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2021-02-08

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The Biden Stock Market Won’t Be Like the Trump Market. What to Expect.<blockquote>拜登股市不会像特朗普股市那样。期待什么。</blockquote>

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What to Expect.<blockquote>拜登股市不会像特朗普股市那样。期待什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132830852","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s time to buycyclicalsandsmall-caps. That’s been a bold call, especially for fund managers who ha","content":"It’s time to buycyclicalsandsmall-caps. That’s been a bold call, especially for fund managers who have acquired a “hot-stove mentality” after being burned over the past 10 years. But this time, says Savita Subramanian,Bank of America’swidely followed strategist, outperformance could last for years, as it did after the tech bubble burst. Finding promising investments is even more important today, especially if the market itself delivers lackluster returns, as she expects.<blockquote>是时候买入周期性股票和小盘股了。这是一个大胆的看涨期权，尤其是对于那些在过去 10 年被烧伤后形成了 “火炉心态 ”的基金经理来说。但这一次，美国银行（Bank of America）广泛关注的策略师萨维塔-苏布拉马尼安（Savita Subramanian）说，优异的表现可能会持续数年，就像科技泡沫破裂后一样。如今，寻找有前途的投资更加重要，尤其是如果市场本身像她预期的那样提供乏善可陈的回报的话。</blockquote> A double major in math and philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley, Subramanian is a heavy user of quant data in her studies of investor sentiment, and has been chief strategist since 2011. She recently chatted withBarron’sabout howthe Biden administrationwill achieve economic growth, and why—despite being the firm’s head of ESG—she’s recommending energy stocks.<blockquote>Subramanian 拥有加州大学伯克利分校数学和哲学双学位，在研究投资者情绪时大量使用量化数据，自 2011 年以来一直担任首席策略师。她最近和巴伦关于拜登政府将如何实现经济增长，以及尽管身为公司环境、社会和治理负责人，她为何推荐能源股。</blockquote> Read the following edited excerpts for more.<blockquote>阅读以下编辑过的摘录了解更多信息。</blockquote> Barron’s: President Biden has issued dozens of executive orders. How should investors digest these?<blockquote>巴伦周刊：拜登总统已发布数十项行政命令。投资者该如何消化这些？</blockquote> Savita Subramanian:They represent a few thematic changes and a big break from the market leadership of the past four years. This administration is less focused on asset inflation and more on real inflation, in creating jobs and reinvigorating the real economy, rather than just bolstering stock market returns. From listening to this new administration’s rhetoric, they’re not looking at barometers like theS&amp;P 500index or investment returns as a metric of success or failure. Instead, they’re focused on addressing some of the bigger inequities in the market, like income inequality. That means we’re going to see less-great market returns, but probably a bigger return in the economy overall.<blockquote>萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚：它们代表了一些主题变化，以及与过去四年市场领先地位的重大突破。本届政府不太关注资产通胀，而更关注实际通胀，关注创造就业机会和重振实体经济，而不仅仅是提振股市回报。从新政府的言论来看，他们并没有将标准普尔 500 指数或投资回报率等晴雨表作为衡量成败的指标。相反，他们专注于解决市场上一些更大的不平等问题，如收入不平等。这意味着我们将看到不太理想的市场回报，但整体经济的回报可能会更大。</blockquote> Your market call is pretty tepid.<blockquote>你们的市场看涨期权相当不温不火。</blockquote> I’m one of the lowest forecasts on Wall Street. We’re looking for 3,800 on the S&amp;P 500. It’s a very tech-growth-heavy benchmark. We’re looking for S&amp;P earnings to grow by about 20% this year. Obviously, we’re expecting to see some multiple compression. We’re expecting to see a very strong economic recovery. Our economists Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris are looking for 6% growth on U.S. gross domestic product. Most of that recovery should take place in the second half of this year as we see broad dispersal of vaccines and a more concerted, coordinated reopening. It’s hard to be bearish, given all the stimulus.<blockquote>我是华尔街预测最低的人之一。我们在标普500找3800人。这是一个非常注重技术增长的基准。我们预计标准普尔今年的盈利将增长 20% 左右。显然，我们期待看到一些多重压缩。我们预计经济复苏将非常强劲。我们的经济学家米歇尔·迈耶和伊桑·哈里斯预计美国国内生产总值将增长 6%。大部分复苏应该会在今年下半年发生，因为我们看到疫苗的广泛传播和更加一致、协调的重新开放。鉴于所有的刺激措施，很难看跌。</blockquote> Here’s why we’re not bearish: Interest rates are superlow, U.S. large-caps offer great yields, relative to bonds, and the Biden administration is laser-focused on the economy. It’s hard to see a recession-driven bear market.<blockquote>这就是我们不看跌的原因： 利率超低，相对于债券，美国大盘股的收益率很高，而且拜登政府非常关注经济。很难看到经济衰退驱动的熊市。</blockquote> The market was gripped by the spectacular rise ofGameStop[ticker: GME]. What does it mean?<blockquote>市场被股价的惊人上涨所吸引游戏驿站[股票代码：GME]。这是什么意思？