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2021-03-29

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Stock market rally is sputtering out, with tech the biggest risk to S&P 500, says this strategist<blockquote>这位策略师表示，股市涨势缓慢，科技股是标普500面临的最大风险</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":355916734,"tweetId":"355916734","gmtCreate":1617023684228,"gmtModify":1634523088435,"author":{"id":3566800809486659,"idStr":"3566800809486659","authorId":3566800809486659,"authorIdStr":"3566800809486659","name":"Huishan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983d32ca35339ced22384528fbe71d37","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Great ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Great ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355916734","repostId":1175939614,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175939614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617021499,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175939614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market rally is sputtering out, with tech the biggest risk to S&P 500, says this strategist<blockquote>这位策略师表示，股市涨势缓慢，科技股是标普500面临的最大风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175939614","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The S&P 500 index touched a record high on Friday for the 15th time this year, but stock market futu","content":"The S&amp;P 500 index touched a record high on Friday for the 15th time this year, but stock market futures are pointing to a more muted start to the trading week.<blockquote>周五，标普500指数今年第15次触及历史新高，但股市期货显示交易周开局将更加平淡。</blockquote> Even if stocks can keep rallying, the upside will be very limited, said Matt Maley, a strategist at investment firm Miller Tabak + Co., in ourcall of the day.<blockquote>投资公司Miller Tabak+Co.的策略师Matt Maley在我们的今日看涨期权.</blockquote> Maley said there “is no question that the stock market could rise further from current levels,” but his team believes that any more gains won’t be due to fundamentals.<blockquote>马利表示，“毫无疑问，股市可能会从当前水平进一步上涨”，但他的团队认为，任何进一步的上涨都不会是由于基本面。</blockquote> This is largely because the market has already priced in fundamental growth expectations over the next 12 to 18 months. Some of those headline projections include year-over-year economic growth estimates as strong as 8% for 2021 and earnings growth of 25% this year.<blockquote>这在很大程度上是因为市场已经消化了未来12至18个月的基本面增长预期。其中一些主要预测包括2021年经济同比增长高达8%，今年盈利增长25%。</blockquote> And the strategist said that these bullish growth projections are out of focus. “Those are extraordinary numbers, but if you compare them to a normal year, they’re not anywhere near as impressive as they initially seem,” Maley said. The year-over-year estimates are comparisons to 2020—when the global economy all but shut down and company earnings were battered by the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>这位策略师表示，这些看涨的增长预测脱离了焦点。马利说：“这些数字非同寻常，但如果你将它们与正常年份进行比较，就会发现它们远不像最初看起来那么令人印象深刻。”同比预测是与2020年的比较，当时全球经济几乎关闭，公司盈利受到COVID-19大流行的打击。</blockquote> “More importantly, they do not justify a further rally in the stock market,” Maley said. “Something else is going to have to fuel a rally of significance.”<blockquote>“更重要的是，它们并不能证明股市进一步上涨的合理性，”马利说。“必须有其他事情来推动重要的反弹。”</blockquote> Valuations are “extreme,” according to Maley, and this expensive market “tells us that the upside is very limited,” with the risks “quite high” that a full-blown correction is coming.<blockquote>马利表示，估值“极端”，这个昂贵的市场“告诉我们，上涨空间非常有限”，全面调整即将到来的风险“相当高”。