Shortage of chips has been run_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-02-25

Shortage of chips has been running for awhile

Worldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year, and that’s good news for semiconductor stocks<blockquote>全球芯片短缺预计将持续到明年，这对半导体股来说是个好消息</blockquote>

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The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.<blockquote>对于汽车制造商和消费者来说，芯片一直很难买到，给一系列行业带来了困难。原因似乎是人们在 COVID-19 大流行期间抢购电子产品导致需求增加、满足这一需求的制造能力有限以及中美贸易战的综合作用。</blockquote> Maribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Research, told MarketWatch in an interview the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.<blockquote>洛佩兹研究公司（Lopez Research）首席分析师玛丽贝尔-洛佩兹（Maribel Lopez）在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示，芯片行业正面临着供需问题的 “完美风暴”，这些问题不太可能很快得到解决。</blockquote> “Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said. “You can’t buy a dumb product.”<blockquote>“洛佩兹说：”除非我们出现严重的经济崩溃（这显然是有可能的），否则现在发生的一件事是，几乎你买的任何东西都会有芯片。“你买不到愚蠢的产品。”</blockquote> While high demand for mobile-device chips in 2020 was expected, the surge in demand for PC-based chips was not, she said. The trend of shrinking chips down to where they can fit in places they haven’t been able to fit before has made the manufacturing process more complex, Lopez noted. The pandemic took those trends and placed an added level of volatility on the supply chains and manufacturing practices dealing with them.<blockquote>她说，虽然预计2020年对移动设备芯片的高需求，但对基于PC的芯片的需求激增并非如此。洛佩兹指出，将芯片缩小到以前无法安装的地方的趋势使得制造过程变得更加复杂。疫情抓住了这些趋势，并给供应链和应对这些趋势的制造实践带来了额外的波动性。</blockquote> The full impact of the chip shortage, however, didn’t hit home to the wider market until General Motors Co.&nbsp;,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other auto makers said recently they’ve had to shut down production on certain models&nbsp;because of a lack of semiconductors.<blockquote>然而，直到通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他汽车制造商最近表示，由于缺乏半导体，他们不得不停止某些车型的生产，芯片短缺的全部影响才波及到更广泛的市场。</blockquote> Amid growing concerns from industry leaders,President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order Wednesday&nbsp;calling for the review of critical U.S. manufacturing supply chains that may rely too much on China, particularly those involving chips and high-capacity batteries.<blockquote>由于行业领袖的担忧日益加剧，乔·拜登总统将于周三签署一项行政命令，呼吁审查可能过度依赖中国的美国关键制造业供应链，特别是涉及芯片和高容量电池的供应链。</blockquote> While the shortage has caused pain for consumers and companies, it has not hurt the chip industry. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur said this past earnings season was the first the firm has tracked where all covered chip makers not only beat estimates for the quarter but topped expectations for forecasts.<blockquote>虽然短缺给消费者和企业带来了痛苦，但并没有伤害芯片行业。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔 (Harlan Sur) 在最近的一份报告中表示，过去的财报季是该公司追踪的第一个财报季，所有涵盖的芯片制造商不仅超出了本季度的预期，而且超出了预测预期。</blockquote> Chip stocks have soared to all-time highs. The PHLX Semiconductor Index,which tracks dozens of the largest chip-related stocks, has gained more than 70% in the past 12 months, compared with a 21% gain on the S&amp;P 500 index,and a 47% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.<blockquote>芯片股飙升至历史新高。追踪数十只最大芯片相关股票的 PHLX 半导体指数在过去 12 个月中上涨了 70% 以上，而标普500指数上涨了 21%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 47%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2597bfd2bf84e110ca8642c9ba437a06\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"680\"><blockquote></blockquote> Analysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space. Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”<blockquote>不过，分析师认为，随着需求推高价格并提振整个半导体领域的公司，未来可能会有更多涨幅。苏尔说，尽管库存基本面似乎捉襟见肘，“我们认为半导体公司的发货量比目前的需求水平低 10% 到 30%，供应至少需要 3-4 个季度才能赶上需求，然后客户/分销渠道的库存再需要 1-2 个季度才能补充到正常水平”。</blockquote> Susquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland recently said he expects chip shortages will only get worse heading into the spring. Lead times, or the amount of time an order is placed between it delivery, for semiconductors are entering a “danger zone” of above 14 weeks, the longest they’ve been since the last chip boom of 2018, Rolland said.