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The stock market is echoing 2009-10 — and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn<blockquote>分析师警告说，股市正在重蹈 2009-10 年的覆辙，这意味着回调可能即将到来</blockquote>

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In the 218 days after the March 9, 2009, low, the index rose 70%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>截至 2 月 2 日收盘（3 月 23 日低点 218 天后），标普500上涨了 71%。根据道琼斯市场数据，在2009年3月9日低点后的218天内，该指数上涨了70%。</blockquote> At this point in the post-2009 playbook, the S&amp;P 500 began a pullback. This time around, the S&amp;P 500 has continued to march higher, logging back-to-back record finishes on Thursday and Friday and was up 0.4% in early afternoon trade on Monday.<blockquote>在 2009 年后剧本的这一点上，标普500开始回调。这一次，标普500继续走高，周四和周五连续创下历史新高，周一午后早盘上涨0.4%。</blockquote> After a late January wobble tied to the trading frenzy around GameStop Corp.,stocks have enjoyed&nbsp;a broad February rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagewas up around 150 points, or 0.5%, on Monday, on track to top its record close from Jan. 20.<blockquote>在1月下旬与围绕游戏驿站公司的交易狂热有关的波动之后，股市在2月份享受了广泛的反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨约 150 点，即 0.5%，有望创下 1 月 20 日以来的历史收盘价。</blockquote> DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, who has regularly highlighted the “2009 playbook” since the March lows, noted last week that the 2010 pullback was pretty much a “textbook” affair, with the S&amp;P 500 falling 8.2% over 13 trading days. The index recovered over the following 30 trading days, ending March 2010 at new highs, he said.<blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）自 3 月份低点以来一直经常强调 “2009 年的剧本”，他上周指出，2010 年的回调几乎是一场 “教科书 ”事件，标普500在 13 个交易日中下跌了 8.2%。他说，该指数在接下来的 30 个交易日中有所回升，并在 2010 年 3 月创下新高。</blockquote> Colas said the observation wasn’t “so much a trading call as an illustration of what happens as we get deeper into a cyclical recovery.”<blockquote>科拉斯说，这一观察结果 “与其说是一个交易看涨期权，不如说是一个说明，当我们深入周期性复苏时会发生什么”。</blockquote> He noted that the 2020 chart has diverged from the 2009 path several times and might continue to do so in 2021, but argued that with so many observers looking for a pullback, the playbook might offer guidance “on what to expect&nbsp;and where to start buying.”<blockquote>他指出，2020 年的图表已经多次偏离 2009 年的路径，2021 年可能会继续偏离，但他认为，由于有这么多观察家在寻找回调，剧本可能会为 “预期什么以及从哪里开始买入 ”提供指导。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Dwyer highlighted another echo of 2010. He noted that since the start of earnings season, according to Refinitiv data, fourth-quarter 2020 year-over-year earnings have improved by 11.9 percentage points (from -10.3% to +1.6%), the fifth-largest improvement on record dating back to the third quarter of 2002 and matched only by the 2009-10 recovery.<blockquote>与此同时，德怀尔强调了2010年的另一个回声。他指出，自财报季开始以来，根据路孚特的数据，2020年第四季度盈利同比增长了11.9个百分点（从-10.3%增至+1.6%），这是自2002年第三季度以来的第五大增幅，仅次于2009-10年的复苏。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market is echoing 2009-10 — and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn<blockquote>分析师警告说，股市正在重蹈 2009-10 年的覆辙，这意味着回调可能即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market is echoing 2009-10 — and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn<blockquote>分析师警告说，股市正在重蹈 2009-10 年的覆辙，这意味着回调可能即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-09 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEconomy, markets ‘in a very different place than in 1999-2000’: Cannacord’s Dwyer<blockquote>经济和市场 “与 1999-2000 年截然不同”： Cannacord 的 Dwyer</blockquote> A highflying stock market is reminding nervous investors of the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, but they might be better off studying more recent history, analysts said.<blockquote>分析师表示，飙升的股市让紧张的投资者想起了 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂，但他们最好还是研究一下最近的历史。</blockquote> It is important to remember “that current Fed policy, absolute interest rates, the yield curve, credit trends and money availability are in a very different place than in 1999-2000,” wrote Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, in a Monday note.<blockquote>Canaccord Genuity 首席市场策略师托尼-德怀尔（Tony Dwyer）在周一的一份报告中写道，重要的是要记住 “当前的美联储政策、绝对利率、收益率曲线、信贷趋势和货币供应量与 1999-2000 年截然不同”。</blockquote> In addition, high valuations — measures of a stocks price relative to other metrics such as earnings — are being gauged against last year’s pandemic-inspired trough in profit rather than building on record earnings, as was the case in 2000, he said.<blockquote>此外，他说，高估值--衡量股票价格相对于收益等其他指标的指标--是根据去年大流行病引发的利润低谷来衡量的，而不是像 2000 年那样以创纪录的收益为基础。</blockquote> Dwyer said 2021 could instead play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections” along with a compression in price-to-earnings ratios that is likely to come from a historic surge in earnings per share rather than something more onerous.<blockquote>德怀尔说，2021 年可能会更像 2010 年的危机后情景，这将为市场指明 “稳健的一年 ”的道路，但由于 “上半年的多次调整 ”以及市盈率的压缩，市场将一路坎坷，而这很可能来自每股收益的历史性飙升，而不是更沉重的负担。</blockquote> Dwyer highlighted how the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;move off its March 23 pandemic low has echoed the index’s rebound off its March 2009 low (see chart below).<blockquote>德怀尔强调了标普500指数从 3 月 23 日大流行病低点的反弹是如何呼应该指数从 2009 年 3 月低点反弹的（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08505c0057deab4fab1d472343059fa9\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"441\">CANACCORD GENUITY<blockquote>CANACCORD GENUITY</blockquote> Through the Feb. 2 close — 218 days after the March 23 low — the S&amp;P 500 was up 71%. In the 218 days after the March 9, 2009, low, the index rose 70%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>截至 2 月 2 日收盘（3 月 23 日低点 218 天后），标普500上涨了 71%。