When you say hedge funds it ki_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-03-29

When you say hedge funds it kind of takes off some credibility...

Hedge Fund CIO: "Sinners Have Become The System And Will Be Eternally Supported By Policy"<blockquote>对冲基金CIO：“罪人已经成为系统，将永远受到政策的支持”</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":352785075,"tweetId":"352785075","gmtCreate":1617005463497,"gmtModify":1634523190195,"author":{"id":3571454418159222,"idStr":"3571454418159222","authorId":3571454418159222,"authorIdStr":"3571454418159222","name":"Meiw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>When you say hedge funds it kind of takes off some credibility...</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>When you say hedge funds it kind of takes off some credibility...</body></html>","text":"When you say hedge funds it kind of takes off some credibility...","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352785075","repostId":1141317956,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141317956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617003767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141317956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Fund CIO: \"Sinners Have Become The System And Will Be Eternally Supported By Policy\"<blockquote>对冲基金CIO：“罪人已经成为系统，将永远受到政策的支持”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141317956","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Sinners\n“At some point on the current path, policy makers will attempt to normalize,”said the CIO. W","content":"Sinners<blockquote>罪人</blockquote> “At some point on the current path, policy makers will attempt to normalize,”said the CIO. We were discussing sequencing, recognizing its centrality to macro trading, investing. “They will start by attempting to taper Fed purchases,” he said, the US central bank currently creating $120bln per month and using it to purchase debt. “Perhaps they signal that they intend to lower the deficit.”But of course, that would only be after they first lift the deficit to fund America’s coming $3trln Recovery Plan. “And at that point, the clock starts ticking,” he said.<blockquote>“在当前道路上的某个时刻，政策制定者将尝试正常化，”CIO说。我们在讨论排序，认识到它对宏观交易和投资的中心地位。他表示：“他们将首先尝试缩减美联储的购买规模。”美联储目前每月创造1200亿美元并用于购买债务。“也许他们发出了打算降低赤字的信号。”当然，这只是在他们首次取消赤字为美国即将到来的3万亿美元复苏计划提供资金之后。“到那时，时间就开始流逝了，”他说。</blockquote> “Even if one thinks the current policy path inevitably leads to a substantial inflation, there are enough orthodox policy makers that we can be confident they’ll try to avert that outcome,” continued the same CIO.“So what we need to figure out is how far they’ll let stocks and inflation run before they’re compelled to taper,”he said. “And then we’ll need to judge how long it will take for the economy and/or market to take a deep dive.” Not long. “When they then quickly pivot and aggressively ease, their predicament will be clear for all to see.”<blockquote>“即使有人认为当前的政策路径不可避免地导致大幅通胀，但有足够多的正统政策制定者，我们可以相信他们会尽力避免这种结果，”同一位首席信息官继续说道。“因此，我们需要弄清楚的是，在被迫缩减规模之前，他们会让股市和通胀走多远。”他说。“然后我们需要判断经济和/或市场需要多长时间才能深度下跌。”不会太久。“当他们迅速转向并积极放松时，他们的困境就会有目共睹。”</blockquote> “Given the size of the stimulus and deficits at this stage, if policy makers are seen to be unable to normalize in any material way, that will be the stage in the sequencing when the great reset begins,” explained the same CIO. “Markets at that point will move very fast.” Maintaining calm given current policy settings requires inflation expectations to remain anchored and investors to believe policy can be normalized. “I am often a bit early on the very big trades, but this whole sequence appears sure to play out over the coming three years.”<blockquote>“考虑到现阶段刺激和赤字的规模，如果政策制定者无法以任何实质性方式实现正常化，那么这将是大重置开始的顺序阶段，”同一位首席信息官解释道。“届时市场将会快速波动。”鉴于当前的政策环境，保持冷静需要通胀预期保持稳定，并让投资者相信政策可以正常化。“我经常在非常大的交易上有点早，但这整个序列似乎肯定会在未来三年内完成。”