<blockquote>萨斯奎哈纳金融分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰最近表示，他预计进入春季，芯片短缺只会变得更加严重。罗兰说，半导体的交货时间（即从交货到交货之间下订单的时间）正在进入一个超过 14 周的 “危险区”，这是自 2018 年上一次芯片繁荣以来最长的一次。</blockquote> While that may be good in the short term for chip suppliers and makers, with some companies estimating demand outstripping supply for several quarters, in the long run it could backfire if not managed well, Rolland said.<blockquote>罗兰表示，虽然这在短期内对芯片供应商和制造商来说可能是好事，一些公司估计需求将在几个季度内超过供应，但从长远来看，如果管理不善，可能会适得其反。</blockquote> The chip industry still remembers what happened less than three years ago when it was drowning in a glut of oversupply. Back then, customersoverbought supplies of chipsto lock in lower prices because prices had soared in the 2018 chip boom, causing a steep drop in demand, leaving chip makers with large inventories and plummeting stock prices. Nvidia Corp.,Micron Technology Inc.&nbsp;and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.,along with other industry players were&nbsp;all&nbsp;adversely&nbsp;affected&nbsp;by the glut.<blockquote>芯片行业仍然记得不到三年前发生的事情，当时它正沉浸在供过于求的过剩中。当时，客户超买了芯片供应，锁定了较低的价格，因为在2018年芯片繁荣时期价格飙升，导致需求急剧下降，导致芯片制造商库存大增，股价暴跌。英伟达公司、美光科技公司和先进微设备公司以及其他行业参与者都受到了产能过剩的不利影响。</blockquote> Those companies are doing what they can to avoid a repeat of the pain that came at the end of the 2018 boom and resulting shortage.Nvidia, for example,said it hoped to ease shortages of gaming cards by launching a chip designed for cryptocurrency mining as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin&nbsp;and ethereum&nbsp;continue soaring to record highs.<blockquote>这些公司正在尽最大努力避免重蹈 2018 年繁荣结束时的痛苦以及由此导致的短缺。例如，英伟达表示，随着比特币和以太币等加密货币继续飙升至历史新高，它希望通过推出一款专为加密货币挖矿设计的芯片来缓解游戏卡短缺的问题。</blockquote> While claims of “this time it’s different” should always be taken with a grain of salt, it may very well be different this time around given the unprecedented mix of factors the world has gone through over the past year. Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin, who follows tech supply chain issues, is more concerned with continued supply-chain disruptions than he is over-ordering.<blockquote>虽然 “这次不同 ”的说法应该始终持保留态度，但鉴于世界在过去一年中经历了前所未有的多种因素，这一次很可能会有所不同。Stifel 分析师 Matthew Sheerin 关注科技供应链问题，他更关心持续的供应链中断，而不是过度订购。</blockquote> “We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red&nbsp;flag,” Sheering said.<blockquote>“Sheering 说：”我们从无数零部件供应商和分销商那里听到了关于订单到账单水平上升和积压订单不断增加的问题，这通常是一个'双重订购'的危险信号。</blockquote> “We don’t see any major correction on the horizon, given ongoing supply constraints as well as continued optimism about improving demand in 2H21,” the Stifel analyst said. “We remain more concerned with continued supply disruptions, and increased materials costs, than we do an imminent multi-quarter inventory correction.”<blockquote>“Stifel 分析师说：”鉴于持续的供应限制以及对 21 年下半年需求改善的持续乐观态度，我们认为不会出现任何重大调整。“我们仍然更关心持续的供应中断和材料成本增加，而不是即将到来的多季度库存调整。”</blockquote> Chip-equipment suppliers seem confident that chip manufacturers will build out their capacity because of the shortage and next-generation designs that won’t be well served by existing fabs.Applied Materials Inc.&nbsp;said last week it expects to supply a decade-plus investment cycle for chip makers. That followed strong earnings and outlooks from chip-making equipment companiesKLA Corp.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lam Research Corp.&nbsp;noting that chip makers needed to build out their manufacturing capacities even further.<blockquote>芯片设备供应商似乎对芯片制造商扩大产能充满信心，因为现有晶圆厂无法很好地满足下一代设计需求。此前，芯片制造设备公司 KLA Corp. 和 Lam Research Corp. 公布了强劲的盈利和前景，并指出芯片制造商需要进一步扩大其制造能力。</blockquote> Case in point,Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,the third-party manufacturing giant that fabricates silicon for many chip makers like Apple Inc.AAPL,and others, said it plans to spend $28 billion to build out its facilities in 2021.Intel Corp.&nbsp;has shied away from a plan to outsource manufacturing chips to companies like TSMC, after encountering problems with its own process technology.<blockquote>一个典型的例子是，第三方制造巨头台积电公司（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.）表示，计划在2021年斥资280亿美元建设其工厂。在遇到自身工艺技术问题后，英特尔公司放弃了将制造芯片外包给台积电等公司的计划。</blockquote> AMD&nbsp;said it expects a strong 2021 earlier this year, and announcednew laptop and data-center chips.Qualcomm Inc.