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2021-04-12

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Goldman:"Don't Fight The Fed" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要对抗美联储”——美联储希望通胀走高，它会得到的</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":342240905,"tweetId":"342240905","gmtCreate":1618225360907,"gmtModify":1634294338883,"author":{"id":3563875545226282,"idStr":"3563875545226282","authorId":3563875545226282,"authorIdStr":"3563875545226282","name":"aalyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a665f066b4aaca8c78e998356714d014","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":44,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>like amd comment pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>like amd comment pls</body></html>","text":"like amd comment pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342240905","repostId":1149792365,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149792365","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618224620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149792365?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman:\"Don't Fight The Fed\" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要对抗美联储”——美联储希望通胀走高，它会得到的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149792365","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that thre","content":"Summarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that three macro issues dominated investor discussions about the US equity market since the start of the year:rates, inflation, and taxes.<blockquote>高盛的David Kostin在每周Kickstart报告中总结了投资者情绪，他写道，自今年年初以来，三个宏观问题主导了投资者对美国股市的讨论：利率、通货膨胀和税收。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, interest rates have been the most important of these topics. In a rising interest rate environment, short duration outperforms long duration in both fixed income and equities and sure enough, of all Goldman thematic baskets, duration has been the best long-short trade, posting a +25% return since the start of 2021<blockquote>毫不奇怪，利率一直是这些话题中最重要的。在利率上升的环境下，固定收益和股票的短期久期表现均优于长期久期，果然，在所有高盛主题篮子中，久期是最好的多空交易，自2021年初以来回报率为+25%</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685d3ea377dd6193477c5905eb78ab4e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A sector-neutral portfolio of short duration stocks (GSTHSDUR) has climbed by +24% YTD compared with a -1% return for a long duration portfolio (GSTHLDUR). As Exhibit 1 shows, duration has been a major contributor to alpha generation.<blockquote>行业中性的短期股票投资组合(GSTHSDUR)年初至今已上涨+24%，而长期投资组合(GSTHLDUR)的回报率为-1%。如图表1所示，持续时间是α生成的主要因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8828e038fce357b696dfdab85d3e3b6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Looking ahead, Goldman expects more of the same: a static fed funds rate at the zero lower bound (until 2024 according to the Fed) combined with a continued rise in both real rates and breakeven inflation means a steeper yield curve. Meanwhile, amid expectations of historic economic overheating, Goldman predicts thatGDP growth will peak in the current quarter at 10.5% and nominal rates may rise by another 15 bps to 1.8%. As such, short duration stocks should continue to outperform, which also means more weakness for tech names. However, according to Kostin, \"some clients argue Treasury yields peaked at 1.75% at the end of March, and secular-growth Tech stocks will now outperform once again.\" To be sure, that's precisely what we have seen recently (read \"Did The \"Value Rotation\" Just Die Again: Some Market Thoughts From Goldman\").<blockquote>展望未来，高盛预计会出现更多相同的情况：静态联邦基金利率处于零下限（根据美联储的说法，直到2024年），加上实际利率和盈亏平衡通胀的持续上升，意味着收益率曲线更加陡峭。与此同时，在历史性经济过热的预期下，高盛预计GDP增长将在本季度达到10.5%的峰值，名义利率可能再上升15个基点至1.8%因此，短期股票应该会继续跑赢大盘，这也意味着科技股将更加疲软。然而，科斯汀表示，“一些客户认为美国国债收益率在3月底达到1.75%的峰值，长期增长型科技股现在将再次跑赢大盘。”可以肯定的是，这正是我们最近所看到的（阅读“价值轮动”是否再次消亡：高盛的一些市场想法”）。