</blockquote> We’re seeing more and more of the decoupling of fundamentals from performance. It’s always troubling to see, and it smacks of speculation. A couple of things: All of the action seemed to be focused on the small-cap space. Companies with high short interest in the S&amp;P 500 behaved normally, but those in theRussell 2000behaved very atypically. The good news is this seems to be localized in smaller-market-cap stocks, so the impact is less extreme, and it’s emblematic of more speculative drama in the market, rather than in more fundamental investing.<blockquote>我们看到越来越多的基本面与业绩脱钩。这总是令人不安，而且有点像猜测。有几件事：所有的行动似乎都集中在小盘股领域。在标普500拥有高空头利息的公司表现正常，但在 theRussell 2000 指数中的公司表现非常不典型。好消息是，这似乎局限于小市值股票，因此影响不那么极端，这象征着市场上更多的投机戏剧，而不是更基本面的投资。</blockquote> What would make you more bearish?<blockquote>什么会让你更加悲观？</blockquote> If we saw interest rates rise meaningfully from here. A big portion of the investor base today is retirees looking for income, forced to buy the S&amp;P 500. We’ve got really tight pockets of the market where you could potentially see an inflation spike. Two years ago, we polled all of our stock analysts to ask where they were seeing input cost pressure and pricing power, and the only two sectors they cited were utilities and health care. We did the same report a couple of months ago, and almost every analyst cited inflationary pressure.<blockquote>如果我们看到利率从这里大幅上升。如今，很大一部分投资者是寻求收入的退休人员，他们被迫购买标普500。我们的市场非常紧张，有可能出现通胀飙升。两年前，我们对所有股票分析师进行了调查，询问他们在哪些方面看到了投入成本压力和定价权，他们提到的唯一两个行业是公用事业和医疗保健。几个月前我们也做了同样的报告，几乎每个分析师都提到了通胀压力。</blockquote> Today, close to 70% of stocks pay a dividend that’s higher than the 10-year Treasury, which is very close to a record high. [The 10-year currently yields 1.12%.] If rates rise to 1.75%, which our economist is expecting, that proportion drops to 44%. And all of a sudden, that story vaporizes. That’s the swing factor. And that’s one reason we’re less optimistic about equities, not to mention all of the speculations we see.<blockquote>如今，近 70% 的股票支付的股息高于 10 年期国债，非常接近历史新高。[10 年期国债目前收益率为 1.12%。]如果利率升至 1.75%（正如我们的经济学家所预期的那样），该比例将降至 44%。突然间，这个故事烟消云散了。这就是摇摆因素。这也是我们对股市不太乐观的原因之一，更不用说我们看到的所有猜测了。</blockquote> The similarities between today and 2000 is democratization and retail participation in the market, the decoupling of fundamentals from price. The last time we’ve seen earnings surprises met with negative reactions, as we’re seeing now, was in March 2000. The other similarity is our sell-side indicator, a very good market-timing model that looks at Wall Street’s average recommendation to stocks in a balanced fund. That model is now spitting out close to 60%, which would be a sell signal, close to 2007 and almost exactly at the same level as March 2000. All of these ducks are lining up.<blockquote>今天和2000年的相似之处是民主化和零售参与市场，基本面与价格脱钩。我们上一次看到盈利惊喜遭遇负面反应，就像我们现在看到的那样，还是在 2000 年 3 月。另一个相似之处是我们的卖方指标，这是一个非常好的市场择时模型，可以查看华尔街对平衡基金中股票的平均推荐。该模型目前销量接近 60%，这将是一个卖出信号，接近 2007 年，几乎与 2000 年 3 月的水平完全相同。所有这些鸭子都在排队。</blockquote> So, what should investors do?<blockquote>那么，投资者应该怎么做呢？</blockquote> Focus on GDP-sensitive areas of the market that haven’t done well for almost a decade. Our sector overweights include financials, energy, industrials, and health care. We find some pent-up manufacturing demand from an unprecedented paralysis in the manufacturing and services economy. We’re more bullish on business investment than on consumption of durable goods. Within consumption, we’re more bullish on a pickup in consumer services than a pickup in consumer goods. Based on our credit-card data for 2020, unlike in the usual economic recession, spending trends remain strong. We had the fastest bear market. The Fed, fiscal policy, and Corporate America basically stepped up and staved off what could have been a deeper recession. Spending took place in home goods and the higher-end consumption areas of the market. Those areas could be at risk in 2021. Our sector underweights are communication services, which are half-growth, half-bond proxies; real estate; and staples.<blockquote>重点关注近十年来表现不佳的对 GDP 敏感的市场领域。我们增持的行业包括金融、能源、工业和医疗保健。我们从制造业和服务业经济前所未有的瘫痪中发现了一些被压抑的制造业需求。我们更看好商业投资，而不是耐用品消费。在消费方面，我们更看好消费服务的回升，而不是消费品的回升。根据我们 2020 年的信用卡数据，与通常的经济衰退不同，支出趋势仍然强劲。我们经历了最快的熊市。美联储、财政政策和美国企业基本上都加大了力度，避免了可能更严重的衰退。消费发生在家居用品和市场的高端消费领域。这些领域在 2021 年可能面临风险。我们的行业减持是通信服务，这是一半增长、一半债券代理；房地产；和订书钉。</blockquote> In 14 of the past 14 recessions, the recovery was led by value and cyclical. So, we’re going to see a value cycle. Growth stocks are overly discounting this low-rate, low-growth environment. An easier call to make than value is another area nobody wants to touch—smaller companies, because of liquidity, because of the oligopolistic market. We could be at the start of a longer-lived small-cap cycle, which tends to last eight to 10 years.<blockquote>在过去的14次衰退中，有14次是由价值和周期性推动的。因此，我们将看到一个价值周期。成长型股票过度低估了这种低利率、低增长的环境。比价值更容易实现的看涨期权是另一个没人愿意触及的领域——小公司，因为流动性，因为寡头垄断市场。我们可能正处于一个持续时间更长的小盘股周期的开始，这个周期往往会持续八到十年。