Jason1205
2025-04-04
降息预期大增
今夜非农报告+鲍威尔发声！美联储迎来“政策大考“
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疯好大听不见
2025-04-04
疯好大听不见
持相反态度，懂王昨天那么搞，通胀马上就要来了，不加息就不错了，不指望降息。
imdavid
:
不关通胀事了，现在是经济衰退的问题了，看美联储松不松了
月月有 余老虎
:
[强]
什么也没有了～
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>策略师指出，当前美债市场未见买方疲惫，股市也未现卖方衰竭，这意味着市场情绪仍可能剧烈摆动。亚洲交易时段，十年期美债收益率在4.03%附近窄幅波动，静待风暴来临。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e93fae53def59b812c2ae49beaa51cf8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1319\" tg-height=\"744\"/></p><p>值得关注的是，市场对美联储政策路径的预期分歧正在扩大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计年内不会降息，而瑞银全球财富管理则预期进一步降息。这种分歧直接体现在债券交易策略上，Longtail Alpha首席投资官Vineer Bhansali正押注"收益率曲线陡化"——买入两年期债券、卖出30年期债券，同时博弈经济放缓推低短端利率，而通胀压力推高长端利率。</p><p>这种不断增长的市场押注已反映在收益率曲线上，周四，两年期与30年期债券收益率的差距扩大至75个基点，创下三年来的新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcd98a0de0904508184458e6c86211c8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1319\" tg-height=\"741\"/></p><p>在关税冲击与数据洪流的双重夹击下，全球投资者正屏息凝神。今夜的非农报告与鲍威尔讲话，或将决定美债市场的短期方向，更将影响全球风险资产的配置逻辑。正如交易员们所言："在特朗普的关税大棒下，任何数据都可能成为压垮市场的'最后一根稻草'。"</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1274194.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间周五20:30，美国劳工部将公布3月非农就业报告，仅仅三小时后，鲍威尔的公开演讲更将直面关税冲击。4月4日，随着特朗普政府关税政策引发的全球经济动荡持续发酵，华尔街正进入\"超级数据周\"的决战时刻。北京时间周五20:30，美国劳工部将公布3月非农就业报告，这份报告不仅将揭示劳动力市场现状，更将成为预判美联储政策转向的关键线索。仅仅三小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔的公开演讲更将直面关税冲击，其表态或...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1274194.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1274194.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2524225152","content_text":"北京时间周五20:30，美国劳工部将公布3月非农就业报告，仅仅三小时后，鲍威尔的公开演讲更将直面关税冲击。4月4日，随着特朗普政府关税政策引发的全球经济动荡持续发酵，华尔街正进入\"超级数据周\"的决战时刻。北京时间周五20:30，美国劳工部将公布3月非农就业报告，这份报告不仅将揭示劳动力市场现状，更将成为预判美联储政策转向的关键线索。仅仅三小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔的公开演讲更将直面关税冲击，其表态或将引发市场新一轮剧烈波动。关税阴霾下，全球避险情绪急剧升温。周四十年期美债收益率一度跌破4%大关，创下大选以来的最低水平。市场对美联储降息的押注完全消化了6月降息25个基点的预期，交易员们正在疯狂争夺避险资产。然而，美联储官员的表态却暗藏玄机：尽管关税可能削弱企业与消费者信心，但强劲的就业市场和顽固的通胀压力，仍可能让美联储选择按兵不动。\"美联储正陷入两难境地，\"Winshore资本管理合伙人Gang Hu直言，\"若周五就业数据不及预期，美联储将不得不采取行动。\"彭博调查的经济学家预计，3月非农新增就业或从2月的15.1万放缓至14万，失业率或维持在4.1%。这组数据将成为检验劳动力市场韧性的试金石，任何低于预期的表现都将加剧美联储\"抗通胀\"与\"保增长\"之间的政策矛盾。在数据公布前的微妙时刻，机构博弈已白热化。摩根大通策略师指出，当前美债市场未见买方疲惫，股市也未现卖方衰竭，这意味着市场情绪仍可能剧烈摆动。亚洲交易时段，十年期美债收益率在4.03%附近窄幅波动，静待风暴来临。值得关注的是，市场对美联储政策路径的预期分歧正在扩大。摩根士丹利预计年内不会降息，而瑞银全球财富管理则预期进一步降息。这种分歧直接体现在债券交易策略上，Longtail 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