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2021-04-23

Will buy when it declines by 13% lmao

Apple Stock Bear Sounds The Alarm: Expect 13% Decline<blockquote>苹果股市空头敲响警钟：预计下跌 13%</blockquote>

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One Wall Street analyst has recently ","content":"Even Apple bulls should understand the bear case on the stock. One Wall Street analyst has recently explained why Apple share price could decline by 13% to $115 apiece.<blockquote>即使是苹果多头也应该理解该股的熊市情况。一位华尔街分析师最近解释了为什么苹果股价可能下跌 13%，至每股 115 美元。</blockquote> It is rare to read or hear from an Apple stock bear on Wall Street. When ithappens, I like to pay close attention.I think it is important to understand&nbsp;the devil’s advocate case to investing in a company with such strong business fundamentals.<blockquote>在华尔街很少读到或听到苹果股市看跌的消息。当这种情况发生时，我喜欢密切关注。我认为了解投资一家业务基本面如此强劲的公司的魔鬼代言人的理由非常重要。</blockquote> Following Apple’s Spring Loaded event, Wolfe Research analyst Jeff Kvaal published a note discussing his main takeaways. I was mostly interested not in his “hot takes” on the event, but in why the sell-side expert thinks that Apple shares are worth only $115 – representing 13% downside risk.<blockquote>在苹果的春季活动结束后，沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）分析师杰夫-克瓦尔（Jeff Kvaal）发表了一份说明，讨论了他的主要收获。我最感兴趣的不是他对这次活动的 “热点话题 ”，而是这位卖方专家为什么认为苹果股票只值 115 美元，下行风险为 13%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e4c7c9ed80330b554bb91087bf6ee0\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Apple's Spring Loaded event logo.<blockquote>图1：苹果的Spring Loaded活动标志。</blockquote> Some bullishness first<blockquote>先来点乐观</blockquote> In its note, Wolfe Research presented what seemed to be positive reactions to Apple’s product refresh event of April 20. Here are some key observations from the analyst:<blockquote>Wolfe Research 在说明中介绍了对苹果 4 月 20 日产品更新活动的积极反应。以下是分析师的一些关键观察结果：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The M1-equipped iMac&nbsp;was a good surprise, since the last refresh had happened as recently as August 2020. I believe that,with the introduction of its new M1 chip&nbsp;and redesigned architecture, Apple will continue to accelerate product innovation.</li> <li>The iPad Pro&nbsp;was also redesigned around the M1 silicon, rather than the traditional A-series chip. Once again, I see Apple looking for an edge in product innovation as a way to keep demand for its devices elevated in the post-pandemic period.</li> <li>The purple iPhone 12&nbsp;was Apple’s first stand-alone, off-cycle smartphone. With&nbsp;the 12 mini allegedly struggling&nbsp;to find traction, maybe the Cupertino company saw an opportunity to increase entry-level iPhone sales by simply introducing a prettier-looking case.</li> </ul> The analyst summarized his main observations about Spring Loaded with this quote:<blockquote><ul><li>配备M1的iMac这是一个很好的惊喜，因为上一次刷新发生在2020年8月。我相信，随着全新M1芯片的推出和重新设计的架构，苹果将继续加速产品创新。</li><li>iPad Pro还围绕M1芯片进行了重新设计，而不是传统的A系列芯片。我再次看到苹果正在寻找产品创新的优势，以此作为在后疫情时代保持对其设备需求的一种方式。</li><li>紫色iPhone 12是苹果首款独立的非周期智能手机。据称，随着12 mini难以找到吸引力，也许这家库比蒂诺公司看到了一个机会，只需推出一款更漂亮的手机壳，就能增加入门级iPhone的销量。</li></ul>分析师用这句话总结了他对 Spring Load 的主要观察：</blockquote> “M1 expansion, not new products, is our key positive takeaway.” Why Apple stock could correct<blockquote>“M1扩张，而不是新产品，是我们的主要积极因素。”为什么苹果股票可能会修正</blockquote> Now, on to the bear case. Wolfe’s argument for a 13% share price decline has nothing to do with Apple’s most recent product refresh cycle. Rather, the analyst justified bearishness as follows:<blockquote>现在，谈谈熊的案子。沃尔夫关于股价下跌 13% 的论点与苹果最近的产品更新周期无关。相反，分析师对看跌的理由如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“Throughout the pandemic, Apple has blown away its consensus estimates; [yet, the stock] has underperformed the market by [about] 10% year to date”. Wolfe is alluding to the fact that nothing else, from the perspective of financial performance, seems able to push Apple stock higher. In fact, shares have been down since January 2021 and flat since early-August 2020.