</blockquote> What about the technology and megacap parts of the market?<blockquote>市场的技术和巨型部分呢？</blockquote> Coming out of the tech bubble, value outperformed growth for at least seven years. Some cycles last awhile.<blockquote>走出科技泡沫后，价值至少在七年内跑赢了增长。有些周期会持续一段时间。</blockquote> What surprises me is how reluctant fund managers or institutional investors are to shed exposure to that past leadership when we’re at what looks like a break point in terms of the economy and the political environment. It’s the hot-stove mentality, because every year since 2008, where anyone has bet on rising interest rates and inflation, they’ve basically been smacked down.<blockquote>令我惊讶的是，当我们正处于经济和政治环境的转折点时，基金经理或机构投资者是多么不愿意放弃与过去领导层的接触。这是一种热炉心态，因为自 2008 年以来，每年有人都在押注利率和通货膨胀上升，但基本上都被打爆了。</blockquote> More immediately, any potential reversal in Trump-era corporate tax cuts, which would make sense to fund all of the growth, would hit communication services and information technology: the two leadership sectors most overweighted by fund managers.<blockquote>更直接的是，特朗普时代企业减税政策的任何潜在逆转都将打击通信服务和信息技术：基金经理最增持的两个领先行业。</blockquote> Let’s talk about ESG.<blockquote>我们来谈谈ESG。</blockquote> We’ve really seen a demonstrable and well-articulated pivot of Corporate America in terms of how they’re aiming to please. They’ve gone from shareholder to stakeholder returns. That’s huge. They’re articulating and essentially promising us they care about the communities in which they operate, their employees, and customer satisfaction beyond the bottom line. I don’t think it’s anticapitalist. But I think it’s a new way of thinking about capitalism. The corporate stimulus during Covid-19 was sizable, equivalent on some level to fiscal and Fed stimulus. It was at least $1 trillion of support from Corporate America. Companies repurposed manufacturing to create ventilators, engaged in loan forbearance for consumers, made monetary donations. My own company initiated layoff freezes. It quelled a lot of consumer fears.<blockquote>我们确实看到了美国企业在如何取悦他人方面的明显且清晰的转变。它们已经从股东回报变成了利益相关者回报。太大了。他们清楚地表明，他们关心的是他们经营所在的社区、员工和客户满意度，而不仅仅是底线。我不认为这是反资本主义的。但我认为这是一种思考资本主义的新方式。新冠肺炎期间的企业刺激措施规模相当大，在某种程度上相当于财政和美联储刺激措施。美国企业至少提供了1万亿美元的支持。公司重新利用制造业制造呼吸机，为消费者提供贷款延期，并捐款。我自己的公司发起了裁员冻结。它平息了许多消费者的恐惧。</blockquote> There’s a learning curve that has been adopted by investors in terms of separating the real from the greenwashing. We’re also seeing big changes in the information that investors are being given about companies. Companies have realized that if they don’t publish a corporate sustainability report, they’re going to trade at a discount to their peer that does. So, that transparency and explosion in data is huge from an investor perspective. All of a sudden, you can codify all of these factors we once only thought about. But ESG is always going to be a messy process. There’s always going to be this interpretive element to it.<blockquote>投资者已经采用了一条学习曲线来区分真实的和漂绿的。我们还看到投资者获得的有关公司的信息发生了巨大变化。公司已经意识到，如果他们不发布企业可持续发展报告，他们的交易价格将低于发布报告的同行。因此，从投资者的角度来看，数据的透明度和爆炸式增长是巨大的。突然间，你可以编纂所有这些我们曾经只想到的因素。但ESG永远是一个混乱的过程。其中总会有这种解释性的元素。</blockquote> Yet despite being the global head of ESG for your firm, you’re overweight the energy sector.<blockquote>然而，尽管您是贵公司 ESG 的全球主管，但您却是能源行业的跑赢大盘。</blockquote> Renewables companies have done well, despite the fact that we had four years under an administration that wasn’t focused on these themes. It’s really great that ESG investors today have an ally in the White House. Yet you don’t need mandates from Washington politicians to get going. Investors realized that the future is renewables and are slowly phasing out traditional commodities. But we still need to keep the lights on, and things going, to get to carbon neutrality. There’s an opportunity to buy traditional energy companies that are setting more-aggressive goals of environmental compliance, but are also providing much-needed fuels to keep, to reintegrate, the economy, because we aren’t at the point where we can do everything on wind and solar. So, we’re actually overweight energy, which draws a lot of raised eyebrows. I feel totally comfortable with that because energy companies are essentially reinventing themselves.<blockquote>尽管我们执政的四年并没有关注这些主题，但可再生能源公司的表现仍然不错。如今，ESG 投资者在白宫有了盟友，这真是太好了。然而，你并不需要华盛顿政客的授权就能开始行动。投资者意识到未来是可再生能源，并正在慢慢淘汰传统商品。但我们仍然需要保持灯亮着，事情继续进行，以实现碳中和。有机会收购传统能源公司，这些公司正在制定更积极的环境合规目标，同时也在提供急需的燃料，以保持和重新整合经济，因为我们还没有到可以在风能和太阳能上做所有事情的地步。所以，我们实际上是跑赢大盘能源公司，这引起了很多人的惊讶。我对此感到非常满意，因为能源公司本质上是在重塑自己。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden Stock Market Won’t Be Like the Trump Market. What to Expect.<blockquote>拜登股市不会像特朗普股市那样。期待什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden Stock Market Won’t Be Like the Trump Market. What to Expect.