l6668888
2025-12-11
降低了成本 是好事
不装了，偷师国产 AI 模型，Meta 加班裁员两手抓，救命稻草“牛油果”还闭源了
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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TBD Lab 负责研发，原计划在 2025 年底发布这个模型，但目前时间已经推迟到 2026 年第一季度。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102745483d152fa9gm9qvtp0\"/><p>更重要的是，Avocado 最终可能采用闭源方式，这意味着开发者将无法自由下载其参数和相关软件组件。</p><p>更有意思的是，据彭博社援引知情人士消息称，Meta 旗下的 TBD 团队在训练 Avocado 模型的过程中，使用了多个第三方模型进行蒸馏学习。其中包括 Google 的 Gemma、OpenAI 的 gpt-oss 以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>的 Qwen 模型。</p><p>这种做法本身并不罕见，通过蒸馏学习从强大的模型中提取知识是 AI 领域的常见技术。但对于曾经高调宣扬开源、试图建立自己 AI 生态的 Meta 来说，如今转而借鉴竞争对手的模型，多少有点打脸的意味。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102803523d152qmyht1zxzdq\"/><p>Meta 发言人对此的回应相当官方，称模型训练工作按计划进行，目前没有重大时间变动。</p><p>但业内人士心里都明白，这个项目关系到 Meta 能否在 AI 竞赛中追上 OpenAI、Google 和 Anthropic。如果 Avocado 扑街，Meta 在 AI 领域可能就真的要被甩出第一梯队了。</p><p>实际上，在 Avocado 尚未面世之前，Meta 在产品端已经遭遇了一次惨败。</p><p>今年 9 月匆忙上线的 AI 短视频平台 Vibes，被寄予厚望要对标 OpenAI 的 Sora 2，结果却惨遭市场打脸。Appfigures 数据显示，Meta AI 在 iOS 免费应用排行榜上仅位列第 97 名，而 Sora 2 则高居第 3，并逐步攀升。</p><img src=\"https://s3.ifanr.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/53.png!720\"/><p>虽然 Sora 最近也被传出用户黏度下降的情况，但当两款产品几乎同时发布，Vibes 非但没能成为话题爆款，反而被 Sora 2 压着打。很多人甚至不知道 Meta 新发布了这个产品。</p><p>多位前员工和内容创作者告诉 CNBC，Vibes 仓促上线，缺乏如逼真对口音频等关键功能。</p><p>前 GitHub CEO Nat Friedman 主导了这个项目，现在他正面临巨大压力，被要求尽快推出真正的爆款 AI 产品。知情人士称，Meta 多个 AI 团队都在承压，70 小时工作周成为常态，同时全年进行了多轮裁员与重组。</p><p>这种节奏，像极了一家被逼到墙角的初创公司，而不是市值万亿的科技巨头。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102838995d152cp41gq6mhow\"/><p><strong>从 AI 赢家到被质疑，不过一年时间</strong></p><p>今年是 Meta AI 的坎儿年。</p><p>去年九月，意气风发的扎克伯格还站在 Meta Connect 的舞台上，信心满满地宣称 Llama 将成为业内最先进的 AI 模型，让所有人都能受益于人工智能。</p><p>那时的他，像极了一个布道者，向世界传递着开源 AI 的福音。</p><p>然而仅仅一年后，风向就变了。到了两个月前的财报电话会议上，扎克伯格对 Llama 的提及只剩下了一次。那个曾经被当作 Meta AI 战略核心的开源模型，正在悄悄让位给 Avocado 这个神秘项目。</p><p>这个转变背后，是 Meta 在 AI 竞赛中越来越明显的焦虑。</p><p>当 OpenAI 的 GPT 系列、Google 的 Gemini、Anthropic 的 Claude 接连发布重磅更新时，Meta 发现自己似乎被甩在了身后。尤其是，Google 在 AI 领域的投入正逐渐显现成效，而 Meta 却陷入了方向不明的泥潭。