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2021-03-04

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Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>

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So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要巨大的沟通努力才能让市场理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储出手相救。它放松了货币条件，并敦促国会实施财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>它的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了2020年春天世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。不过，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，尤其是宽松仍在进行，且即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始定价更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计2022年加息25个基点的可能性超过80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同的说明，同样的市场价格将在2023年再加息两次，到2025年底，货币条件将收紧超过125个基点。这意味着三年后联邦基金利率将从目前的接近零升至1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往有一种前瞻性的态度，现在的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将带来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这种情况正在缓解，但与此同时，这些钱将进一步推动经济复苏，反过来，将创造更多的就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>更多的宽松政策也来自美国财政部，被迫在未来几个月解除其在美联储的普通账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白，这些行为反映了当前的状况。此外，所有这些都已定价。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是一件重要的事情。这表明经济将大幅复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻碍经济复苏，而是会推动经济复苏。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要巨大的沟通努力才能让市场理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储出手相救。它放松了货币条件，并敦促国会实施财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>它的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了2020年春天世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。不过，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，尤其是宽松仍在进行，且即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始定价更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计2022年加息25个基点的可能性超过80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同的说明，同样的市场价格将在2023年再加息两次，到2025年底，货币条件将收紧超过125个基点。这意味着三年后联邦基金利率将从目前的接近零升至1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往有一种前瞻性的态度，现在的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将带来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这种情况正在缓解，但与此同时，这些钱将进一步推动经济复苏，反过来，将创造更多的就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>更多的宽松政策也来自美国财政部，被迫在未来几个月解除其在美联储的普通账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白，这些行为反映了当前的状况。此外，所有这些都已定价。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是一件重要的事情。这表明经济将大幅复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻碍经济复苏，而是会推动经济复苏。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/364519238"}