<blockquote>拜登股市不会像特朗普股市那样。期待什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-08 10:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt’s time to buycyclicalsandsmall-caps. That’s been a bold call, especially for fund managers who have acquired a “hot-stove mentality” after being burned over the past 10 years. But this time, says Savita Subramanian,Bank of America’swidely followed strategist, outperformance could last for years, as it did after the tech bubble burst. Finding promising investments is even more important today, especially if the market itself delivers lackluster returns, as she expects.<blockquote>是时候买入周期性股票和小盘股了。这是一个大胆的看涨期权，尤其是对于那些在过去 10 年被烧伤后形成了 “火炉心态 ”的基金经理来说。但这一次，美国银行（Bank of America）广泛关注的策略师萨维塔-苏布拉马尼安（Savita Subramanian）说，优异的表现可能会持续数年，就像科技泡沫破裂后一样。如今，寻找有前途的投资更加重要，尤其是如果市场本身像她预期的那样提供乏善可陈的回报的话。</blockquote> A double major in math and philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley, Subramanian is a heavy user of quant data in her studies of investor sentiment, and has been chief strategist since 2011. She recently chatted withBarron’sabout howthe Biden administrationwill achieve economic growth, and why—despite being the firm’s head of ESG—she’s recommending energy stocks.<blockquote>Subramanian 拥有加州大学伯克利分校数学和哲学双学位，在研究投资者情绪时大量使用量化数据，自 2011 年以来一直担任首席策略师。她最近和巴伦关于拜登政府将如何实现经济增长，以及尽管身为公司环境、社会和治理负责人，她为何推荐能源股。</blockquote> Read the following edited excerpts for more.<blockquote>阅读以下编辑过的摘录了解更多信息。</blockquote> Barron’s: President Biden has issued dozens of executive orders. How should investors digest these?<blockquote>巴伦周刊：拜登总统已发布数十项行政命令。投资者该如何消化这些？</blockquote> Savita Subramanian:They represent a few thematic changes and a big break from the market leadership of the past four years. This administration is less focused on asset inflation and more on real inflation, in creating jobs and reinvigorating the real economy, rather than just bolstering stock market returns. From listening to this new administration’s rhetoric, they’re not looking at barometers like theS&amp;P 500index or investment returns as a metric of success or failure. Instead, they’re focused on addressing some of the bigger inequities in the market, like income inequality. That means we’re going to see less-great market returns, but probably a bigger return in the economy overall.<blockquote>萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚：它们代表了一些主题变化，以及与过去四年市场领先地位的重大突破。本届政府不太关注资产通胀，而更关注实际通胀，关注创造就业机会和重振实体经济，而不仅仅是提振股市回报。从新政府的言论来看，他们并没有将标准普尔 500 指数或投资回报率等晴雨表作为衡量成败的指标。相反，他们专注于解决市场上一些更大的不平等问题，如收入不平等。这意味着我们将看到不太理想的市场回报，但整体经济的回报可能会更大。</blockquote> Your market call is pretty tepid.<blockquote>你们的市场看涨期权相当不温不火。</blockquote> I’m one of the lowest forecasts on Wall Street. We’re looking for 3,800 on the S&amp;P 500. It’s a very tech-growth-heavy benchmark. We’re looking for S&amp;P earnings to grow by about 20% this year. Obviously, we’re expecting to see some multiple compression. We’re expecting to see a very strong economic recovery. Our economists Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris are looking for 6% growth on U.S. gross domestic product. Most of that recovery should take place in the second half of this year as we see broad dispersal of vaccines and a more concerted, coordinated reopening. It’s hard to be bearish, given all the stimulus.<blockquote>我是华尔街预测最低的人之一。我们在标普500找3800人。这是一个非常注重技术增长的基准。我们预计标准普尔今年的盈利将增长 20% 左右。显然，我们期待看到一些多重压缩。我们预计经济复苏将非常强劲。我们的经济学家米歇尔·迈耶和伊桑·哈里斯预计美国国内生产总值将增长 6%。大部分复苏应该会在今年下半年发生，因为我们看到疫苗的广泛传播和更加一致、协调的重新开放。鉴于所有的刺激措施，很难看跌。</blockquote> Here’s why we’re not bearish: Interest rates are superlow, U.S. large-caps offer great yields, relative to bonds, and the Biden administration is laser-focused on the economy. It’s hard to see a recession-driven bear market.<blockquote>这就是我们不看跌的原因： 利率超低，相对于债券，美国大盘股的收益率很高，而且拜登政府非常关注经济。很难看到经济衰退驱动的熊市。</blockquote> The market was gripped by the spectacular rise ofGameStop[ticker: GME]. What does it mean?<blockquote>市场被股价的惊人上涨所吸引游戏驿站[股票代码：GME]。这是什么意思？</blockquote> We’re seeing more and more of the decoupling of fundamentals from performance. It’s always troubling to see, and it smacks of speculation. A couple of things: All of the action seemed to be focused on the small-cap space. Companies with high short interest in the S&amp;P 500 behaved normally, but those in theRussell 2000behaved very atypically. The good news is this seems to be localized in smaller-market-cap stocks, so the impact is less extreme, and it’s emblematic of more speculative drama in the market, rather than in more fundamental investing.<blockquote>我们看到越来越多的基本面与业绩脱钩。这总是令人不安，而且有点像猜测。有几件事：所有的行动似乎都集中在小盘股领域。在标普500拥有高空头利息的公司表现正常，但在 theRussell 2000 指数中的公司表现非常不典型。