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DJ The Fed won't taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. Here's why.<blockquote>前白宫经济学家表示，美联储最早要到 2023 年才会缩减规模。原因如下。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":378143905,"tweetId":"378143905","gmtCreate":1619012924907,"gmtModify":1634289229853,"author":{"id":3572145943873750,"idStr":"3572145943873750","authorId":3572145943873750,"authorIdStr":"3572145943873750","name":"零舞酒妖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24812b09f0a7169228c83a42cd0ccb2d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[冷漠]&nbsp;[冷漠]&nbsp;[冷漠]&nbsp;mlm </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[冷漠]&nbsp;[冷漠]&nbsp;[冷漠]&nbsp;mlm </body></html>","text":"[冷漠] [冷漠] [冷漠] mlm","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378143905","repostId":2129876539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129876539","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619011048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129876539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DJ The Fed won't taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. Here's why.<blockquote>前白宫经济学家表示，美联储最早要到 2023 年才会缩减规模。原因如下。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129876539","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.\n\nBut that hasn't","content":"The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.<blockquote>第一季度是 10 年期国债自 1980 年以来表现最差的一年。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36576890f369dc2038b5b71019336f18\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"951\"><blockquote></blockquote> But that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March high. That is not all -- the U.S. dollar has softened, and the trading in eurodollar futures suggests reduced expectations for the number of interest-rate hikes between now and the end of 2024. \"That all kind of makes sense with a slower growth trajectory beyond this year,\" says Joe Lavorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.<blockquote>但最近情况并非如此，10 年期国债收益率较 3 月下旬的高点下滑了约 15 个基点。这还不是全部——美元已经走软，欧洲美元期货交易表明，从现在到 2024 年底加息次数的预期有所降低。Natixis 企业和投资银行美洲首席经济学家 Joe Lavorgna 表示：“随着今年之后增长轨迹放缓，这一切都有道理。”</blockquote> This year will see \"gangbusters growth,\" says Lavorgna, the chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration. \"If the economy was healthy before the [COVID-19] pandemic began, it would make sense the economy would come back quite quickly, and that's certainly been the case in the U.S.\" But Lavorgna distinguishes between gross domestic product growth and the U.S. jobs picture, which is still over 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.<blockquote>特朗普执政后期白宫国家经济委员会首席经济学家拉沃尼亚表示，今年将出现“爆炸式增长”。“如果经济在 [COVID-19] 大流行开始之前是健康的，那么经济会很快复苏是有道理的，美国的情况肯定就是如此。”但拉沃尼亚区分了国内生产总值增长和美国就业情况，目前仍比大流行前的水平少 800 多万个就业岗位。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73480de408490a3b8b662d2d85f47a5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"955\"><blockquote></blockquote> And this job outlook is dependent on the small-business side, where the data haven't been great. \"If we significantly lift marginal tax rates, and the tax rates on capital, that's going to really hurt the S corps,\" he says, referring to businesses with no more than 100 shareholders. The White House didn't reply to a question about S corporation tax policy.<blockquote>这种就业前景取决于小企业方面，那里的数据一直不太好。“如果我们大幅提高边际税率和资本税率，这将真正伤害 S corps，”他说，他指的是股东不超过 100 人的企业。白宫没有回答有关美国公司税收政策的问题。</blockquote> Lavorgna isn't fearful of goods and services inflation, and, as a result, says the Fed won't begin to taper its bond purchases before 2023 -- and won't lift interest rates before the next presidential election. The New York Federal Reserve's survey of primary dealers, in March, found Wall Street expecting that the taper would begin in the first quarter of 2022, with the first hike in the third quarter of 2023. \"If you're going into 2022, and growth is a lot slower, the delta is negative, and inflation isn't really picking up, it's going to be very hard for the Fed to taper,\" the Wall Street veteran says.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚并不担心商品和服务通胀，因此，他表示美联储不会在 2023 年之前开始缩减债券购买规模，也不会在下届总统选举之前加息。纽约联邦储备委员会 3 月份对一级交易商的调查发现，华尔街预计缩减加息将于 2022 年第一季度开始，首次加息将于 2023 年第三季度进行。这位华尔街资深人士表示：“如果进入 2022 年，增长放缓得多，delta 为负，通胀也没有真正回升，那么美联储将很难缩减规模。”</blockquote> In the last cycle, it took seven years from the last interest-rate cut to first interest-rate hike. \"This time around, the Fed is more ingrained in markets, the forward guidance is much stronger, the balance sheets are much bigger, it's occurring against massive debt,\" he says. \"How in the world can the Fed possibly step back from bond buying, it seems very difficult to me.\"<blockquote>在上一个周期中，从最后一次降息到第一次加息，用了7年时间。“这一次，美联储在市场中更加根深蒂固，前瞻性指引更加强劲，资产负债表规模更大，而且是在巨额债务的情况下发生的，”他表示。“美联储怎么可能放弃购买债券，这对我来说似乎非常困难。”