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102840873d1524b5g3pqb5s6\"/><p>为此，扎克伯格的应对方式简单粗暴，砸钱挖人。</p><p>今年 7月份，Meta 宣布成立超级智能实验室 MSL，将公司所有 AI 业务重组到这个新部门之下。紧接着，一场硅谷 AI 人才的扫货大战拉开帷幕。</p><p>最引人注目的一笔交易发生在同月，Meta 以 143 亿美元的天价引入了 Scale AI 的 28 岁创始人 Alexandr Wang 及其团队。</p><p>虽然 Wang 不是工程师，但被认为是业内最具人脉的AI创业者之一。</p><p>随后，扎克伯格和 Wang 展开疯狂招人，争抢顶级 AI 研究员，开出高达数亿美元的薪酬。据 OpenAI 首席研究官 Mark Chen 称，扎克伯格甚至亲自送自制的汤到 OpenAI 员工家门口，劝他们跳槽到 Meta。</p><p>Wang 被任命为 Meta 首席 AI 官，领导一个叫 TBD Lab 的精英小组。这个名字本身就很有意思，TBD 是“to be determined”的缩写，意思是待定。最初只是个临时代号，但因为太贴切了反而保留了下来，某种程度上也反映出 Meta AI 战略的探索性质。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102844741d152kuyfqwlxh70\"/><p>除了 Wang，Meta 还挖来了前 GitHub CEO Nat Friedman，让他负责 MSL 的产品与应用研究，以及 ChatGPT 联合创始人赵晟佳。</p><p>这些重金引入的大佬带来了硅谷前沿 AI 研发的标准流程，彻底改变了 Meta 传统的软件开发文化。然而改变的代价是巨大的。</p><p>仅仅四个月后，Meta 就将 2025 年的资本支出预期从 660 亿至 720 亿美元调升至 700 亿至 720 亿美元。投资者开始担心，这么烧钱到底值不值。</p><p>质疑声四起，Avocado 将成为挽救声量的最后一道保障。<strong>开源？闭源！Llama 4 失败成为转折点</strong></p><p>Avocado 转向闭源并非无迹可寻。</p><p>报道中提到，Llama 4 在发布后未能吸引足够的开发者关注，同时基准测试分数“作弊”的行为使其备受诟病，进而也让扎克伯格开始重新思考开源战略。</p><p>据称，扎克伯格对 Llama 4 系列超大模型 Behemoth 的发展方向感到失望，最终放弃了该项目，转而寻求新的路径。</p><p>此外，扎克伯格在 7 月的一次表态中透露了这种转变的苗头。他说，我们需要严谨地控制风险，并谨慎选择开源内容。这与他此前在博文中“开源正迅速缩小与闭源的差距”的豪言壮语形成了鲜明对比。</p><p>MSL 新成立的超级智能实验室领导层对开源策略也提出质疑，他们更倾向于打造强大的闭源 AI 模型。虽然 Meta 官方一再表示其对开源 AI 的立场没有改变，但内部的风向显然已经转了。</p><p>Llama 4 的失败成为扎克伯格战略转向的关键节点，也引发了内部重大人事调整。</p><p>据知情人士透露，Meta 首席产品官 Chris Cox 在 Llama 4 失利后被调离原 AI 部门 GenAI，不再主管 AI 业务。这位在 Meta 工作多年的老将就这样从 AI 战略的核心圈子里出局了。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102847388d152q5mn3w5hozf\"/><p>随后，扎克伯格开启了 AI 人才的扫货模式。</p><p>28 岁的 Alexandr Wang 被任命为首席 AI 官，领导 TBD Lab 这个精英团队。Avocado 正是在这个团队中研发的。</p><p>整个 MSL 的组织架构被拆分成四个主要部分。</p><p>TBD Lab 由 Alexandr Wang 领导，专注于 Meta 下一代大型语言模型研发，被视为 MSL 内部的“旗舰”团队。FAIR 基础 AI 研究团队是 Meta 原有的人工智能基础研究部门，专注长期前沿研究，在 MSL 重组中被纳入新架构。</p><p>产品及应用研究团队 PAR 由 Nat Friedman 领导，负责将 AI 技术整合到产品和消费应用中，定位为 AI 产品化和应用落地的桥梁。</p><p>MSL 基础设施团队则由 Meta 工程副总裁 Aparna Ramani 领导，负责支撑 AI 模型的大规模计算基础设施建设，确保 Meta 拥有足够的数据中心、GPU 算力和工程工具。