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2021-04-26
Oh lalalaa
Imagining Berkshire Hathaway after Buffett: Who will be CEO, what else will change — and what won’t<blockquote>想象巴菲特之后的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司：谁将成为首席执行官，还有什么会改变——什么不会改变</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":374981685,"tweetId":"374981685","gmtCreate":1619409122847,"gmtModify":1634273701409,"author":{"id":3573293723353711,"idStr":"3573293723353711","authorId":3573293723353711,"authorIdStr":"3573293723353711","name":"acciacci","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bbb8987174e5a3f205eb84324da3c3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oh lalalaa</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oh lalalaa</p></body></html>","text":"Oh lalalaa","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374981685","repostId":1180406876,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180406876","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619402112,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180406876?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Imagining Berkshire Hathaway after Buffett: Who will be CEO, what else will change — and what won’t<blockquote>想象巴菲特之后的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司：谁将成为首席执行官，还有什么会改变——什么不会改变</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180406876","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The next CEO will need a plan to return cash to shareholders\nWarren Buffett turns 91 on Aug. 30. Age","content":"<p>The next CEO will need a plan to return cash to shareholders</p><p><blockquote>下一任首席执行官需要制定向股东返还现金的计划</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf549a65530a2edc3f8d1472e10922fe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"830\"><span>Warren Buffett turns 91 on Aug. 30. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特将于8月30日迎来91岁生日。法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The passage of time guarantees that Berkshire Hathaway will one day be without the man synonymous with creating one of the world’s most valuable and admired businesses.</p><p><blockquote>时间的流逝保证了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司有一天会失去这个创造世界上最有价值和最受尊敬的企业之一的代名词。</blockquote></p><p> While ground-level management of Berkshire Hathaway’s decentralized individual business units will continue unchanged, filling Warren Buffett’s shoes will require some changes.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司分散的各个业务部门的基层管理将继续保持不变，但接替沃伦·巴菲特的位置需要一些改变。</blockquote></p><p> The most important role to fill will be CEO, one of three jobs now held by Buffett (he is also chairman and chief investment officer). While the actual name remains a secret, the background and skillset of Greg Abel suggests the board will choose him.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的职位将是首席执行官，这是巴菲特目前担任的三个职位之一（他也是董事长兼首席投资官）。虽然格雷格·阿贝尔的真实姓名仍然是个秘密，但他的背景和技能表明董事会会选择他。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reason is Abel’s extensive experience with capital allocation. During his time running Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and later as vice chairman overseeing non-insurance operations, Abel oversaw many acquisitions. He is also much more comfortable in the spotlight and about 10 years younger than Ajit Jain, the vice chairman in charge of insurance operations, which would give him a longer run at the helm. Jain, by contrast, is a brilliant handicapper more comfortable evaluating insurance risks (though he is also one of the best executives in the world, having overseen acquisitions of his own).</p><p><blockquote>主要原因是Abel在资本配置方面拥有丰富的经验。在管理伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司以及后来担任负责非保险业务的副主席期间，阿贝尔监督了许多收购。他在聚光灯下也更自在，而且比负责保险业务的副主席阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)年轻约10岁，这将使他的掌舵时间更长。相比之下，贾恩是一个出色的障碍者，更擅长评估保险风险（尽管他也是世界上最好的高管之一，监督过自己的收购）。