</blockquote> Kostin then takes us to the depths of financial market folklore and repeats what may be the single biggest cliche in all of finance:\"Don’t fight the Fed”is a quip investors have learned to ignore at their peril.\"<blockquote>然后，科斯汀带我们深入了解金融市场民间传说，并重复了可能是所有金融界最大的陈词滥调：“不要对抗美联储”投资者已经学会忽视这句俏皮话，后果自负。”</blockquote> Why is this relevant? Because as Goldman notes next, \"what the central bank wants is usually what it gets, sooner or later.A year ago, the Fed’s forceful intervention to backstop the money market sent both companies and fund managers a clear message about its willingness to provide liquidity. The Fed set a floor beneath equities and sparked the 80% rally that has lifted the S&amp;P 500 to an all-time high.\" (yes, that's Goldman admitting the Fed is now in the stock market manipulation business, a claim which not long ago was made by the occasional \"tinfoil-wearing\" website such as this one, for which it got much abuse).<blockquote>为什么这是相关的？因为正如高盛接下来指出的那样，“央行想要的通常是它迟早会得到的。一年前，美联储为支持货币市场而进行的强有力干预向公司和基金经理发出了明确的信息，表明美联储愿意提供流动性。美联储为股市设定了底线，并引发了80%的反弹，将标普500推升至历史新高。”（是的，高盛承认美联储现在参与了股市操纵业务，这一说法不久前是由偶尔出现的“锡纸”网站提出的，比如这个网站，因此受到了很多辱骂）。</blockquote> As a result, Goldman warns thatthe S&amp;P has rallied 9% YTD and now trades at our mid-year 2021 target of 4100.Our year-end and 12-month target implies a gain of 5% (7% with dividends).\"<blockquote>因此，高盛警告说S&amp;P今年迄今已上涨9%，目前交易价格为我们2021年年中目标4100点。我们的年终和12个月目标意味着5%的收益（7%含股息）。”</blockquote> That said, stocks could go far higher, especially short duration stocks. After all, as Kostin repeats, \"the Fed wants higher inflation. It has rejected pre-emptive tightening and instead under average inflation targeting wants core PCE inflation to average 2% over time.Core PCE averaged 1.45% year/year during the first two months of 2021. Although inflation readings are likely to be elevated during the next few months –peaking in April at 2.3% –it is likely to be transitory, and below 2.0% on a sustainable basis until 2023, according to the forecasts of our economics team.\"<blockquote>也就是说，股市可能会走高，尤其是短期股票。毕竟，正如科斯汀重复的那样，“美联储希望通胀上升。它拒绝了先发制人的紧缩政策，而是在平均通胀目标下，希望核心PCE通胀率随着时间的推移平均达到2%。2021年前两个月，核心PCE年均增长率为1.45%。尽管通胀读数可能会在未来几个月内上升（4月份达到2.3%的峰值），但根据我们经济团队的预测，这可能是暂时的，并且在2023年之前持续低于2.0%。”</blockquote> How do publicly-traded stocks fit into the inflation picture? According to Goldman (andMorgan Stanley)It is all about margins.<blockquote>公开交易的股票如何适应通胀形势？据高盛（和摩根士丹利）称这一切都与利润有关。</blockquote> Picking up on the latest warning by MS chief equity strategist Michael Wilson who last week spooked clients with his chart showing the collapse in the ISM index due to the surge in Prices Paid...<blockquote>微软首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)发出了最新警告，他上周用图表吓坏了客户，图表显示ISM指数因支付价格飙升而崩溃...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea610731d17d99c9b8549441c171be71\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... Kostin notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) segmented by stage of processing shows that raw materials inflation (year/year) equaled 9.3% in March 2021, the prices of intermediate goods rose by 4.0%, although finished goods inflation equaled only 1.3%.<blockquote>...Kostin指出，按加工阶段划分的生产者价格指数（PPI）显示，2021年3月原材料通胀率（年/年）为9.3%，中间产品价格上涨4.0%，尽管成品通胀率仅为1.3%。</blockquote> Based on his recent conversations with managements, firms are experiencing higher input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased labor costs. To be sure, increasingly more firms are defending margins by passing the higher costs along to their end market customers.KMB recently announced that effective in late June it will lift the net selling price of the majority of its North American consumer products in the “mid-to-high single digits.”But in the case of US auto manufacturers, the solid end demand environment that has allowed companies to cut incentives on limited inventory has been offset by margin headwinds related to production challenges, most notably the lack of semiconductors. Other cost pressures include higher shipping costs and manufacturing expenses related to factory downtime.