根据道琼斯市场数据，在2009年3月9日低点后的218天内，该指数上涨了70%。</blockquote> At this point in the post-2009 playbook, the S&amp;P 500 began a pullback. This time around, the S&amp;P 500 has continued to march higher, logging back-to-back record finishes on Thursday and Friday and was up 0.4% in early afternoon trade on Monday.<blockquote>在 2009 年后剧本的这一点上，标普500开始回调。这一次，标普500继续走高，周四和周五连续创下历史新高，周一午后早盘上涨0.4%。</blockquote> After a late January wobble tied to the trading frenzy around GameStop Corp.,stocks have enjoyed&nbsp;a broad February rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagewas up around 150 points, or 0.5%, on Monday, on track to top its record close from Jan. 20.<blockquote>在1月下旬与围绕游戏驿站公司的交易狂热有关的波动之后，股市在2月份享受了广泛的反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨约 150 点，即 0.5%，有望创下 1 月 20 日以来的历史收盘价。</blockquote> DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, who has regularly highlighted the “2009 playbook” since the March lows, noted last week that the 2010 pullback was pretty much a “textbook” affair, with the S&amp;P 500 falling 8.2% over 13 trading days. The index recovered over the following 30 trading days, ending March 2010 at new highs, he said.<blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）自 3 月份低点以来一直经常强调 “2009 年的剧本”，他上周指出，2010 年的回调几乎是一场 “教科书 ”事件，标普500在 13 个交易日中下跌了 8.2%。他说，该指数在接下来的 30 个交易日中有所回升，并在 2010 年 3 月创下新高。</blockquote> Colas said the observation wasn’t “so much a trading call as an illustration of what happens as we get deeper into a cyclical recovery.”<blockquote>科拉斯说，这一观察结果 “与其说是一个交易看涨期权，不如说是一个说明，当我们深入周期性复苏时会发生什么”。</blockquote> He noted that the 2020 chart has diverged from the 2009 path several times and might continue to do so in 2021, but argued that with so many observers looking for a pullback, the playbook might offer guidance “on what to expect&nbsp;and where to start buying.”<blockquote>他指出，2020 年的图表已经多次偏离 2009 年的路径，2021 年可能会继续偏离，但他认为，由于有这么多观察家在寻找回调，剧本可能会为 “预期什么以及从哪里开始买入 ”提供指导。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Dwyer highlighted another echo of 2010. He noted that since the start of earnings season, according to Refinitiv data, fourth-quarter 2020 year-over-year earnings have improved by 11.9 percentage points (from -10.3% to +1.6%), the fifth-largest improvement on record dating back to the third quarter of 2002 and matched only by the 2009-10 recovery.<blockquote>与此同时，德怀尔强调了2010年的另一个回声。他指出，自财报季开始以来，根据路孚特的数据，2020年第四季度盈利同比增长了11.9个百分点（从-10.3%增至+1.6%），这是自2002年第三季度以来的第五大增幅，仅次于2009-10年的复苏。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-echoing-2009-10-and-that-means-a-pullback-could-be-near-analysts-warn-11612808035?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-echoing-2009-10-and-that-means-a-pullback-could-be-near-analysts-warn-11612808035?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2110032585","content_text":"Economy, markets ‘in a very different place than in 1999-2000’: Cannacord’s Dwyer\nA highflying stock market is reminding nervous investors of the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, but they might be better off studying more recent history, analysts said.\nIt is important to remember “that current Fed policy, absolute interest rates, the yield curve, credit trends and money availability are in a very different place than in 1999-2000,” wrote Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, in a Monday note.\nIn addition, high valuations — measures of a stocks price relative to other metrics such as earnings — are being gauged against last year’s pandemic-inspired trough in profit rather than building on record earnings, as was the case in 2000, he said.\nDwyer said 2021 could instead play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections” along with a compression in price-to-earnings ratios that is likely to come from a historic surge in earnings per share rather than something more onerous.\nDwyer highlighted how the S&P 500 move off its March 23 pandemic low has echoed the index’s rebound off its March 2009 low (see chart below).\nCANACCORD GENUITY\nThrough the Feb. 2 close — 218 days after the March 23 low — the S&P 500 was up 71%. In the 218 days after the March 9, 2009, low, the index rose 70%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nAt this point in the post-2009 playbook, the S&P 500 began a pullback. This time around, the S&P 500 has continued to march higher, logging back-to-back record finishes on Thursday and Friday and was up 0.4% in early afternoon trade on Monday.\nAfter a late January wobble tied to the trading frenzy around GameStop Corp.,stocks have enjoyed a broad February rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagewas up around 150 points, or 0.5%, on Monday, on track to top its record close from Jan. 20.\nDataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, who has regularly highlighted the “2009 playbook” since the March lows, noted last week that the 2010 pullback was pretty much a “textbook” affair, with the S&P 500 falling 8.2% over 13 trading days. The index recovered over the following 30 trading days, ending March 2010 at new highs, he said.\nColas said the observation wasn’t “so much a trading call as an illustration of what happens as we get deeper into a cyclical recovery.”\nHe noted that the 2020 chart has diverged from the 2009 path several times and might continue to do so in 2021, but argued that with so many observers looking for a pullback, the playbook might offer guidance “on what to expect and where to start buying.”\nMeanwhile, Dwyer highlighted another echo of 2010. 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