</li> <li>“Residual strength in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max due to channel inventory fill should ease heading into fiscal third quarter”. In plain English, Wolfe seems to think that some of Apple’s recent sales growth may have been driven by inventory buildup at stores. As the stock of new higher-end iPhones decline, revenue growth should moderate.</li> <li>“The Mac, iPad, and Services segments face stiff compares as Apple circles onto its first full quarter of pandemic comps”. I think that a tough 2020 benchmark could, in fact, be a potential headwind, especially in the back half of fiscal 2021. How can Apple top iPad sales growth of 43% in last year’s holiday and pre-holiday quarters? The good news is that the Cupertino company has been aggressive at rolling out appealing new tablets and personal computers in the past few months.</li> <li>“We [remain] apprehensive of the expectations embedded in Apples high multiple”. To be fair, the stock’s valuations seem a bit stretched. I&nbsp;discussed the subject in more detail&nbsp;recently, concluding that:</li> </ul> “Apple’s rich multiples could find upside resistance from here. Should Apple stock price rise, which it very well may, it will likely be the result of growth in financial metrics (sales, earnings, cash flow) rather than valuation expansion.” <blockquote><ul><li>“在整个疫情，苹果已经打破了它的共识估计；[然而，该股]今年迄今为止的表现逊于市场[约]10%”.沃尔夫指的是这样一个事实，从财务业绩的角度来看，似乎没有其他任何事情能够推高苹果股价。事实上，股价自 2021 年 1 月以来一直在下跌，自 2020 年 8 月初以来一直持平。</li><li>“由于渠道库存填充，iPhone Pro 和 Pro Max 的剩余产量应该会在第三财季有所缓解”.用简单的英语来说，沃尔夫似乎认为苹果最近的部分销售额增长可能是由商店库存积压推动的。随着新款高端 iPhone 库存下降，收入增长应该会放缓。</li><li>“随着苹果进入第一个完整季度的大流行业绩，Mac、iPad 和服务领域面临严峻的比较”.我认为，事实上，严峻的 2020 年基准可能是一个潜在的阻力，尤其是在 2021 财年下半年。苹果是如何超越去年假日和假日前季度 43% 的 iPad 销量增长的？好消息是，这家库比蒂诺公司在过去几个月里一直在积极推出有吸引力的新平板电脑和个人电脑。</li><li>“我们[仍然]担心苹果高倍数中蕴含的期望”.平心而论，该股的估值似乎有点捉襟见肘。我最近更详细地讨论了这个话题，得出的结论是：</li></ul>“苹果丰富的市盈率可能会从这里找到上行阻力。如果苹果股价上涨（它很可能会上涨），那很可能是财务指标（销售额、盈利、现金流）增长的结果，而不是估值扩张的结果。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Bear Sounds The Alarm: Expect 13% Decline<blockquote>苹果股市空头敲响警钟：预计下跌 13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Bear Sounds The Alarm: Expect 13% Decline<blockquote>苹果股市空头敲响警钟：预计下跌 13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-23 21:58\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEven Apple bulls should understand the bear case on the stock. One Wall Street analyst has recently explained why Apple share price could decline by 13% to $115 apiece.<blockquote>即使是苹果多头也应该理解该股的熊市情况。一位华尔街分析师最近解释了为什么苹果股价可能下跌 13%，至每股 115 美元。</blockquote> It is rare to read or hear from an Apple stock bear on Wall Street. When ithappens, I like to pay close attention.I think it is important to understand&nbsp;the devil’s advocate case to investing in a company with such strong business fundamentals.<blockquote>在华尔街很少读到或听到苹果股市看跌的消息。当这种情况发生时，我喜欢密切关注。我认为了解投资一家业务基本面如此强劲的公司的魔鬼代言人的理由非常重要。</blockquote> Following Apple’s Spring Loaded event, Wolfe Research analyst Jeff Kvaal published a note discussing his main takeaways. I was mostly interested not in his “hot takes” on the event, but in why the sell-side expert thinks that Apple shares are worth only $115 – representing 13% downside risk.<blockquote>在苹果的春季活动结束后，沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）分析师杰夫-克瓦尔（Jeff Kvaal）发表了一份说明，讨论了他的主要收获。我最感兴趣的不是他对这次活动的 “热点话题 ”，而是这位卖方专家为什么认为苹果股票只值 115 美元，下行风险为 13%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e4c7c9ed80330b554bb91087bf6ee0\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Apple's Spring Loaded event logo.<blockquote>图1：苹果的Spring Loaded活动标志。</blockquote> Some bullishness first<blockquote>先来点乐观</blockquote> In its note, Wolfe Research presented what seemed to be positive reactions to Apple’s product refresh event of April 20. Here are some key observations from the analyst:<blockquote>Wolfe Research 在说明中介绍了对苹果 4 月 20 日产品更新活动的积极反应。