<blockquote>根据他最近与管理层的谈话，由于供应链中断、大宗商品价格上涨和劳动力成本增加，企业正在经历更高的投入成本。可以肯定的是，越来越多的公司通过将更高的成本转嫁给终端市场客户来捍卫利润。九巴最近宣布，将于6月下旬起将其大部分北美消费品的净售价提高至“中高个位数”。但就美国汽车制造商而言，强劲的终端需求环境使企业能够削减对有限库存的激励措施，但已被与生产挑战相关的利润率阻力所抵消，最明显的是缺乏半导体。其他成本压力包括更高的运输成本和与工厂停工相关的制造费用。</blockquote> And so with margins squeezed, it's will be all about the ability to pass through cost increases. Notably, this would be a reversal to the trend observed in the past year: as Goldman notes, firms with high pricing power sharply lagged during the past year and the huge valuation premium previously accorded these stocks has disappeared. That's because firms with low pricing power have historically outperformed when S&amp;P 500 profit margins expand, but that period is coming to an end asrising inflation will restrict some firms from boosting margins while firms with pricing power will benefit.<blockquote>因此，随着利润受到挤压，关键在于转嫁成本增加的能力。值得注意的是，这将扭转过去一年观察到的趋势：正如高盛指出的那样，具有高定价能力的公司在过去一年中大幅落后，这些股票之前获得的巨大估值溢价已经消失。这是因为，从历史上看，当标普500利润率扩大时，定价能力较低的公司的表现会优于其他公司，但这一时期即将结束，因为通胀上升将限制一些公司提高利润率，而具有定价权的公司将受益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907299fc9f089058e4584cf12a1a1860\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> To find suitable investment candidates, Goldman screens for high and low pricing power stocks in the Russell 1000 based on the level and variability of each stock’s gross profit margins. The chart below lists 55 stocks with high pricing power.<blockquote>为了寻找合适的投资候选人，高盛根据每只股票的毛利率水平和可变性来筛选罗素1000指数中定价能力高和低的股票。下图列出了55只具有高定价能力的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4578a6e28e0494915624bfcc884fdc36\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman:\"Don't Fight The Fed\" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要对抗美联储”——美联储希望通胀走高，它会得到的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman:\"Don't Fight The Fed\" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要对抗美联储”——美联储希望通胀走高，它会得到的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-04-12 18:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that three macro issues dominated investor discussions about the US equity market since the start of the year:rates, inflation, and taxes.<blockquote>高盛的David Kostin在每周Kickstart报告中总结了投资者情绪，他写道，自今年年初以来，三个宏观问题主导了投资者对美国股市的讨论：利率、通货膨胀和税收。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, interest rates have been the most important of these topics. In a rising interest rate environment, short duration outperforms long duration in both fixed income and equities and sure enough, of all Goldman thematic baskets, duration has been the best long-short trade, posting a +25% return since the start of 2021<blockquote>毫不奇怪，利率一直是这些话题中最重要的。在利率上升的环境下，固定收益和股票的短期久期表现均优于长期久期，果然，在所有高盛主题篮子中，久期是最好的多空交易，自2021年初以来回报率为+25%</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685d3ea377dd6193477c5905eb78ab4e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A sector-neutral portfolio of short duration stocks (GSTHSDUR) has climbed by +24% YTD compared with a -1% return for a long duration portfolio (GSTHLDUR). As Exhibit 1 shows, duration has been a major contributor to alpha generation.<blockquote>行业中性的短期股票投资组合(GSTHSDUR)年初至今已上涨+24%，而长期投资组合(GSTHLDUR)的回报率为-1%。如图表1所示，持续时间是α生成的主要因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8828e038fce357b696dfdab85d3e3b6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Looking ahead, Goldman expects more of the same: a static fed funds rate at the zero lower bound (until 2024 according to the Fed) combined with a continued rise in both real rates and breakeven inflation means a steeper yield curve. Meanwhile, amid expectations of historic economic overheating, Goldman predicts thatGDP growth will peak in the current quarter at 10.5% and nominal rates may rise by another 15 bps to 1.8%. As such, short duration stocks should continue to outperform, which also means more weakness for tech names. However, according to Kostin, \"some clients argue Treasury yields peaked at 1.75% at the end of March, and secular-growth Tech stocks will now outperform once again.