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2021-03-27

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Earnings Forecasts Are Low. What That Means for Stocks<blockquote>盈利预测较低。这对股票意味着什么</blockquote>

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What That Means for Stocks<blockquote>盈利预测较低。这对股票意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165077583","media":"Barrons","summary":"Analysts have been racing to revise earnings estimates upward of late, but those projections could e","content":"Analysts have been racing to revise earnings estimates upward of late, but those projections could easily still be too low. That could mean more upside for stocks even though the market has been hot recently.<blockquote>分析师最近一直在竞相上调盈利预期，但这些预测很可能仍然太低。尽管最近市场很火爆，但这可能意味着股市有更多上涨空间。</blockquote> Earnings estimates for 2021 for the average&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;company have been revised higher by 8% in the past six months, according to FactSet data.Covid-19 vaccines have found arms at a fast pace, enabling states to reopen, which has been met by pent-up demand resulting fromtrillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. Given that, revisions upward may now be less frequent.<blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，过去六个月，标普500普通公司 2021 年的盈利预期上调了 8%。 Covid-19 疫苗迅速找到了武器，使各州能够重新开放，这得到了被压抑的需求的满足。数万亿美元的财政刺激。有鉴于此，向上修正现在可能不那么频繁了。</blockquote> But there is indeed more upside to earnings, according to analysis from&nbsp;Credit Suisse&nbsp;strategists. For every percentage point of additional gross domestic product growth, revenue growth on the S&amp;P 500 is roughly double, historically, Credit Suisse said. With GDP expected to grow just over 7% in 2021—the fastest clip in decades as the economy normalizes after the lockdowns of 2020—S&amp;P 500 revenues could grow about 14%.<blockquote>但根据瑞士信贷策略师的分析，盈利确实还有更大的上升空间。瑞士信贷表示，从历史上看，国内生产总值每增长一个百分点，标普500的收入增长就大约翻一番。预计 2021 年 GDP 增长略高于 7%——随着 2020 年封锁后经济恢复正常，这是几十年来最快的增幅——标普500收入可能增长约 14%。</blockquote> But analysts only expect aggregate sales growth on the index of around 9% for the year, according to FactSet data. Considering current revenue estimates, Credit Suisse’s analysis implies roughly 4% upside to sales projections.<blockquote>但根据 FactSet 数据，分析师预计今年该指数的总销售额增长率仅为 9% 左右。考虑到目前的收入预测，瑞士信贷的分析表明，销售预测有大约 4% 的上涨空间。</blockquote> Earnings would have even more potential to rise. For many S&amp;P 500 companies—think of manufacturers, retail businesses, and food-chain operators—increased sales often mean even higher profit growth. That is because those companies have high operating leverage: A significant portion of their costs don’t vary much, so when sales rise, profit margins expand and earnings grow robustly.<blockquote>盈利将有更大的增长潜力。对于许多标普500公司来说——想想制造商、零售企业和食品连锁店运营商——销售额的增加通常意味着更高的利润增长。这是因为这些公司的运营杠杆很高： 它们的很大一部分成本变化不大，因此当销售额上升时，利润率就会扩大，收益也会强劲增长。</blockquote> Credit Suisse is forecasting EPS growth of 34% in 2021, higher than the consensus estimate of 25%.<blockquote>瑞士信贷预计 2021 年每股收益将增长 34%，高于市场普遍预期的 25%。</blockquote> Would higher expectations pump stock prices upward significantly? One challenge is that stocks already reflect a high degree of optimism. The S&amp;P 500 is up almost 20% since late September,when investors resumed buying up assets most sensitive to changes in the economy.<blockquote>更高的预期会大幅推高股价吗？一个挑战是股市已经反映出高度的乐观情绪。自9月下旬以来，标普500已上涨近20%，当时投资者恢复购买对经济变化最敏感的资产。</blockquote> That has brought valuations to fairly high levels, with the average stock on the index trading at just under 22 times the per-share earnings expected for next year, compared with the long-term average of 15 times.<blockquote>这使得估值达到了相当高的水平，该指数中股票的平均交易价格略低于明年预期每股收益的 22 倍，而长期平均水平为 15 倍。</blockquote> But&nbsp;interest rates have recently been on the rise,which makes stocks less attractive.Many on Wall Street see the S&amp;P 500 trading down to 20 times the earnings expected for next year.While expectations of bigger profits could help stocks, the gain would be partially offset if shares trade at a lower multiple of forecasted earnings.<blockquote>但最近利率一直在上升，这使得股票的吸引力下降。华尔街许多人认为标普500明年盈利预期跌至 20 倍。虽然更大利润的预期可能会帮助股市，但如果股市的市盈率低于预测市盈率，则涨幅将被部分抵消。</blockquote> The most economically sensitive stocks are some of the best ones to play the earnings story.Cyclicals have run hot,but some still look good.<blockquote>对经济最敏感的股票是影响盈利故事的最佳股票.周期性股票已经火爆， 但有些看起来仍然不错。