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2021-02-09
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The stock market is echoing 2009-10 — and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn<blockquote>分析师警告称，股市正在与2009-10年相呼应，这意味着回调可能即将到来</blockquote>
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In the 218 days after the March 9, 2009, low, the index rose 70%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月2日收盘（距3月23日低点218天），标普500上涨了71%。根据道琼斯市场数据，在2009年3月9日低点后的218天里，该指数上涨了70%。</blockquote></p><p> At this point in the post-2009 playbook, the S&P 500 began a pullback. This time around, the S&P 500 has continued to march higher, logging back-to-back record finishes on Thursday and Friday and was up 0.4% in early afternoon trade on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在2009年后的剧本中，标普500开始回调。这一次，标普500继续走高，周四和周五连续创下历史新高，周一下午早些时候上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> After a late January wobble tied to the trading frenzy around GameStop Corp.,stocks have enjoyed a broad February rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagewas up around 150 points, or 0.5%, on Monday, on track to top its record close from Jan. 20.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了1月下旬与游戏驿站公司交易狂潮相关的波动之后，股市在2月份出现了广泛的反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨约150点，即0.5%，有望突破1月20日以来的收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, who has regularly highlighted the “2009 playbook” since the March lows, noted last week that the 2010 pullback was pretty much a “textbook” affair, with the S&P 500 falling 8.2% over 13 trading days. The index recovered over the following 30 trading days, ending March 2010 at new highs, he said.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人Nicholas Colas自3月份低点以来经常强调“2009年剧本”，他上周指出，2010年的回调几乎是一次“教科书”事件，标普500在13个交易日内下跌了8.2%。他表示，该指数在接下来的30个交易日中有所回升，并在2010年3月创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> Colas said the observation wasn’t “so much a trading call as an illustration of what happens as we get deeper into a cyclical recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这一观察结果“与其说是一个交易看涨期权，不如说是说明了随着我们更深入地陷入周期性复苏时会发生什么。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the 2020 chart has diverged from the 2009 path several times and might continue to do so in 2021, but argued that with so many observers looking for a pullback, the playbook might offer guidance “on what to expect and where to start buying.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，2020年的图表已多次偏离2009年的路径，并可能在2021年继续如此，但他认为，由于如此多的观察家寻求回调，该剧本可能会提供“关于预期什么以及从哪里开始购买”的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Dwyer highlighted another echo of 2010. He noted that since the start of earnings season, according to Refinitiv data, fourth-quarter 2020 year-over-year earnings have improved by 11.9 percentage points (from -10.3% to +1.6%), the fifth-largest improvement on record dating back to the third quarter of 2002 and matched only by the 2009-10 recovery.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，德怀尔强调了2010年的另一个回声。他指出，根据Refinitiv的数据，自财报季开始以来，2020年第四季度的盈利同比增长了11.9个百分点（从-10.3%增至+1.6%），这是有记录以来第五大增幅。可以追溯到2002年第三季度，仅次于2009-10年的复苏。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market is echoing 2009-10 — and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn<blockquote>分析师警告称，股市正在与2009-10年相呼应，这意味着回调可能即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market is echoing 2009-10 — and that means a pullback could be near, analysts warn<blockquote>分析师警告称，股市正在与2009-10年相呼应，这意味着回调可能即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Economy, markets ‘in a very different place than in 1999-2000’: Cannacord’s Dwyer</p><p><blockquote>Cannacord的Dwyer：经济和市场“与1999-2000年截然不同”</blockquote></p><p> A highflying stock market is reminding nervous investors of the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, but they might be better off studying more recent history, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，飙升的股市让紧张的投资者想起了2000年互联网泡沫的破裂，但他们最好研究一下最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> It is important to remember “that current Fed policy, absolute interest rates, the yield curve, credit trends and money availability are in a very different place than in 1999-2000,” wrote Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity首席市场策略师托尼·德怀尔(Tony Dwyer)在一份报告中写道，重要的是要记住，“当前的美联储政策、绝对利率、收益率曲线、信贷趋势和货币供应量与1999-2000年截然不同”。周一笔记。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, high valuations — measures of a stocks price relative to other metrics such as earnings — are being gauged against last year’s pandemic-inspired trough in profit rather than building on record earnings, as was the case in 2000, he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他表示，高估值（衡量股价相对于盈利等其他指标的指标）是根据去年大流行引发的利润低谷来衡量的，而不是像2000年那样建立在创纪录的盈利基础上。</blockquote></p><p> Dwyer said 2021 could instead play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections” along with a compression in price-to-earnings ratios that is likely to come from a historic surge in earnings per share rather than something more onerous.</p><p><blockquote>德怀尔表示，2021年的表现可能更像2010年危机后的情景，这将为市场指明“稳健的一年”，但由于“上半年的多次调整”以及压缩，市场将经历坎坷。市盈率可能来自每股收益的历史性飙升，而不是更繁重的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Dwyer highlighted how the S&P 500 move off its March 23 pandemic low has echoed the index’s rebound off its March 2009 low (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>Dwyer强调了标普500如何脱离3月23日大流行低点与该指数从2009年3月低点反弹相呼应（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08505c0057deab4fab1d472343059fa9\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>CANACCORD GENUITY</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CANACCORD真品</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Through the Feb. 2 close — 218 days after the March 23 low — the S&P 500 was up 71%. In the 218 days after the March 9, 2009, low, the index rose 70%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月2日收盘（距3月23日低点218天），标普500上涨了71%。根据道琼斯市场数据，在2009年3月9日低点后的218天里，该指数上涨了70%。