AaronHy
12-12
现在市场对于半导体 一点瑕疵就能无限放大 相比英伟达炸裂的财报都跌成这样 博通现在股价新高风险可想而知 预计本月股价回调到360附近。
博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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困惑者Silver
12-12
困惑者Silver
老哥请教下这波看空闪迪的逻辑是啥，最近感觉一点风吹草动就开始恐慌，而且今天按理说不是博通ai订单引起的恐慌么怎么美光闪迪西数这些存储大户跟着跌一堆 [捂脸]
困惑者Silver
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AaronHy
:
[抱拳] [抱拳]
AaronHy
:
主要还是市场想要调整半导体产业链 其次存储价格高 影响算力成本 行业会越来越不健康
想明白再上车
12-12
想明白再上车
还是得等等，你会看什么指标抄底呀，到价位吗
想明白再上车
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AaronHy
:
抄作业[龇牙]
AaronHy
:
看线 买量 还有期权的买量iv 还有财报和基本面的信息 现在还是要对每个票有个自己认为可以买入的价格吧 比如博通我就觉得360左右我会买 英伟达160左右 amd 180左右 英特尔36左右 特斯拉420左右等等
什么也没有了～
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(AVGO.O)本季度实现180亿美元，同比增长28.2%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）</strong>。环比增长20亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动<strong>。</strong></p><p>公司本季度毛利率68%，<strong>而在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑（-0.17pct）</strong>，主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。</p><p><strong>2.半导体业务</strong>：<strong>本季度实现110.7亿美元，环比增长19亿美元</strong>，其中AI业务贡献了主要增量。具体来看：</p><p><strong>①AI业务：65亿美元，环比增长13亿美元，好于市场预期（62亿美元）</strong>。公司的AI收入主要来自于三大客户（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和字节），季度增长主要来源于大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>TPUv6<span>出货</span>增加的带动。</p><p><strong>在三季度的财报后，谷歌、Meta等大厂又纷纷上调了资本开支展望，公司的AI业务增长有望继续提速，公司预期下季度AI业务收入82亿美元，环增提升至17亿美元</strong>。</p><p><strong>②非AI业务：46亿美元，同比增长1.3%，非AI业务的整体表现平稳</strong>。从各下游来看，本季度宽带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑。</p><p><strong>3.基础设施软件</strong>：本季度实现69.4亿美元，同比增长19%，主要是受VMware并购整合及收费模式调整的带动（从永久许可证模式全面转向于订阅模式）。<strong>软件业务未来将主要受益于VMware订阅模式的内生增长，但并购带来的高增长已经结束。</strong></p><p><strong>4.经营费用端</strong>：本季度核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）40.9亿美元，环比基本持平。在规模效应的影响下，核心经营费用率下降至22.7%左右。</p><p>在近两年的经营费用中，公司明显增加了股权激励等相关支出（当前股权激励占比将近一半）。若剔除股权激励的影响，公司本季度的核心经营费用为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元。</p><p><strong>5.VMware整合进展</strong>：海豚君引入了债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted <span>EBITDA</span>），经测算公司该指标在本季度进一步下降至2.1。该指标已经回到了收购前的水位，收购VMware对公司债务端的影响在两年内基本被消化。</p><p><strong>6.博通业绩指引</strong>：<strong>2026财年第一季度预期收入191亿美元左右，市场预期（185亿美元），公司预期2026财年第一季度的调整后EBITDA利润率为67%，其中AI业务有望继续增长至82亿美元。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101056607v206zq4r91z184n\"/><p><strong>海豚君整体观点：业绩超预期，AI订单浇凉水</strong></p><p>博通AVGO本季度收入和毛利率都达到了市场预期。