</blockquote> The investment firm’s main concern right now is the divergence between the S&amp;P 500SPXindex and technology stocks. The blue-chip index can hold up if there is weakness in the tech sector, but “once that weakness becomes more pronounced, it has always had a negative impact on the broader stock market,” Maley said.<blockquote>该投资公司目前主要担心的是标准普尔500SPX指数与科技股之间的背离。马利表示，如果科技行业疲软，蓝筹股指数可以支撑，但“一旦这种疲软变得更加明显，它总是会对更广泛的股市产生负面影响”。</blockquote> Every time the NasdaqCOMPhas fallen between 12% and 14% in the last 40 years, it has created “material pullback” in the S&amp;P 500, the strategist said. “If that correction becomes more than 15% in the Nasdaq, the S&amp;P has always fallen at least 10% as well (and usually quite a bit more than 10%),” Maley said.<blockquote>这位策略师表示，过去40年来，纳斯达克指数每次下跌12%至14%，都会在标普500造成“实质性回调”。马利表示：“如果纳斯达克的调整幅度超过15%，标准普尔指数也总是下跌至少10%（通常会超过10%）。”</blockquote> The divergence between the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq is reasserting itself once again, Maley said. If the tech-heavy index moves much lower, it will “raise a serious warning flag” for both the Nasdaq and the broader stock market.<blockquote>马利说，标普500和纳斯达克之间的分歧再次凸显出来。如果以科技股为主的指数大幅走低，将对纳斯达克和更广泛的股市“发出严重的警告信号”。</blockquote> The buzz<blockquote>嗡嗡声</blockquote> The massive container ship that has blocked the Suez Canal and disrupted global trade for the last week is still stuck, but perhaps not for long. The Ever Givenwas successfully refloatedearly on Monday morning and tug boats are working to straighten the ship out.<blockquote>上周堵塞苏伊士运河并扰乱全球贸易的大型集装箱船仍被困，但可能不会持续太久。周一早上，Ever Given号成功重新浮出水面，拖船正在努力将船扶正。</blockquote> The end of last week was marked bymassive block tradesworth around $30 billion, triggered by amargin call of U.S. investor Archegos Capital Management. The selloff pushed shares in media groups ViacomCBSVIACAand DiscoveryDISCAdown more than 27% on Friday and hit some Chinese internet stocks.<blockquote>上周末，由美国投资者Archegos Capital Management的阿玛金·看涨期权(Amargin Murphy)引发了价值约300亿美元的大规模大宗交易。此次抛售导致媒体集团ViacomCBSViacaand DiscoveryDisca的股价周五下跌超过27%，并打击了一些中国互联网股票。</blockquote> And banks tied to the fire sale on Fridayare feeling the heat. Shares in Japan’s NomuraJP:8604and Switzerland’s Credit SuisseCH:CSGNdived on Monday,after both groups extended creditto a major client that couldn’t meet its obligations. TheSwiss group said lossesfrom exiting positions as a result could have a “highly significant and material” impact on earnings.<blockquote>与周五大甩卖相关的银行也感受到了压力。日本野村证券（NomuraJP：8604）和瑞士瑞信银行（Credit SuisseCH：CSGN）的股价周一暴跌，此前这两家银行都向一家无法履行义务的主要客户提供了信贷。这家瑞士集团表示，因此退出头寸造成的损失可能会对盈利产生“非常重大和实质性”的影响。</blockquote> It is a light day on the economic front, with the Chicago Fed national activity index for February due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by existing home sales data for February at 10 a.m.<blockquote>今天是经济方面轻松的一天，芝加哥联储2月份全国活动指数将于上午8:30公布。东部地区，随后是上午10点的2月份成屋销售数据。</blockquote> Lawmakers in Albany reached a deal on Saturday toallow sales of cannabis for recreational use, opening the door for New York to join the growing list of states that have legalized marijuana. A vote on the bill could come by Tuesday.<blockquote>奥尔巴尼的立法者周六达成协议，允许销售用于娱乐用途的大麻，为纽约加入越来越多的大麻合法化州的行列打开了大门。对该法案的投票可能会在周二进行。</blockquote> British online car retailerCazoo is set to floaton the New York Stock Exchange in a listing worth $7 billion, after agreeing to a merger deal with a blank-check, special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Cazoo’s planned merger with AJAX I will bring the SPAC’s billionaire investor Dan Och onto the company’s board.