以下是分析师的一些关键观察结果：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The M1-equipped iMac&nbsp;was a good surprise, since the last refresh had happened as recently as August 2020. I believe that,with the introduction of its new M1 chip&nbsp;and redesigned architecture, Apple will continue to accelerate product innovation.</li> <li>The iPad Pro&nbsp;was also redesigned around the M1 silicon, rather than the traditional A-series chip. Once again, I see Apple looking for an edge in product innovation as a way to keep demand for its devices elevated in the post-pandemic period.</li> <li>The purple iPhone 12&nbsp;was Apple’s first stand-alone, off-cycle smartphone. With&nbsp;the 12 mini allegedly struggling&nbsp;to find traction, maybe the Cupertino company saw an opportunity to increase entry-level iPhone sales by simply introducing a prettier-looking case.</li> </ul> The analyst summarized his main observations about Spring Loaded with this quote:<blockquote><ul><li>配备M1的iMac这是一个很好的惊喜，因为上一次刷新发生在2020年8月。我相信，随着全新M1芯片的推出和重新设计的架构，苹果将继续加速产品创新。</li><li>iPad Pro还围绕M1芯片进行了重新设计，而不是传统的A系列芯片。我再次看到苹果正在寻找产品创新的优势，以此作为在后疫情时代保持对其设备需求的一种方式。</li><li>紫色iPhone 12是苹果首款独立的非周期智能手机。据称，随着12 mini难以找到吸引力，也许这家库比蒂诺公司看到了一个机会，只需推出一款更漂亮的手机壳，就能增加入门级iPhone的销量。</li></ul>分析师用这句话总结了他对 Spring Load 的主要观察：</blockquote> “M1 expansion, not new products, is our key positive takeaway.” Why Apple stock could correct<blockquote>“M1扩张，而不是新产品，是我们的主要积极因素。”为什么苹果股票可能会修正</blockquote> Now, on to the bear case. Wolfe’s argument for a 13% share price decline has nothing to do with Apple’s most recent product refresh cycle. Rather, the analyst justified bearishness as follows:<blockquote>现在，谈谈熊的案子。沃尔夫关于股价下跌 13% 的论点与苹果最近的产品更新周期无关。相反，分析师对看跌的理由如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“Throughout the pandemic, Apple has blown away its consensus estimates; [yet, the stock] has underperformed the market by [about] 10% year to date”. Wolfe is alluding to the fact that nothing else, from the perspective of financial performance, seems able to push Apple stock higher. In fact, shares have been down since January 2021 and flat since early-August 2020.</li> <li>“Residual strength in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max due to channel inventory fill should ease heading into fiscal third quarter”. In plain English, Wolfe seems to think that some of Apple’s recent sales growth may have been driven by inventory buildup at stores. As the stock of new higher-end iPhones decline, revenue growth should moderate.</li> <li>“The Mac, iPad, and Services segments face stiff compares as Apple circles onto its first full quarter of pandemic comps”. I think that a tough 2020 benchmark could, in fact, be a potential headwind, especially in the back half of fiscal 2021. How can Apple top iPad sales growth of 43% in last year’s holiday and pre-holiday quarters? The good news is that the Cupertino company has been aggressive at rolling out appealing new tablets and personal computers in the past few months.</li> <li>“We [remain] apprehensive of the expectations embedded in Apples high multiple”. To be fair, the stock’s valuations seem a bit stretched. I&nbsp;discussed the subject in more detail&nbsp;recently, concluding that:</li> </ul> “Apple’s rich multiples could find upside resistance from here. Should Apple stock price rise, which it very well may, it will likely be the result of growth in financial metrics (sales, earnings, cash flow) rather than valuation expansion.” <blockquote><ul><li>“在整个疫情，苹果已经打破了它的共识估计；[然而，该股]今年迄今为止的表现逊于市场[约]10%”.沃尔夫指的是这样一个事实，从财务业绩的角度来看，似乎没有其他任何事情能够推高苹果股价。事实上，股价自 2021 年 1 月以来一直在下跌，自 2020 年 8 月初以来一直持平。</li><li>“由于渠道库存填充，iPhone Pro 和 Pro Max 的剩余产量应该会在第三财季有所缓解”.用简单的英语来说，沃尔夫似乎认为苹果最近的部分销售额增长可能是由商店库存积压推动的。随着新款高端 iPhone 库存下降，收入增长应该会放缓。</li><li>“随着苹果进入第一个完整季度的大流行业绩，Mac、iPad 和服务领域面临严峻的比较”.我认为，事实上，严峻的 2020 年基准可能是一个潜在的阻力，尤其是在 2021 财年下半年。苹果是如何超越去年假日和假日前季度 43% 的 iPad 销量增长的？好消息是，这家库比蒂诺公司在过去几个月里一直在积极推出有吸引力的新平板电脑和个人电脑。</li><li>“我们[仍然]担心苹果高倍数中蕴含的期望”.平心而论，该股的估值似乎有点捉襟见肘。我最近更详细地讨论了这个话题，得出的结论是：</li></ul>“苹果丰富的市盈率可能会从这里找到上行阻力。如果苹果股价上涨（它很可能会上涨），那很可能是财务指标（销售额、盈利、现金流）增长的结果，而不是估值扩张的结果。