</blockquote> “The biggest macro change in the past 50yrs was the taming of inflation,” said Marco Polo, my favorite macro modeler. “Paul Volcker was a byproduct of the political choice to anchor inflation in a post-gold-standard world. It required great resolve, and management of a domestic financial crisis induced by the high interest rates needed to get the job done. Don Kohn observed that the Volcker master lesson ‘was to protect the system but not the sinner - and that required facts, analysis, and flexibility.’Volcker was the first Fed Chair who required a personal bodyguard.The Hunt brothers (silver), Penn Square and Continental Illinois (oil) and the entire Farm Credit System were all strained by his decisions and Volcker was the first Fed Chair who required a personal bodyguard. The resolve to tackling inflation cannot be overstated.”<blockquote>“过去50年来最大的宏观变化是抑制通货膨胀，”我最喜欢的宏观建模师马可波罗说。“保罗·沃尔克是在后金本位制世界中锚定通胀的政治选择的副产品。这需要巨大的决心，以及完成这项工作所需的高利率引发的国内金融危机的管理。唐·科恩观察到，沃尔克的大师课“是保护金融体系，而不是罪人——这需要事实、分析和灵活性。”沃尔克是第一位需要私人保镖的美联储主席。亨特兄弟（白银）、佩恩广场和伊利诺伊大陆（石油）以及整个农业信贷系统都因他的决定而紧张，沃尔克是第一位需要私人保镖的美联储主席。应对通胀的决心怎么强调都不为过。”</blockquote> “The virtuous cycle of declining government bond yields in the past three decades that followed Volcker’s attack on inflation has been an overwhelmingly positive impulse to financial portfolios,” explained Marco Polo. “Government bonds played a large role, directly or indirectly through other assets that benefited from lower bond yields. To illustrate the point, I built a simple dynamic portfolio of stocks, bonds, the US dollar, and commodities. Allocations to those asset classes are selected depending on the state of the macro economy.”<blockquote>马可波罗解释说：“在沃尔克攻击通胀之后的过去三十年里，政府债券收益率下降的良性循环对金融投资组合产生了压倒性的积极推动。”“政府债券发挥了很大的作用，直接或间接地通过受益于债券收益率下降的其他资产。为了说明这一点，我建立了一个简单的股票、债券、美元和大宗商品的动态投资组合。这些资产类别的配置是根据宏观经济的状况来选择的。”</blockquote> “When things are good and getting better, asset allocation is split between stocks and commodities; bonds are the asset allocation when things are good but weakening; long US dollar exposure is deployed in downturns; stocks and foreign currency allocations are the benchmark in early upturns,”continued Marco. “The states of the macro economy are probability weighted and rebalanced over time to arrive at a balanced portfolio. The annualized monthly return of such an approach since Sep 1981 is +7.5% with volatility of less than 6%. Not bad for a passive, blunt approach.”<blockquote>“当情况良好且变好时，资产配置在股票和大宗商品之间进行分割；当情况良好但变弱时，债券是资产配置；在低迷时，多头美元敞口被部署；股票和外币配置是早期上涨时的基准，”马可继续说道。“宏观经济的状态会随着时间的推移进行概率加权和再平衡，以达到平衡的投资组合。自1981年9月以来，这种方法的年化月回报率为+7.5%，波动性低于6%。对于被动、生硬的方法来说还不错。”</blockquote> “Let’s include a long-bond overlay to the asset allocation in all macro states so that the average gross portfolio exposure is 2x,” said Marco. “Think of this leverage as a move out the risk spectrum. The historical performance jumps to +11.5% and the Sharpe rises to more than 1.5x. Of course, asset managers did not initially have the foresight to implement such a portfolio nor did financial intermediaries have the risk appetite to provide short-term funding.But with time and reinforcement from policy actions that tell us sinners have now become the system and will thus be eternally supported by policy, portfolios have pushed far out the risk spectrum taking long duration exposure directly or indirectly. It is all the same trade.”<blockquote>马可表示：“让我们在所有宏观状态的资产配置中纳入长期债券叠加，以便平均总投资组合敞口为2倍。”“将这种杠杆视为脱离风险范围。历史表现跃升至+11.5%，夏普指数升至1.5倍以上。当然，资产管理公司最初并没有实施这样的投资组合的远见，也没有金融中介机构有提供短期资金的风险偏好。但随着时间的推移和政策行动的强化，告诉我们罪人现在已经成为系统，因此将永远得到政策的支持，投资组合已经远远超出了直接或间接长期敞口的风险范围。这都是同一个行业。”