</blockquote> Lavorgna says the Trump White House had expected the Biden administration to continue with its China tariffs. But he says there are three distinct differences in economic policies. The Trump administration's desire was to encourage reshoring by making energy cheap and dependable, he says. The second difference is the corporate tax rate, which the Trump administration lowered and the Biden administration wants to increase; and the third is the regulatory framework. \"And that's where, to me at least, on the small business side, you can have some significant stress,\" he says.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，特朗普白宫曾预计拜登政府将继续对中国征收关税。但他表示，经济政策有三个明显的区别。他说，特朗普执政的愿望是通过使能源变得廉价和可靠来鼓励回流。第二个区别是企业税率，特朗普政府降低了企业税率，拜登政府想提高企业税率；第三是监管框架。“至少对我来说，在小企业方面，这就是你可能会承受一些巨大压力的地方，”他说。</blockquote> He says the one&nbsp;thing he began to appreciate working in Washington, D.C. was the psychology of the economy. \"Sentiment is probably more important than I would have guessed for economic activity,\" he says. \"Going in I thought, 'that doesn't really matter because companies are opportunistic, they will figure out a way to navigate.' Well, that's true, but psychology is important.\"<blockquote>他说，他开始欣赏在华盛顿特区工作的一件事是经济心理。“对于经济活动，情绪可能比我想象的更重要，”他说。“进去后我想，‘这并不重要，因为公司是机会主义的，他们会想出一种方法来导航。’嗯，确实如此，但心理学很重要。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DJ The Fed won't taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. Here's why.<blockquote>前白宫经济学家表示，美联储最早要到 2023 年才会缩减规模。原因如下。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDJ The Fed won't taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. Here's why.<blockquote>前白宫经济学家表示，美联储最早要到 2023 年才会缩减规模。原因如下。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-04-21 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.<blockquote>第一季度是 10 年期国债自 1980 年以来表现最差的一年。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36576890f369dc2038b5b71019336f18\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"951\"><blockquote></blockquote> But that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March high. That is not all -- the U.S. dollar has softened, and the trading in eurodollar futures suggests reduced expectations for the number of interest-rate hikes between now and the end of 2024. \"That all kind of makes sense with a slower growth trajectory beyond this year,\" says Joe Lavorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.<blockquote>但最近情况并非如此，10 年期国债收益率较 3 月下旬的高点下滑了约 15 个基点。这还不是全部——美元已经走软，欧洲美元期货交易表明，从现在到 2024 年底加息次数的预期有所降低。Natixis 企业和投资银行美洲首席经济学家 Joe Lavorgna 表示：“随着今年之后增长轨迹放缓，这一切都有道理。”</blockquote> This year will see \"gangbusters growth,\" says Lavorgna, the chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration. \"If the economy was healthy before the [COVID-19] pandemic began, it would make sense the economy would come back quite quickly, and that's certainly been the case in the U.S.\" But Lavorgna distinguishes between gross domestic product growth and the U.S. jobs picture, which is still over 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.<blockquote>特朗普执政后期白宫国家经济委员会首席经济学家拉沃尼亚表示，今年将出现“爆炸式增长”。“如果经济在 [COVID-19] 大流行开始之前是健康的，那么经济会很快复苏是有道理的，美国的情况肯定就是如此。”但拉沃尼亚区分了国内生产总值增长和美国就业情况，目前仍比大流行前的水平少 800 多万个就业岗位。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73480de408490a3b8b662d2d85f47a5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"955\"><blockquote></blockquote> And this job outlook is dependent on the small-business side, where the data haven't been great. \"If we significantly lift marginal tax rates, and the tax rates on capital, that's going to really hurt the S corps,\" he says, referring to businesses with no more than 100 shareholders. The White House didn't reply to a question about S corporation tax policy.<blockquote>这种就业前景取决于小企业方面，那里的数据一直不太好。“如果我们大幅提高边际税率和资本税率，这将真正伤害 S corps，”他说，他指的是股东不超过 100 人的企业。白宫没有回答有关美国公司税收政策的问题。</blockquote> Lavorgna isn't fearful of goods and services inflation, and, as a result, says the Fed won't begin to taper its bond purchases before 2023 -- and won't lift interest rates before the next presidential election. The New York Federal Reserve's survey of primary dealers, in March, found Wall Street expecting that the taper would begin in the first quarter of 2022, with the first hike in the third quarter of 2023. \"If you're going into 2022, and growth is a lot slower, the delta is negative, and inflation isn't really picking up, it's going to be very hard for the Fed to taper,\" the Wall Street veteran says.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚并不担心商品和服务通胀，因此，他表示美联储不会在 2023 年之前开始缩减债券购买规模，也不会在下届总统选举之前加息。纽约联邦储备委员会 3 月份对一级交易商的调查发现，华尔街预计缩减加息将于 2022 年第一季度开始，首次加息将于 2023 年第三季度进行。这位华尔街资深人士表示：“如果进入 2022 年，增长放缓得多，delta 为负，通胀也没有真正回升，那么美联储将很难缩减规模。”</blockquote> In the last cycle, it took seven years from the last interest-rate cut to first interest-rate hike. \"This time around, the Fed is more ingrained in markets, the forward guidance is much stronger, the balance sheets are much bigger, it's occurring against massive debt,\" he says. \"How in the world can the Fed possibly step back from bond buying, it seems very difficult to me.\"<blockquote>在上一个周期中，从最后一次降息到第一次加息，用了7年时间。“这一次，美联储在市场中更加根深蒂固，前瞻性指引更加强劲，资产负债表规模更大，而且是在巨额债务的情况下发生的，”他表示。