<blockquote>英国在线汽车零售商Cazoo在同意与一家空白支票特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)达成合并协议后，将在纽约证券交易所上市，价值70亿美元。Cazoo计划与AJAX I的合并将使SPAC的亿万富翁投资者Dan Och进入公司董事会。</blockquote> The markets<blockquote>市场</blockquote> U.S. stock market futures are pointing downDJIA FUTURESSP 500 FUTURESNASDAQ 100 FUTURES,set for a weak open to start the new trading week.Bank stocks remain under pressurein the fallout from Friday’s Archegos unwinds, with Deutsche BankXE:DBKand UBSUBSamong the fallers and shares in Goldman SachsGSand Morgan StanleyMSlower in the premarket.<blockquote>美国股市期货下跌道指期货标准普尔500指数期货纳斯达克100指数期货开盘疲软，开启新的交易周。受周五Archegos解盘影响，银行股仍面临压力，德意志银行XE：DBK和UBSubsA跌幅居前，高盛和摩根士丹利股价盘前走低。</blockquote> European indexes were mixedUK:UKXDX:DAXFR:PX1while Asian equitiesJP:NIKHK:HSICN:SHCOMPfinished Monday in the green.<blockquote>欧洲股指涨跌互现UK：UKXDX：DAXFR：PX1，而亚洲股指JP：NIKHK：HSICN：SHCOP周一收盘上涨。</blockquote> The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2012ecbcf58fc6082ae302c199e922\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\">The market “is in a very healthy place right now,” said Michael Batnick ofThe Irrelevant Investorfinancial blog. In our chart of the day, Batnick shows that 93% of the stocks in the S&amp;P 500 are above their 200-day moving average—the highest reading since 2013 levels.<blockquote>无关投资者金融博客的迈克尔·巴特尼克表示，市场“目前处于非常健康的状态”。在我们的当日图表中，Batnick显示标普500 93%的股票均高于200日移动平均线，这是自2013年以来的最高读数。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market rally is sputtering out, with tech the biggest risk to S&P 500, says this strategist<blockquote>这位策略师表示，股市涨势缓慢，科技股是标普500面临的最大风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market rally is sputtering out, with tech the biggest risk to S&P 500, says this strategist<blockquote>这位策略师表示，股市涨势缓慢，科技股是标普500面临的最大风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-29 20:38\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index touched a record high on Friday for the 15th time this year, but stock market futures are pointing to a more muted start to the trading week.<blockquote>周五，标普500指数今年第15次触及历史新高，但股市期货显示交易周开局将更加平淡。</blockquote> Even if stocks can keep rallying, the upside will be very limited, said Matt Maley, a strategist at investment firm Miller Tabak + Co., in ourcall of the day.<blockquote>投资公司Miller Tabak+Co.的策略师Matt Maley在我们的今日看涨期权.</blockquote> Maley said there “is no question that the stock market could rise further from current levels,” but his team believes that any more gains won’t be due to fundamentals.<blockquote>马利表示，“毫无疑问，股市可能会从当前水平进一步上涨”，但他的团队认为，任何进一步的上涨都不会是由于基本面。</blockquote> This is largely because the market has already priced in fundamental growth expectations over the next 12 to 18 months. Some of those headline projections include year-over-year economic growth estimates as strong as 8% for 2021 and earnings growth of 25% this year.<blockquote>这在很大程度上是因为市场已经消化了未来12至18个月的基本面增长预期。其中一些主要预测包括2021年经济同比增长高达8%，今年盈利增长25%。</blockquote> And the strategist said that these bullish growth projections are out of focus. “Those are extraordinary numbers, but if you compare them to a normal year, they’re not anywhere near as impressive as they initially seem,” Maley said. The year-over-year estimates are comparisons to 2020—when the global economy all but shut down and company earnings were battered by the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>这位策略师表示，这些看涨的增长预测脱离了焦点。马利说：“这些数字非同寻常，但如果你将它们与正常年份进行比较，就会发现它们远不像最初看起来那么令人印象深刻。”同比预测是与2020年的比较，当时全球经济几乎关闭，公司盈利受到COVID-19大流行的打击。