</blockquote> “Recent correlations reinforce the point.The US TIPs and Tesla daily correlation is nearly 30% this year.TIPs act like a low-beta play on highly valued growth companies. Both are bets on duration. The difference today from the past is today’s low starting point of bond yields. At steeply negative real yields and very low nominals, the role of bonds in a portfolio becomes heavily challenged. German bund performance in the Mar 2020 period is also a good reminder. Bund prices rose sharply over 7wks during the pandemic and reversed that move in 10-days.”<blockquote>“最近的相关性强化了这一点。今年，美国TIPs和特斯拉的每日相关性接近30%。TIPs就像是对高估值成长型公司的低贝塔游戏。两者都是对持续时间的押注。今天与过去的不同之处在于今天债券收益率的低起点。在实际收益率急剧为负且名义收益率非常低的情况下，债券在投资组合中的作用受到严重挑战。德国国债在2020年3月期间的表现也是一个很好的提醒。疫情期间，外滩价格在7周内大幅上涨，并在10天内扭转了这一走势。”</blockquote> “Bunds provided no protection to slower-moving asset allocators. Ten-year German real yields now trade -1.75%. They have no value as an investment, nor as a risk-mitigator,” said Marco. “Asset managers have no choice but to explore alternatives to bonds and find risk mitigators to long duration exposure. And official institutions have little choice but to lean against any undesired rise in ‘risk free’ yields.Everyone is a sinner now, the system is held hostage. After all, 44% of outstanding Treasury securities are held between the Fed and foreign official institutions. And at any wobble they buy more.”<blockquote>“德国国债没有为行动缓慢的资产配置者提供保护。十年期德国实际收益率目前为-1.75%。它们没有投资价值，也没有风险缓解工具的价值，”Marco说。“资产管理公司别无选择，只能探索债券的替代品，并寻找长期风险敞口的风险缓解措施。官方机构别无选择，只能依靠‘无风险’收益率的任何不良上升。现在每个人都是罪人，系统被扣为人质。毕竟，44%的未偿还国债是由美联储和外国官方机构持有的。每当出现波动时，他们就会购买更多。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Fund CIO: \"Sinners Have Become The System And Will Be Eternally Supported By Policy\"<blockquote>对冲基金CIO：“罪人已经成为系统，将永远受到政策的支持”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Fund CIO: \"Sinners Have Become The System And Will Be Eternally Supported By Policy\"<blockquote>对冲基金CIO：“罪人已经成为系统，将永远受到政策的支持”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-29 15:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSinners<blockquote>罪人</blockquote> “At some point on the current path, policy makers will attempt to normalize,”said the CIO. We were discussing sequencing, recognizing its centrality to macro trading, investing. “They will start by attempting to taper Fed purchases,” he said, the US central bank currently creating $120bln per month and using it to purchase debt. “Perhaps they signal that they intend to lower the deficit.”But of course, that would only be after they first lift the deficit to fund America’s coming $3trln Recovery Plan. “And at that point, the clock starts ticking,” he said.<blockquote>“在当前道路上的某个时刻，政策制定者将尝试正常化，”CIO说。我们在讨论排序，认识到它对宏观交易和投资的中心地位。他表示：“他们将首先尝试缩减美联储的购买规模。”美联储目前每月创造1200亿美元并用于购买债务。“也许他们发出了打算降低赤字的信号。”当然，这只是在他们首次取消赤字为美国即将到来的3万亿美元复苏计划提供资金之后。“到那时，时间就开始流逝了，”他说。</blockquote> “Even if one thinks the current policy path inevitably leads to a substantial inflation, there are enough orthodox policy makers that we can be confident they’ll try to avert that outcome,” continued the same CIO.“So what we need to figure out is how far they’ll let stocks and inflation run before they’re compelled to taper,”he said. “And then we’ll need to judge how long it will take for the economy and/or market to take a deep dive.” Not long. “When they then quickly pivot and aggressively ease, their predicament will be clear for all to see.”<blockquote>“即使有人认为当前的政策路径不可避免地导致大幅通胀，但有足够多的正统政策制定者，我们可以相信他们会尽力避免这种结果，”同一位首席信息官继续说道。“因此，我们需要弄清楚的是，在被迫缩减规模之前，他们会让股市和通胀走多远。”他说。“然后我们需要判断经济和/或市场需要多长时间才能深度下跌。”不会太久。“当他们迅速转向并积极放松时，他们的困境就会有目共睹。”</blockquote> “Given the size of the stimulus and deficits at this stage, if policy makers are seen to be unable to normalize in any material way, that will be the stage in the sequencing when the great reset begins,” explained the same CIO. “Markets at that point will move very fast.” Maintaining calm given current policy settings requires inflation expectations to remain anchored and investors to believe policy can be normalized. “I am often a bit early on the very big trades, but this whole sequence appears sure to play out over the coming three years.”