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2021-02-24

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The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote>

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That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.<blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标准普尔 500 指数 2021 年目标价从 4,200 美元上调至 4,300 美元。这意味着策略师预计，到今年年底，该指数将较当前水平上涨 11% 以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet 追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计该指数将达到 4,400 美元。</blockquote> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.<blockquote>但这种乐观情绪确实有其价值。“瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）在一份报告中写道：”随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，2021 年的 GDP 预计将比过去 35 年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。</blockquote> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.<blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度的每股收益总额超过了分析师的预测 17%，而且绝大多数公司都已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.<blockquote>更高的盈利预期通常会导致股票价格更高。Golub 将标普500每股收益的宏观预期从 2021 年的 175 美元上调至 185 美元，从 2022 年的 200 美元上调至 210 美元。</blockquote> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.<blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不在意公司将第四季度盈利预期降低。结果并不重要，理由是，如果 Covid-19 疫苗不能如期推出，或者不能充分抵御新毒株，当地经济就无法重新开放，收入也会暴跌。</blockquote> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.<blockquote>但现在， 疫苗每天都能找到数百万件武器和数万亿美元的额外财政刺激，这将支持预期的需求。本季度的盈利预期低于几周前第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与 Covid-19 相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022 年每股收益为 198 美元。</blockquote> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.<blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub 预计，到今年年底，该指数的交易价格将略高于 2022 年总收益的 20 倍。这比目前未来 12 个月盈利预期低约 22 倍。</blockquote> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.<blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。更高的收益率使得投资股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.<blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与更好的盈利是一致的，这可能会推动股价走高。</blockquote> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.<blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，而美联储过快、过高加息的决定将对经济和股票估值构成风险。</blockquote> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.<blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。随着股票在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500还有更大的上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-24 13:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEarnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.<blockquote>最近盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，盈利可能会从目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.<blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标准普尔 500 指数 2021 年目标价从 4,200 美元上调至 4,300 美元。这意味着策略师预计，到今年年底，该指数将较当前水平上涨 11% 以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet 追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计该指数将达到 4,400 美元。</blockquote> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.<blockquote>但这种乐观情绪确实有其价值。“瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）在一份报告中写道：”随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，2021 年的 GDP 预计将比过去 35 年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。</blockquote> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.<blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度的每股收益总额超过了分析师的预测 17%，而且绝大多数公司都已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.<blockquote>更高的盈利预期通常会导致股票价格更高。Golub 将标普500每股收益的宏观预期从 2021 年的 175 美元上调至 185 美元，从 2022 年的 200 美元上调至 210 美元。</blockquote> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.<blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不在意公司将第四季度盈利预期降低。结果并不重要，理由是，如果 Covid-19 疫苗不能如期推出，或者不能充分抵御新毒株，当地经济就无法重新开放，收入也会暴跌。</blockquote> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.<blockquote>但现在， 疫苗每天都能找到数百万件武器和数万亿美元的额外财政刺激，这将支持预期的需求。本季度的盈利预期低于几周前第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与 Covid-19 相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022 年每股收益为 198 美元。</blockquote> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.<blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub 预计，到今年年底，该指数的交易价格将略高于 2022 年总收益的 20 倍。这比目前未来 12 个月盈利预期低约 22 倍。</blockquote> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.<blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。更高的收益率使得投资股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.<blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与更好的盈利是一致的，这可能会推动股价走高。</blockquote> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.<blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，而美联储过快、过高加息的决定将对经济和股票估值构成风险。</blockquote> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.<blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。随着股票在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111682954","content_text":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.\nCredit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.\nBut the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.\nHe argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.\nHigher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.\nAt first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.\nBut now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.\nThe next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.\nLower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.\nBut the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.\nNone of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.\nStill, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/363267500"}