其中营收增长，主要来自于<strong>AI业务的贡献</strong>；<strong>毛利率方面，在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，</strong>环比略有下滑，受毛利率较低的ASIC业务占比提升带来的结构性影响。</p><p>公司本季度的<strong>债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA）下滑至2.1，已经回到了收购前的水平，VMware的收购影响在两年内已经基本被消化</strong>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101059234v206qenxqi59e1t\"/><p><strong>在VMware收购基本消化，市场对博通AVGO在AI业务的进展更为关注：</strong></p><p><strong>a）大厂尤其是谷歌的资本开支：</strong>大型云服务商是博通AVGO定制ASIC芯片的最终“购买方”，大厂资本开支也将直接影响公司AI业务的预期。</p><p><strong>结合各家大厂情况，海豚君预计四大核心云厂商（谷歌、Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>）的合计资本开支在2026年有望接近6000亿美元左右，同比增长40%，这为明年AI 芯片市场需求的增长提供了保障。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101059812v206v22mikwmtqx\"/><p><strong>ｂ）AI业务收入及指引：</strong>本季度公司实现65亿美元的AI 收入，环比增长13亿美元。<strong>对于下季度AI收入，公司给出了82亿美元的指引，环比增长17亿美元，好于市场预期（70-75亿美元）</strong>。</p><p><strong>谷歌是公司当前AI业务的大客户，从AI收入与谷歌资本开支的变动关系来看，两者也是紧密相关的。</strong>谷歌在三季度后将全年的资本开支指引再度上调至910-930亿美元（此前为850亿美元），其中也包含了大量的TPU需求。</p><p><strong>展望明年，市场已经将谷歌下一年的资本开支预期上调到了1350-1400亿美元，这也为博通AVGO的AI收入在下一年的增长奠定了基础。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101110651v206rypzijr4bhr\"/><p><strong>c）“谷歌Gemini+博通”竞争力的提升：一方面谷歌近期开始量产的TPUv7在性能上已经超过了H200，部分指标也开始向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的B200产品靠近</strong>；<strong>另一方面谷歌自身的Gemini大模型表现并不逊色于依托英伟达的GPT表现</strong>。</p><p>这为市场带来了新的思路，<strong>AI大模型也从“纯拼算力的追逐”开始转向于“投入产出比”的考量</strong>，这无疑将给英伟达垄断地位带来直接的威胁。<strong>当前博通在AI芯片的份额占据一成左右，在TPUv7量产和“性价比”优势的带动下，市场也预期未来会逐步侵蚀英伟达的份额。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101119161v206sf5zb09bki5\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101122650v206zt1jsy6luq3\"/><p><strong>d）公司的客户及订单进展</strong>：当前的AI ASIC芯片已经有3家公司（<strong>谷歌</strong>、Meta、字节）产品实现量产，是公司AI收入的主要来源。<strong>公司也在上次交流中透露了第4个客户（Anthropic）已下达超100 亿美元AI相关订单，并将在明年三季度进行交付</strong>。</p><p>而进入10月，<strong>Open AI又宣布将与博通AVGO将在2026年至2029年的4年内合作部署10GW的巨额订单</strong>。如果这份订单能顺利落地，海豚君预估有望能带来1000-1500亿美元的收入体量。<strong>从公司的口径来看，在当前看来这更像是一个框架协议</strong>。</p><p>截至目前，<strong>博通AVGO明确披露的5个客户将是明年AI收入的主要来源。其中新增的第5个客户大约将在2026年贡献10亿美元的AI收入</strong>。</p><p><strong>结合博通AVGO当前市值（1.92万亿美元），对应公司2026财年税后核心经营利润大约为38倍PE左右（假定营收同比+50%，毛利率68.5%，税率8%）。参考同行情况，博通AVGO的估值明显高于英伟达（22xPE）和Marvell（30xPE），相对较高的估值中包含了市场对公司的定制ASIC产品抢占英伟达原有份额的期待</strong>。</p><p><strong>在公司披露了Anthropic以及Open AI的合作后，公司股价站上了350美元。之后的继续上涨并突破400美元，主要是受大厂上调资本开支、谷歌Gemini的优异表现等因素的推动</strong>。