Chengqf
2025-12-22
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
但斌最新访谈精华版来了
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>是这样情况，他应该把茅台换成英伟达。东方港湾其实是践行了他的这个想法。坦率说，他是企业家，我们是基金经理，我们更应该是战斗在一线的投资人，更应该敏锐洞察世界变化的方向选择。我觉得这个时代非常快、时间非常残酷，作为投资人，如果不迭代、不具有更敏锐的洞察力，很可能被时代淘汰。</p><p>6.目前我们是在遇到系统性风险时才做风控，正常情况下基本满仓操作。</p><p>7.我跟很多朋友交流，他们说要买我们的基金，我如果你海外有账户，就只买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>，因为你只买这一个可能赚得比我们多。对散户来说，最大优势是可以全力以赴，可能赚得更多。</p><p>8.投资比的是思考的远见，比谁看得远、看得准、敢重仓、能坚持。你看得远、没看错，经过波折后它就会回来。金融<span>资产</span>最大的风险是你持有的底层资产出现重大问题。</p><p>9.我对目前还坚守在白酒里的朋友表示敬意，因为这两年其他人都“吃香的喝辣的”，你们还在水深火热之中，确实如此。</p><p>10.A股想有慢牛挺难的。对中国经济和中国企业来说，最关键的是让商业模式护城河足够深、足够宽，让利润保持长久增长，这才是慢牛的基础。我希望从新的开始，中国会有一个慢牛。</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>但斌：推荐朋友直接买谷歌</strong></p><p>但斌这两年另一个巨大的争议点，在于他投资美股，他认为这是为了给客户寻找更好的回报。</p><p>在他看来，美国有很多原创的商业模式，一旦成功，它们赚的是全世界的钱，且拥有垄断优势，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>一家就拿走了行业绝大部分利润；中国企业，无论是苹果链还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>链，如果只做国内循环，利润很难保证。</p><p>同时，但斌也透露，他们有一部分仓位投资于A股这些产业链当中。</p><p>当被问及为什么现在不再关注A股，而是转而去投资时，但斌回答：你这个也是错的，我们有30%的基金买不了美股，这些基金在A股和港股也有配置。</p><p>他进一步解释，包括英伟达产业链、谷歌产业链，我们在A股也持有不少，只是因为基金比较多、分散，所以没有出现在十大股东里，你看纳指<span>ETF</span>，当年我们买了很多，也出现在过持仓榜单里。</p><p>但斌表示，东方港湾这两年类似于资产管理公司出海，参与全球竞争。</p><p>在这个环节，但斌甚至给出了一个建议。</p><p>他透露，自己经常跟想买他基金的朋友说：“你不用买我的基金，如果你有海外账户，直接买谷歌就行了。”</p><p>但斌解释道，对于散户来说，最大的优势是可以全力以赴，买谷歌这一个标的，可能赚得比基金还多，还省去了管理费。</p><p>他表示：“如果你能找到那些伟大的公司——我一直认为投资是共享的事业，我也愿意分享——真正的好公司如果能涨100倍、1000倍甚至1万倍，一定是共赢的游戏：你看好我也看好，众人拾柴火焰高。</p><p>对一般<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>来说，辨别那些伟大公司并不困难。就像过去几十年，龙头白酒和互联网龙头这些公司，你看它好坏不需要太多知识；海外的英伟达、谷歌、苹果，需要很专业的知识吗？也不一定。</p><p>你可以全力以赴，可以做得比专业机构、专家还好。所以对老百姓来说，只需要买那些王冠上的明珠去投资就行了。如果不行，就买ETF，比如标普ETF，或者看好人工智能就买A股的人工智能ETF等，我觉得都足够了。”</p><p>但他同时给出了一个严厉警告：千万不能借钱、融资炒股票，这是大忌。</p><p>他表示，东方港湾之所以能有“九条命”，因为没有融资，如果有融资，2008年、白酒危机、2022年、今年4月跌那么狠，都被干掉了；只要不借钱，买最好的公司或买ETF，想输钱也挺困难的。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>但斌透露海外基金的两大持仓</strong></p><p>现在的但斌，言必称AI。在他看来，这不仅仅是一次技术升级，而是人类物种级别的进化。</p><p>关于最近孙正义清仓英伟达买入OpenAI，但斌表示，这次操作，如果OpenAI估值能到1万亿，那他是对的。