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2025-12-26
傻子都知道他车卖疯了，居然说人家卖少了？
瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？
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18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock 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Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":38,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/514772477046872"}
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