</p><p><strong>整体来看，海豚君认为公司当前股价中已经打入了此前新增的客户及订单、大厂资本开支上调后的预期。</strong>市场期待公司在财报后再次披露新增客户/订单情况，或者谷歌TPU能顺利开启外供（市场已经在传出Meta打算采购TPU），<strong>但公司却提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。</strong></p><p><strong>具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单（2026年底交付）、还有第五个客户的10亿美元（2026年底交付），那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。</strong></p><p><strong>而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。</strong></p><p><strong>博通AVGO本次的订单展望虽然是相对保守的，但还是会在短期内影响市场信心。而中长期角度看，海豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。</strong></p><p><strong>当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性，而英伟达的高毛利率/市场份额还是会受到来自“谷歌Gemimi+博通”的竞争压力。</strong></p><p>以下是详细分析</p><p><strong>一、博通主要业务情况</strong></p><p>博通此前的业绩增长主要来自于AI业务和VMware的收购并表，因而AI业务中的定制ASIC芯片和VMware的定价调整策略，是市场的最主要关注点。具体业务来看：</p><p><strong>1）半导体解决方案</strong>：主要受益于AI收入的增长，主要受益于谷歌、meta和字节跳动等客户对定制ASIC的需求。而其他非AI业务受下游需求影响较大，表现相对低迷。</p><p><strong>2）基础设施软件</strong>：VMware并表，软件收入占比接近4成。公司对VMware的客户进行定价策略调整，涨价能带动收入提升，而这一影响已经明显弱化。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101123646v206gqey347uzpa\"/><p><strong>二、整体业绩：AI推动稳步增长</strong></p><p><strong>2.1收入端</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现营收180亿美元，同比增长28%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。</strong>同比增长主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。</p><p><strong>环比层面，公司本季度收入环比增长20亿美元</strong>，其中AI业务贡献了13亿美元的增量，是最大增长来源；软件业务环比也有回升。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101134291v206ggxvg6c7mee\"/><p><strong>2.2<span>毛利</span>端</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现毛利122.5亿美元，同比增长36%。</strong>其中博通在本季度的毛利率为68%，环比回升。</p><p><strong>如果在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比下滑0.17pct</strong>，<strong>主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101138064v2061t4tk1x7672\"/><p><strong>2.3经营费用</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的经营费用为47.4亿美元，环比略有回落。</strong></p><p>在剔除股权激励的情况下，公司本季度的<strong>核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元</strong>。在完成VMware并表后，公司聚焦于对经营费用的削减基本完成。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101144553v2067nm1y3awg9d\"/><p><strong>2.4利润端</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现<span>净利润</span>85.2亿美元。</strong></p><p>相比于净利润，<strong>海豚君认为核心经营利润（=毛利润-研发费用-销售及管理费用）更能反应公司真实的经营情况。博通AVGO本季度实现核心经营利润97亿美元，环比增加16亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101145759v2067ewgh1ya7qs\"/><p><strong>2.5博通的EBITDA</strong></p><p>由于博通擅长外延并购，公司通常把调整后EBITDA%作为公司的经营面指标之一。