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bear-sounds-the-alarm-expect-13-decline\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bear-sounds-the-alarm-expect-13-decline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162382068","content_text":"Even Apple bulls should understand the bear case on the stock. One Wall Street analyst has recently explained why Apple share price could decline by 13% to $115 apiece.\nIt is rare to read or hear from an Apple stock bear on Wall Street. When ithappens, I like to pay close attention.I think it is important to understand the devil’s advocate case to investing in a company with such strong business fundamentals.\nFollowing Apple’s Spring Loaded event, Wolfe Research analyst Jeff Kvaal published a note discussing his main takeaways. I was mostly interested not in his “hot takes” on the event, but in why the sell-side expert thinks that Apple shares are worth only $115 – representing 13% downside risk.\nFigure 1: Apple's Spring Loaded event logo.\nSome bullishness first\nIn its note, Wolfe Research presented what seemed to be positive reactions to Apple’s product refresh event of April 20. Here are some key observations from the analyst:\n\nThe M1-equipped iMac was a good surprise, since the last refresh had happened as recently as August 2020. I believe that,with the introduction of its new M1 chip and redesigned architecture, Apple will continue to accelerate product innovation.\nThe iPad Pro was also redesigned around the M1 silicon, rather than the traditional A-series chip. Once again, I see Apple looking for an edge in product innovation as a way to keep demand for its devices elevated in the post-pandemic period.\nThe purple iPhone 12 was Apple’s first stand-alone, off-cycle smartphone. With the 12 mini allegedly struggling to find traction, maybe the Cupertino company saw an opportunity to increase entry-level iPhone sales by simply introducing a prettier-looking case.\n\nThe analyst summarized his main observations about Spring Loaded with this quote:\n\n “M1 expansion, not new products, is our key positive takeaway.”\n\nWhy Apple stock could correct\nNow, on to the bear case. Wolfe’s argument for a 13% share price decline has nothing to do with Apple’s most recent product refresh cycle. Rather, the analyst justified bearishness as follows:\n\n“Throughout the pandemic, Apple has blown away its consensus estimates; [yet, the stock] has underperformed the market by [about] 10% year to date”. Wolfe is alluding to the fact that nothing else, from the perspective of financial performance, seems able to push Apple stock higher. In fact, shares have been down since January 2021 and flat since early-August 2020.\n“Residual strength in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max due to channel inventory fill should ease heading into fiscal third quarter”. In plain English, Wolfe seems to think that some of Apple’s recent sales growth may have been driven by inventory buildup at stores. As the stock of new higher-end iPhones decline, revenue growth should moderate.\n“The Mac, iPad, and Services segments face stiff compares as Apple circles onto its first full quarter of pandemic comps”. I think that a tough 2020 benchmark could, in fact, be a potential headwind, especially in the back half of fiscal 2021. How can Apple top iPad sales growth of 43% in last year’s holiday and pre-holiday quarters? The good news is that the Cupertino company has been aggressive at rolling out appealing new tablets and personal computers in the past few months.\n“We [remain] apprehensive of the expectations embedded in Apples high multiple”. To be fair, the stock’s valuations seem a bit stretched. I discussed the subject in more detail recently, concluding that:\n\n\n “Apple’s rich multiples could find upside resistance from here. Should Apple stock price rise, which it very well may, it will likely be the result of growth in financial metrics (sales, earnings, cash flow) rather than valuation expansion.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/372885862"}