好消息是，这似乎局限于小市值股票，因此影响不那么极端，这象征着市场上更多的投机戏剧，而不是更基本面的投资。</blockquote> What would make you more bearish?<blockquote>什么会让你更加悲观？</blockquote> If we saw interest rates rise meaningfully from here. A big portion of the investor base today is retirees looking for income, forced to buy the S&amp;P 500. We’ve got really tight pockets of the market where you could potentially see an inflation spike. Two years ago, we polled all of our stock analysts to ask where they were seeing input cost pressure and pricing power, and the only two sectors they cited were utilities and health care. We did the same report a couple of months ago, and almost every analyst cited inflationary pressure.<blockquote>如果我们看到利率从这里大幅上升。如今，很大一部分投资者是寻求收入的退休人员，他们被迫购买标普500。我们的市场非常紧张，有可能出现通胀飙升。两年前，我们对所有股票分析师进行了调查，询问他们在哪些方面看到了投入成本压力和定价权，他们提到的唯一两个行业是公用事业和医疗保健。几个月前我们也做了同样的报告，几乎每个分析师都提到了通胀压力。</blockquote> Today, close to 70% of stocks pay a dividend that’s higher than the 10-year Treasury, which is very close to a record high. [The 10-year currently yields 1.12%.] If rates rise to 1.75%, which our economist is expecting, that proportion drops to 44%. And all of a sudden, that story vaporizes. That’s the swing factor. And that’s one reason we’re less optimistic about equities, not to mention all of the speculations we see.<blockquote>如今，近 70% 的股票支付的股息高于 10 年期国债，非常接近历史新高。[10 年期国债目前收益率为 1.12%。]如果利率升至 1.75%（正如我们的经济学家所预期的那样），该比例将降至 44%。突然间，这个故事烟消云散了。这就是摇摆因素。这也是我们对股市不太乐观的原因之一，更不用说我们看到的所有猜测了。</blockquote> The similarities between today and 2000 is democratization and retail participation in the market, the decoupling of fundamentals from price. The last time we’ve seen earnings surprises met with negative reactions, as we’re seeing now, was in March 2000. The other similarity is our sell-side indicator, a very good market-timing model that looks at Wall Street’s average recommendation to stocks in a balanced fund. That model is now spitting out close to 60%, which would be a sell signal, close to 2007 and almost exactly at the same level as March 2000. All of these ducks are lining up.<blockquote>今天和2000年的相似之处是民主化和零售参与市场，基本面与价格脱钩。我们上一次看到盈利惊喜遭遇负面反应，就像我们现在看到的那样，还是在 2000 年 3 月。另一个相似之处是我们的卖方指标，这是一个非常好的市场择时模型，可以查看华尔街对平衡基金中股票的平均推荐。该模型目前销量接近 60%，这将是一个卖出信号，接近 2007 年，几乎与 2000 年 3 月的水平完全相同。所有这些鸭子都在排队。</blockquote> So, what should investors do?<blockquote>那么，投资者应该怎么做呢？</blockquote> Focus on GDP-sensitive areas of the market that haven’t done well for almost a decade. Our sector overweights include financials, energy, industrials, and health care. We find some pent-up manufacturing demand from an unprecedented paralysis in the manufacturing and services economy. We’re more bullish on business investment than on consumption of durable goods. Within consumption, we’re more bullish on a pickup in consumer services than a pickup in consumer goods. Based on our credit-card data for 2020, unlike in the usual economic recession, spending trends remain strong. We had the fastest bear market. The Fed, fiscal policy, and Corporate America basically stepped up and staved off what could have been a deeper recession. Spending took place in home goods and the higher-end consumption areas of the market. Those areas could be at risk in 2021. Our sector underweights are communication services, which are half-growth, half-bond proxies; real estate; and staples.<blockquote>重点关注近十年来表现不佳的对 GDP 敏感的市场领域。我们增持的行业包括金融、能源、工业和医疗保健。我们从制造业和服务业经济前所未有的瘫痪中发现了一些被压抑的制造业需求。我们更看好商业投资，而不是耐用品消费。在消费方面，我们更看好消费服务的回升，而不是消费品的回升。根据我们 2020 年的信用卡数据，与通常的经济衰退不同，支出趋势仍然强劲。我们经历了最快的熊市。美联储、财政政策和美国企业基本上都加大了力度，避免了可能更严重的衰退。消费发生在家居用品和市场的高端消费领域。这些领域在 2021 年可能面临风险。我们的行业减持是通信服务，这是一半增长、一半债券代理；房地产；和订书钉。</blockquote> In 14 of the past 14 recessions, the recovery was led by value and cyclical. So, we’re going to see a value cycle. Growth stocks are overly discounting this low-rate, low-growth environment. An easier call to make than value is another area nobody wants to touch—smaller companies, because of liquidity, because of the oligopolistic market. We could be at the start of a longer-lived small-cap cycle, which tends to last eight to 10 years.<blockquote>在过去的14次衰退中，有14次是由价值和周期性推动的。因此，我们将看到一个价值周期。成长型股票过度低估了这种低利率、低增长的环境。比价值更容易实现的看涨期权是另一个没人愿意触及的领域——小公司，因为流动性，因为寡头垄断市场。我们可能正处于一个持续时间更长的小盘股周期的开始，这个周期往往会持续八到十年。</blockquote> What about the technology and megacap parts of the market?<blockquote>市场的技术和巨型部分呢？</blockquote> Coming out of the tech bubble, value outperformed growth for at least seven years. Some cycles last awhile.<blockquote>走出科技泡沫后，价值至少在七年内跑赢了增长。有些周期会持续一段时间。