<strong>而海豚君测算公司2025财年第四季度的调整后EBITDA%回升至67.8%，好于公司此前指引（67%）。</strong></p><p>进一步观察公司的偿债能力，<strong>公司本季度总<span>负债</span>/LTM Adjusted EBITDA的比值继续回落至2.1</strong>。在AI业绩增长的带动下，该比值已经回到了收购前的水平。这意味着公司收购VMware的影响在两年的时间里基本被消化，后续公司可能又会开始寻找新的并购机会。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101157122v2067zu92z9q5cw\"/><p><strong>三、各业务具体情况：AI环增提速，VMware整合完成</strong></p><p>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)的主要业务有半导体解决方案和基础设施软件两部分。随着公司对VMware收购并表的完成，公司基础设施软件业务的占比明显提升，当前软件业务收入占比接近40%左右。</p><p>而在两大类业务中具体包括，<strong>1）半导体解决方案</strong>：网络、无线、存储连接、宽带、工业及其他；<strong>2）基础设施软件</strong>：VMware、CA、Symantec、Brocade等。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101158774v206kruphtep8eg\"/><p><strong>3.1半导体解决方案</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的半导体解决方案实现营收110.7亿美元，同比增长34.5%。</strong>公司半导体业务本季度的增长主要来自于AI业务的带动，非AI业务保持平稳。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101205079v206mxeuepyn0wq\"/><p><strong>1）AI业务</strong></p><p><strong>当前AI业务是公司的业绩重心，公司本季度的AI收入65亿美元，环比增长为13亿美元，环增再次提速。</strong></p><p><strong>当前公司AI收入来自于三大客户（谷歌、Meta和字节），在谷歌、Meta等大厂陆续上调资本开支的影响下，公司AI收入增长将再次提速。公司预计下季度AI收入82亿美元，环增17亿美元。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101205718v206vu32g948fc4\"/><p><strong>博通的ASIC业务当前明确宣布的有5个客户，分别是谷歌、Meta、字节、Anthropic、第五个客户（10亿美元），都将在明年为公司的AI业务贡献收入。至于Open AI与公司签订的10GW订单，虽然这有望给公司带来1000-1500亿美元的增量，但目前来看更像是一个框架协议。</strong></p><p>对于AI业务中短期的表现，仍关注于当前三个客户的产品表现，尤其是谷歌TPUv6及TPU v7的量产情况。<strong>至于Anthropic和第五个客户（10亿美元）的订单，都将在明年下半年才进行交付，因而公司明年AI业务将呈现出“前低后高”表现</strong>。</p><p><strong>另外，公司提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这无疑在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。</strong></p><p><strong>具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单、还有第五个客户的10亿美元，那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。</strong></p><p><strong>而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。</strong></p><p>从中长期角度看，海<strong>豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机</strong>，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性<strong>。</strong></p><p><strong>当谷歌TPU开始扩大对外交付，也能进一步提升博通AVGO在AI芯片市场的竞争力，从英伟达手中抢下更多的市场份额。</strong></p><p><strong>2）非AI业务</strong></p><p><strong>公司本季度非AI的半导体业务收入为46亿美元，同比增长1.3%</strong>，保持平稳。</p><p>公司的非AI业务主要包括：企业存储、宽带业务、无线业务和工业及其他。具体来看：带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑<strong>。