</blockquote></p><p> The role of chairman will likely fall to Buffett’s son, Howard, whose primary duty will be to ensure Berkshire’s culture remains intact. Responsibility for managing Berkshire’s investment portfolio should fall to Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who joined Berkshire in 2010 and 2011, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>董事长一职可能会落到巴菲特的儿子霍华德身上，他的主要职责是确保伯克希尔的文化保持完整。管理伯克希尔投资组合的责任应该落在托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒身上，他们分别于2010年和2011年加入伯克希尔。</blockquote></p><p> Integral to the C-suite changes is the important question regarding Berkshire’s future capital allocation.</p><p><blockquote>高管层变动不可或缺的是有关伯克希尔未来资本配置的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s earning power all but guarantees it will have enough cash to invest in worthwhile projects at the subsidiary level and ample cash to make opportunistic acquisitions. That means cash will need to be returned to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的盈利能力几乎保证了它将有足够的现金投资于子公司层面有价值的项目，并有充足的现金进行机会主义收购。这意味着现金需要返还给股东。</blockquote></p><p> Here Berkshire has two main options and a blended third.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔有两个主要选择和第三个混合选择。</blockquote></p><p> The quickest way to return capital to shareholders is via dividends. But dividends are tax-inefficient and impose a single standard on all shareholders, two reasons why Buffett has resisted paying one in the past. A better way is through share repurchases which, assuming they are made at prices below intrinsic value, instantly increase per-share value for remaining shareholders. However, share repurchases are price-dependent.</p><p><blockquote>向股东返还资本的最快方式是通过股息。但股息的税收效率低下，并且对所有股东施加单一标准，这也是巴菲特过去拒绝支付股息的两个原因。更好的方法是通过股票回购，假设股票回购的价格低于内在价值，那么剩余股东的每股价值就会立即增加。然而，股票回购取决于价格。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>The next generation of Berkshire’s leaders are likely to hear loud calls from Wall Street (and perhaps some shareholders) to break up Buffett’s life’s work</h2> This leaves a blended option as the most logical course of action. Berkshire could set a regular dividend equal to, say, 25% of normalized operating earnings. Then if share repurchases aren’t available or an acquisition doesn’t materialize, infrequent special dividends could be declared. </p><p><blockquote><h2>伯克希尔的下一代领导人很可能会听到华尔街（或许还有一些股东）发出的响亮的评级，要求打破巴菲特毕生的工作</h2>这使得混合选项成为最合乎逻辑的行动方案。伯克希尔可以设定相当于正常化营业利润25%的定期股息。然后，如果无法进行股票回购或收购未实现，则可能会宣布不频繁的特别股息。 </blockquote></p><p> A dividend during Buffett’s remaining tenure is unlikely if share repurchases remain an option. But the day will come, perhaps soon, when Berkshire simply cannot allocate all the capital it generates and will need to pay a dividend. Longtime shareholders will recognize the need for such a change in policy, and others will rejoice at the prospect of Berkshire as a dividend-paying stock.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票回购仍然是一种选择，巴菲特剩余任期内不太可能派发股息。但这一天可能很快就会到来，伯克希尔根本无法分配其产生的所有资本，而需要支付股息。长期股东将认识到这种政策变化的必要性，而其他人将对伯克希尔作为派息股票的前景感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p> What the company’s new leaders are unlikely to do is break up Berkshire Hathaway. More so than other conglomerates, this firm is truly more than the sum of its parts. The conglomerate gains in tax efficiency, diversification, and capital allocation. Dismantling Berkshire to “unlock” value via higher price-earnings multiples would destroy these advantages and incur unnecessary taxes. Most important, it would tarnish the reputation Berkshire has carefully nurtured as a permanent home for generational family businesses.</p><p><blockquote>公司新领导人不太可能做的是拆分伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。与其他企业集团相比，这家公司确实不仅仅是其各个部分的总和。该集团在税收效率、多元化和资本配置方面获得收益。拆分伯克希尔以通过更高的市盈率“释放”价值将破坏这些优势并招致不必要的税收。最重要的是，这将损害伯克希尔作为几代家族企业永久家园精心培育的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett put it succinctly in his 2018 Chairman’s letter, published in 2019: “Truly good businesses are exceptionally hard to find. Selling any you are lucky enough to own makes no sense at all.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在2019年发表的2018年董事长信中简洁地表达了这一点：“真正好的企业非常难找到。出售任何你有幸拥有的企业都毫无意义。