</blockquote> What surprises me is how reluctant fund managers or institutional investors are to shed exposure to that past leadership when we’re at what looks like a break point in terms of the economy and the political environment. It’s the hot-stove mentality, because every year since 2008, where anyone has bet on rising interest rates and inflation, they’ve basically been smacked down.<blockquote>令我惊讶的是，当我们正处于经济和政治环境的转折点时，基金经理或机构投资者是多么不愿意放弃与过去领导层的接触。这是一种热炉心态，因为自 2008 年以来，每年有人都在押注利率和通货膨胀上升，但基本上都被打爆了。</blockquote> More immediately, any potential reversal in Trump-era corporate tax cuts, which would make sense to fund all of the growth, would hit communication services and information technology: the two leadership sectors most overweighted by fund managers.<blockquote>更直接的是，特朗普时代企业减税政策的任何潜在逆转都将打击通信服务和信息技术：基金经理最增持的两个领先行业。</blockquote> Let’s talk about ESG.<blockquote>我们来谈谈ESG。</blockquote> We’ve really seen a demonstrable and well-articulated pivot of Corporate America in terms of how they’re aiming to please. They’ve gone from shareholder to stakeholder returns. That’s huge. They’re articulating and essentially promising us they care about the communities in which they operate, their employees, and customer satisfaction beyond the bottom line. I don’t think it’s anticapitalist. But I think it’s a new way of thinking about capitalism. The corporate stimulus during Covid-19 was sizable, equivalent on some level to fiscal and Fed stimulus. It was at least $1 trillion of support from Corporate America. Companies repurposed manufacturing to create ventilators, engaged in loan forbearance for consumers, made monetary donations. My own company initiated layoff freezes. It quelled a lot of consumer fears.<blockquote>我们确实看到了美国企业在如何取悦他人方面的明显且清晰的转变。它们已经从股东回报变成了利益相关者回报。太大了。他们清楚地表明，他们关心的是他们经营所在的社区、员工和客户满意度，而不仅仅是底线。我不认为这是反资本主义的。但我认为这是一种思考资本主义的新方式。新冠肺炎期间的企业刺激措施规模相当大，在某种程度上相当于财政和美联储刺激措施。美国企业至少提供了1万亿美元的支持。公司重新利用制造业制造呼吸机，为消费者提供贷款延期，并捐款。我自己的公司发起了裁员冻结。它平息了许多消费者的恐惧。</blockquote> There’s a learning curve that has been adopted by investors in terms of separating the real from the greenwashing. We’re also seeing big changes in the information that investors are being given about companies. Companies have realized that if they don’t publish a corporate sustainability report, they’re going to trade at a discount to their peer that does. So, that transparency and explosion in data is huge from an investor perspective. All of a sudden, you can codify all of these factors we once only thought about. But ESG is always going to be a messy process. There’s always going to be this interpretive element to it.<blockquote>投资者已经采用了一条学习曲线来区分真实的和漂绿的。我们还看到投资者获得的有关公司的信息发生了巨大变化。公司已经意识到，如果他们不发布企业可持续发展报告，他们的交易价格将低于发布报告的同行。因此，从投资者的角度来看，数据的透明度和爆炸式增长是巨大的。突然间，你可以编纂所有这些我们曾经只想到的因素。但ESG永远是一个混乱的过程。其中总会有这种解释性的元素。</blockquote> Yet despite being the global head of ESG for your firm, you’re overweight the energy sector.<blockquote>然而，尽管您是贵公司 ESG 的全球主管，但您却是能源行业的跑赢大盘。</blockquote> Renewables companies have done well, despite the fact that we had four years under an administration that wasn’t focused on these themes. It’s really great that ESG investors today have an ally in the White House. Yet you don’t need mandates from Washington politicians to get going. Investors realized that the future is renewables and are slowly phasing out traditional commodities. But we still need to keep the lights on, and things going, to get to carbon neutrality. There’s an opportunity to buy traditional energy companies that are setting more-aggressive goals of environmental compliance, but are also providing much-needed fuels to keep, to reintegrate, the economy, because we aren’t at the point where we can do everything on wind and solar. So, we’re actually overweight energy, which draws a lot of raised eyebrows. I feel totally comfortable with that because energy companies are essentially reinventing themselves.<blockquote>尽管我们执政的四年并没有关注这些主题，但可再生能源公司的表现仍然不错。如今，ESG 投资者在白宫有了盟友，这真是太好了。然而，你并不需要华盛顿政客的授权就能开始行动。投资者意识到未来是可再生能源，并正在慢慢淘汰传统商品。但我们仍然需要保持灯亮着，事情继续进行，以实现碳中和。有机会收购传统能源公司，这些公司正在制定更积极的环境合规目标，同时也在提供急需的燃料，以保持和重新整合经济，因为我们还没有到可以在风能和太阳能上做所有事情的地步。所以，我们实际上是跑赢大盘能源公司，这引起了很多人的惊讶。我对此感到非常满意，因为能源公司本质上是在重塑自己。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-biden-stock-market-wont-be-like-the-trump-market-what-to-expect-51612535400?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-biden-stock-market-wont-be-like-the-trump-market-what-to-expect-51612535400?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132830852","content_text":"It’s time to buycyclicalsandsmall-caps. That’s been a bold call, especially for fund managers who have acquired a “hot-stove mentality” after being burned over the past 10 years. But this time, says Savita Subramanian,Bank of America’swidely followed strategist, outperformance could last for years, as it did after the tech bubble burst. Finding promising investments is even more important today, especially if the market itself delivers lackluster returns, as she expects.