</strong></p><p><strong>3.2基础设施软件</strong></p><p><strong>博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的基础设施软件实现营收69.4亿美元，同比增长19%。</strong>增长主要来自于VMware的并购整合和收费模式调整（从永久许可证模式全面转向于订阅模式）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251212101207245v206xo01r60mjw0\"/><p>博通的软件业务主要分为VMware和CA&Symantec&Brocade等原软件业务两部分。由于公司的CA&Symantec&Brocade等原软件业务基本维持在20亿美元左右的季度收入，<strong>因而公司软件业务的主要看点是收购进来的VMware</strong>。</p><p><strong>VMware对公司业绩的影响，海豚君认为主要是两方面：“并购在财务上的消化进展”和“永久许可证全面转向订阅模式”。而结合本季度软件业务的表现，海豚君预期VMware部分本季度实现收入约有47亿美元。</strong></p><p>而当前许可证用户转向订阅模式的比例，已经超过60%。随着订阅模式渗透率的提升，VMware和软件业务收入仍有望增长，但很难有类似于并购整合的高增长。</p><p><strong>结合当前债务偿还指标下降至2.1，VMware的收购基本已经被公司消化，公司也不再单独披露VMware细分数据，AI业务是公司最主要的关注点。</strong></p><p><此处结束></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n博通AVGO：叫板英伟达，结果先锋自己先怂了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-12 09:44 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251212101212a443a3fe&s=b><strong>海豚研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>博通 (AVGO.O）北京时间12月12日凌晨，美股盘后发布2025财年第四季度财报（截至2025年10月）：1.整体业绩：博通 (AVGO.O)本季度实现180亿美元，同比增长28.2%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。环比增长20亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。公司本季度毛利率68%，而在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑（-0.17pct），...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251212101212a443a3fe&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2764263203.CNY":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (CNYHDG) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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(AVGO.O)本季度实现180亿美元，同比增长28.2%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。环比增长20亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。公司本季度毛利率68%，而在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑（-0.17pct），主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。2.半导体业务：本季度实现110.7亿美元，环比增长19亿美元，其中AI业务贡献了主要增量。具体来看：①AI业务：65亿美元，环比增长13亿美元，好于市场预期（62亿美元）。公司的AI收入主要来自于三大客户（谷歌、Meta和字节），季度增长主要来源于大客户谷歌TPUv6出货增加的带动。在三季度的财报后，谷歌、Meta等大厂又纷纷上调了资本开支展望，公司的AI业务增长有望继续提速，公司预期下季度AI业务收入82亿美元，环增提升至17亿美元。②非AI业务：46亿美元，同比增长1.3%，非AI业务的整体表现平稳。从各下游来看，本季度宽带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑。3.基础设施软件：本季度实现69.4亿美元，同比增长19%，主要是受VMware并购整合及收费模式调整的带动（从永久许可证模式全面转向于订阅模式）。软件业务未来将主要受益于VMware订阅模式的内生增长，但并购带来的高增长已经结束。4.经营费用端：本季度核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）40.9亿美元，环比基本持平。在规模效应的影响下，核心经营费用率下降至22.7%左右。在近两年的经营费用中，公司明显增加了股权激励等相关支出（当前股权激励占比将近一半）。