</p><p>科研模式上，TBD Lab 主打一个“小而精”，整个团队只有几十名顶尖研究人员和工程师。Meta 首席财务官强调，这是一个高度人才密集的小团队，被设计为在一到两年内将 AI 模型推向前沿水平。</p><p>这个团队就坐在扎克伯格办公室附近，但运作方式却像一家独立的初创公司。</p><p>他们甚至不使用 Meta 内部的社交平台 Workplace，保持着高度的独立性。团队文化鼓励工程师快速构建原型并推动模型能力极限，采取“成果导向”的轻流程方式，偏重演示和实做，而非冗长的文档流程。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102850653d152haqbcbg3waw\"/><p>Nat Friedman 在 10 月的 Masters of Scale 峰会上透露了这种文化转变。</p><p>他说，Meta 现在的新口号是“要演示，不要写文档”。这种硅谷<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>的做派与 Meta 以往多个部门协调、确保数十亿用户应用一致性的传统开发流程形成了鲜明对比。</p><p>然而这种转变也带来了文化冲击。</p><p>知情人士称，Wang 和 Friedman 的管理风格较为封闭，与 Meta 过往“工作公开透明”的文化形成鲜明反差。这两位新任高管是基础设施专家，而非消费者应用专家，他们带来的不仅是新的开发方式，还有完全不同的工作文化。</p><p>据《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>》报道，在今年秋季的一些会议中，Wang 私下表示，他与扎克伯格的一些老将，比如首席产品官 Chris Cox 和首席技术官 Andrew Bosworth，在一些问题上意见不合。</p><img src=\"https://s3.ifanr.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/62-2.png!720\"/><p>分歧的焦点在于 AI 模型的发展方向。</p><p>Cox 和 Bosworth 希望 Wang 的团队专注于利用 Instagram 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a> 的数据来训练 Meta 的新基础 AI 模型，以提升社交媒体信息流和广告业务。但正在开发 Avocado 的 Wang 却拒绝了这一建议。</p><p>据称他认为，团队的首要目标应该是追赶 OpenAI 和 Google 的 AI 模型，而不是过早地专注于实际产品。</p><p>这种分歧反映出 Meta 新 AI 团队与公司其他高层之间日益显著的对立氛围。根据多位现任和前任员工的说法，TBD Lab 的研究人员认为，Meta 的许多高管只关心如何改进社交媒体业务，而他们的目标是打造一种类似“神”的超级智能。</p><p>在最近一次会议中，Cox 曾询问 Wang 是否可以像 Google 利用 YouTube 数据训练 AI 模型一样，使用 Instagram 数据来训练 Meta 的 AI，以优化推荐算法。</p><p>但 Wang 回应说，将具体业务需求纳入训练过程会拖慢打造超级智能的进度。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102908003d152uhnw5bu4tqf\"/><p>之后他还私下抱怨称，Cox 过于专注改进自己负责的产品，而忽视了前沿 AI 模型的开发。是否最终三人达成一致，目前尚不清楚。</p><p>矛盾不仅体现在战略分歧上，还涉及到真金白银的资源分配。</p><p>据两位知情人士透露，Bosworth 近日被要求从他负责的虚拟现实与增强现实部门 Reality Labs 明年的预算中削减 20 亿美元，这笔钱被转移到了 Wang 团队的预算中。</p><p>此外，Meta 内部也有人对计算资源的分配产生争议。</p><p>到了秋天，一些负责 Instagram 和 Facebook 内容算法的员工提出异议，认为数据中心的算力应优先用于改进推荐算法，而不是训练 AI 模型。他们指出推荐算法能直接带来收益，而 AI 模型目前还没有赚钱。</p><p>对于报道中提到的 Wang 与 Cox、Bosworth 之间的矛盾和 20 亿美元的预算，Meta 发言人 Dave Arnold 在一份声明中予以否认。