风彩超然
2021-03-21
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@Neuschwanste:
$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$整理了国内外PaaS行业公司的数据,以便作为参照来估算TUYA的股价,具体如下: ① 国内云通信平台RAAS:市值3.2B,去年营收0.1B,市销率PS = 3.2/0.1 = 32倍,去年营收增速30%,去年毛利率41% ② 国内音视频云平台API:市值6.3B,营收0.13B,PS = 6.3/1.34 = 47倍,两年平均增速CAGR 78%,毛利率65%(仅仅从PS数据上看,个人认为它目前被低估了) ③ 云通信平台TWLO:市值63.6B,营收1.76B,PS = 36倍,三年平均增速CAGR 64%,毛利率52% ④ 软件开发协作云平台TEAM:市值59.3B,营收1.6B,PS = 37倍,CAGR 37%,毛利率83% ⑤ 云安全平台CRWD:市值43.6B,营收0.48B,PS = 91倍,CAGR 110%,毛利率70% ⑥ 行业龙头CRM:市值197B,营收21.3B, PS = 9.3倍, CAGR 26%,毛利率74%(不过Salesforce主业务应该是SaaS) ⑦ 行业新贵SNOW:市值66B,营收0.59B,PS = 112倍,CAGR 149%,毛利率59%(主业也是SaaS) 涂鸦的情况是:营收0.18B,CAGR 78%,毛利率34%,总股本0.56B。 根据上述行情,我个人推测TUYA的合理PS应该在50~75倍左右,那么对应市值0.18B * [50~75]= 9~13.5B,对应股价0.18B * [50~75] / 0.56B = 16~24 [美金] [美金] [美金] 相应地,如果发行价17则涨幅 -6%~41%,发行价20则涨幅 -20%~20%。 进一步考虑涂鸦在国内市场的稀缺性、赛道发展前景、申购的热情、以及当前美股大盘的稳定环境,我感觉破发可能性比较小,并且市场高估的可能性更大(比如给予90倍PS,那么对应股价29,涨幅70%-45%)。 行业其它PaaS & SaaS公司,比如SAP、WDAY、NOW、INTU、BILL、DOCU、APPN、TTD、DDOG、ALRM、MDB……的数据,大家可以自行比较下。有错误之处,欢迎指正和交流。
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2461fbaf
2021-03-21
2461fbaf
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78%,毛利率34%,总股本0.56B。</p><p>根据上述行情,我个人推测TUYA的合理PS应该在50~75倍左右,那么对应市值0.18B * [50~75]= 9~13.5B,对应股价0.18B * [50~75] / 0.56B = 16~24 <span>[美金] </span><span>[美金] </span><span>[美金] </span></p><p>相应地,如果发行价17则涨幅 -6%~41%,发行价20则涨幅 -20%~20%。</p><p>进一步考虑涂鸦在国内市场的稀缺性、赛道发展前景、申购的热情、以及当前美股大盘的稳定环境,我感觉破发可能性比较小,并且市场高估的可能性更大(比如给予90倍PS,那么对应股价29,涨幅70%-45%)。</p><p>行业其它PaaS & SaaS公司,比如SAP、WDAY、NOW、INTU、BILL、DOCU、APPN、TTD、DDOG、ALRM、MDB……的数据,大家可以自行比较下。有错误之处,欢迎指正和交流。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$</a>整理了国内外PaaS行业公司的数据,以便作为参照来估算TUYA的股价,具体如下:</p><p>① 国内云通信平台RAAS:市值3.2B,去年营收0.1B,市销率PS = 3.2/0.1 = 32倍,去年营收增速30%,去年毛利率41%</p><p>② 国内音视频云平台API:市值6.3B,营收0.13B,PS = 6.3/1.34 = 47倍,两年平均增速CAGR 78%,毛利率65%(仅仅从PS数据上看,个人认为它目前被低估了)</p><p>③ 云通信平台TWLO:市值63.6B,营收1.76B,PS = 36倍,三年平均增速CAGR 64%,毛利率52%</p><p>④ 软件开发协作云平台TEAM:市值59.3B,营收1.6B,PS = 37倍,CAGR 37%,毛利率83%</p><p>⑤ 云安全平台CRWD:市值43.6B,营收0.48B,PS = 91倍,CAGR 110%,毛利率70%</p><p>⑥ 行业龙头CRM:市值197B,营收21.3B, PS = 9.3倍, CAGR 26%,毛利率74%(不过Salesforce主业务应该是SaaS)</p><p>⑦ 行业新贵SNOW:市值66B,营收0.59B,PS = 112倍,CAGR 149%,毛利率59%(主业也是SaaS)</p><p>涂鸦的情况是:营收0.18B,CAGR 78%,毛利率34%,总股本0.56B。