\nA double major in math and philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley, Subramanian is a heavy user of quant data in her studies of investor sentiment, and has been chief strategist since 2011. She recently chatted withBarron’sabout howthe Biden administrationwill achieve economic growth, and why—despite being the firm’s head of ESG—she’s recommending energy stocks.\nRead the following edited excerpts for more.\nBarron’s: President Biden has issued dozens of executive orders. How should investors digest these?\nSavita Subramanian:They represent a few thematic changes and a big break from the market leadership of the past four years. This administration is less focused on asset inflation and more on real inflation, in creating jobs and reinvigorating the real economy, rather than just bolstering stock market returns. From listening to this new administration’s rhetoric, they’re not looking at barometers like theS&P 500index or investment returns as a metric of success or failure. Instead, they’re focused on addressing some of the bigger inequities in the market, like income inequality. That means we’re going to see less-great market returns, but probably a bigger return in the economy overall.\nYour market call is pretty tepid.\nI’m one of the lowest forecasts on Wall Street. We’re looking for 3,800 on the S&P 500. It’s a very tech-growth-heavy benchmark. We’re looking for S&P earnings to grow by about 20% this year. Obviously, we’re expecting to see some multiple compression. We’re expecting to see a very strong economic recovery. Our economists Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris are looking for 6% growth on U.S. gross domestic product. Most of that recovery should take place in the second half of this year as we see broad dispersal of vaccines and a more concerted, coordinated reopening. It’s hard to be bearish, given all the stimulus.\nHere’s why we’re not bearish: Interest rates are superlow, U.S. large-caps offer great yields, relative to bonds, and the Biden administration is laser-focused on the economy. It’s hard to see a recession-driven bear market.\nThe market was gripped by the spectacular rise ofGameStop[ticker: GME]. What does it mean?\nWe’re seeing more and more of the decoupling of fundamentals from performance. It’s always troubling to see, and it smacks of speculation. A couple of things: All of the action seemed to be focused on the small-cap space. Companies with high short interest in the S&P 500 behaved normally, but those in theRussell 2000behaved very atypically. The good news is this seems to be localized in smaller-market-cap stocks, so the impact is less extreme, and it’s emblematic of more speculative drama in the market, rather than in more fundamental investing.\nWhat would make you more bearish?\nIf we saw interest rates rise meaningfully from here. A big portion of the investor base today is retirees looking for income, forced to buy the S&P 500. We’ve got really tight pockets of the market where you could potentially see an inflation spike. Two years ago, we polled all of our stock analysts to ask where they were seeing input cost pressure and pricing power, and the only two sectors they cited were utilities and health care. We did the same report a couple of months ago, and almost every analyst cited inflationary pressure.\nToday, close to 70% of stocks pay a dividend that’s higher than the 10-year Treasury, which is very close to a record high. [The 10-year currently yields 1.12%.] If rates rise to 1.75%, which our economist is expecting, that proportion drops to 44%. And all of a sudden, that story vaporizes. That’s the swing factor. And that’s one reason we’re less optimistic about equities, not to mention all of the speculations we see.\nThe similarities between today and 2000 is democratization and retail participation in the market, the decoupling of fundamentals from price. The last time we’ve seen earnings surprises met with negative reactions, as we’re seeing now, was in March 2000. The other similarity is our sell-side indicator, a very good market-timing model that looks at Wall Street’s average recommendation to stocks in a balanced fund. That model is now spitting out close to 60%, which would be a sell signal, close to 2007 and almost exactly at the same level as March 2000. All of these ducks are lining up.\nSo, what should investors do?