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102924945d1523ckrurfpqp5\"/><p>与此同时，扎克伯格也并未完全放权。</p><p>Aparna Ramani 在 Meta 任职近十年，被指定负责分配 MSL 的计算资源，显然是扎克伯格安插的“自己人”。此外，Meta 还调任</p><p>Vishal Shah 为 AI 产品副总裁，与 Friedman 合作。Shah 曾是 Reality Labs 负责人，被视为扎克伯格的忠实执行者。</p><p>这种权力平衡的微妙设计，在 10 月迎来了一次大规模调整。</p><p>Meta 宣布将在 MSL 部门裁减约 600 个岗位，具体受影响的团队包括原 FAIR 基础研究组、部分产品型 AI 团队，以及 AI 基础架构团队。而新成立的 TBD Lab 不受此次裁员影响，这表明 Meta 对这个核心研发团队寄予厚望。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102931971d152wmvjuynetri\"/><p>据 Axios 报道，MSL 裁员消息在 10 月 22 日由 Alexandr Wang 通知员工。Wang 在内部备忘录中强调，精简团队有助于加快决策、提高每位成员的责任范围和影响力。他暗示过去团队人头过多、汇报链条过长，反而降低了执行效率。</p><p>根据 Meta 的说明，此次裁员旨在使 AI 团队“更加灵活和响应迅速”。</p><p>这次裁员并非出于财务困境，而更像是战略重组的一部分。FAIR 团队作为长期研究部门，一些纯学术项目可能难见短期产出，被视为与当前“提速赶超”的战略不符，因此成为裁撤重点。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102938525d152b14pycrfcpm\"/><p>更微妙的是，这次裁员的时机加速了图灵奖得主、Meta 首席 AI 科学家 Yann LeCun 的离职出走，并顺势而为地创办初创公司。</p><p>LeCun 是 FAIR 的联合创始人之一，他的离开加上此前一些研究员出走，已经给 FAIR 团队带来了士气波动。Meta 干脆借此机会重组团队，将旧 FAIR 人员和项目裁撤或并入新的产品线。</p><p>裁员释放出这样的信息，Meta 将不再无限供养长期研究，而要全力以赴追求短期成果。这对尚留 Meta 的研究人员更是一种震慑和鞭策。<strong>基础设施转型，押注超级数据中心</strong></p><p>在继续开发 Avocado 的同时，Meta 也在改变其基础设施建设策略。</p><p>知情人士称，公司正更多依赖第三方云计算服务，如 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a> 和 Oracle，来开发和测试 AI 功能。这是一个有意思的转变，Meta 曾经以自建数据中心著称，但在 AI 时代，快速获取算力的重要性超过了一切。</p><p>与此同时，Meta 也在建设自己的大型数据中心。</p><p>10 月，Meta 宣布与 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDE\">Blue Owl</a> Capital 成立合资企业，共同投资 270 亿美元在路易斯安那州 Richland Parish 建设超大型 Hyperion 数据中心。Meta 表示，这项合作为其“实现长期 AI 愿景”提供了“速度和灵活性”。</p><p>值得注意的是，这笔 270 亿美元的融资协议宣布的时间，恰好就在 MSL 裁员 600 人的同一周。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102942198d152mbi1jybpfii\"/><p>这显然不是巧合。</p><p>Meta 在缩减人力的同时，通过外部资金来确保硬件投入不减，以支撑其大模型计算需求。从人员和财务两方面为 Meta AI 业务“减负”，让 MSL 可以轻装上阵。</p><p>此外，Meta 还在产品中测试其他 AI 模型。例如，Vibes 使用了 Black Forest Labs 和 Midjourney 提供的模型，后者 Friedman 担任顾问。</p><p>这说明 Meta 并不排斥使用第三方模型，只要能快速推出产品。</p><p>尽管 AI 战略陷入混乱，Meta 的核心业务数字广告依然稳健。年度营收超过 1600 亿美元，广告营收仍以每年超 20% 的速度增长，这得益于 AI 优化和 Instagram 的持续走热。