</blockquote> “More importantly, they do not justify a further rally in the stock market,” Maley said. “Something else is going to have to fuel a rally of significance.”<blockquote>“更重要的是，它们并不能证明股市进一步上涨的合理性，”马利说。“必须有其他事情来推动重要的反弹。”</blockquote> Valuations are “extreme,” according to Maley, and this expensive market “tells us that the upside is very limited,” with the risks “quite high” that a full-blown correction is coming.<blockquote>马利表示，估值“极端”，这个昂贵的市场“告诉我们，上涨空间非常有限”，全面调整即将到来的风险“相当高”。</blockquote> The investment firm’s main concern right now is the divergence between the S&amp;P 500SPXindex and technology stocks. The blue-chip index can hold up if there is weakness in the tech sector, but “once that weakness becomes more pronounced, it has always had a negative impact on the broader stock market,” Maley said.<blockquote>该投资公司目前主要担心的是标准普尔500SPX指数与科技股之间的背离。马利表示，如果科技行业疲软，蓝筹股指数可以支撑，但“一旦这种疲软变得更加明显，它总是会对更广泛的股市产生负面影响”。</blockquote> Every time the NasdaqCOMPhas fallen between 12% and 14% in the last 40 years, it has created “material pullback” in the S&amp;P 500, the strategist said. “If that correction becomes more than 15% in the Nasdaq, the S&amp;P has always fallen at least 10% as well (and usually quite a bit more than 10%),” Maley said.<blockquote>这位策略师表示，过去40年来，纳斯达克指数每次下跌12%至14%，都会在标普500造成“实质性回调”。马利表示：“如果纳斯达克的调整幅度超过15%，标准普尔指数也总是下跌至少10%（通常会超过10%）。”</blockquote> The divergence between the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq is reasserting itself once again, Maley said. If the tech-heavy index moves much lower, it will “raise a serious warning flag” for both the Nasdaq and the broader stock market.<blockquote>马利说，标普500和纳斯达克之间的分歧再次凸显出来。如果以科技股为主的指数大幅走低，将对纳斯达克和更广泛的股市“发出严重的警告信号”。</blockquote> The buzz<blockquote>嗡嗡声</blockquote> The massive container ship that has blocked the Suez Canal and disrupted global trade for the last week is still stuck, but perhaps not for long. The Ever Givenwas successfully refloatedearly on Monday morning and tug boats are working to straighten the ship out.<blockquote>上周堵塞苏伊士运河并扰乱全球贸易的大型集装箱船仍被困，但可能不会持续太久。周一早上，Ever Given号成功重新浮出水面，拖船正在努力将船扶正。</blockquote> The end of last week was marked bymassive block tradesworth around $30 billion, triggered by amargin call of U.S. investor Archegos Capital Management. The selloff pushed shares in media groups ViacomCBSVIACAand DiscoveryDISCAdown more than 27% on Friday and hit some Chinese internet stocks.<blockquote>上周末，由美国投资者Archegos Capital Management的阿玛金·看涨期权(Amargin Murphy)引发了价值约300亿美元的大规模大宗交易。此次抛售导致媒体集团ViacomCBSViacaand DiscoveryDisca的股价周五下跌超过27%，并打击了一些中国互联网股票。</blockquote> And banks tied to the fire sale on Fridayare feeling the heat. Shares in Japan’s NomuraJP:8604and Switzerland’s Credit SuisseCH:CSGNdived on Monday,after both groups extended creditto a major client that couldn’t meet its obligations. TheSwiss group said lossesfrom exiting positions as a result could have a “highly significant and material” impact on earnings.<blockquote>与周五大甩卖相关的银行也感受到了压力。日本野村证券（NomuraJP：8604）和瑞士瑞信银行（Credit SuisseCH：CSGN）的股价周一暴跌，此前这两家银行都向一家无法履行义务的主要客户提供了信贷。这家瑞士集团表示，因此退出头寸造成的损失可能会对盈利产生“非常重大和实质性”的影响。</blockquote> It is a light day on the economic front, with the Chicago Fed national activity index for February due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by existing home sales data for February at 10 a.m.<blockquote>今天是经济方面轻松的一天，芝加哥联储2月份全国活动指数将于上午8:30公布。东部地区，随后是上午10点的2月份成屋销售数据。</blockquote> Lawmakers in Albany reached a deal on Saturday toallow sales of cannabis for recreational use, opening the door for New York to join the growing list of states that have legalized marijuana. A vote on the bill could come by Tuesday.