\nFocus on GDP-sensitive areas of the market that haven’t done well for almost a decade. Our sector overweights include financials, energy, industrials, and health care. We find some pent-up manufacturing demand from an unprecedented paralysis in the manufacturing and services economy. We’re more bullish on business investment than on consumption of durable goods. Within consumption, we’re more bullish on a pickup in consumer services than a pickup in consumer goods. Based on our credit-card data for 2020, unlike in the usual economic recession, spending trends remain strong. We had the fastest bear market. The Fed, fiscal policy, and Corporate America basically stepped up and staved off what could have been a deeper recession. Spending took place in home goods and the higher-end consumption areas of the market. Those areas could be at risk in 2021. Our sector underweights are communication services, which are half-growth, half-bond proxies; real estate; and staples.\nIn 14 of the past 14 recessions, the recovery was led by value and cyclical. So, we’re going to see a value cycle. Growth stocks are overly discounting this low-rate, low-growth environment. An easier call to make than value is another area nobody wants to touch—smaller companies, because of liquidity, because of the oligopolistic market. We could be at the start of a longer-lived small-cap cycle, which tends to last eight to 10 years.\nWhat about the technology and megacap parts of the market?\nComing out of the tech bubble, value outperformed growth for at least seven years. Some cycles last awhile.\nWhat surprises me is how reluctant fund managers or institutional investors are to shed exposure to that past leadership when we’re at what looks like a break point in terms of the economy and the political environment. It’s the hot-stove mentality, because every year since 2008, where anyone has bet on rising interest rates and inflation, they’ve basically been smacked down.\nMore immediately, any potential reversal in Trump-era corporate tax cuts, which would make sense to fund all of the growth, would hit communication services and information technology: the two leadership sectors most overweighted by fund managers.\nLet’s talk about ESG.\nWe’ve really seen a demonstrable and well-articulated pivot of Corporate America in terms of how they’re aiming to please. They’ve gone from shareholder to stakeholder returns. That’s huge. They’re articulating and essentially promising us they care about the communities in which they operate, their employees, and customer satisfaction beyond the bottom line. I don’t think it’s anticapitalist. But I think it’s a new way of thinking about capitalism. The corporate stimulus during Covid-19 was sizable, equivalent on some level to fiscal and Fed stimulus. It was at least $1 trillion of support from Corporate America. Companies repurposed manufacturing to create ventilators, engaged in loan forbearance for consumers, made monetary donations. My own company initiated layoff freezes. It quelled a lot of consumer fears.\nThere’s a learning curve that has been adopted by investors in terms of separating the real from the greenwashing. We’re also seeing big changes in the information that investors are being given about companies. Companies have realized that if they don’t publish a corporate sustainability report, they’re going to trade at a discount to their peer that does. So, that transparency and explosion in data is huge from an investor perspective. All of a sudden, you can codify all of these factors we once only thought about. But ESG is always going to be a messy process. There’s always going to be this interpretive element to it.\nYet despite being the global head of ESG for your firm, you’re overweight the energy sector.\nRenewables companies have done well, despite the fact that we had four years under an administration that wasn’t focused on these themes. It’s really great that ESG investors today have an ally in the White House. Yet you don’t need mandates from Washington politicians to get going. Investors realized that the future is renewables and are slowly phasing out traditional commodities. But we still need to keep the lights on, and things going, to get to carbon neutrality. There’s an opportunity to buy traditional energy companies that are setting more-aggressive goals of environmental compliance, but are also providing much-needed fuels to keep, to reintegrate, the economy, because we aren’t at the point where we can do everything on wind and solar. So, we’re actually overweight energy, which draws a lot of raised eyebrows. I feel totally comfortable with that because energy companies are essentially reinventing themselves.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/389630825"}