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet the next generation of Berkshire’s leaders are likely to hear loud calls from Wall Street (and perhaps some shareholders) to break up Buffett’s life’s work. The crux of the argument over breaking up Berkshire comes down to what constitutes value.</p><p><blockquote>然而，伯克希尔的下一代领导人很可能会听到华尔街（或许还有一些股东）发出响亮的评级，要求巴菲特打破巴菲特毕生的工作。关于拆分伯克希尔的争论的关键在于什么构成了价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39f2eed0ad97d26b0af04a16f00f83c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>Harriman House</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>哈里曼大厦</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Berkshire was built on the notion that value – the sum of all future cash flows discounted to the present – is independent of the stock market’s appraisal of that value. The underlying cash flows of Berkshire’s many subsidiaries would not change upon being separated into pieces (in fact they could be lower considering duplicated costs), which means that their value would not increase after a breakup. The subsidiaries already take advantage of opportunities for organic investment and bolt-on acquisitions that come their way, and Berkshire has taken care of the reinvestment problem by allowing excess cash to be sent to headquarters.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的理念是，价值——所有未来现金流贴现到现在的总和——独立于股票市场对该价值的评估。伯克希尔许多子公司的基础现金流在拆分后不会发生变化（事实上，考虑到重复成本，它们可能会更低），这意味着它们的价值在拆分后不会增加。这些子公司已经利用了有机投资和补强收购的机会，伯克希尔通过允许将多余的现金送往总部来解决再投资问题。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, Berkshire’s future value creation will likely come by minimizing the downside (maintaining insurance underwriting discipline and resisting mediocre capital allocation moves) to allow infrequent but meaningful advantages to accrue and accumulate to the benefit of ongoing shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>相反，伯克希尔未来的价值创造可能会通过最大限度地减少负面影响（维持保险承保纪律和抵制平庸的资本配置举措）来实现，以允许不常见但有意义的优势积累和积累，从而使现有股东受益。</blockquote></p><p> Value can be created by time arbitrage (a long-term business owner in an often short-term-thinking market), being a permanent home for family businesses (private-market discounts), by acting as an alternative source of financing when credit markets dry up (as Buffett did in the financial crisis when he invested $14.5 billion over the course of three days in Goldman Sachs, Wrigley, and General Electric), and through opportunistic share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>价值可以通过时间套利（通常是短期思维市场中的长期企业主）、成为家族企业的永久家园（私人市场折扣）、在信贷市场枯竭时充当替代融资来源（正如巴菲特在金融危机中所做的那样，他在三天内向高盛、箭牌和通用电气投资了145亿美元）以及通过机会主义股票回购来创造。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the ultimate fate of Berkshire Hathaway rests with its shareholders. Berkshire will undoubtedly not look the same in 25, 50 or 100 years, but it should thrive without Warren Buffett because of the unique corporate culture that he and Charlie Munger so painstakingly nurtured for the last half-century.</p><p><blockquote>当然，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的最终命运取决于其股东。毫无疑问，伯克希尔在25年、50年或100年后将不再是原来的样子，但如果没有沃伦·巴菲特，它应该会蓬勃发展，因为他和查理·芒格在过去半个世纪里精心培育了独特的企业文化。</blockquote></p><p> That is perhaps the highest praise one can give a man who took a blank canvas and turned it into one of the finest and most highly valued pieces of artwork the business world has ever seen.</p><p><blockquote>这也许是人们对一个拿着一张空白画布，把它变成商界有史以来最优秀、最有价值的艺术品之一的人的最高赞扬。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Imagining Berkshire Hathaway after Buffett: Who will be CEO, what else will change — and what won’t<blockquote>想象巴菲特之后的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司：谁将成为首席执行官，还有什么会改变——什么不会改变</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nImagining Berkshire Hathaway after Buffett: Who will be CEO, what else will change — and what won’t<blockquote>想象巴菲特之后的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司：谁将成为首席执行官，还有什么会改变——什么不会改变</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The next CEO will need a plan to return cash to shareholders</p><p><blockquote>下一任首席执行官需要制定向股东返还现金的计划</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf549a65530a2edc3f8d1472e10922fe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"830\"><span>Warren Buffett turns 91 on Aug. 30. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特将于8月30日迎来91岁生日。法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The passage of time guarantees that Berkshire Hathaway will one day be without the man synonymous with creating one of the world’s most valuable and admired businesses.</p><p><blockquote>时间的流逝保证了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司有一天会失去这个创造世界上最有价值和最受尊敬的企业之一的代名词。</blockquote></p><p> While ground-level management of Berkshire Hathaway’s decentralized individual business units will continue unchanged, filling Warren Buffett’s shoes will require some changes.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司分散的各个业务部门的基层管理将继续保持不变，但接替沃伦·巴菲特的位置需要一些改变。</blockquote></p><p> The most important role to fill will be CEO, one of three jobs now held by Buffett (he is also chairman and chief investment officer). While the actual name remains a secret, the background and skillset of Greg Abel suggests the board will choose him.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的职位将是首席执行官，这是巴菲特目前担任的三个职位之一（他也是董事长兼首席投资官）。虽然格雷格·阿贝尔的真实姓名仍然是个秘密，但他的背景和技能表明董事会会选择他。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reason is Abel’s extensive experience with capital allocation. During his time running Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and later as vice chairman overseeing non-insurance operations, Abel oversaw many acquisitions. He is also much more comfortable in the spotlight and about 10 years younger than Ajit Jain, the vice chairman in charge of insurance operations, which would give him a longer run at the helm. Jain, by contrast, is a brilliant handicapper more comfortable evaluating insurance risks (though he is also one of the best executives in the world, having overseen acquisitions of his own).</p><p><blockquote>主要原因是Abel在资本配置方面拥有丰富的经验。在管理伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司以及后来担任负责非保险业务的副主席期间，阿贝尔监督了许多收购。他在聚光灯下也更自在，而且比负责保险业务的副主席阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)年轻约10岁，这将使他的掌舵时间更长。相比之下，贾恩是一个出色的障碍者，更擅长评估保险风险（尽管他也是世界上最好的高管之一，监督过自己的收购）。</blockquote></p><p> The role of chairman will likely fall to Buffett’s son, Howard, whose primary duty will be to ensure Berkshire’s culture remains intact. Responsibility for managing Berkshire’s investment portfolio should fall to Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who joined Berkshire in 2010 and 2011, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>董事长一职可能会落到巴菲特的儿子霍华德身上，他的主要职责是确保伯克希尔的文化保持完整。管理伯克希尔投资组合的责任应该落在托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒身上，他们分别于2010年和2011年加入伯克希尔。</blockquote></p><p> Integral to the C-suite changes is the important question regarding Berkshire’s future capital allocation.</p><p><blockquote>高管层变动不可或缺的是有关伯克希尔未来资本配置的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s earning power all but guarantees it will have enough cash to invest in worthwhile projects at the subsidiary level and ample cash to make opportunistic acquisitions. That means cash will need to be returned to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的盈利能力几乎保证了它将有足够的现金投资于子公司层面有价值的项目，并有充足的现金进行机会主义收购。这意味着现金需要返还给股东。</blockquote></p><p> Here Berkshire has two main options and a blended third.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔有两个主要选择和第三个混合选择。</blockquote></p><p> The quickest way to return capital to shareholders is via dividends. But dividends are tax-inefficient and impose a single standard on all shareholders, two reasons why Buffett has resisted paying one in the past. A better way is through share repurchases which, assuming they are made at prices below intrinsic value, instantly increase per-share value for remaining shareholders. However, share repurchases are price-dependent.</p><p><blockquote>向股东返还资本的最快方式是通过股息。但股息的税收效率低下，并且对所有股东施加单一标准，这也是巴菲特过去拒绝支付股息的两个原因。更好的方法是通过股票回购，假设股票回购的价格低于内在价值，那么剩余股东的每股价值就会立即增加。然而，股票回购取决于价格。