<blockquote>“考虑到现阶段刺激和赤字的规模，如果政策制定者无法以任何实质性方式实现正常化，那么这将是大重置开始的顺序阶段，”同一位首席信息官解释道。“届时市场将会快速波动。”鉴于当前的政策环境，保持冷静需要通胀预期保持稳定，并让投资者相信政策可以正常化。“我经常在非常大的交易上有点早，但这整个序列似乎肯定会在未来三年内完成。”</blockquote> “The biggest macro change in the past 50yrs was the taming of inflation,” said Marco Polo, my favorite macro modeler. “Paul Volcker was a byproduct of the political choice to anchor inflation in a post-gold-standard world. It required great resolve, and management of a domestic financial crisis induced by the high interest rates needed to get the job done. Don Kohn observed that the Volcker master lesson ‘was to protect the system but not the sinner - and that required facts, analysis, and flexibility.’Volcker was the first Fed Chair who required a personal bodyguard.The Hunt brothers (silver), Penn Square and Continental Illinois (oil) and the entire Farm Credit System were all strained by his decisions and Volcker was the first Fed Chair who required a personal bodyguard. The resolve to tackling inflation cannot be overstated.”<blockquote>“过去50年来最大的宏观变化是抑制通货膨胀，”我最喜欢的宏观建模师马可波罗说。“保罗·沃尔克是在后金本位制世界中锚定通胀的政治选择的副产品。这需要巨大的决心，以及完成这项工作所需的高利率引发的国内金融危机的管理。唐·科恩观察到，沃尔克的大师课“是保护金融体系，而不是罪人——这需要事实、分析和灵活性。”沃尔克是第一位需要私人保镖的美联储主席。亨特兄弟（白银）、佩恩广场和伊利诺伊大陆（石油）以及整个农业信贷系统都因他的决定而紧张，沃尔克是第一位需要私人保镖的美联储主席。应对通胀的决心怎么强调都不为过。”</blockquote> “The virtuous cycle of declining government bond yields in the past three decades that followed Volcker’s attack on inflation has been an overwhelmingly positive impulse to financial portfolios,” explained Marco Polo. “Government bonds played a large role, directly or indirectly through other assets that benefited from lower bond yields. To illustrate the point, I built a simple dynamic portfolio of stocks, bonds, the US dollar, and commodities. Allocations to those asset classes are selected depending on the state of the macro economy.”<blockquote>马可波罗解释说：“在沃尔克攻击通胀之后的过去三十年里，政府债券收益率下降的良性循环对金融投资组合产生了压倒性的积极推动。”“政府债券发挥了很大的作用，直接或间接地通过受益于债券收益率下降的其他资产。为了说明这一点，我建立了一个简单的股票、债券、美元和大宗商品的动态投资组合。这些资产类别的配置是根据宏观经济的状况来选择的。”</blockquote> “When things are good and getting better, asset allocation is split between stocks and commodities; bonds are the asset allocation when things are good but weakening; long US dollar exposure is deployed in downturns; stocks and foreign currency allocations are the benchmark in early upturns,”continued Marco. “The states of the macro economy are probability weighted and rebalanced over time to arrive at a balanced portfolio. The annualized monthly return of such an approach since Sep 1981 is +7.5% with volatility of less than 6%. Not bad for a passive, blunt approach.”<blockquote>“当情况良好且变好时，资产配置在股票和大宗商品之间进行分割；当情况良好但变弱时，债券是资产配置；在低迷时，多头美元敞口被部署；股票和外币配置是早期上涨时的基准，”马可继续说道。“宏观经济的状态会随着时间的推移进行概率加权和再平衡，以达到平衡的投资组合。自1981年9月以来，这种方法的年化月回报率为+7.5%，波动性低于6%。对于被动、生硬的方法来说还不错。”</blockquote> “Let’s include a long-bond overlay to the asset allocation in all macro states so that the average gross portfolio exposure is 2x,” said Marco. “Think of this leverage as a move out the risk spectrum. The historical performance jumps to +11.5% and the Sharpe rises to more than 1.5x. Of course, asset managers did not initially have the foresight to implement such a portfolio nor did financial intermediaries have the risk appetite to provide short-term funding.But with time and reinforcement from policy actions that tell us sinners have now become the system and will thus be eternally supported by policy, portfolios have pushed far out the risk spectrum taking long duration exposure directly or indirectly. It is all the same trade.”<blockquote>马可表示：“让我们在所有宏观状态的资产配置中纳入长期债券叠加，以便平均总投资组合敞口为2倍。”“将这种杠杆视为脱离风险范围。历史表现跃升至+11.5%，夏普指数升至1.5倍以上。当然，资产管理公司最初并没有实施这样的投资组合的远见，也没有金融中介机构有提供短期资金的风险偏好。但随着时间的推移和政策行动的强化，告诉我们罪人现在已经成为系统，因此将永远得到政策的支持，投资组合已经远远超出了直接或间接长期敞口的风险范围。