</p><p>投资者也认可 Meta 通过 AI 提升效率、精简结构的做法。Meta 股价虽然在 2025 年表现不佳，远落后于 Google 母公司 Alphabet，但整体还算健康。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251211102948709d152m0bqh9nss0y\"/><p>当然，扎克伯格的野心不止于此。扎克伯格曾表示，如果 Meta 不大胆投入，就有可能在未来 AI 主导的世界中被边缘化。</p><p>Meta 上周也被传出风声，将削减虚拟现实和元宇宙相关投入，转向更加受欢迎的 AI 智能眼镜产品。这个产品由 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESLOF\">EssilorLuxottica</a> 与 Meta 联合开发，算是少数几个看得见摸得着的 AI 落地应用。</p><p>这是一个赌注。扎克伯格试图用赚钱的广告业务补贴烧钱的 AI 研发，希望在未来的 AI 时代占据一席之地。</p><p>至于能否成功，以及 Avocado 能否在 2026 年第一季度如期发布并引起市场轰动，都将决定扎克伯格这场豪赌的成败。</p><p>现在的 Meta AI 就像一个站在悬崖边的赌徒，手里攥着最后一把筹码，眼神里全是疯狂。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不装了，偷师国产 AI 模型，Meta 加班裁员两手抓，救命稻草“牛油果”还闭源了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不装了，偷师国产 AI 模型，Meta 加班裁员两手抓，救命稻草“牛油果”还闭源了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-11 10:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512111029509536c779&s=b><strong>爱范儿</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个叫 Avocado（牛油果）的神秘项目，正在 Meta 内部紧张推进。虽然项目名字听起来像是什么新款沙拉或者健康食品，但这其实是 Meta 押上全部身家要做的下一代 AI 模型。据 CNBC 报道，Avocado 由 Meta 新任首席 AI 官、28 岁的 Alexandr Wang 领导的 TBD Lab 负责研发，原计划在 2025 年底发布这个模型，但目前时间已经推迟到 2026 年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512111029509536c779&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1699723380.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"AP\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) 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HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512111029509536c779&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2590568054","content_text":"一个叫 Avocado（牛油果）的神秘项目，正在 Meta 内部紧张推进。虽然项目名字听起来像是什么新款沙拉或者健康食品，但这其实是 Meta 押上全部身家要做的下一代 AI 模型。据 CNBC 报道，Avocado 由 Meta 新任首席 AI 官、28 岁的 Alexandr Wang 领导的 TBD Lab 负责研发，原计划在 2025 年底发布这个模型，但目前时间已经推迟到 2026 年第一季度。更重要的是，Avocado 最终可能采用闭源方式，这意味着开发者将无法自由下载其参数和相关软件组件。更有意思的是，据彭博社援引知情人士消息称，Meta 旗下的 TBD 团队在训练 Avocado 模型的过程中，使用了多个第三方模型进行蒸馏学习。其中包括 Google 的 Gemma、OpenAI 的 gpt-oss 以及阿里的 Qwen 模型。