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>The next generation of Berkshire’s leaders are likely to hear loud calls from Wall Street (and perhaps some shareholders) to break up Buffett’s life’s work</h2> This leaves a blended option as the most logical course of action. Berkshire could set a regular dividend equal to, say, 25% of normalized operating earnings. Then if share repurchases aren’t available or an acquisition doesn’t materialize, infrequent special dividends could be declared. </p><p><blockquote><h2>伯克希尔的下一代领导人很可能会听到华尔街（或许还有一些股东）发出的响亮的评级，要求打破巴菲特毕生的工作</h2>这使得混合选项成为最合乎逻辑的行动方案。伯克希尔可以设定相当于正常化营业利润25%的定期股息。然后，如果无法进行股票回购或收购未实现，则可能会宣布不频繁的特别股息。 </blockquote></p><p> A dividend during Buffett’s remaining tenure is unlikely if share repurchases remain an option. But the day will come, perhaps soon, when Berkshire simply cannot allocate all the capital it generates and will need to pay a dividend. Longtime shareholders will recognize the need for such a change in policy, and others will rejoice at the prospect of Berkshire as a dividend-paying stock.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票回购仍然是一种选择，巴菲特剩余任期内不太可能派发股息。但这一天可能很快就会到来，伯克希尔根本无法分配其产生的所有资本，而需要支付股息。长期股东将认识到这种政策变化的必要性，而其他人将对伯克希尔作为派息股票的前景感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p> What the company’s new leaders are unlikely to do is break up Berkshire Hathaway. More so than other conglomerates, this firm is truly more than the sum of its parts. The conglomerate gains in tax efficiency, diversification, and capital allocation. Dismantling Berkshire to “unlock” value via higher price-earnings multiples would destroy these advantages and incur unnecessary taxes. Most important, it would tarnish the reputation Berkshire has carefully nurtured as a permanent home for generational family businesses.</p><p><blockquote>公司新领导人不太可能做的是拆分伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。与其他企业集团相比，这家公司确实不仅仅是其各个部分的总和。该集团在税收效率、多元化和资本配置方面获得收益。拆分伯克希尔以通过更高的市盈率“释放”价值将破坏这些优势并招致不必要的税收。最重要的是，这将损害伯克希尔作为几代家族企业永久家园精心培育的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett put it succinctly in his 2018 Chairman’s letter, published in 2019: “Truly good businesses are exceptionally hard to find. Selling any you are lucky enough to own makes no sense at all.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在2019年发表的2018年董事长信中简洁地表达了这一点：“真正好的企业非常难找到。出售任何你有幸拥有的企业都毫无意义。”</blockquote></p><p> Yet the next generation of Berkshire’s leaders are likely to hear loud calls from Wall Street (and perhaps some shareholders) to break up Buffett’s life’s work. The crux of the argument over breaking up Berkshire comes down to what constitutes value.</p><p><blockquote>然而，伯克希尔的下一代领导人很可能会听到华尔街（或许还有一些股东）发出响亮的评级，要求巴菲特打破巴菲特毕生的工作。关于拆分伯克希尔的争论的关键在于什么构成了价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39f2eed0ad97d26b0af04a16f00f83c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>Harriman House</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>哈里曼大厦</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Berkshire was built on the notion that value – the sum of all future cash flows discounted to the present – is independent of the stock market’s appraisal of that value. The underlying cash flows of Berkshire’s many subsidiaries would not change upon being separated into pieces (in fact they could be lower considering duplicated costs), which means that their value would not increase after a breakup. The subsidiaries already take advantage of opportunities for organic investment and bolt-on acquisitions that come their way, and Berkshire has taken care of the reinvestment problem by allowing excess cash to be sent to headquarters.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的理念是，价值——所有未来现金流贴现到现在的总和——独立于股票市场对该价值的评估。伯克希尔许多子公司的基础现金流在拆分后不会发生变化（事实上，考虑到重复成本，它们可能会更低），这意味着它们的价值在拆分后不会增加。这些子公司已经利用了有机投资和补强收购的机会，伯克希尔通过允许将多余的现金送往总部来解决再投资问题。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, Berkshire’s future value creation will likely come by minimizing the downside (maintaining insurance underwriting discipline and resisting mediocre capital allocation moves) to allow infrequent but meaningful advantages to accrue and accumulate to the benefit of ongoing shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>相反，伯克希尔未来的价值创造可能会通过最大限度地减少负面影响（维持保险承保纪律和抵制平庸的资本配置举措）来实现，以允许不常见但有意义的优势积累和积累，从而使现有股东受益。