</p><p>但在他看来，OpenAI、谷歌、Gemini之间的竞争变数很大，作为基金经理，他更喜欢确定性。</p><p>但斌透露，东方港湾海外基金的第一大持仓是英伟达，第二是谷歌，像特斯拉这种不确定性较高的，仓位就没那么重。</p><p>面对市场上关于“AI泡沫”的质疑，他的态度非常坚决，甚至带有一种“赌上职业生涯”的意味。他认为现在正处于类似1998年的前夜，而不是2000年的泡沫破裂期。</p><p>对于孙正义那种激进的一级市场豪赌，但斌选择了更具确定性的“卖铲子”的人和拥有最深护城河的巨头。</p><p>但斌不认为现在AI有泡沫，他说问问一线的企业家，排期都排到2027年了，根本没人觉得是泡沫，这是一个伟大的时代，软硬件是相辅相成的。</p><p>但斌判断，现在不像2000年，更像1998年，人工智能不可能三年就结束，它至少是个十年的周期。</p><p>同时他也提醒，错失一个时代的风险，比天天担心风险的风险更大，我们这一代投资人，这很可能是不该失去的最后一个伟大时代。</p><p>但斌认为，如果几十亿年后人类还想生存，今天就是开始。当然，落地到现实，它可以攻克癌症，让人类活到120岁，甚至实现机器永生。它的意义既可以仰望星空，也可以落在脚下。</p><p>他说：“从星系的角度看，地球终将不再适合生存，从碳基生命到硅基生命的历程中，人工智能可能是一个起点，也许人类只是过客，AI将帮助我们穿越银河系。”</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>告别白酒：并非不爱，而是时代变了？</strong></p><p>这是本次访谈中最让传统价值投资者感到“不适”的部分。</p><p>曾经但斌是白酒价值投资最坚定的信徒，那句“时间的玫瑰”曾陪伴无数股民坚守，但现在他对白酒的增长表示悲观。</p><p>但斌坦言，实际上他是践行了段永平的想法：“段永平先生说过一句话，如果他早点知道英伟达是这样情况，他应该把茅台换成英伟达。</p><p>东方港湾其实是践行了他的这个想法。</p><p>坦率说，他是企业家，我们是基金经理，我们更应该是战斗在一线的投资人，更应该敏锐洞察世界变化的方向选择。</p><p>我觉得这个时代非常快、时间非常残酷，作为投资人，如果不迭代、不具有更敏锐的洞察力，很可能被时代淘汰。”</p><p>对于白酒板块，但斌给出了较为争议的理由。他指出，当年买白酒是因为中国中产阶级崛起，但现在最大的变量是房地产。</p><p>但斌表示，如果房价下跌30%-40%，老百姓绝大多数财富都在房子上，大家还有心情喝茅台吗。</p><p>对于白酒，但斌更担忧的是长远的人口结构。他算了一笔账，按照现在的出生率，到2100年中国人口可能只有4亿，如果投资不考虑这种长远的人口断崖，一味坚持那逻辑就错了。</p><p>对于依然坚守在白酒里的投资者，但斌的话虽然尖锐，但也透露出无奈。</p><p>他直言，投资没有对错，我对目前还坚守在白酒里的朋友表示敬意，因为这两年其他人都“吃香的喝辣的”，你们还在水深火热之中，确实如此。</p><p>他表示这不是为了安慰谁，只是有什么说什么，哪怕得罪朋友，说的也是内心话。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>但斌坦言：A股慢牛不容易</strong></p><p>访谈的最后，在一片期待“牛市”的呼声中，但斌坦言：A股想有慢牛挺难的。</p><p>他表示，历史规律就是“到目前为止，A股过去历史基本涨两年，跌四五年、三四年——比如2014、2015、2007、2008，再往前1999、2000年，基本涨两年，跌很长时间”，如果从这轮调整开始算，可能还要熬上一段时间。</p><p>他指出过去美国市场200年，年化大概6.6%，从1美元变成103万，绝大部分收益来自于技术进步和企业内生的利润增长（包括<span>回购</span>和<span>分红</span>），只有极少部分来自估值提升。</p><p>巴菲特非常感激“子宫论”，说他很庆幸生在美国。但这200年中，5%来自内生增长，4.8%来自分红或回购，只有0.7%来自估值变化。真正推动资本市场长期的力量，一是技术进步，二是内生利润增长。</p><p>但斌强调，对中国经济和中国企业来说，最关键的是让商业模式护城河足够深、足够宽，让利润保持长久增长，这才是慢牛的基础。</p><p>最后他表示，希望从新的开始，中国会有一个慢牛。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n但斌最新访谈精华版来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-22 15:38 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251222153840a6c05a6a&s=b><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为中国资本市场最具争议性、也最具话题度的顶流私募大佬之一，但斌身上的标签经历了巨大反转。