</p><p>根据上述行情,我个人推测TUYA的合理PS应该在50~75倍左右,那么对应市值0.18B * [50~75]= 9~13.5B,对应股价0.18B * [50~75] / 0.56B = 16~24 <span>[美金] </span><span>[美金] </span><span>[美金] </span></p><p>相应地,如果发行价17则涨幅 -6%~41%,发行价20则涨幅 -20%~20%。</p><p>进一步考虑涂鸦在国内市场的稀缺性、赛道发展前景、申购的热情、以及当前美股大盘的稳定环境,我感觉破发可能性比较小,并且市场高估的可能性更大(比如给予90倍PS,那么对应股价29,涨幅70%-45%)。</p><p>行业其它PaaS & SaaS公司,比如SAP、WDAY、NOW、INTU、BILL、DOCU、APPN、TTD、DDOG、ALRM、MDB……的数据,大家可以自行比较下。有错误之处,欢迎指正和交流。</p></body></html>","text":"$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$整理了国内外PaaS行业公司的数据,以便作为参照来估算TUYA的股价,具体如下: ① 国内云通信平台RAAS:市值3.2B,去年营收0.1B,市销率PS = 3.2/0.1 = 32倍,去年营收增速30%,去年毛利率41% ② 国内音视频云平台API:市值6.3B,营收0.13B,PS = 6.3/1.34 = 47倍,两年平均增速CAGR 78%,毛利率65%(仅仅从PS数据上看,个人认为它目前被低估了) ③ 云通信平台TWLO:市值63.6B,营收1.76B,PS = 36倍,三年平均增速CAGR 64%,毛利率52% ④ 软件开发协作云平台TEAM:市值59.3B,营收1.6B,PS = 37倍,CAGR 37%,毛利率83% ⑤ 云安全平台CRWD:市值43.6B,营收0.48B,PS = 91倍,CAGR 110%,毛利率70% ⑥ 行业龙头CRM:市值197B,营收21.3B, PS = 9.3倍, CAGR 26%,毛利率74%(不过Salesforce主业务应该是SaaS) ⑦ 行业新贵SNOW:市值66B,营收0.59B,PS = 112倍,CAGR 149%,毛利率59%(主业也是SaaS) 涂鸦的情况是:营收0.18B,CAGR 78%,毛利率34%,总股本0.56B。 根据上述行情,我个人推测TUYA的合理PS应该在50~75倍左右,那么对应市值0.18B * [50~75]= 9~13.5B,对应股价0.18B * [50~75] / 0.56B = 16~24 [美金] [美金] [美金] 相应地,如果发行价17则涨幅 -6%~41%,发行价20则涨幅 -20%~20%。 进一步考虑涂鸦在国内市场的稀缺性、赛道发展前景、申购的热情、以及当前美股大盘的稳定环境,我感觉破发可能性比较小,并且市场高估的可能性更大(比如给予90倍PS,那么对应股价29,涨幅70%-45%)。 行业其它PaaS & SaaS公司,比如SAP、WDAY、NOW、INTU、BILL、DOCU、APPN、TTD、DDOG、ALRM、MDB……的数据,大家可以自行比较下。有错误之处,欢迎指正和交流。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325479022","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["TUYA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1223,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":3844736,"gmtCreate":1616294256505,"gmtModify":1616294256505,"authorId":69262229036892,"author":{"id":69262229036892,"authorId":69262229036892,"name":"2461fbaf","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":350730406,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不错","text":"不错","html":"不错","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/350730406"}
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