\" To be sure, that's precisely what we have seen recently (read \"Did The \"Value Rotation\" Just Die Again: Some Market Thoughts From Goldman\").<blockquote>展望未来，高盛预计会出现更多相同的情况：静态联邦基金利率处于零下限（根据美联储的说法，直到2024年），加上实际利率和盈亏平衡通胀的持续上升，意味着收益率曲线更加陡峭。与此同时，在历史性经济过热的预期下，高盛预计GDP增长将在本季度达到10.5%的峰值，名义利率可能再上升15个基点至1.8%因此，短期股票应该会继续跑赢大盘，这也意味着科技股将更加疲软。然而，科斯汀表示，“一些客户认为美国国债收益率在3月底达到1.75%的峰值，长期增长型科技股现在将再次跑赢大盘。”可以肯定的是，这正是我们最近所看到的（阅读“价值轮动”是否再次消亡：高盛的一些市场想法”）。</blockquote> Kostin then takes us to the depths of financial market folklore and repeats what may be the single biggest cliche in all of finance:\"Don’t fight the Fed”is a quip investors have learned to ignore at their peril.\"<blockquote>然后，科斯汀带我们深入了解金融市场民间传说，并重复了可能是所有金融界最大的陈词滥调：“不要对抗美联储”投资者已经学会忽视这句俏皮话，后果自负。”</blockquote> Why is this relevant? Because as Goldman notes next, \"what the central bank wants is usually what it gets, sooner or later.A year ago, the Fed’s forceful intervention to backstop the money market sent both companies and fund managers a clear message about its willingness to provide liquidity. The Fed set a floor beneath equities and sparked the 80% rally that has lifted the S&amp;P 500 to an all-time high.\" (yes, that's Goldman admitting the Fed is now in the stock market manipulation business, a claim which not long ago was made by the occasional \"tinfoil-wearing\" website such as this one, for which it got much abuse).<blockquote>为什么这是相关的？因为正如高盛接下来指出的那样，“央行想要的通常是它迟早会得到的。一年前，美联储为支持货币市场而进行的强有力干预向公司和基金经理发出了明确的信息，表明美联储愿意提供流动性。美联储为股市设定了底线，并引发了80%的反弹，将标普500推升至历史新高。”（是的，高盛承认美联储现在参与了股市操纵业务，这一说法不久前是由偶尔出现的“锡纸”网站提出的，比如这个网站，因此受到了很多辱骂）。</blockquote> As a result, Goldman warns thatthe S&amp;P has rallied 9% YTD and now trades at our mid-year 2021 target of 4100.Our year-end and 12-month target implies a gain of 5% (7% with dividends).\"<blockquote>因此，高盛警告说S&amp;P今年迄今已上涨9%，目前交易价格为我们2021年年中目标4100点。我们的年终和12个月目标意味着5%的收益（7%含股息）。”</blockquote> That said, stocks could go far higher, especially short duration stocks. After all, as Kostin repeats, \"the Fed wants higher inflation. It has rejected pre-emptive tightening and instead under average inflation targeting wants core PCE inflation to average 2% over time.Core PCE averaged 1.45% year/year during the first two months of 2021. Although inflation readings are likely to be elevated during the next few months –peaking in April at 2.3% –it is likely to be transitory, and below 2.0% on a sustainable basis until 2023, according to the forecasts of our economics team.\"<blockquote>也就是说，股市可能会走高，尤其是短期股票。毕竟，正如科斯汀重复的那样，“美联储希望通胀上升。它拒绝了先发制人的紧缩政策，而是在平均通胀目标下，希望核心PCE通胀率随着时间的推移平均达到2%。2021年前两个月，核心PCE年均增长率为1.45%。尽管通胀读数可能会在未来几个月内上升（4月份达到2.3%的峰值），但根据我们经济团队的预测，这可能是暂时的，并且在2023年之前持续低于2.0%。”</blockquote> How do publicly-traded stocks fit into the inflation picture? According to Goldman (andMorgan Stanley)It is all about margins.<blockquote>公开交易的股票如何适应通胀形势？据高盛（和摩根士丹利）称这一切都与利润有关。</blockquote> Picking up on the latest warning by MS chief equity strategist Michael Wilson who last week spooked clients with his chart showing the collapse in the ISM index due to the surge in Prices Paid...<blockquote>微软首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)发出了最新警告，他上周用图表吓坏了客户，图表显示ISM指数因支付价格飙升而崩溃...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea610731d17d99c9b8549441c171be71\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... Kostin notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) segmented by stage of processing shows that raw materials inflation (year/year) equaled 9.3% in March 2021, the prices of intermediate goods rose by 4.0%, although finished goods inflation equaled only 1.3%.<blockquote>...Kostin指出，按加工阶段划分的生产者价格指数（PPI）显示，2021年3月原材料通胀率（年/年）为9.3%，中间产品价格上涨4.0%，尽管成品通胀率仅为1.3%。