&nbsp;also reported strong results despite shortages forecast a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, Micron appears positioned to take advantage in&nbsp;a rebound in demand.<blockquote>AMD 表示，预计 2021 年将表现强劲，并宣布推出新的笔记本电脑和数据中心芯片。高通公司也报告了强劲的业绩，尽管短缺预计将出现 V 形复苏。与此同时，美光似乎有能力利用需求反弹。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Worldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year, and that’s good news for semiconductor stocks<blockquote>全球芯片短缺预计将持续到明年，这对半导体股来说是个好消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWorldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year, and that’s good news for semiconductor stocks<blockquote>全球芯片短缺预计将持续到明年，这对半导体股来说是个好消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-25 14:24\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nChip stocks are trading at record highs amid demand spike due to pandemic and other factors, but analysts say continuing short supply of semis are likely to send them higher despite memories of 2018 shortage that led to oversupply glut<blockquote>由于大流行和其他因素导致需求激增，芯片股的交易价格创历史新高，但分析师表示，尽管人们记得 2018 年短缺导致供应过剩，但半成品的持续供应短缺可能会推高芯片股</blockquote> A global shortage of semiconductors has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of the year as COVID-19 pushes the world further into the digital realm and the industry struggles to keep up with demand.<blockquote>全球半导体短缺已将芯片库存推至历史新高，分析师预计，随着 COVID-19 将世界进一步推向数字领域，以及该行业难以满足需求，芯片供应短缺至少将持续到今年年底。</blockquote> Chips have been hard to come by for auto makers and consumers, causing difficulties in a range of industries. The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.<blockquote>对于汽车制造商和消费者来说，芯片一直很难买到，给一系列行业带来了困难。原因似乎是人们在 COVID-19 大流行期间抢购电子产品导致需求增加、满足这一需求的制造能力有限以及中美贸易战的综合作用。</blockquote> Maribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Research, told MarketWatch in an interview the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.<blockquote>洛佩兹研究公司（Lopez Research）首席分析师玛丽贝尔-洛佩兹（Maribel Lopez）在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示，芯片行业正面临着供需问题的 “完美风暴”，这些问题不太可能很快得到解决。</blockquote> “Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said. “You can’t buy a dumb product.”<blockquote>“洛佩兹说：”除非我们出现严重的经济崩溃（这显然是有可能的），否则现在发生的一件事是，几乎你买的任何东西都会有芯片。“你买不到愚蠢的产品。”</blockquote> While high demand for mobile-device chips in 2020 was expected, the surge in demand for PC-based chips was not, she said. The trend of shrinking chips down to where they can fit in places they haven’t been able to fit before has made the manufacturing process more complex, Lopez noted. The pandemic took those trends and placed an added level of volatility on the supply chains and manufacturing practices dealing with them.<blockquote>她说，虽然预计2020年对移动设备芯片的高需求，但对基于PC的芯片的需求激增并非如此。洛佩兹指出，将芯片缩小到以前无法安装的地方的趋势使得制造过程变得更加复杂。疫情抓住了这些趋势，并给供应链和应对这些趋势的制造实践带来了额外的波动性。</blockquote> The full impact of the chip shortage, however, didn’t hit home to the wider market until General Motors Co.&nbsp;,Ford Motor Co.&nbsp;and other auto makers said recently they’ve had to shut down production on certain models&nbsp;because of a lack of semiconductors.<blockquote>然而，直到通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他汽车制造商最近表示，由于缺乏半导体，他们不得不停止某些车型的生产，芯片短缺的全部影响才波及到更广泛的市场。</blockquote> Amid growing concerns from industry leaders,President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order Wednesday&nbsp;calling for the review of critical U.S. manufacturing supply chains that may rely too much on China, particularly those involving chips and high-capacity batteries.<blockquote>由于行业领袖的担忧日益加剧，乔·拜登总统将于周三签署一项行政命令，呼吁审查可能过度依赖中国的美国关键制造业供应链，特别是涉及芯片和高容量电池的供应链。</blockquote> While the shortage has caused pain for consumers and companies, it has not hurt the chip industry. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur said this past earnings season was the first the firm has tracked where all covered chip makers not only beat estimates for the quarter but topped expectations for forecasts.<blockquote>虽然短缺给消费者和企业带来了痛苦，但并没有伤害芯片行业。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔 (Harlan Sur) 在最近的一份报告中表示，过去的财报季是该公司追踪的第一个财报季，所有涵盖的芯片制造商不仅超出了本季度的预期，而且超出了预测预期。