从昔日的“茅台铁粉”到如今的“AI布道者”，从坚守A股白酒龙头到“基金出海”押注美股。在最新的一次访谈里，但斌不仅谈到了为什么“抛弃”白酒，也提及了对A股“慢牛”的看法，甚至直言不讳地建议朋友“不用买我的基金，直接买谷歌，可能赚得比我们多。”这里将这场深度对话，提炼了10句核心金句，并对对话进行了精编与拆解。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251222153840a6c05a6a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN 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SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251222153840a6c05a6a&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2593104009","content_text":"作为中国资本市场最具争议性、也最具话题度的顶流私募大佬之一，但斌身上的标签经历了巨大反转。从昔日的“茅台铁粉”到如今的“AI布道者”，从坚守A股白酒龙头到“基金出海”押注美股。在最新的一次访谈里，但斌不仅谈到了为什么“抛弃”白酒，也提及了对A股“慢牛”的看法，甚至直言不讳地建议朋友“不用买我的基金，直接买谷歌，可能赚得比我们多。”这里将这场深度对话，提炼了10句核心金句，并对对话进行了精编与拆解。但斌的十大“金句”，先睹为快：1.错失一个时代的风险，比天天担心风险的风险更大。2.对我们这一代中国老投资人来说，这很可能是不该失去的最后一个伟大时代。3.人工智能不可能是两三年就结束，它应该是个十年以上的周期。4.真正伟大的公司其实越涨越便宜。5.段永平先生说过一句话：如果他早点知道英伟达是这样情况，他应该把茅台换成英伟达。东方港湾其实是践行了他的这个想法。坦率说，他是企业家，我们是基金经理，我们更应该是战斗在一线的投资人，更应该敏锐洞察世界变化的方向选择。我觉得这个时代非常快、时间非常残酷，作为投资人，如果不迭代、不具有更敏锐的洞察力，很可能被时代淘汰。6.目前我们是在遇到系统性风险时才做风控，正常情况下基本满仓操作。7.我跟很多朋友交流，他们说要买我们的基金，我如果你海外有账户，就只买谷歌，因为你只买这一个可能赚得比我们多。对散户来说，最大优势是可以全力以赴，可能赚得更多。8.投资比的是思考的远见，比谁看得远、看得准、敢重仓、能坚持。你看得远、没看错，经过波折后它就会回来。金融资产最大的风险是你持有的底层资产出现重大问题。9.我对目前还坚守在白酒里的朋友表示敬意，因为这两年其他人都“吃香的喝辣的”，你们还在水深火热之中，确实如此。10.A股想有慢牛挺难的。对中国经济和中国企业来说，最关键的是让商业模式护城河足够深、足够宽，让利润保持长久增长，这才是慢牛的基础。我希望从新的开始，中国会有一个慢牛。01但斌：推荐朋友直接买谷歌但斌这两年另一个巨大的争议点，在于他投资美股，他认为这是为了给客户寻找更好的回报。在他看来，美国有很多原创的商业模式，一旦成功，它们赚的是全世界的钱，且拥有垄断优势，比如苹果一家就拿走了行业绝大部分利润；中国企业，无论是苹果链还是特斯拉链，如果只做国内循环，利润很难保证。同时，但斌也透露，他们有一部分仓位投资于A股这些产业链当中。当被问及为什么现在不再关注A股，而是转而去投资时，但斌回答：你这个也是错的，我们有30%的基金买不了美股，这些基金在A股和港股也有配置。他进一步解释，包括英伟达产业链、谷歌产业链，我们在A股也持有不少，只是因为基金比较多、分散，所以没有出现在十大股东里，你看纳指ETF，当年我们买了很多，也出现在过持仓榜单里。但斌表示，东方港湾这两年类似于资产管理公司出海，参与全球竞争。在这个环节，但斌甚至给出了一个建议。他透露，自己经常跟想买他基金的朋友说：“你不用买我的基金，如果你有海外账户，直接买谷歌就行了。”但斌解释道，对于散户来说，最大的优势是可以全力以赴，买谷歌这一个标的，可能赚得比基金还多，还省去了管理费。他表示：“如果你能找到那些伟大的公司——我一直认为投资是共享的事业，我也愿意分享——真正的好公司如果能涨100倍、1000倍甚至1万倍，一定是共赢的游戏：你看好我也看好，众人拾柴火焰高。对一般老百姓来说，辨别那些伟大公司并不困难。就像过去几十年，龙头白酒和互联网龙头这些公司，你看它好坏不需要太多知识；海外的英伟达、谷歌、苹果，需要很专业的知识吗？也不一定。你可以全力以赴，可以做得比专业机构、专家还好。所以对老百姓来说，只需要买那些王冠上的明珠去投资就行了。如果不行，就买ETF，比如标普ETF，或者看好人工智能就买A股的人工智能ETF等，我觉得都足够了。”