</blockquote></p><p> At this point in the post-2009 playbook, the S&P 500 began a pullback. This time around, the S&P 500 has continued to march higher, logging back-to-back record finishes on Thursday and Friday and was up 0.4% in early afternoon trade on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在2009年后的剧本中，标普500开始回调。这一次，标普500继续走高，周四和周五连续创下历史新高，周一下午早些时候上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> After a late January wobble tied to the trading frenzy around GameStop Corp.,stocks have enjoyed a broad February rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagewas up around 150 points, or 0.5%, on Monday, on track to top its record close from Jan. 20.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了1月下旬与游戏驿站公司交易狂潮相关的波动之后，股市在2月份出现了广泛的反弹。道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨约150点，即0.5%，有望突破1月20日以来的收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, who has regularly highlighted the “2009 playbook” since the March lows, noted last week that the 2010 pullback was pretty much a “textbook” affair, with the S&P 500 falling 8.2% over 13 trading days. The index recovered over the following 30 trading days, ending March 2010 at new highs, he said.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人Nicholas Colas自3月份低点以来经常强调“2009年剧本”，他上周指出，2010年的回调几乎是一次“教科书”事件，标普500在13个交易日内下跌了8.2%。他表示，该指数在接下来的30个交易日中有所回升，并在2010年3月创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> Colas said the observation wasn’t “so much a trading call as an illustration of what happens as we get deeper into a cyclical recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这一观察结果“与其说是一个交易看涨期权，不如说是说明了随着我们更深入地陷入周期性复苏时会发生什么。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the 2020 chart has diverged from the 2009 path several times and might continue to do so in 2021, but argued that with so many observers looking for a pullback, the playbook might offer guidance “on what to expect and where to start buying.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，2020年的图表已多次偏离2009年的路径，并可能在2021年继续如此，但他认为，由于如此多的观察家寻求回调，该剧本可能会提供“关于预期什么以及从哪里开始购买”的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Dwyer highlighted another echo of 2010. He noted that since the start of earnings season, according to Refinitiv data, fourth-quarter 2020 year-over-year earnings have improved by 11.9 percentage points (from -10.3% to +1.6%), the fifth-largest improvement on record dating back to the third quarter of 2002 and matched only by the 2009-10 recovery.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，德怀尔强调了2010年的另一个回声。他指出，根据Refinitiv的数据，自财报季开始以来，2020年第四季度的盈利同比增长了11.9个百分点（从-10.3%增至+1.6%），这是有记录以来第五大增幅。可以追溯到2002年第三季度，仅次于2009-10年的复苏。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-echoing-2009-10-and-that-means-a-pullback-could-be-near-analysts-warn-11612808035?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-echoing-2009-10-and-that-means-a-pullback-could-be-near-analysts-warn-11612808035?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2110032585","content_text":"Economy, markets ‘in a very different place than in 1999-2000’: Cannacord’s Dwyer\nA highflying stock market is reminding nervous investors of the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, but they might be better off studying more recent history, analysts said.\nIt is important to remember “that current Fed policy, absolute interest rates, the yield curve, credit trends and money availability are in a very different place than in 1999-2000,” wrote Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, in a Monday note.\nIn addition, high valuations — measures of a stocks price relative to other metrics such as earnings — are being gauged against last year’s pandemic-inspired trough in profit rather than building on record earnings, as was the case in 2000, he said.\nDwyer said 2021 could instead play out more like the postcrisis scenario seen in 2010, which would point the way to a “solid year” for the market, but with a bumpy ride thanks to “multiple first-half corrections” along with a compression in price-to-earnings ratios that is likely to come from a historic surge in earnings per share rather than something more onerous.\nDwyer highlighted how the S&P 500 move off its March 23 pandemic low has echoed the index’s rebound off its March 2009 low (see chart below).\nCANACCORD GENUITY\nThrough the Feb. 2 close — 218 days after the March 23 low — the S&P 500 was up 71%. In the 218 days after the March 9, 2009, low, the index rose 70%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nAt this point in the post-2009 playbook, the S&P 500 began a pullback. This time around, the S&P 500 has continued to march higher, logging back-to-back record finishes on Thursday and Friday and was up 0.4% in early afternoon trade on Monday.\nAfter a late January wobble tied to the trading frenzy around GameStop Corp.,stocks have enjoyed a broad February rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Averagewas up around 150 points, or 0.5%, on Monday, on track to top its record close from Jan. 20.\nDataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, who has regularly highlighted the “2009 playbook” since the March lows, noted last week that the 2010 pullback was pretty much a “textbook” affair, with the S&P 500 falling 8.2% over 13 trading days. The index recovered over the following 30 trading days, ending March 2010 at new highs, he said.\nColas said the observation wasn’t “so much a trading call as an illustration of what happens as we get deeper into a cyclical recovery.”\nHe noted that the 2020 chart has diverged from the 2009 path several times and might continue to do so in 2021, but argued that with so many observers looking for a pullback, the playbook might offer guidance “on what to expect and where to start buying.”\nMeanwhile, Dwyer highlighted another echo of 2010. He noted that since the start of earnings season, according to Refinitiv data, fourth-quarter 2020 year-over-year earnings have improved by 11.9 percentage points (from -10.3% to +1.6%), the fifth-largest improvement on record dating back to the third quarter of 2002 and matched only by the 2009-10 recovery.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/383373670"}
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