Kenbey2002
2020-12-15
EV gonna fly lolz.
Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于电动汽车股票蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车。以下是5家券商对它们的估值。</blockquote>
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Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于电动汽车股票蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车。以下是5家券商对它们的估值。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127683527","media":"barrons","summary":"Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO","content":"<p>Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.</p><p><blockquote>分析师最近越来越迷恋中国电动汽车股票——包括蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车——尽管它们的股价越来越高。以下是他们对飞涨股票的估值方式。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs</p><p><blockquote>高盛</blockquote></p><p> Among the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的纯电动汽车制造商中，高盛分析师Fei Fang关注了areLi Auto（股票代码：LI）和蔚来汽车（蔚来）。他将李评级为买入，蔚来评级为持有。他对Li股票的目标价为每股60美元，对蔚来股票的目标价为每股59美元。</blockquote></p><p> He values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.</p><p><blockquote>他使用三阶段贴现现金流模型对两家公司进行估值。这通常会预测未来很长一段时间的销售额、利润率和股东可用现金。所有现金流均按投资者可接受的回报率折现。</blockquote></p><p> Breaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.</p><p><blockquote>将其分为三个阶段——增长、整合和成熟——反映了增长随着时间的推移而减速的事实。</blockquote></p><p> Fang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.</p><p><blockquote>方预计Li销量将从2020年的3万辆增至2030年的170万辆和2050年的500万辆。对于蔚来来说，Fang的销量将从2020年的4.3万辆上升到2030年的80万辆和2050年的320万辆。</blockquote></p><p> The discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>贴现现金流有助于股票估值，但他看到的价值在于增长。Fang预计Li将在50年内增长166倍。平均年增长率约为11%。Fang预计蔚来将增长74倍，在50年内以平均每年9%的速度扩大单位销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师Tim Hsiao也涵盖了理想汽车和蔚来，对这两家公司的评级都相当于买入。他对李和蔚来的目标价分别为26美元和33美元。两只股票的交易价格均高于这些关口，但他已经大约一个月没有更新价格目标了。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，他像方一样使用贴现现金流，但萧没有像方那样明确地阐明他的假设。他的模型得出的价格比高盛分析师低约44%。</blockquote></p><p> UBS</p><p><blockquote>瑞银</blockquote></p><p> Hsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>萧和方没有报道小鹏汽车（XPEV），但瑞银分析师保罗·龚却报道了。他对小鹏汽车股票评级为持有，目标价为59美元。该目标基于2022年企业价值与销售额之比的11倍，以特斯拉目前的12倍为基准。</blockquote></p><p> He also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”</p><p><blockquote>他还有一个贴现现金流模型，小鹏汽车的估值为40美元。这与他59美元的目标价有很大不同，但该目标“可能反映了近期市场对中国电动汽车主题的乐观情绪”。龚表示，他预计“市场将持续乐观”。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Nick Lai对蔚来和小鹏汽车以及比亚迪（1211.Hong Kong）有自己的看法，比亚迪是一家多元化的汽车制造商和大型电动汽车生产商。他对蔚来和小鹏汽车的股票评级为买入，并将这两只股票的目标价定为50美元。他对比亚迪股票的评级为持有，并对该股的目标价为200港元。</blockquote></p><p> For BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>对于比亚迪，赖对电池业务的市盈率为80倍，对电动汽车制造业务的市盈率为50倍。对于赖来说，高倍数是合理的，因为他相信电动汽车的渗透率将从2019年占新车销量的5%上升到2025年的20%。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来和小鹏汽车，摩根大通的赖使用2025年预计销售额的三倍进行估值，同时指出该倍数是特斯拉(TSLA)的折扣。特斯拉的估值约为2025年预计销售额的5倍。</blockquote></p><p> It’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.</p><p><blockquote>这是一种相对的方法——没有讨论销售额的3倍还是5倍是否合适。但成长型投资者在评估股票时通常会使用与其他成长型公司的比较。这可能比使用贴现现金流更容易。无论哪种方式，准确预测未来50年都是非常困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行分析师迪森·尤喜欢蔚来股票，评级为买入。和赖一样，他的目标价是50美元，他还使用市销率来评估蔚来股票的价值。</blockquote></p><p> He recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”</p><p><blockquote>他最近将目标价从每股34美元上调至50美元。新目标是基于2022年预计销售额的10倍，高于2022年预计销售额的8倍。于指出，该倍数处于“纯电动同行群体”的高端，但表示“蔚来的高端市场地位、令人向往的品牌和技术路线图”证明了这一点是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> He compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.</p><p><blockquote>他将蔚来的销量倍数与小鹏汽车和特斯拉进行比较，得出了公平的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.</p><p><blockquote>正如这次中国电动汽车股票估值活动所表明的那样，对股票进行估值的方法有很多。无论选择哪种估值方法，股票表现往往取决于业务执行力。就电动汽车股票而言，分析师和投资者预计会出现大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于电动汽车股票蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车。以下是5家券商对它们的估值。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于电动汽车股票蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车。以下是5家券商对它们的估值。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-15 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.</p><p><blockquote>分析师最近越来越迷恋中国电动汽车股票——包括蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车——尽管它们的股价越来越高。以下是他们对飞涨股票的估值方式。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs</p><p><blockquote>高盛</blockquote></p><p> Among the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的纯电动汽车制造商中，高盛分析师Fei Fang关注了areLi Auto（股票代码：LI）和蔚来汽车（蔚来）。