Dangerous now?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-02-17

Dangerous now?

Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>

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With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>那么，收益率上升的痛苦（这使得更难证明过高的股票估值是合理的）何时开始产生影响呢？全球战略主管肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 写道，随着 10 年期国债收益率回升至 1.2% 以上，1.5% 区域（相当于标准普尔 500 指数的股息收益率）可能很快就会面临挑战杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 在周二的一份报告中。</blockquote> That event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&amp;P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.<blockquote>他写道，这一事件 “可能会与市盈率较高的股票的估值以及标普500相对于纳斯达克 100 指数等估值较高的指数的相对表现的首次考验同时发生”，他指的是市盈率（P/E），这是衡量股市估值的常见指标。</blockquote> Historically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.<blockquote>从历史上看，低国债利率被视为股票高估值的理由，因为投资者别无选择，只能寻求股票回报。策略师警告称，虽然美国国债收益率仍然很低，但走高可能会威胁到估值最紧张的股票。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote> But Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.<blockquote>但达比进行了更深入的探讨，他认为，随着投资者适应美联储的平均通胀目标设置，金融市场很可能已经经历了 “政权更迭”，即央行允许通胀超过其目标，让经济过热，然后再采取行动收紧政策。</blockquote> That regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.<blockquote>在流动性充裕的预期下，这种政权更迭可以从垃圾债券或高收益公司债券的持续上涨中得到说明。他指出，这些收益率大幅下降，甚至历史上首次在通胀调整后低于美国国债收益率。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.<blockquote>与此同时，分析师表示，美元虽然在 2021 年初出现了小幅反弹，但在经历了 2020 年的大幅下滑后，尚未出现令人信服的好转。美元走软通常被视为有利于股市，有助于保持全球金融状况宽松。</blockquote> “In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”<blockquote>“达比说：”实际上，对股票投资者来说，最糟糕的情况是（美国国债）抛售，同时信用利差扩大和美元走强。“迄今为止，美国国债收益率的上升未能阻止美元的下跌--实际利率仍然为负”。</blockquote> So what should stock-market investors expect?<blockquote>那么股市投资者应该期待什么呢？</blockquote> First off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).<blockquote>他说，首先是 “收益率要高得多”，并指出杰富瑞的所有三个指标都指向了 10 年期国债收益率的方向--10 年期与 2 年期美国国债收益率曲线与通胀预期；收益率曲线与美国M1货币供应量；以及收益率曲线与铜/金比率——都是垂直的，尤其是货币供应量和收益率曲线之间的关系（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd2d670eb3878e88a74b7cef6e07a1a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1010\"><blockquote></blockquote> Jefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.<blockquote>达比指出，杰富瑞预计 10 年期国债收益率到年底将达到 2%。</blockquote> Secondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&amp;P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield&nbsp;plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.<blockquote>其次，达比表示，随着 30 年期国债收益率暴跌，标普500高市盈率股票出现了大幅绝对回报（见下图），并指出科技股集中的纳斯达克 100 指数也是如此。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa66391315c6c3febff9d67944902f7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1012\"><blockquote></blockquote> “These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.<blockquote>“他说：”这些资产对美国长期利率上升最为敏感，并指出股票是长期资产。</blockquote> The 30-year yield&nbsp;jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close&nbsp;as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&amp;P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;shed 0.3%.<blockquote>周二，30年期国债收益率上涨8.6个基点，至一年多高点2.089%，而10年期国债收益率上涨9.8个基点，至1.298%。道琼斯工业平均指数在上周五创纪录的收盘价基础上，在波动的交易中勉强上涨了 64.35 点，涨幅为 0.2%，因为投资者结束了为期三天的周末假期。标普500收盘下跌 0.1%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.3%。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the stock market’s ‘worst-case’ scenario depends on these 3 ingredients<blockquote>为什么股市的“最坏情况”取决于这三个因素</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-17 15:12\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies<blockquote>杰富瑞：收益率上升、信贷利差扩大和美元升值将带来麻烦</blockquote> Investors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.<blockquote>投资者对国债收益率感到担忧，并想知道加息何时会开始抑制股市的涨势，尽管他们在周二还没有担心到足以阻止主要基准再次创下历史新高。</blockquote> So when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>那么，收益率上升的痛苦（这使得更难证明过高的股票估值是合理的）何时开始产生影响呢？全球战略主管肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 写道，随着 10 年期国债收益率回升至 1.2% 以上，1.5% 区域（相当于标准普尔 500 指数的股息收益率）可能很快就会面临挑战杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 在周二的一份报告中。</blockquote> That event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&amp;P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.<blockquote>他写道，这一事件 “可能会与市盈率较高的股票的估值以及标普500相对于纳斯达克 100 指数等估值较高的指数的相对表现的首次考验同时发生”，他指的是市盈率（P/E），这是衡量股市估值的常见指标。</blockquote> Historically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.<blockquote>从历史上看，低国债利率被视为股票高估值的理由，因为投资者别无选择，只能寻求股票回报。策略师警告称，虽然美国国债收益率仍然很低，但走高可能会威胁到估值最紧张的股票。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote> But Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.<blockquote>但达比进行了更深入的探讨，他认为，随着投资者适应美联储的平均通胀目标设置，金融市场很可能已经经历了 “政权更迭”，即央行允许通胀超过其目标，让经济过热，然后再采取行动收紧政策。</blockquote> That regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.<blockquote>在流动性充裕的预期下，这种政权更迭可以从垃圾债券或高收益公司债券的持续上涨中得到说明。他指出，这些收益率大幅下降，甚至历史上首次在通胀调整后低于美国国债收益率。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.<blockquote>与此同时，分析师表示，美元虽然在 2021 年初出现了小幅反弹，但在经历了 2020 年的大幅下滑后，尚未出现令人信服的好转。美元走软通常被视为有利于股市，有助于保持全球金融状况宽松。</blockquote> “In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”<blockquote>“达比说：”实际上，对股票投资者来说，最糟糕的情况是（美国国债）抛售，同时信用利差扩大和美元走强。“迄今为止，美国国债收益率的上升未能阻止美元的下跌--实际利率仍然为负”。</blockquote> So what should stock-market investors expect?<blockquote>那么股市投资者应该期待什么呢？</blockquote> First off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).<blockquote>他说，首先是 “收益率要高得多”，并指出杰富瑞的所有三个指标都指向了 10 年期国债收益率的方向--10 年期与 2 年期美国国债收益率曲线与通胀预期；收益率曲线与美国M1货币供应量；以及收益率曲线与铜/金比率——都是垂直的，尤其是货币供应量和收益率曲线之间的关系（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd2d670eb3878e88a74b7cef6e07a1a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1010\"><blockquote></blockquote> Jefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.