Global Equity Markets
1. **US Markets**:
- The **S&P 500** traded flat near the 6,099–6,100 resistance level, supported by strong earnings (77% of companies beat EPS estimates, with 16.9% annual earnings growth) . Tech and consumer discretionary sectors outperformed, led by Amazon and AI-driven stocks, though valuations remain elevated (forward P/E ratio at 22.2 vs. 10-year average of 18.3) .
- **Nasdaq 100** tested resistance at 6,176.46, driven by semiconductor stocks, while the **Dow Jones** hovered near 44,148.32 pivot, supported by industrials like Coca-Cola .
2. **Europe**:
- **DAX** surged to a record high of 22,612.02, fueled by Siemens (+7.3%) and defense stocks, though auto sectors faced pressure from EV demand concerns .
- **FTSE 100** lagged (-0.49%) due to weak earnings from BAT and Unilever .
3. **Asia-Pacific**:
- **Hang Seng** rose 2.24%, driven by AI optimism (Alibaba +8.6%, Xiaomi +4.8%) and inflows via Southbound Stock Connect (USD 20 billion YTD) .
- **Indian Markets**: The Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 2% to an 8-month low, weighed by global trade tensions and poor earnings. Gillette India (+12%) surged ahead of its dividend record date .
Forex & Central Banks
- **USD (DXY)**: Dipped 0.38% to 107.06 amid Fed rate-cut bets, with resistance at 108.38 and support at 105.58 .
- **EUR/USD**: Bullish momentum targets 1.0607 resistance, supported by ECB rate-cut expectations and stronger Eurozone data .
- **AUD/USD**: Volatility expected as the **RBA cut rates by 25 bps** (first since COVID), with markets eyeing Governor Bullock’s hawkish guidance .
- **USD/JPY**: Stabilized near 151.227 despite BOJ’s tightening hints, with support at 149.53 .
Commodities
- **Oil**: Brent crude rose 0.74% to $75.29/barrel after a Caspian Sea drone strike, though oversupply risks (OPEC+ output hikes) persist .
- **Gold**: Gained 0.54% to $2,897.65/oz, nearing $2,933 resistance, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions .
- **Palm Oil**: Prices remained firm on biodiesel mandates, with Bumitama Agri (+44% YTD) leading sector gains .
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Key Events & Data Today
1. **RBA Rate Decision**: Cut to 4.50%, with focus on forward guidance .
2. **UK Employment Data**: Claimant Count expected at +10k; BoE’s Bailey speech in focus .
3. **Canadian CPI**: Likely to dominate North American trading sessions .
4. **US Retail Sales**: Mixed consumer activity trends may pressure equities .
Technical Outlook
- **S&P 500 (US500)**: Bullish above 6,099 pivot; resistance at 6,176.46 (127.2% Fibonacci extension) .
- **DAX (DE40)**: Targets 23,273.02 resistance; support at 22,554.00 .
- **Gold (XAU/USD)**: Bullish above $2,800; next target $2,933 .
- **Bitcoin**: Testing pivot at $98,853.40; break below $92,857.02 risks deeper correction .
Risks & Trends
1. **Tariff Escalation**: US-China tensions (25% aluminum/steel tariffs) and EU retaliation risks threaten global supply chains .
2. **AI Competition**: China’s DeepSeek challenges US tech dominance, pressuring semiconductor valuations .
3. **Consumer Weakness**: Bloated inventories and slowing retail sales signal strained consumer activity .
Investment Opportunities
1. **Tech & AI**: NVIDIA (+3.4%), Alibaba (+8.6%), and Tencent (ad-tech upgrades driving 18% revenue growth) .
2. **Defensive Sectors**: Utilities (Vanguard Utilities ETF) and gold for hedging geopolitical risks .
3. **Singapore REITs**: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (SGD 3.30 FV) and Keppel DC REIT (SGD 2.43 FV) offer selective value .
Conclusion:
Markets remain driven by central bank policies (RBA cut, Fed/ECB guidance), earnings resilience, and geopolitical risks. Equities face valuation headwinds, while commodities like gold and oil balance supply-demand dynamics. Focus on today’s RBA commentary, UK jobs data, and Canadian CPI for short-term direction.
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