这都是同一个行业。”</blockquote> “Recent correlations reinforce the point.The US TIPs and Tesla daily correlation is nearly 30% this year.TIPs act like a low-beta play on highly valued growth companies. Both are bets on duration. The difference today from the past is today’s low starting point of bond yields. At steeply negative real yields and very low nominals, the role of bonds in a portfolio becomes heavily challenged. German bund performance in the Mar 2020 period is also a good reminder. Bund prices rose sharply over 7wks during the pandemic and reversed that move in 10-days.”<blockquote>“最近的相关性强化了这一点。今年，美国TIPs和特斯拉的每日相关性接近30%。TIPs就像是对高估值成长型公司的低贝塔游戏。两者都是对持续时间的押注。今天与过去的不同之处在于今天债券收益率的低起点。在实际收益率急剧为负且名义收益率非常低的情况下，债券在投资组合中的作用受到严重挑战。德国国债在2020年3月期间的表现也是一个很好的提醒。疫情期间，外滩价格在7周内大幅上涨，并在10天内扭转了这一走势。”</blockquote> “Bunds provided no protection to slower-moving asset allocators. Ten-year German real yields now trade -1.75%. They have no value as an investment, nor as a risk-mitigator,” said Marco. “Asset managers have no choice but to explore alternatives to bonds and find risk mitigators to long duration exposure. And official institutions have little choice but to lean against any undesired rise in ‘risk free’ yields.Everyone is a sinner now, the system is held hostage. After all, 44% of outstanding Treasury securities are held between the Fed and foreign official institutions. And at any wobble they buy more.”<blockquote>“德国国债没有为行动缓慢的资产配置者提供保护。十年期德国实际收益率目前为-1.75%。它们没有投资价值，也没有风险缓解工具的价值，”Marco说。“资产管理公司别无选择，只能探索债券的替代品，并寻找长期风险敞口的风险缓解措施。官方机构别无选择，只能依靠‘无风险’收益率的任何不良上升。现在每个人都是罪人，系统被扣为人质。毕竟，44%的未偿还国债是由美联储和外国官方机构持有的。每当出现波动时，他们就会购买更多。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-sinners-have-become-system-and-will-be-eternally-supported-policy\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ad35190f75132817724b1baf836f80","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-sinners-have-become-system-and-will-be-eternally-supported-policy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141317956","content_text":"Sinners\n“At some point on the current path, policy makers will attempt to normalize,”said the CIO. We were discussing sequencing, recognizing its centrality to macro trading, investing. “They will start by attempting to taper Fed purchases,” he said, the US central bank currently creating $120bln per month and using it to purchase debt. “Perhaps they signal that they intend to lower the deficit.”But of course, that would only be after they first lift the deficit to fund America’s coming $3trln Recovery Plan. “And at that point, the clock starts ticking,” he said.\n“Even if one thinks the current policy path inevitably leads to a substantial inflation, there are enough orthodox policy makers that we can be confident they’ll try to avert that outcome,” continued the same CIO.“So what we need to figure out is how far they’ll let stocks and inflation run before they’re compelled to taper,”he said. “And then we’ll need to judge how long it will take for the economy and/or market to take a deep dive.” Not long. “When they then quickly pivot and aggressively ease, their predicament will be clear for all to see.”\n“Given the size of the stimulus and deficits at this stage, if policy makers are seen to be unable to normalize in any material way, that will be the stage in the sequencing when the great reset begins,” explained the same CIO. “Markets at that point will move very fast.” Maintaining calm given current policy settings requires inflation expectations to remain anchored and investors to believe policy can be normalized. “I am often a bit early on the very big trades, but this whole sequence appears sure to play out over the coming three years.”