</blockquote></p><p> Value can be created by time arbitrage (a long-term business owner in an often short-term-thinking market), being a permanent home for family businesses (private-market discounts), by acting as an alternative source of financing when credit markets dry up (as Buffett did in the financial crisis when he invested $14.5 billion over the course of three days in Goldman Sachs, Wrigley, and General Electric), and through opportunistic share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>价值可以通过时间套利（通常是短期思维市场中的长期企业主）、成为家族企业的永久家园（私人市场折扣）、在信贷市场枯竭时充当替代融资来源（正如巴菲特在金融危机中所做的那样，他在三天内向高盛、箭牌和通用电气投资了145亿美元）以及通过机会主义股票回购来创造。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the ultimate fate of Berkshire Hathaway rests with its shareholders. Berkshire will undoubtedly not look the same in 25, 50 or 100 years, but it should thrive without Warren Buffett because of the unique corporate culture that he and Charlie Munger so painstakingly nurtured for the last half-century.</p><p><blockquote>当然，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的最终命运取决于其股东。毫无疑问，伯克希尔在25年、50年或100年后将不再是原来的样子，但如果没有沃伦·巴菲特，它应该会蓬勃发展，因为他和查理·芒格在过去半个世纪里精心培育了独特的企业文化。</blockquote></p><p> That is perhaps the highest praise one can give a man who took a blank canvas and turned it into one of the finest and most highly valued pieces of artwork the business world has ever seen.</p><p><blockquote>这也许是人们对一个拿着一张空白画布，把它变成商界有史以来最优秀、最有价值的艺术品之一的人的最高赞扬。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshire-hathaway-after-buffett-who-will-be-ceo-what-else-will-change-and-what-wont-11619179467?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshire-hathaway-after-buffett-who-will-be-ceo-what-else-will-change-and-what-wont-11619179467?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180406876","content_text":"The next CEO will need a plan to return cash to shareholders\nWarren Buffett turns 91 on Aug. 30. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images\nThe passage of time guarantees that Berkshire Hathaway will one day be without the man synonymous with creating one of the world’s most valuable and admired businesses.\nWhile ground-level management of Berkshire Hathaway’s decentralized individual business units will continue unchanged, filling Warren Buffett’s shoes will require some changes.\nThe most important role to fill will be CEO, one of three jobs now held by Buffett (he is also chairman and chief investment officer). While the actual name remains a secret, the background and skillset of Greg Abel suggests the board will choose him.\nThe primary reason is Abel’s extensive experience with capital allocation. During his time running Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and later as vice chairman overseeing non-insurance operations, Abel oversaw many acquisitions. He is also much more comfortable in the spotlight and about 10 years younger than Ajit Jain, the vice chairman in charge of insurance operations, which would give him a longer run at the helm. Jain, by contrast, is a brilliant handicapper more comfortable evaluating insurance risks (though he is also one of the best executives in the world, having overseen acquisitions of his own).\nThe role of chairman will likely fall to Buffett’s son, Howard, whose primary duty will be to ensure Berkshire’s culture remains intact. Responsibility for managing Berkshire’s investment portfolio should fall to Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who joined Berkshire in 2010 and 2011, respectively.\nIntegral to the C-suite changes is the important question regarding Berkshire’s future capital allocation.\nBerkshire’s earning power all but guarantees it will have enough cash to invest in worthwhile projects at the subsidiary level and ample cash to make opportunistic acquisitions. That means cash will need to be returned to shareholders.\nHere Berkshire has two main options and a blended third.