这种做法本身并不罕见，通过蒸馏学习从强大的模型中提取知识是 AI 领域的常见技术。但对于曾经高调宣扬开源、试图建立自己 AI 生态的 Meta 来说，如今转而借鉴竞争对手的模型，多少有点打脸的意味。Meta 发言人对此的回应相当官方，称模型训练工作按计划进行，目前没有重大时间变动。但业内人士心里都明白，这个项目关系到 Meta 能否在 AI 竞赛中追上 OpenAI、Google 和 Anthropic。如果 Avocado 扑街，Meta 在 AI 领域可能就真的要被甩出第一梯队了。实际上，在 Avocado 尚未面世之前，Meta 在产品端已经遭遇了一次惨败。今年 9 月匆忙上线的 AI 短视频平台 Vibes，被寄予厚望要对标 OpenAI 的 Sora 2，结果却惨遭市场打脸。Appfigures 数据显示，Meta AI 在 iOS 免费应用排行榜上仅位列第 97 名，而 Sora 2 则高居第 3，并逐步攀升。虽然 Sora 最近也被传出用户黏度下降的情况，但当两款产品几乎同时发布，Vibes 非但没能成为话题爆款，反而被 Sora 2 压着打。很多人甚至不知道 Meta 新发布了这个产品。多位前员工和内容创作者告诉 CNBC，Vibes 仓促上线，缺乏如逼真对口音频等关键功能。前 GitHub CEO Nat Friedman 主导了这个项目，现在他正面临巨大压力，被要求尽快推出真正的爆款 AI 产品。知情人士称，Meta 多个 AI 团队都在承压，70 小时工作周成为常态，同时全年进行了多轮裁员与重组。这种节奏，像极了一家被逼到墙角的初创公司，而不是市值万亿的科技巨头。从 AI 赢家到被质疑，不过一年时间今年是 Meta AI 的坎儿年。去年九月，意气风发的扎克伯格还站在 Meta Connect 的舞台上，信心满满地宣称 Llama 将成为业内最先进的 AI 模型，让所有人都能受益于人工智能。那时的他，像极了一个布道者，向世界传递着开源 AI 的福音。然而仅仅一年后，风向就变了。到了两个月前的财报电话会议上，扎克伯格对 Llama 的提及只剩下了一次。那个曾经被当作 Meta AI 战略核心的开源模型，正在悄悄让位给 Avocado 这个神秘项目。这个转变背后，是 Meta 在 AI 竞赛中越来越明显的焦虑。当 OpenAI 的 GPT 系列、Google 的 Gemini、Anthropic 的 Claude 接连发布重磅更新时，Meta 发现自己似乎被甩在了身后。尤其是，Google 在 AI 领域的投入正逐渐显现成效，而 Meta 却陷入了方向不明的泥潭。为此，扎克伯格的应对方式简单粗暴，砸钱挖人。今年 7月份，Meta 宣布成立超级智能实验室 MSL，将公司所有 AI 业务重组到这个新部门之下。紧接着，一场硅谷 AI 人才的扫货大战拉开帷幕。最引人注目的一笔交易发生在同月，Meta 以 143 亿美元的天价引入了 Scale AI 的 28 岁创始人 Alexandr Wang 及其团队。虽然 Wang 不是工程师，但被认为是业内最具人脉的AI创业者之一。随后，扎克伯格和 Wang 展开疯狂招人，争抢顶级 AI 研究员，开出高达数亿美元的薪酬。据 OpenAI 首席研究官 Mark Chen 称，扎克伯格甚至亲自送自制的汤到 OpenAI 员工家门口，劝他们跳槽到 Meta。Wang 被任命为 Meta 首席 AI 官，领导一个叫 TBD Lab 的精英小组。这个名字本身就很有意思，TBD 是“to be determined”的缩写，意思是待定。最初只是个临时代号，但因为太贴切了反而保留了下来，某种程度上也反映出 Meta AI 战略的探索性质。除了 Wang，Meta 还挖来了前 GitHub CEO Nat Friedman，让他负责 MSL 的产品与应用研究，以及 ChatGPT 联合创始人赵晟佳。这些重金引入的大佬带来了硅谷前沿 AI 研发的标准流程，彻底改变了 Meta 传统的软件开发文化。然而改变的代价是巨大的。仅仅四个月后，Meta 就将 2025 年的资本支出预期从 660 亿至 720 亿美元调升至 700 亿至 720 亿美元。投资者开始担心，这么烧钱到底值不值。质疑声四起，Avocado 将成为挽救声量的最后一道保障。开源？闭源！Llama 4 失败成为转折点Avocado 转向闭源并非无迹可寻。报道中提到，Llama 4 在发布后未能吸引足够的开发者关注，同时基准测试分数“作弊”的行为使其备受诟病，进而也让扎克伯格开始重新思考开源战略。据称，扎克伯格对 Llama 4 系列超大模型 Behemoth 的发展方向感到失望，最终放弃了该项目，转而寻求新的路径。此外，扎克伯格在 7 月的一次表态中透露了这种转变的苗头。