\n“The biggest macro change in the past 50yrs was the taming of inflation,” said Marco Polo, my favorite macro modeler. “Paul Volcker was a byproduct of the political choice to anchor inflation in a post-gold-standard world. It required great resolve, and management of a domestic financial crisis induced by the high interest rates needed to get the job done. Don Kohn observed that the Volcker master lesson ‘was to protect the system but not the sinner - and that required facts, analysis, and flexibility.’Volcker was the first Fed Chair who required a personal bodyguard.The Hunt brothers (silver), Penn Square and Continental Illinois (oil) and the entire Farm Credit System were all strained by his decisions and Volcker was the first Fed Chair who required a personal bodyguard. The resolve to tackling inflation cannot be overstated.”\n“The virtuous cycle of declining government bond yields in the past three decades that followed Volcker’s attack on inflation has been an overwhelmingly positive impulse to financial portfolios,” explained Marco Polo. “Government bonds played a large role, directly or indirectly through other assets that benefited from lower bond yields. To illustrate the point, I built a simple dynamic portfolio of stocks, bonds, the US dollar, and commodities. Allocations to those asset classes are selected depending on the state of the macro economy.”\n“When things are good and getting better, asset allocation is split between stocks and commodities; bonds are the asset allocation when things are good but weakening; long US dollar exposure is deployed in downturns; stocks and foreign currency allocations are the benchmark in early upturns,”continued Marco. “The states of the macro economy are probability weighted and rebalanced over time to arrive at a balanced portfolio. The annualized monthly return of such an approach since Sep 1981 is +7.5% with volatility of less than 6%. Not bad for a passive, blunt approach.”\n“Let’s include a long-bond overlay to the asset allocation in all macro states so that the average gross portfolio exposure is 2x,” said Marco. “Think of this leverage as a move out the risk spectrum. The historical performance jumps to +11.5% and the Sharpe rises to more than 1.5x. Of course, asset managers did not initially have the foresight to implement such a portfolio nor did financial intermediaries have the risk appetite to provide short-term funding.But with time and reinforcement from policy actions that tell us sinners have now become the system and will thus be eternally supported by policy, portfolios have pushed far out the risk spectrum taking long duration exposure directly or indirectly. It is all the same trade.”\n“Recent correlations reinforce the point.The US TIPs and Tesla daily correlation is nearly 30% this year.TIPs act like a low-beta play on highly valued growth companies. Both are bets on duration. The difference today from the past is today’s low starting point of bond yields. At steeply negative real yields and very low nominals, the role of bonds in a portfolio becomes heavily challenged. German bund performance in the Mar 2020 period is also a good reminder. Bund prices rose sharply over 7wks during the pandemic and reversed that move in 10-days.”\n“Bunds provided no protection to slower-moving asset allocators. Ten-year German real yields now trade -1.75%. They have no value as an investment, nor as a risk-mitigator,” said Marco. “Asset managers have no choice but to explore alternatives to bonds and find risk mitigators to long duration exposure. And official institutions have little choice but to lean against any undesired rise in ‘risk free’ yields.Everyone is a sinner now, the system is held hostage. After all, 44% of outstanding Treasury securities are held between the Fed and foreign official institutions. And at any wobble they buy more.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":54,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/352785075"}