</blockquote> Chip stocks have soared to all-time highs. The PHLX Semiconductor Index,which tracks dozens of the largest chip-related stocks, has gained more than 70% in the past 12 months, compared with a 21% gain on the S&amp;P 500 index,and a 47% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.<blockquote>芯片股飙升至历史新高。追踪数十只最大芯片相关股票的 PHLX 半导体指数在过去 12 个月中上涨了 70% 以上，而标普500指数上涨了 21%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 47%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2597bfd2bf84e110ca8642c9ba437a06\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"680\"><blockquote></blockquote> Analysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space. Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”<blockquote>不过，分析师认为，随着需求推高价格并提振整个半导体领域的公司，未来可能会有更多涨幅。苏尔说，尽管库存基本面似乎捉襟见肘，“我们认为半导体公司的发货量比目前的需求水平低 10% 到 30%，供应至少需要 3-4 个季度才能赶上需求，然后客户/分销渠道的库存再需要 1-2 个季度才能补充到正常水平”。</blockquote> Susquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland recently said he expects chip shortages will only get worse heading into the spring. Lead times, or the amount of time an order is placed between it delivery, for semiconductors are entering a “danger zone” of above 14 weeks, the longest they’ve been since the last chip boom of 2018, Rolland said.<blockquote>萨斯奎哈纳金融分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰最近表示，他预计进入春季，芯片短缺只会变得更加严重。罗兰说，半导体的交货时间（即从交货到交货之间下订单的时间）正在进入一个超过 14 周的 “危险区”，这是自 2018 年上一次芯片繁荣以来最长的一次。</blockquote> While that may be good in the short term for chip suppliers and makers, with some companies estimating demand outstripping supply for several quarters, in the long run it could backfire if not managed well, Rolland said.<blockquote>罗兰表示，虽然这在短期内对芯片供应商和制造商来说可能是好事，一些公司估计需求将在几个季度内超过供应，但从长远来看，如果管理不善，可能会适得其反。</blockquote> The chip industry still remembers what happened less than three years ago when it was drowning in a glut of oversupply. Back then, customersoverbought supplies of chipsto lock in lower prices because prices had soared in the 2018 chip boom, causing a steep drop in demand, leaving chip makers with large inventories and plummeting stock prices. Nvidia Corp.,Micron Technology Inc.&nbsp;and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.,along with other industry players were&nbsp;all&nbsp;adversely&nbsp;affected&nbsp;by the glut.<blockquote>芯片行业仍然记得不到三年前发生的事情，当时它正沉浸在供过于求的过剩中。当时，客户超买了芯片供应，锁定了较低的价格，因为在2018年芯片繁荣时期价格飙升，导致需求急剧下降，导致芯片制造商库存大增，股价暴跌。英伟达公司、美光科技公司和先进微设备公司以及其他行业参与者都受到了产能过剩的不利影响。</blockquote> Those companies are doing what they can to avoid a repeat of the pain that came at the end of the 2018 boom and resulting shortage.Nvidia, for example,said it hoped to ease shortages of gaming cards by launching a chip designed for cryptocurrency mining as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin&nbsp;and ethereum&nbsp;continue soaring to record highs.<blockquote>这些公司正在尽最大努力避免重蹈 2018 年繁荣结束时的痛苦以及由此导致的短缺。例如，英伟达表示，随着比特币和以太币等加密货币继续飙升至历史新高，它希望通过推出一款专为加密货币挖矿设计的芯片来缓解游戏卡短缺的问题。</blockquote> While claims of “this time it’s different” should always be taken with a grain of salt, it may very well be different this time around given the unprecedented mix of factors the world has gone through over the past year. Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin, who follows tech supply chain issues, is more concerned with continued supply-chain disruptions than he is over-ordering.<blockquote>虽然 “这次不同 ”的说法应该始终持保留态度，但鉴于世界在过去一年中经历了前所未有的多种因素，这一次很可能会有所不同。Stifel 分析师 Matthew Sheerin 关注科技供应链问题，他更关心持续的供应链中断，而不是过度订购。</blockquote> “We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red&nbsp;flag,” Sheering said.<blockquote>“Sheering 说：”我们从无数零部件供应商和分销商那里听到了关于订单到账单水平上升和积压订单不断增加的问题，这通常是一个'双重订购'的危险信号。</blockquote> “We don’t see any major correction on the horizon, given ongoing supply constraints as well as continued optimism about improving demand in 2H21,” the Stifel analyst said. “We remain more concerned with continued supply disruptions, and increased materials costs, than we do an imminent multi-quarter inventory correction.”<blockquote>“Stifel 分析师说：”鉴于持续的供应限制以及对 21 年下半年需求改善的持续乐观态度，我们认为不会出现任何重大调整。“我们仍然更关心持续的供应中断和材料成本增加，而不是即将到来的多季度库存调整。”</blockquote> Chip-equipment suppliers seem confident that chip manufacturers will build out their capacity because of the shortage and next-generation designs that won’t be well served by existing fabs.Applied Materials Inc.