他说，我们需要严谨地控制风险，并谨慎选择开源内容。这与他此前在博文中“开源正迅速缩小与闭源的差距”的豪言壮语形成了鲜明对比。MSL 新成立的超级智能实验室领导层对开源策略也提出质疑，他们更倾向于打造强大的闭源 AI 模型。虽然 Meta 官方一再表示其对开源 AI 的立场没有改变，但内部的风向显然已经转了。Llama 4 的失败成为扎克伯格战略转向的关键节点，也引发了内部重大人事调整。据知情人士透露，Meta 首席产品官 Chris Cox 在 Llama 4 失利后被调离原 AI 部门 GenAI，不再主管 AI 业务。这位在 Meta 工作多年的老将就这样从 AI 战略的核心圈子里出局了。随后，扎克伯格开启了 AI 人才的扫货模式。28 岁的 Alexandr Wang 被任命为首席 AI 官，领导 TBD Lab 这个精英团队。Avocado 正是在这个团队中研发的。整个 MSL 的组织架构被拆分成四个主要部分。TBD Lab 由 Alexandr Wang 领导，专注于 Meta 下一代大型语言模型研发，被视为 MSL 内部的“旗舰”团队。FAIR 基础 AI 研究团队是 Meta 原有的人工智能基础研究部门，专注长期前沿研究，在 MSL 重组中被纳入新架构。产品及应用研究团队 PAR 由 Nat Friedman 领导，负责将 AI 技术整合到产品和消费应用中，定位为 AI 产品化和应用落地的桥梁。MSL 基础设施团队则由 Meta 工程副总裁 Aparna Ramani 领导，负责支撑 AI 模型的大规模计算基础设施建设，确保 Meta 拥有足够的数据中心、GPU 算力和工程工具。科研模式上，TBD Lab 主打一个“小而精”，整个团队只有几十名顶尖研究人员和工程师。Meta 首席财务官强调，这是一个高度人才密集的小团队，被设计为在一到两年内将 AI 模型推向前沿水平。这个团队就坐在扎克伯格办公室附近，但运作方式却像一家独立的初创公司。他们甚至不使用 Meta 内部的社交平台 Workplace，保持着高度的独立性。团队文化鼓励工程师快速构建原型并推动模型能力极限，采取“成果导向”的轻流程方式，偏重演示和实做，而非冗长的文档流程。Nat Friedman 在 10 月的 Masters of Scale 峰会上透露了这种文化转变。他说，Meta 现在的新口号是“要演示，不要写文档”。这种硅谷创业公司的做派与 Meta 以往多个部门协调、确保数十亿用户应用一致性的传统开发流程形成了鲜明对比。然而这种转变也带来了文化冲击。知情人士称，Wang 和 Friedman 的管理风格较为封闭，与 Meta 过往“工作公开透明”的文化形成鲜明反差。这两位新任高管是基础设施专家，而非消费者应用专家，他们带来的不仅是新的开发方式，还有完全不同的工作文化。据《纽约时报》报道，在今年秋季的一些会议中，Wang 私下表示，他与扎克伯格的一些老将，比如首席产品官 Chris Cox 和首席技术官 Andrew Bosworth，在一些问题上意见不合。分歧的焦点在于 AI 模型的发展方向。Cox 和 Bosworth 希望 Wang 的团队专注于利用 Instagram 和 Facebook 的数据来训练 Meta 的新基础 AI 模型，以提升社交媒体信息流和广告业务。但正在开发 Avocado 的 Wang 却拒绝了这一建议。据称他认为，团队的首要目标应该是追赶 OpenAI 和 Google 的 AI 模型，而不是过早地专注于实际产品。这种分歧反映出 Meta 新 AI 团队与公司其他高层之间日益显著的对立氛围。根据多位现任和前任员工的说法，TBD Lab 的研究人员认为，Meta 的许多高管只关心如何改进社交媒体业务，而他们的目标是打造一种类似“神”的超级智能。在最近一次会议中，Cox 曾询问 Wang 是否可以像 Google 利用 YouTube 数据训练 AI 模型一样，使用 Instagram 数据来训练 Meta 的 AI，以优化推荐算法。但 Wang 回应说，将具体业务需求纳入训练过程会拖慢打造超级智能的进度。之后他还私下抱怨称，Cox 过于专注改进自己负责的产品，而忽视了前沿 AI 模型的开发。是否最终三人达成一致，目前尚不清楚。矛盾不仅体现在战略分歧上，还涉及到真金白银的资源分配。据两位知情人士透露，Bosworth 近日被要求从他负责的虚拟现实与增强现实部门 Reality Labs 明年的预算中削减 20 亿美元，这笔钱被转移到了 Wang 团队的预算中。此外，Meta 内部也有人对计算资源的分配产生争议。到了秋天，一些负责 Instagram 和 Facebook 内容算法的员工提出异议，认为数据中心的算力应优先用于改进推荐算法，而不是训练 AI 模型。