他将李评级为买入，蔚来评级为持有。他对Li股票的目标价为每股60美元，对蔚来股票的目标价为每股59美元。</blockquote></p><p> He values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.</p><p><blockquote>他使用三阶段贴现现金流模型对两家公司进行估值。这通常会预测未来很长一段时间的销售额、利润率和股东可用现金。所有现金流均按投资者可接受的回报率折现。</blockquote></p><p> Breaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.</p><p><blockquote>将其分为三个阶段——增长、整合和成熟——反映了增长随着时间的推移而减速的事实。</blockquote></p><p> Fang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.</p><p><blockquote>方预计Li销量将从2020年的3万辆增至2030年的170万辆和2050年的500万辆。对于蔚来来说，Fang的销量将从2020年的4.3万辆上升到2030年的80万辆和2050年的320万辆。</blockquote></p><p> The discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>贴现现金流有助于股票估值，但他看到的价值在于增长。Fang预计Li将在50年内增长166倍。平均年增长率约为11%。Fang预计蔚来将增长74倍，在50年内以平均每年9%的速度扩大单位销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师Tim Hsiao也涵盖了理想汽车和蔚来，对这两家公司的评级都相当于买入。他对李和蔚来的目标价分别为26美元和33美元。两只股票的交易价格均高于这些关口，但他已经大约一个月没有更新价格目标了。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来，他像方一样使用贴现现金流，但萧没有像方那样明确地阐明他的假设。他的模型得出的价格比高盛分析师低约44%。</blockquote></p><p> UBS</p><p><blockquote>瑞银</blockquote></p><p> Hsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>萧和方没有报道小鹏汽车（XPEV），但瑞银分析师保罗·龚却报道了。他对小鹏汽车股票评级为持有，目标价为59美元。该目标基于2022年企业价值与销售额之比的11倍，以特斯拉目前的12倍为基准。</blockquote></p><p> He also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”</p><p><blockquote>他还有一个贴现现金流模型，小鹏汽车的估值为40美元。这与他59美元的目标价有很大不同，但该目标“可能反映了近期市场对中国电动汽车主题的乐观情绪”。龚表示，他预计“市场将持续乐观”。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Nick Lai对蔚来和小鹏汽车以及比亚迪（1211.Hong Kong）有自己的看法，比亚迪是一家多元化的汽车制造商和大型电动汽车生产商。他对蔚来和小鹏汽车的股票评级为买入，并将这两只股票的目标价定为50美元。他对比亚迪股票的评级为持有，并对该股的目标价为200港元。</blockquote></p><p> For BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>对于比亚迪，赖对电池业务的市盈率为80倍，对电动汽车制造业务的市盈率为50倍。对于赖来说，高倍数是合理的，因为他相信电动汽车的渗透率将从2019年占新车销量的5%上升到2025年的20%。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来和小鹏汽车，摩根大通的赖使用2025年预计销售额的三倍进行估值，同时指出该倍数是特斯拉(TSLA)的折扣。特斯拉的估值约为2025年预计销售额的5倍。</blockquote></p><p> It’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.</p><p><blockquote>这是一种相对的方法——没有讨论销售额的3倍还是5倍是否合适。但成长型投资者在评估股票时通常会使用与其他成长型公司的比较。这可能比使用贴现现金流更容易。无论哪种方式，准确预测未来50年都是非常困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行分析师迪森·尤喜欢蔚来股票，评级为买入。和赖一样，他的目标价是50美元，他还使用市销率来评估蔚来股票的价值。</blockquote></p><p> He recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”</p><p><blockquote>他最近将目标价从每股34美元上调至50美元。新目标是基于2022年预计销售额的10倍，高于2022年预计销售额的8倍。于指出，该倍数处于“纯电动同行群体”的高端，但表示“蔚来的高端市场地位、令人向往的品牌和技术路线图”证明了这一点是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> He compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.</p><p><blockquote>他将蔚来的销量倍数与小鹏汽车和特斯拉进行比较，得出了公平的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.</p><p><blockquote>正如这次中国电动汽车股票估值活动所表明的那样，对股票进行估值的方法有很多。无论选择哪种估值方法，股票表现往往取决于业务执行力。就电动汽车股票而言，分析师和投资者预计会出现大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1\">barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3f944cb946cded615557bb29da37d8","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127683527","content_text":"Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.\nGoldman Sachs\nAmong the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.\nHe values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.\nBreaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.\nFang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.\nThe discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.\nMorgan Stanley\nMorgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.\nFor NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.\nUBS\nHsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.\nHe also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”\nJ.P. Morgan\nJ.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.\nFor BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.\nFor NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.\nIt’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.\nDeutsche Bank\nDeutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.\nHe recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”\nHe compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.\nThere are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/394873534"}
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