<blockquote>达比指出，杰富瑞预计 10 年期国债收益率到年底将达到 2%。</blockquote> Secondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&amp;P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield&nbsp;plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.<blockquote>其次，达比表示，随着 30 年期国债收益率暴跌，标普500高市盈率股票出现了大幅绝对回报（见下图），并指出科技股集中的纳斯达克 100 指数也是如此。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa66391315c6c3febff9d67944902f7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1012\"><blockquote></blockquote> “These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.<blockquote>“他说：”这些资产对美国长期利率上升最为敏感，并指出股票是长期资产。</blockquote> The 30-year yield&nbsp;jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close&nbsp;as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&amp;P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;shed 0.3%.<blockquote>周二，30年期国债收益率上涨8.6个基点，至一年多高点2.089%，而10年期国债收益率上涨9.8个基点，至1.298%。道琼斯工业平均指数在上周五创纪录的收盘价基础上，在波动的交易中勉强上涨了 64.35 点，涨幅为 0.2%，因为投资者结束了为期三天的周末假期。标普500收盘下跌 0.1%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.3%。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-combo-would-be-worst-case-scenario-for-stock-market-investors-11613505230?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-combo-would-be-worst-case-scenario-for-stock-market-investors-11613505230?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1137917622","content_text":"Rising yields, widening credit spreads and rising dollar would spell trouble: Jefferies\nInvestors are fretting over Treasury yields and wondering when a rate rise could start to crimp a stock-market rally, though they weren’t yet worried enough Tuesday to prevent major benchmarks from notching another round of all-time peaks.\nSo when does the pain of rising yields, which makes it harder to justify stretched equity valuations, start to make a difference? With the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moving back above 1.2%, a challenge of the 1.5% area, which is the equivalent of the dividend yield on the S&P 500,could soon be in store, wrote Sean Darby, global head of strategy at Jefferies, in a Tuesday note.\nThat event “will probably coincide with the first test for the valuations of the higher PE stocks and the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus more loftier valued indices such as the Nasdaq-100,” he wrote, referring to the P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, a common measure of stock market valuations.\nHistorically, low Treasury rates have been seen justifying lofty valuations for equities, as investors have little choice but to look to stocks for returns. While Treasury yields remain low, the move higher could threaten equities with the most stretched valuations, strategists have warned. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.\nBut Darby delves deeper, arguing that financial markets have likely undergone a “regime change” as investors adapt to the Federal Reserve’s average-inflation targeting setup, which would see the central bank allow inflation to overshoot its target and the economy to run hot before moving to tighten policy.\nThat regime change amid expectations for abundant liquidity may be illustrated by the continued rally in junk, or high-yield, corporate bonds. Those yields have fallen sharply, even trading below Treasurys on an inflation-adjusted basis for the first time in history, he noted.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. dollar, while seeing a modest bounce to begin 2021, hasn’t yet staged a convincing turnaround after its steep 2020 slide, analysts said. A weaker dollar is generally seen as favorable for stocks by helping to keep global financial conditions loose.\n“In reality the worst case scenario for equity investors would be a selloff in [Treasurys] accompanied by widening credit spreads and a strong dollar,” Darby said. “To date, higher U’S’ bond yields have not been able to arrest the decline in the greenback — real interest rates are still negative.”\nSo what should stock-market investors expect?\nFirst off, “much higher yields,” he said, noting that all three of Jefferies’ indicators on the direction of the 10-year yield — the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. yield curve vs. inflation expectations; the yield curve vs. U.S. M1 money supply; and the yield curve vs. the copper/gold ratio — are all pointed vertical, particularly the relationship between money supply and the yield curve (see chart below).\n\nJefferies expects the 10-year yield to hit 2% by year-end, Darby noted.\nSecondly, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks in the S&P 500 saw a sharp absolute return as the 30-year Treasury yield plunged, Darby said (see chart below), noting the same was true for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq-100.\n\n“These are the most sensitive to higher U.S. long-term rates,” he said, noting that equities are long duration assets.\nThe 30-year yield jumped 8.6 basis points to a more-than-one-year high 2.089% Tuesday, while the 10-year yield rose 9.8 basis points to 1.298%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 64.35 points, or 0.2%, in choppy trade,building on last Friday’s record close as investors returned from a three-day holiday weekend. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/385622718"}