。但这并非需求侧的真实改善信号。【关键推断】Q1指引的大幅下滑（-15% QoQ vs. 季节性-9%）验证了终端需求的疲软和渠道库存回补的不可持续性。内存供应限制是表象，核心仍是终端消费与企业IT支出的放缓。【操作启示】该数据不足以扭转对PC半导体板块的结构性看跌观点。AMD因在AI/数据中心领域的增长叙事而获得估值支撑，维持中性；INTC因其对PC/服务器市场的极高敞口、竞争劣势及盈利能见度低，下行风险更甚，维持看跌。交易应回避对传统PC周期敏感的标的，关注库存去化进度与AI相关资本开支的持续性。...完整内容在星球了......深度星球订阅链接：https://t.zsxq.com/NR0qH本文所涉及一切内容仅供分享参考，接收人不因阅读本文而被视为我方客户，也不构成向任何人发出出售或购买证券或其他投资标的的邀请，更不构成交易依据。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，本文所有信息及观点均不构成任何投资建议；过往业绩不代表未来表现，投资者应依据自身风险承受能力进行审慎评估、独立决策并自行承担全部责任。任何情况下，我方均不对因使用本文内容而产生的任何损失承担责任。相关数据可能存在滞后或误差，我方不对信息的完整性及准确性承担法律责任。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"04335":1.95,"INTC":1.95,"AMD":1.93}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":35,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/521297853551952"}
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