&nbsp;said last week it expects to supply a decade-plus investment cycle for chip makers. That followed strong earnings and outlooks from chip-making equipment companiesKLA Corp.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lam Research Corp.&nbsp;noting that chip makers needed to build out their manufacturing capacities even further.<blockquote>芯片设备供应商似乎对芯片制造商扩大产能充满信心，因为现有晶圆厂无法很好地满足下一代设计需求。此前，芯片制造设备公司 KLA Corp. 和 Lam Research Corp. 公布了强劲的盈利和前景，并指出芯片制造商需要进一步扩大其制造能力。</blockquote> Case in point,Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,the third-party manufacturing giant that fabricates silicon for many chip makers like Apple Inc.AAPL,and others, said it plans to spend $28 billion to build out its facilities in 2021.Intel Corp.&nbsp;has shied away from a plan to outsource manufacturing chips to companies like TSMC, after encountering problems with its own process technology.<blockquote>一个典型的例子是，第三方制造巨头台积电公司（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.）表示，计划在2021年斥资280亿美元建设其工厂。在遇到自身工艺技术问题后，英特尔公司放弃了将制造芯片外包给台积电等公司的计划。</blockquote> AMD&nbsp;said it expects a strong 2021 earlier this year, and announcednew laptop and data-center chips.Qualcomm Inc.&nbsp;also reported strong results despite shortages forecast a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, Micron appears positioned to take advantage in&nbsp;a rebound in demand.<blockquote>AMD 表示，预计 2021 年将表现强劲，并宣布推出新的笔记本电脑和数据中心芯片。高通公司也报告了强劲的业绩，尽管短缺预计将出现 V 形复苏。与此同时，美光似乎有能力利用需求反弹。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worldwide-chip-shortage-expected-to-last-into-next-year-and-thats-good-news-for-semiconductor-stocks-11614020156?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KLAC":"科磊","QCOM":"高通","GM":"通用汽车","AMD":"美国超微公司","SOX":"费城半导体指数","NVDA":"英伟达","LRCX":"拉姆研究","MU":"美光科技","INTC":"英特尔","ASML":"阿斯麦","SSNLF":"三星电子","AMAT":"应用材料","TSM":"台积电","F":"福特汽车","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worldwide-chip-shortage-expected-to-last-into-next-year-and-thats-good-news-for-semiconductor-stocks-11614020156?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1147687162","content_text":"Chip stocks are trading at record highs amid demand spike due to pandemic and other factors, but analysts say continuing short supply of semis are likely to send them higher despite memories of 2018 shortage that led to oversupply glut\nA global shortage of semiconductors has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of the year as COVID-19 pushes the world further into the digital realm and the industry struggles to keep up with demand.\nChips have been hard to come by for auto makers and consumers, causing difficulties in a range of industries. The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.\nMaribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Research, told MarketWatch in an interview the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.\n“Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said. “You can’t buy a dumb product.”\nWhile high demand for mobile-device chips in 2020 was expected, the surge in demand for PC-based chips was not, she said. The trend of shrinking chips down to where they can fit in places they haven’t been able to fit before has made the manufacturing process more complex, Lopez noted. The pandemic took those trends and placed an added level of volatility on the supply chains and manufacturing practices dealing with them.\nThe full impact of the chip shortage, however, didn’t hit home to the wider market until General Motors Co. ,Ford Motor Co. and other auto makers said recently they’ve had to shut down production on certain models because of a lack of semiconductors.\nAmid growing concerns from industry leaders,President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order Wednesday calling for the review of critical U.S. manufacturing supply chains that may rely too much on China, particularly those involving chips and high-capacity batteries.\nWhile the shortage has caused pain for consumers and companies, it has not hurt the chip industry. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur said this past earnings season was the first the firm has tracked where all covered chip makers not only beat estimates for the quarter but topped expectations for forecasts.