若剔除股权激励的影响，公司本季度的核心经营费用为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元。5.VMware整合进展：海豚君引入了债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA），经测算公司该指标在本季度进一步下降至2.1。该指标已经回到了收购前的水位，收购VMware对公司债务端的影响在两年内基本被消化。6.博通业绩指引：2026财年第一季度预期收入191亿美元左右，市场预期（185亿美元），公司预期2026财年第一季度的调整后EBITDA利润率为67%，其中AI业务有望继续增长至82亿美元。海豚君整体观点：业绩超预期，AI订单浇凉水博通AVGO本季度收入和毛利率都达到了市场预期。其中营收增长，主要来自于AI业务的贡献；毛利率方面，在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比略有下滑，受毛利率较低的ASIC业务占比提升带来的结构性影响。公司本季度的债务偿还指标（Total Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA）下滑至2.1，已经回到了收购前的水平，VMware的收购影响在两年内已经基本被消化。在VMware收购基本消化，市场对博通AVGO在AI业务的进展更为关注：a）大厂尤其是谷歌的资本开支：大型云服务商是博通AVGO定制ASIC芯片的最终“购买方”，大厂资本开支也将直接影响公司AI业务的预期。结合各家大厂情况，海豚君预计四大核心云厂商（谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊）的合计资本开支在2026年有望接近6000亿美元左右，同比增长40%，这为明年AI 芯片市场需求的增长提供了保障。ｂ）AI业务收入及指引：本季度公司实现65亿美元的AI 收入，环比增长13亿美元。对于下季度AI收入，公司给出了82亿美元的指引，环比增长17亿美元，好于市场预期（70-75亿美元）。谷歌是公司当前AI业务的大客户，从AI收入与谷歌资本开支的变动关系来看，两者也是紧密相关的。谷歌在三季度后将全年的资本开支指引再度上调至910-930亿美元（此前为850亿美元），其中也包含了大量的TPU需求。展望明年，市场已经将谷歌下一年的资本开支预期上调到了1350-1400亿美元，这也为博通AVGO的AI收入在下一年的增长奠定了基础。c）“谷歌Gemini+博通”竞争力的提升：一方面谷歌近期开始量产的TPUv7在性能上已经超过了H200，部分指标也开始向英伟达的B200产品靠近；另一方面谷歌自身的Gemini大模型表现并不逊色于依托英伟达的GPT表现。这为市场带来了新的思路，AI大模型也从“纯拼算力的追逐”开始转向于“投入产出比”的考量，这无疑将给英伟达垄断地位带来直接的威胁。当前博通在AI芯片的份额占据一成左右，在TPUv7量产和“性价比”优势的带动下，市场也预期未来会逐步侵蚀英伟达的份额。d）公司的客户及订单进展：当前的AI ASIC芯片已经有3家公司（谷歌、Meta、字节）产品实现量产，是公司AI收入的主要来源。公司也在上次交流中透露了第4个客户（Anthropic）已下达超100 亿美元AI相关订单，并将在明年三季度进行交付。而进入10月，Open AI又宣布将与博通AVGO将在2026年至2029年的4年内合作部署10GW的巨额订单。如果这份订单能顺利落地，海豚君预估有望能带来1000-1500亿美元的收入体量。从公司的口径来看，在当前看来这更像是一个框架协议。截至目前，博通AVGO明确披露的5个客户将是明年AI收入的主要来源。其中新增的第5个客户大约将在2026年贡献10亿美元的AI收入。结合博通AVGO当前市值（1.92万亿美元），对应公司2026财年税后核心经营利润大约为38倍PE左右（假定营收同比+50%，毛利率68.5%，税率8%）。参考同行情况，博通AVGO的估值明显高于英伟达（22xPE）和Marvell（30xPE），相对较高的估值中包含了市场对公司的定制ASIC产品抢占英伟达原有份额的期待。在公司披露了Anthropic以及Open AI的合作后，公司股价站上了350美元。之后的继续上涨并突破400美元，主要是受大厂上调资本开支、谷歌Gemini的优异表现等因素的推动。整体来看，海豚君认为公司当前股价中已经打入了此前新增的客户及订单、大厂资本开支上调后的预期。市场期待公司在财报后再次披露新增客户/订单情况，或者谷歌TPU能顺利开启外供（市场已经在传出Meta打算采购TPU），但公司却提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单（2026年底交付）、还有第五个客户的10亿美元（2026年底交付），那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。博通AVGO本次的订单展望虽然是相对保守的，但还是会在短期内影响市场信心。而中长期角度看，海豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性，而英伟达的高毛利率/市场份额还是会受到来自“谷歌Gemimi+博通”的竞争压力。以下是详细分析一、博通主要业务情况博通此前的业绩增长主要来自于AI业务和VMware的收购并表，因而AI业务中的定制ASIC芯片和VMware的定价调整策略，是市场的最主要关注点。具体业务来看：1）半导体解决方案：主要受益于AI收入的增长，主要受益于谷歌、meta和字节跳动等客户对定制ASIC的需求。而其他非AI业务受下游需求影响较大，表现相对低迷。