</blockquote> Based on his recent conversations with managements, firms are experiencing higher input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased labor costs. To be sure, increasingly more firms are defending margins by passing the higher costs along to their end market customers.KMB recently announced that effective in late June it will lift the net selling price of the majority of its North American consumer products in the “mid-to-high single digits.”But in the case of US auto manufacturers, the solid end demand environment that has allowed companies to cut incentives on limited inventory has been offset by margin headwinds related to production challenges, most notably the lack of semiconductors. Other cost pressures include higher shipping costs and manufacturing expenses related to factory downtime.<blockquote>根据他最近与管理层的谈话，由于供应链中断、大宗商品价格上涨和劳动力成本增加，企业正在经历更高的投入成本。可以肯定的是，越来越多的公司通过将更高的成本转嫁给终端市场客户来捍卫利润。九巴最近宣布，将于6月下旬起将其大部分北美消费品的净售价提高至“中高个位数”。但就美国汽车制造商而言，强劲的终端需求环境使企业能够削减对有限库存的激励措施，但已被与生产挑战相关的利润率阻力所抵消，最明显的是缺乏半导体。其他成本压力包括更高的运输成本和与工厂停工相关的制造费用。</blockquote> And so with margins squeezed, it's will be all about the ability to pass through cost increases. Notably, this would be a reversal to the trend observed in the past year: as Goldman notes, firms with high pricing power sharply lagged during the past year and the huge valuation premium previously accorded these stocks has disappeared. That's because firms with low pricing power have historically outperformed when S&amp;P 500 profit margins expand, but that period is coming to an end asrising inflation will restrict some firms from boosting margins while firms with pricing power will benefit.<blockquote>因此，随着利润受到挤压，关键在于转嫁成本增加的能力。值得注意的是，这将扭转过去一年观察到的趋势：正如高盛指出的那样，具有高定价能力的公司在过去一年中大幅落后，这些股票之前获得的巨大估值溢价已经消失。这是因为，从历史上看，当标普500利润率扩大时，定价能力较低的公司的表现会优于其他公司，但这一时期即将结束，因为通胀上升将限制一些公司提高利润率，而具有定价权的公司将受益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907299fc9f089058e4584cf12a1a1860\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> To find suitable investment candidates, Goldman screens for high and low pricing power stocks in the Russell 1000 based on the level and variability of each stock’s gross profit margins. The chart below lists 55 stocks with high pricing power.<blockquote>为了寻找合适的投资候选人，高盛根据每只股票的毛利率水平和可变性来筛选罗素1000指数中定价能力高和低的股票。下图列出了55只具有高定价能力的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4578a6e28e0494915624bfcc884fdc36\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-dont-fight-fed-fed-wants-higher-inflation-and-it-will-get-it\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-dont-fight-fed-fed-wants-higher-inflation-and-it-will-get-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149792365","content_text":"Summarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that three macro issues dominated investor discussions about the US equity market since the start of the year:rates, inflation, and taxes.\nNot surprisingly, interest rates have been the most important of these topics. In a rising interest rate environment, short duration outperforms long duration in both fixed income and equities and sure enough, of all Goldman thematic baskets, duration has been the best long-short trade, posting a +25% return since the start of 2021\nA sector-neutral portfolio of short duration stocks (GSTHSDUR) has climbed by +24% YTD compared with a -1% return for a long duration portfolio (GSTHLDUR). As Exhibit 1 shows, duration has been a major contributor to alpha generation.\n\nLooking ahead, Goldman expects more of the same: a static fed funds rate at the zero lower bound (until 2024 according to the Fed) combined with a continued rise in both real rates and breakeven inflation means a steeper yield curve. Meanwhile, amid expectations of historic economic overheating, Goldman predicts thatGDP growth will peak in the current quarter at 10.5% and nominal rates may rise by another 15 bps to 1.8%. As such, short duration stocks should continue to outperform, which also means more weakness for tech names. However, according to Kostin, \"some clients argue Treasury yields peaked at 1.75% at the end of March, and secular-growth Tech stocks will now outperform once again.\" To be sure, that's precisely what we have seen recently (read \"Did The \"Value Rotation\" Just Die Again: Some Market Thoughts From Goldman\").