</blockquote> Norfolk Southern&nbsp;(ticker: NSC) could achieve earnings per share of $16 by 2023,Citigroup&nbsp;analysts wrote in a note. That would put the rail and transportation company on a path to grow earnings at a 20% clip for the next three years, up from the 13% FactSet data indicates Wall Street analysts currently expect. While the stock is trading above its average price/earnings ratio for the past five years, the Citi analysts still see room for a 37% gain in the shares.<blockquote>花旗集团分析师在一份报告中写道，诺福克南方航空（股票代码：NSC）到 2023 年每股收益可能达到 16 美元。这将使这家铁路和运输公司未来三年的盈利增长率达到 20%，高于华尔街分析师目前预期的 13%。尽管该股的交易价格高于过去五年的平均市盈率，但花旗分析师仍然认为该股还有 37% 的上涨空间。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Forecasts Are Low. What That Means for Stocks<blockquote>盈利预测较低。这对股票意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Forecasts Are Low. What That Means for Stocks<blockquote>盈利预测较低。这对股票意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-03-26 22:19\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAnalysts have been racing to revise earnings estimates upward of late, but those projections could easily still be too low. That could mean more upside for stocks even though the market has been hot recently.<blockquote>分析师最近一直在竞相上调盈利预期，但这些预测很可能仍然太低。尽管最近市场很火爆，但这可能意味着股市有更多上涨空间。</blockquote> Earnings estimates for 2021 for the average&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;company have been revised higher by 8% in the past six months, according to FactSet data.Covid-19 vaccines have found arms at a fast pace, enabling states to reopen, which has been met by pent-up demand resulting fromtrillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. Given that, revisions upward may now be less frequent.<blockquote>FactSet 数据显示，过去六个月，标普500普通公司 2021 年的盈利预期上调了 8%。 Covid-19 疫苗迅速找到了武器，使各州能够重新开放，这得到了被压抑的需求的满足。数万亿美元的财政刺激。有鉴于此，向上修正现在可能不那么频繁了。</blockquote> But there is indeed more upside to earnings, according to analysis from&nbsp;Credit Suisse&nbsp;strategists. For every percentage point of additional gross domestic product growth, revenue growth on the S&amp;P 500 is roughly double, historically, Credit Suisse said. With GDP expected to grow just over 7% in 2021—the fastest clip in decades as the economy normalizes after the lockdowns of 2020—S&amp;P 500 revenues could grow about 14%.<blockquote>但根据瑞士信贷策略师的分析，盈利确实还有更大的上升空间。瑞士信贷表示，从历史上看，国内生产总值每增长一个百分点，标普500的收入增长就大约翻一番。预计 2021 年 GDP 增长略高于 7%——随着 2020 年封锁后经济恢复正常，这是几十年来最快的增幅——标普500收入可能增长约 14%。</blockquote> But analysts only expect aggregate sales growth on the index of around 9% for the year, according to FactSet data. Considering current revenue estimates, Credit Suisse’s analysis implies roughly 4% upside to sales projections.<blockquote>但根据 FactSet 数据，分析师预计今年该指数的总销售额增长率仅为 9% 左右。考虑到目前的收入预测，瑞士信贷的分析表明，销售预测有大约 4% 的上涨空间。</blockquote> Earnings would have even more potential to rise. For many S&amp;P 500 companies—think of manufacturers, retail businesses, and food-chain operators—increased sales often mean even higher profit growth. That is because those companies have high operating leverage: A significant portion of their costs don’t vary much, so when sales rise, profit margins expand and earnings grow robustly.<blockquote>盈利将有更大的增长潜力。对于许多标普500公司来说——想想制造商、零售企业和食品连锁店运营商——销售额的增加通常意味着更高的利润增长。这是因为这些公司的运营杠杆很高： 它们的很大一部分成本变化不大，因此当销售额上升时，利润率就会扩大，收益也会强劲增长。</blockquote> Credit Suisse is forecasting EPS growth of 34% in 2021, higher than the consensus estimate of 25%.<blockquote>瑞士信贷预计 2021 年每股收益将增长 34%，高于市场普遍预期的 25%。</blockquote> Would higher expectations pump stock prices upward significantly? One challenge is that stocks already reflect a high degree of optimism. The S&amp;P 500 is up almost 20% since late September,when investors resumed buying up assets most sensitive to changes in the economy.<blockquote>更高的预期会大幅推高股价吗？一个挑战是股市已经反映出高度的乐观情绪。自9月下旬以来，标普500已上涨近20%，当时投资者恢复购买对经济变化最敏感的资产。</blockquote> That has brought valuations to fairly high levels, with the average stock on the index trading at just under 22 times the per-share earnings expected for next year, compared with the long-term average of 15 times.<blockquote>这使得估值达到了相当高的水平，该指数中股票的平均交易价格略低于明年预期每股收益的 22 倍，而长期平均水平为 15 倍。</blockquote> But&nbsp;interest rates have recently been on the rise,which makes stocks less attractive.Many on Wall Street see the S&amp;P 500 trading down to 20 times the earnings expected for next year.While expectations of bigger profits could help stocks, the gain would be partially offset if shares trade at a lower multiple of forecasted earnings.<blockquote>但最近利率一直在上升，这使得股票的吸引力下降。