2）基础设施软件：VMware并表，软件收入占比接近4成。公司对VMware的客户进行定价策略调整，涨价能带动收入提升，而这一影响已经明显弱化。二、整体业绩：AI推动稳步增长2.1收入端博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现营收180亿美元，同比增长28%，好于市场预期（175亿美元）。同比增长主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。环比层面，公司本季度收入环比增长20亿美元，其中AI业务贡献了13亿美元的增量，是最大增长来源；软件业务环比也有回升。2.2毛利端博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现毛利122.5亿美元，同比增长36%。其中博通在本季度的毛利率为68%，环比回升。如果在剔除收购摊销和重组费用影响后，本季度实际经营面的毛利率为76.6%，环比下滑0.17pct，主要是因为定制ASIC业务毛利率相对偏低，而随着占比提升带来了结构性影响。2.3经营费用博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的经营费用为47.4亿美元，环比略有回落。在剔除股权激励的情况下，公司本季度的核心经营费用（研发费用+销售及管理费用）为21.3亿美元，环比增加0.8亿美元。在完成VMware并表后，公司聚焦于对经营费用的削减基本完成。2.4利润端博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度实现净利润85.2亿美元。相比于净利润，海豚君认为核心经营利润（=毛利润-研发费用-销售及管理费用）更能反应公司真实的经营情况。博通AVGO本季度实现核心经营利润97亿美元，环比增加16亿美元，主要来自于AI业务增长的带动。2.5博通的EBITDA由于博通擅长外延并购，公司通常把调整后EBITDA%作为公司的经营面指标之一。而海豚君测算公司2025财年第四季度的调整后EBITDA%回升至67.8%，好于公司此前指引（67%）。进一步观察公司的偿债能力，公司本季度总负债/LTM Adjusted EBITDA的比值继续回落至2.1。在AI业绩增长的带动下，该比值已经回到了收购前的水平。这意味着公司收购VMware的影响在两年的时间里基本被消化，后续公司可能又会开始寻找新的并购机会。三、各业务具体情况：AI环增提速，VMware整合完成博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)的主要业务有半导体解决方案和基础设施软件两部分。随着公司对VMware收购并表的完成，公司基础设施软件业务的占比明显提升，当前软件业务收入占比接近40%左右。而在两大类业务中具体包括，1）半导体解决方案：网络、无线、存储连接、宽带、工业及其他；2）基础设施软件：VMware、CA、Symantec、Brocade等。3.1半导体解决方案博通BROADCOM (AVGO.O)在2025财年第四季度的半导体解决方案实现营收110.7亿美元，同比增长34.5%。公司半导体业务本季度的增长主要来自于AI业务的带动，非AI业务保持平稳。1）AI业务当前AI业务是公司的业绩重心，公司本季度的AI收入65亿美元，环比增长为13亿美元，环增再次提速。当前公司AI收入来自于三大客户（谷歌、Meta和字节），在谷歌、Meta等大厂陆续上调资本开支的影响下，公司AI收入增长将再次提速。公司预计下季度AI收入82亿美元，环增17亿美元。博通的ASIC业务当前明确宣布的有5个客户，分别是谷歌、Meta、字节、Anthropic、第五个客户（10亿美元），都将在明年为公司的AI业务贡献收入。至于Open AI与公司签订的10GW订单，虽然这有望给公司带来1000-1500亿美元的增量，但目前来看更像是一个框架协议。对于AI业务中短期的表现，仍关注于当前三个客户的产品表现，尤其是谷歌TPUv6及TPU v7的量产情况。至于Anthropic和第五个客户（10亿美元）的订单，都将在明年下半年才进行交付，因而公司明年AI业务将呈现出“前低后高”表现。另外，公司提到了“目前积压了730亿美元AI订单，并将在未来6个季度实现交付”，这无疑在短期内给市场浇了盆凉水。具体来看，根据公司上季度提到Anthropic的100亿美元订单以及本季度追加的110亿美元订单、还有第五个客户的10亿美元，那730亿的订单就剩下了510亿（6个季度），对应谷歌等原有客户的平均单季度收入仅为85亿美元。而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，而公司下季度AI收入指引已经达到82亿美元，那就意味着谷歌自身的量之后5个季度看起来都不太增长。从中长期角度看，海豚君认为外部客户还是会有采购谷歌TPU的动机，这既能弥补当前算力供给端的不足，也能成为对英伟达“压价”的筹码。当前的AI芯片格局之下，博通AVGO凭借“性价比”优势依然有望企稳向上，后续存在上调AI业务展望的潜在可能性。当谷歌TPU开始扩大对外交付，也能进一步提升博通AVGO在AI芯片市场的竞争力，从英伟达手中抢下更多的市场份额。2）非AI业务公司本季度非AI的半导体业务收入为46亿美元，同比增长1.3%，保持平稳。公司的非AI业务主要包括：企业存储、宽带业务、无线业务和工业及其他。具体来看：带业务实现稳健复苏，无线业务持平，而由于企业支出持续呈现有限复苏迹象，其他所有终端市场均出现下滑。3.2基础设施软件博通BROADCOM 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