\nChip stocks have soared to all-time highs. The PHLX Semiconductor Index,which tracks dozens of the largest chip-related stocks, has gained more than 70% in the past 12 months, compared with a 21% gain on the S&P 500 index,and a 47% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.\n\nAnalysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space. Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”\nSusquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland recently said he expects chip shortages will only get worse heading into the spring. Lead times, or the amount of time an order is placed between it delivery, for semiconductors are entering a “danger zone” of above 14 weeks, the longest they’ve been since the last chip boom of 2018, Rolland said.\nWhile that may be good in the short term for chip suppliers and makers, with some companies estimating demand outstripping supply for several quarters, in the long run it could backfire if not managed well, Rolland said.\nThe chip industry still remembers what happened less than three years ago when it was drowning in a glut of oversupply. Back then, customersoverbought supplies of chipsto lock in lower prices because prices had soared in the 2018 chip boom, causing a steep drop in demand, leaving chip makers with large inventories and plummeting stock prices. Nvidia Corp.,Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.,along with other industry players were all adversely affected by the glut.\nThose companies are doing what they can to avoid a repeat of the pain that came at the end of the 2018 boom and resulting shortage.Nvidia, for example,said it hoped to ease shortages of gaming cards by launching a chip designed for cryptocurrency mining as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum continue soaring to record highs.\nWhile claims of “this time it’s different” should always be taken with a grain of salt, it may very well be different this time around given the unprecedented mix of factors the world has gone through over the past year. Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin, who follows tech supply chain issues, is more concerned with continued supply-chain disruptions than he is over-ordering.\n“We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red flag,” Sheering said.\n“We don’t see any major correction on the horizon, given ongoing supply constraints as well as continued optimism about improving demand in 2H21,” the Stifel analyst said. “We remain more concerned with continued supply disruptions, and increased materials costs, than we do an imminent multi-quarter inventory correction.”\nChip-equipment suppliers seem confident that chip manufacturers will build out their capacity because of the shortage and next-generation designs that won’t be well served by existing fabs.Applied Materials Inc. said last week it expects to supply a decade-plus investment cycle for chip makers. That followed strong earnings and outlooks from chip-making equipment companiesKLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp. noting that chip makers needed to build out their manufacturing capacities even further.\nCase in point,Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,the third-party manufacturing giant that fabricates silicon for many chip makers like Apple Inc.AAPL,and others, said it plans to spend $28 billion to build out its facilities in 2021.Intel Corp. has shied away from a plan to outsource manufacturing chips to companies like TSMC, after encountering problems with its own process technology.\nAMD said it expects a strong 2021 earlier this year, and announcednew laptop and data-center chips.Qualcomm Inc. also reported strong results despite shortages forecast a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, Micron appears positioned to take advantage in a rebound in demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"MU":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"F":0.9,"KLAC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"LRCX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":38,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/361294059"}