华尔街许多人认为标普500明年盈利预期跌至 20 倍。虽然更大利润的预期可能会帮助股市，但如果股市的市盈率低于预测市盈率，则涨幅将被部分抵消。</blockquote> The most economically sensitive stocks are some of the best ones to play the earnings story.Cyclicals have run hot,but some still look good.<blockquote>对经济最敏感的股票是影响盈利故事的最佳股票.周期性股票已经火爆， 但有些看起来仍然不错。</blockquote> Norfolk Southern&nbsp;(ticker: NSC) could achieve earnings per share of $16 by 2023,Citigroup&nbsp;analysts wrote in a note. That would put the rail and transportation company on a path to grow earnings at a 20% clip for the next three years, up from the 13% FactSet data indicates Wall Street analysts currently expect. While the stock is trading above its average price/earnings ratio for the past five years, the Citi analysts still see room for a 37% gain in the shares.<blockquote>花旗集团分析师在一份报告中写道，诺福克南方航空（股票代码：NSC）到 2023 年每股收益可能达到 16 美元。这将使这家铁路和运输公司未来三年的盈利增长率达到 20%，高于华尔街分析师目前预期的 13%。尽管该股的交易价格高于过去五年的平均市盈率，但花旗分析师仍然认为该股还有 37% 的上涨空间。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-forecasts-for-earnings-are-low-and-what-that-means-for-stocks-51616758201?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-forecasts-for-earnings-are-low-and-what-that-means-for-stocks-51616758201?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165077583","content_text":"Analysts have been racing to revise earnings estimates upward of late, but those projections could easily still be too low. That could mean more upside for stocks even though the market has been hot recently.\nEarnings estimates for 2021 for the average S&P 500 company have been revised higher by 8% in the past six months, according to FactSet data.Covid-19 vaccines have found arms at a fast pace, enabling states to reopen, which has been met by pent-up demand resulting fromtrillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. Given that, revisions upward may now be less frequent.\nBut there is indeed more upside to earnings, according to analysis from Credit Suisse strategists. For every percentage point of additional gross domestic product growth, revenue growth on the S&P 500 is roughly double, historically, Credit Suisse said. With GDP expected to grow just over 7% in 2021—the fastest clip in decades as the economy normalizes after the lockdowns of 2020—S&P 500 revenues could grow about 14%.\nBut analysts only expect aggregate sales growth on the index of around 9% for the year, according to FactSet data. Considering current revenue estimates, Credit Suisse’s analysis implies roughly 4% upside to sales projections.\nEarnings would have even more potential to rise. For many S&P 500 companies—think of manufacturers, retail businesses, and food-chain operators—increased sales often mean even higher profit growth. That is because those companies have high operating leverage: A significant portion of their costs don’t vary much, so when sales rise, profit margins expand and earnings grow robustly.\nCredit Suisse is forecasting EPS growth of 34% in 2021, higher than the consensus estimate of 25%.\nWould higher expectations pump stock prices upward significantly? One challenge is that stocks already reflect a high degree of optimism. The S&P 500 is up almost 20% since late September,when investors resumed buying up assets most sensitive to changes in the economy.\nThat has brought valuations to fairly high levels, with the average stock on the index trading at just under 22 times the per-share earnings expected for next year, compared with the long-term average of 15 times.\nBut interest rates have recently been on the rise,which makes stocks less attractive.Many on Wall Street see the S&P 500 trading down to 20 times the earnings expected for next year.While expectations of bigger profits could help stocks, the gain would be partially offset if shares trade at a lower multiple of forecasted earnings.\nThe most economically sensitive stocks are some of the best ones to play the earnings story.Cyclicals have run hot,but some still look good.\nNorfolk Southern (ticker: NSC) could achieve earnings per share of $16 by 2023,Citigroup analysts wrote in a note. That would put the rail and transportation company on a path to grow earnings at a 20% clip for the next three years, up from the 13% FactSet data indicates Wall Street analysts currently expect. While the stock is trading above its average price/earnings ratio for the past five years, the Citi analysts still see room for a 37% gain in the shares.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/352061357"}