“美联储怎么可能放弃购买债券，这对我来说似乎非常困难。”</blockquote> Lavorgna says the Trump White House had expected the Biden administration to continue with its China tariffs. But he says there are three distinct differences in economic policies. The Trump administration's desire was to encourage reshoring by making energy cheap and dependable, he says. The second difference is the corporate tax rate, which the Trump administration lowered and the Biden administration wants to increase; and the third is the regulatory framework. \"And that's where, to me at least, on the small business side, you can have some significant stress,\" he says.<blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，特朗普白宫曾预计拜登政府将继续对中国征收关税。但他表示，经济政策有三个明显的区别。他说，特朗普执政的愿望是通过使能源变得廉价和可靠来鼓励回流。第二个区别是企业税率，特朗普政府降低了企业税率，拜登政府想提高企业税率；第三是监管框架。“至少对我来说，在小企业方面，这就是你可能会承受一些巨大压力的地方，”他说。</blockquote> He says the one&nbsp;thing he began to appreciate working in Washington, D.C. was the psychology of the economy. \"Sentiment is probably more important than I would have guessed for economic activity,\" he says. \"Going in I thought, 'that doesn't really matter because companies are opportunistic, they will figure out a way to navigate.' Well, that's true, but psychology is important.\"<blockquote>他说，他开始欣赏在华盛顿特区工作的一件事是经济心理。“对于经济活动，情绪可能比我想象的更重要，”他说。“进去后我想，‘这并不重要，因为公司是机会主义的，他们会想出一种方法来导航。’嗯，确实如此，但心理学很重要。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-taper-until-2023-at-the-earliest-says-former-white-house-economist-heres-why-11619001786?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-taper-until-2023-at-the-earliest-says-former-white-house-economist-heres-why-11619001786?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129876539","content_text":"The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.\n\nBut that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March high. That is not all -- the U.S. dollar has softened, and the trading in eurodollar futures suggests reduced expectations for the number of interest-rate hikes between now and the end of 2024. \"That all kind of makes sense with a slower growth trajectory beyond this year,\" says Joe Lavorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.\nThis year will see \"gangbusters growth,\" says Lavorgna, the chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration. \"If the economy was healthy before the [COVID-19] pandemic began, it would make sense the economy would come back quite quickly, and that's certainly been the case in the U.S.\" But Lavorgna distinguishes between gross domestic product growth and the U.S. jobs picture, which is still over 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.\n\nAnd this job outlook is dependent on the small-business side, where the data haven't been great. \"If we significantly lift marginal tax rates, and the tax rates on capital, that's going to really hurt the S corps,\" he says, referring to businesses with no more than 100 shareholders. The White House didn't reply to a question about S corporation tax policy.\nLavorgna isn't fearful of goods and services inflation, and, as a result, says the Fed won't begin to taper its bond purchases before 2023 -- and won't lift interest rates before the next presidential election. The New York Federal Reserve's survey of primary dealers, in March, found Wall Street expecting that the taper would begin in the first quarter of 2022, with the first hike in the third quarter of 2023. \"If you're going into 2022, and growth is a lot slower, the delta is negative, and inflation isn't really picking up, it's going to be very hard for the Fed to taper,\" the Wall Street veteran says.\nIn the last cycle, it took seven years from the last interest-rate cut to first interest-rate hike. \"This time around, the Fed is more ingrained in markets, the forward guidance is much stronger, the balance sheets are much bigger, it's occurring against massive debt,\" he says. \"How in the world can the Fed possibly step back from bond buying, it seems very difficult to me.\"\nLavorgna says the Trump White House had expected the Biden administration to continue with its China tariffs. But he says there are three distinct differences in economic policies. The Trump administration's desire was to encourage reshoring by making energy cheap and dependable, he says. The second difference is the corporate tax rate, which the Trump administration lowered and the Biden administration wants to increase; and the third is the regulatory framework. \"And that's where, to me at least, on the small business side, you can have some significant stress,\" he says.\nHe says the one thing he began to appreciate working in Washington, D.C. was the psychology of the economy. \"Sentiment is probably more important than I would have guessed for economic activity,\" he says. \"Going in I thought, 'that doesn't really matter because companies are opportunistic, they will figure out a way to navigate.' Well, that's true, but psychology is important.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/378143905"}