\nThe quickest way to return capital to shareholders is via dividends. But dividends are tax-inefficient and impose a single standard on all shareholders, two reasons why Buffett has resisted paying one in the past. A better way is through share repurchases which, assuming they are made at prices below intrinsic value, instantly increase per-share value for remaining shareholders. However, share repurchases are price-dependent.\nThe next generation of Berkshire’s leaders are likely to hear loud calls from Wall Street (and perhaps some shareholders) to break up Buffett’s life’s work\nThis leaves a blended option as the most logical course of action. Berkshire could set a regular dividend equal to, say, 25% of normalized operating earnings. Then if share repurchases aren’t available or an acquisition doesn’t materialize, infrequent special dividends could be declared. \nA dividend during Buffett’s remaining tenure is unlikely if share repurchases remain an option. But the day will come, perhaps soon, when Berkshire simply cannot allocate all the capital it generates and will need to pay a dividend. Longtime shareholders will recognize the need for such a change in policy, and others will rejoice at the prospect of Berkshire as a dividend-paying stock.\nWhat the company’s new leaders are unlikely to do is break up Berkshire Hathaway. More so than other conglomerates, this firm is truly more than the sum of its parts. The conglomerate gains in tax efficiency, diversification, and capital allocation. Dismantling Berkshire to “unlock” value via higher price-earnings multiples would destroy these advantages and incur unnecessary taxes. Most important, it would tarnish the reputation Berkshire has carefully nurtured as a permanent home for generational family businesses.\nBuffett put it succinctly in his 2018 Chairman’s letter, published in 2019: “Truly good businesses are exceptionally hard to find. Selling any you are lucky enough to own makes no sense at all.”\nYet the next generation of Berkshire’s leaders are likely to hear loud calls from Wall Street (and perhaps some shareholders) to break up Buffett’s life’s work. The crux of the argument over breaking up Berkshire comes down to what constitutes value.\nHarriman House\nBerkshire was built on the notion that value – the sum of all future cash flows discounted to the present – is independent of the stock market’s appraisal of that value. The underlying cash flows of Berkshire’s many subsidiaries would not change upon being separated into pieces (in fact they could be lower considering duplicated costs), which means that their value would not increase after a breakup. The subsidiaries already take advantage of opportunities for organic investment and bolt-on acquisitions that come their way, and Berkshire has taken care of the reinvestment problem by allowing excess cash to be sent to headquarters.\nInstead, Berkshire’s future value creation will likely come by minimizing the downside (maintaining insurance underwriting discipline and resisting mediocre capital allocation moves) to allow infrequent but meaningful advantages to accrue and accumulate to the benefit of ongoing shareholders.\nValue can be created by time arbitrage (a long-term business owner in an often short-term-thinking market), being a permanent home for family businesses (private-market discounts), by acting as an alternative source of financing when credit markets dry up (as Buffett did in the financial crisis when he invested $14.5 billion over the course of three days in Goldman Sachs, Wrigley, and General Electric), and through opportunistic share repurchases.\nOf course, the ultimate fate of Berkshire Hathaway rests with its shareholders. Berkshire will undoubtedly not look the same in 25, 50 or 100 years, but it should thrive without Warren Buffett because of the unique corporate culture that he and Charlie Munger so painstakingly nurtured for the last half-century.\nThat is perhaps the highest praise one can give a man who took a blank canvas and turned it into one of the finest and most highly valued pieces of artwork the business world has ever seen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/374981685"}
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