但他同时给出了一个严厉警告：千万不能借钱、融资炒股票，这是大忌。他表示，东方港湾之所以能有“九条命”，因为没有融资，如果有融资，2008年、白酒危机、2022年、今年4月跌那么狠，都被干掉了；只要不借钱，买最好的公司或买ETF，想输钱也挺困难的。02但斌透露海外基金的两大持仓现在的但斌，言必称AI。在他看来，这不仅仅是一次技术升级，而是人类物种级别的进化。关于最近孙正义清仓英伟达买入OpenAI，但斌表示，这次操作，如果OpenAI估值能到1万亿，那他是对的。但在他看来，OpenAI、谷歌、Gemini之间的竞争变数很大，作为基金经理，他更喜欢确定性。但斌透露，东方港湾海外基金的第一大持仓是英伟达，第二是谷歌，像特斯拉这种不确定性较高的，仓位就没那么重。面对市场上关于“AI泡沫”的质疑，他的态度非常坚决，甚至带有一种“赌上职业生涯”的意味。他认为现在正处于类似1998年的前夜，而不是2000年的泡沫破裂期。对于孙正义那种激进的一级市场豪赌，但斌选择了更具确定性的“卖铲子”的人和拥有最深护城河的巨头。但斌不认为现在AI有泡沫，他说问问一线的企业家，排期都排到2027年了，根本没人觉得是泡沫，这是一个伟大的时代，软硬件是相辅相成的。但斌判断，现在不像2000年，更像1998年，人工智能不可能三年就结束，它至少是个十年的周期。同时他也提醒，错失一个时代的风险，比天天担心风险的风险更大，我们这一代投资人，这很可能是不该失去的最后一个伟大时代。但斌认为，如果几十亿年后人类还想生存，今天就是开始。当然，落地到现实，它可以攻克癌症，让人类活到120岁，甚至实现机器永生。它的意义既可以仰望星空，也可以落在脚下。他说：“从星系的角度看，地球终将不再适合生存，从碳基生命到硅基生命的历程中，人工智能可能是一个起点，也许人类只是过客，AI将帮助我们穿越银河系。”03告别白酒：并非不爱，而是时代变了？这是本次访谈中最让传统价值投资者感到“不适”的部分。曾经但斌是白酒价值投资最坚定的信徒，那句“时间的玫瑰”曾陪伴无数股民坚守，但现在他对白酒的增长表示悲观。但斌坦言，实际上他是践行了段永平的想法：“段永平先生说过一句话，如果他早点知道英伟达是这样情况，他应该把茅台换成英伟达。东方港湾其实是践行了他的这个想法。坦率说，他是企业家，我们是基金经理，我们更应该是战斗在一线的投资人，更应该敏锐洞察世界变化的方向选择。我觉得这个时代非常快、时间非常残酷，作为投资人，如果不迭代、不具有更敏锐的洞察力，很可能被时代淘汰。”对于白酒板块，但斌给出了较为争议的理由。他指出，当年买白酒是因为中国中产阶级崛起，但现在最大的变量是房地产。但斌表示，如果房价下跌30%-40%，老百姓绝大多数财富都在房子上，大家还有心情喝茅台吗。对于白酒，但斌更担忧的是长远的人口结构。他算了一笔账，按照现在的出生率，到2100年中国人口可能只有4亿，如果投资不考虑这种长远的人口断崖，一味坚持那逻辑就错了。对于依然坚守在白酒里的投资者，但斌的话虽然尖锐，但也透露出无奈。他直言，投资没有对错，我对目前还坚守在白酒里的朋友表示敬意，因为这两年其他人都“吃香的喝辣的”，你们还在水深火热之中，确实如此。他表示这不是为了安慰谁，只是有什么说什么，哪怕得罪朋友，说的也是内心话。04但斌坦言：A股慢牛不容易访谈的最后，在一片期待“牛市”的呼声中，但斌坦言：A股想有慢牛挺难的。他表示，历史规律就是“到目前为止，A股过去历史基本涨两年，跌四五年、三四年——比如2014、2015、2007、2008，再往前1999、2000年，基本涨两年，跌很长时间”，如果从这轮调整开始算，可能还要熬上一段时间。他指出过去美国市场200年，年化大概6.6%，从1美元变成103万，绝大部分收益来自于技术进步和企业内生的利润增长（包括回购和分红），只有极少部分来自估值提升。巴菲特非常感激“子宫论”，说他很庆幸生在美国。但这200年中，5%来自内生增长，4.8%来自分红或回购，只有0.7%来自估值变化。真正推动资本市场长期的力量，一是技术进步，二是内生利润增长。但斌强调，对中国经济和中国企业来说，最关键的是让商业模式护城河足够深、足够宽，让利润保持长久增长，这才是慢牛的基础。最后他表示，希望从新的开始，中国会有一个慢牛。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDU":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDA":1.92,"NVD":0.6,"GOOG":1.95,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"GOOGL":0.83,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/513521921290256"}
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