<blockquote>奥尔巴尼的立法者周六达成协议，允许销售用于娱乐用途的大麻，为纽约加入越来越多的大麻合法化州的行列打开了大门。对该法案的投票可能会在周二进行。</blockquote> British online car retailerCazoo is set to floaton the New York Stock Exchange in a listing worth $7 billion, after agreeing to a merger deal with a blank-check, special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Cazoo’s planned merger with AJAX I will bring the SPAC’s billionaire investor Dan Och onto the company’s board.<blockquote>英国在线汽车零售商Cazoo在同意与一家空白支票特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)达成合并协议后，将在纽约证券交易所上市，价值70亿美元。Cazoo计划与AJAX I的合并将使SPAC的亿万富翁投资者Dan Och进入公司董事会。</blockquote> The markets<blockquote>市场</blockquote> U.S. stock market futures are pointing downDJIA FUTURESSP 500 FUTURESNASDAQ 100 FUTURES,set for a weak open to start the new trading week.Bank stocks remain under pressurein the fallout from Friday’s Archegos unwinds, with Deutsche BankXE:DBKand UBSUBSamong the fallers and shares in Goldman SachsGSand Morgan StanleyMSlower in the premarket.<blockquote>美国股市期货下跌道指期货标准普尔500指数期货纳斯达克100指数期货开盘疲软，开启新的交易周。受周五Archegos解盘影响，银行股仍面临压力，德意志银行XE：DBK和UBSubsA跌幅居前，高盛和摩根士丹利股价盘前走低。</blockquote> European indexes were mixedUK:UKXDX:DAXFR:PX1while Asian equitiesJP:NIKHK:HSICN:SHCOMPfinished Monday in the green.<blockquote>欧洲股指涨跌互现UK：UKXDX：DAXFR：PX1，而亚洲股指JP：NIKHK：HSICN：SHCOP周一收盘上涨。</blockquote> The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2012ecbcf58fc6082ae302c199e922\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\">The market “is in a very healthy place right now,” said Michael Batnick ofThe Irrelevant Investorfinancial blog. In our chart of the day, Batnick shows that 93% of the stocks in the S&amp;P 500 are above their 200-day moving average—the highest reading since 2013 levels.<blockquote>无关投资者金融博客的迈克尔·巴特尼克表示，市场“目前处于非常健康的状态”。在我们的当日图表中，Batnick显示标普500 93%的股票均高于200日移动平均线，这是自2013年以来的最高读数。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-rally-is-sputtering-out-with-tech-the-biggest-risk-to-s-p-500-says-this-strategist-11617016581\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-rally-is-sputtering-out-with-tech-the-biggest-risk-to-s-p-500-says-this-strategist-11617016581","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175939614","content_text":"The S&P 500 index touched a record high on Friday for the 15th time this year, but stock market futures are pointing to a more muted start to the trading week.\nEven if stocks can keep rallying, the upside will be very limited, said Matt Maley, a strategist at investment firm Miller Tabak + Co., in ourcall of the day.\nMaley said there “is no question that the stock market could rise further from current levels,” but his team believes that any more gains won’t be due to fundamentals.\nThis is largely because the market has already priced in fundamental growth expectations over the next 12 to 18 months. Some of those headline projections include year-over-year economic growth estimates as strong as 8% for 2021 and earnings growth of 25% this year.\nAnd the strategist said that these bullish growth projections are out of focus. “Those are extraordinary numbers, but if you compare them to a normal year, they’re not anywhere near as impressive as they initially seem,” Maley said. The year-over-year estimates are comparisons to 2020—when the global economy all but shut down and company earnings were battered by the COVID-19 pandemic.\n“More importantly, they do not justify a further rally in the stock market,” Maley said. “Something else is going to have to fuel a rally of significance.”