🚨🚨Market Analysis for February 19, 2025

Global Equity Markets

1. **US Markets**:  

   - The **S&P 500** rose 0.24% to a fresh closing high of 6,148.8, driven by tech resilience and optimism ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. The **Nasdaq** gained 0.07%, while the **Dow** edged up 0.02% to 44,657.0, reflecting a cautious but positive sentiment .  

   - **Tech Sector**: NVIDIA (+3.4%) and Tesla (+5%) led gains, supported by AI-driven demand and strong earnings. However, Intel (INTC) and HP Inc. (HPQ) are showing bullish technical signals, with Intel’s 5dEMA crossing the 200dEMA and HP’s MACD turning positive .  

2. **Asia-Pacific**:  

   - **Hang Seng**: Jumped 2.24%, driven by Alibaba (+8.6%) and Xiaomi (+4.8%) on AI optimism. The **Shanghai Composite** rose 0.7%, supported by fiscal stimulus and tech sectors, though semiconductor stocks faced profit-taking .  

   - **Singapore**: The FSSTI Index gained 0.5% to 3,925.6, with UOB (+6%) hitting record profits and AEM Holdings (+5%) surging after being highlighted in the Budget 2025 speech .  

3. **Europe**:  

   - The **DAX** surged 2.09% to 22,612.02, fueled by Siemens (+7.3%) and defense stocks (Rheinmetall +4%) on hopes of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire. The **FTSE 100** underperformed (-0.49%) due to weak earnings from BAT and Unilever .  

Forex & Central Banks

- **USD (DXY)**: Rose 0.23% to 107.05, recovering from last week’s losses. Bearish momentum persists, with resistance at 108.41 and support at 106.59 .  

- **EUR/USD**: Testing resistance at 1.0517, with bullish momentum supported by ECB rate-cut expectations. A break above 1.0600 could target 1.0770 .  

- **USD/JPY**: Stabilized near 151.23, with potential for a bullish bounce toward 153.25. BOJ’s tightening hints and Japan’s weak industrial production (0.3% MoM) weigh on the yen .  

- **AUD/USD**: Volatility expected as the RBA cut rates by 25 bps yesterday, with focus on Australia’s Wage Price Index data today .  

Commodities

  

- **Oil**: Brent crude rose 0.78% to $75.81, supported by Middle East tensions and OPEC+ supply discipline. However, oversupply risks persist .  

- **Gold**: Hit a record high of $2,933.72, driven by safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainty and Fed policy ambiguity. Next target: $2,960 .  

- **Copper**: Prices surged due to a historic dislocation between Comex and LME markets, driven by Trump’s tariff threats and a short squeeze .  

Key Events & Data Today

1. **FOMC Meeting Minutes**: Expected to provide clarity on the Fed’s rate-cut timeline, with markets pricing a 65% chance of a May cut .  

2. **UK CPI Data**: Forecast at 2.8% YoY, with implications for GBP volatility .  

3. **RBNZ Rate Decision**: Dovish signals expected amid weak growth and inflation concerns .  

Technical Outlook

- **S&P 500 (US500)**: Bullish above 6,099 pivot; resistance at 6,176.46. A breakout could target 6,200 .  

- **DAX (DE40)**: Targets 23,273.02 resistance; support at 22,554.00 .  

- **Gold (XAU/USD)**: Bullish above $2,800; next target $2,960 .  

- **Bitcoin**: Testing pivot at $98,853.40; break below $92,857.02 risks deeper correction .  

Risks & Trends

1. **Tariff Escalation**: Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum and potential retaliation from China/EU threaten global supply chains .  

2. **AI Competition**: China’s DeepSeek challenges US tech dominance, pressuring semiconductor valuations .  

3. **Central Bank Policies**: Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance contrasts with ECB/BOJ easing, creating currency divergence .  

Conclusion:

Today’s markets hinge on **FOMC minutes** and **UK CPI data**, with equities balancing tech resilience against tariff risks. Gold and oil remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, while forex markets react to shifting rate expectations. Monitor:  

- **Fed messaging**: Dovish tones may revive rate-cut bets.  

- **Tariff developments**: Escalation risks for tech and industrial sectors.  

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$