他们指出推荐算法能直接带来收益，而 AI 模型目前还没有赚钱。对于报道中提到的 Wang 与 Cox、Bosworth 之间的矛盾和 20 亿美元的预算，Meta 发言人 Dave Arnold 在一份声明中予以否认。与此同时，扎克伯格也并未完全放权。Aparna Ramani 在 Meta 任职近十年，被指定负责分配 MSL 的计算资源，显然是扎克伯格安插的“自己人”。此外，Meta 还调任Vishal Shah 为 AI 产品副总裁，与 Friedman 合作。Shah 曾是 Reality Labs 负责人，被视为扎克伯格的忠实执行者。这种权力平衡的微妙设计，在 10 月迎来了一次大规模调整。Meta 宣布将在 MSL 部门裁减约 600 个岗位，具体受影响的团队包括原 FAIR 基础研究组、部分产品型 AI 团队，以及 AI 基础架构团队。而新成立的 TBD Lab 不受此次裁员影响，这表明 Meta 对这个核心研发团队寄予厚望。据 Axios 报道，MSL 裁员消息在 10 月 22 日由 Alexandr Wang 通知员工。Wang 在内部备忘录中强调，精简团队有助于加快决策、提高每位成员的责任范围和影响力。他暗示过去团队人头过多、汇报链条过长，反而降低了执行效率。根据 Meta 的说明，此次裁员旨在使 AI 团队“更加灵活和响应迅速”。这次裁员并非出于财务困境，而更像是战略重组的一部分。FAIR 团队作为长期研究部门，一些纯学术项目可能难见短期产出，被视为与当前“提速赶超”的战略不符，因此成为裁撤重点。更微妙的是，这次裁员的时机加速了图灵奖得主、Meta 首席 AI 科学家 Yann LeCun 的离职出走，并顺势而为地创办初创公司。LeCun 是 FAIR 的联合创始人之一，他的离开加上此前一些研究员出走，已经给 FAIR 团队带来了士气波动。Meta 干脆借此机会重组团队，将旧 FAIR 人员和项目裁撤或并入新的产品线。裁员释放出这样的信息，Meta 将不再无限供养长期研究，而要全力以赴追求短期成果。这对尚留 Meta 的研究人员更是一种震慑和鞭策。基础设施转型，押注超级数据中心在继续开发 Avocado 的同时，Meta 也在改变其基础设施建设策略。知情人士称，公司正更多依赖第三方云计算服务，如 CoreWeave 和 Oracle，来开发和测试 AI 功能。这是一个有意思的转变，Meta 曾经以自建数据中心著称，但在 AI 时代，快速获取算力的重要性超过了一切。与此同时，Meta 也在建设自己的大型数据中心。10 月，Meta 宣布与 Blue Owl Capital 成立合资企业，共同投资 270 亿美元在路易斯安那州 Richland Parish 建设超大型 Hyperion 数据中心。Meta 表示，这项合作为其“实现长期 AI 愿景”提供了“速度和灵活性”。值得注意的是，这笔 270 亿美元的融资协议宣布的时间，恰好就在 MSL 裁员 600 人的同一周。这显然不是巧合。Meta 在缩减人力的同时，通过外部资金来确保硬件投入不减，以支撑其大模型计算需求。从人员和财务两方面为 Meta AI 业务“减负”，让 MSL 可以轻装上阵。此外，Meta 还在产品中测试其他 AI 模型。例如，Vibes 使用了 Black Forest Labs 和 Midjourney 提供的模型，后者 Friedman 担任顾问。这说明 Meta 并不排斥使用第三方模型，只要能快速推出产品。尽管 AI 战略陷入混乱，Meta 的核心业务数字广告依然稳健。年度营收超过 1600 亿美元，广告营收仍以每年超 20% 的速度增长，这得益于 AI 优化和 Instagram 的持续走热。投资者也认可 Meta 通过 AI 提升效率、精简结构的做法。Meta 股价虽然在 2025 年表现不佳，远落后于 Google 母公司 Alphabet，但整体还算健康。当然，扎克伯格的野心不止于此。扎克伯格曾表示，如果 Meta 不大胆投入，就有可能在未来 AI 主导的世界中被边缘化。Meta 上周也被传出风声，将削减虚拟现实和元宇宙相关投入，转向更加受欢迎的 AI 智能眼镜产品。这个产品由 EssilorLuxottica 与 Meta 联合开发，算是少数几个看得见摸得着的 AI 落地应用。这是一个赌注。扎克伯格试图用赚钱的广告业务补贴烧钱的 AI 研发，希望在未来的 AI 时代占据一席之地。至于能否成功，以及 Avocado 能否在 2026 年第一季度如期发布并引起市场轰动，都将决定扎克伯格这场豪赌的成败。现在的 Meta AI 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