\nKostin then takes us to the depths of financial market folklore and repeats what may be the single biggest cliche in all of finance:\"Don’t fight the Fed”is a quip investors have learned to ignore at their peril.\"\nWhy is this relevant? Because as Goldman notes next, \"what the central bank wants is usually what it gets, sooner or later.A year ago, the Fed’s forceful intervention to backstop the money market sent both companies and fund managers a clear message about its willingness to provide liquidity. The Fed set a floor beneath equities and sparked the 80% rally that has lifted the S&P 500 to an all-time high.\" (yes, that's Goldman admitting the Fed is now in the stock market manipulation business, a claim which not long ago was made by the occasional \"tinfoil-wearing\" website such as this one, for which it got much abuse).\nAs a result, Goldman warns thatthe S&P has rallied 9% YTD and now trades at our mid-year 2021 target of 4100.Our year-end and 12-month target implies a gain of 5% (7% with dividends).\"\nThat said, stocks could go far higher, especially short duration stocks. After all, as Kostin repeats, \"the Fed wants higher inflation. It has rejected pre-emptive tightening and instead under average inflation targeting wants core PCE inflation to average 2% over time.Core PCE averaged 1.45% year/year during the first two months of 2021. Although inflation readings are likely to be elevated during the next few months –peaking in April at 2.3% –it is likely to be transitory, and below 2.0% on a sustainable basis until 2023, according to the forecasts of our economics team.\"\nHow do publicly-traded stocks fit into the inflation picture? According to Goldman (andMorgan Stanley)It is all about margins.\nPicking up on the latest warning by MS chief equity strategist Michael Wilson who last week spooked clients with his chart showing the collapse in the ISM index due to the surge in Prices Paid...\n\n... Kostin notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) segmented by stage of processing shows that raw materials inflation (year/year) equaled 9.3% in March 2021, the prices of intermediate goods rose by 4.0%, although finished goods inflation equaled only 1.3%.\nBased on his recent conversations with managements, firms are experiencing higher input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased labor costs. To be sure, increasingly more firms are defending margins by passing the higher costs along to their end market customers.KMB recently announced that effective in late June it will lift the net selling price of the majority of its North American consumer products in the “mid-to-high single digits.”But in the case of US auto manufacturers, the solid end demand environment that has allowed companies to cut incentives on limited inventory has been offset by margin headwinds related to production challenges, most notably the lack of semiconductors. Other cost pressures include higher shipping costs and manufacturing expenses related to factory downtime.\nAnd so with margins squeezed, it's will be all about the ability to pass through cost increases. Notably, this would be a reversal to the trend observed in the past year: as Goldman notes, firms with high pricing power sharply lagged during the past year and the huge valuation premium previously accorded these stocks has disappeared. That's because firms with low pricing power have historically outperformed when S&P 500 profit margins expand, but that period is coming to an end asrising inflation will restrict some firms from boosting margins while firms with pricing power will benefit.\n\nTo find suitable investment candidates, Goldman screens for high and low pricing power stocks in the Russell 1000 based on the level and variability of each stock’s gross profit margins. The chart below lists 55 stocks with high pricing power.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/342240905"}