\nValuations are “extreme,” according to Maley, and this expensive market “tells us that the upside is very limited,” with the risks “quite high” that a full-blown correction is coming.\nThe investment firm’s main concern right now is the divergence between the S&P 500SPXindex and technology stocks. The blue-chip index can hold up if there is weakness in the tech sector, but “once that weakness becomes more pronounced, it has always had a negative impact on the broader stock market,” Maley said.\nEvery time the NasdaqCOMPhas fallen between 12% and 14% in the last 40 years, it has created “material pullback” in the S&P 500, the strategist said. “If that correction becomes more than 15% in the Nasdaq, the S&P has always fallen at least 10% as well (and usually quite a bit more than 10%),” Maley said.\nThe divergence between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is reasserting itself once again, Maley said. If the tech-heavy index moves much lower, it will “raise a serious warning flag” for both the Nasdaq and the broader stock market.\nThe buzz\nThe massive container ship that has blocked the Suez Canal and disrupted global trade for the last week is still stuck, but perhaps not for long. The Ever Givenwas successfully refloatedearly on Monday morning and tug boats are working to straighten the ship out.\nThe end of last week was marked bymassive block tradesworth around $30 billion, triggered by amargin call of U.S. investor Archegos Capital Management. The selloff pushed shares in media groups ViacomCBSVIACAand DiscoveryDISCAdown more than 27% on Friday and hit some Chinese internet stocks.\nAnd banks tied to the fire sale on Fridayare feeling the heat. Shares in Japan’s NomuraJP:8604and Switzerland’s Credit SuisseCH:CSGNdived on Monday,after both groups extended creditto a major client that couldn’t meet its obligations. TheSwiss group said lossesfrom exiting positions as a result could have a “highly significant and material” impact on earnings.\nIt is a light day on the economic front, with the Chicago Fed national activity index for February due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by existing home sales data for February at 10 a.m.\nLawmakers in Albany reached a deal on Saturday toallow sales of cannabis for recreational use, opening the door for New York to join the growing list of states that have legalized marijuana. A vote on the bill could come by Tuesday.\nBritish online car retailerCazoo is set to floaton the New York Stock Exchange in a listing worth $7 billion, after agreeing to a merger deal with a blank-check, special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Cazoo’s planned merger with AJAX I will bring the SPAC’s billionaire investor Dan Och onto the company’s board.\nThe markets\nU.S. stock market futures are pointing downDJIA FUTURESSP 500 FUTURESNASDAQ 100 FUTURES,set for a weak open to start the new trading week.Bank stocks remain under pressurein the fallout from Friday’s Archegos unwinds, with Deutsche BankXE:DBKand UBSUBSamong the fallers and shares in Goldman SachsGSand Morgan StanleyMSlower in the premarket.\nEuropean indexes were mixedUK:UKXDX:DAXFR:PX1while Asian equitiesJP:NIKHK:HSICN:SHCOMPfinished Monday in the green.\nThe chart\nThe market “is in a very healthy place right now,” said Michael Batnick ofThe Irrelevant Investorfinancial blog. In our chart of the day, Batnick shows that 93% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average—the highest reading since 2013 levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/355916734"}