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2021-04-12
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Why a pickup in both insider selling and share buybacks is a red flag for stocks<blockquote>为什么内幕抛售和股票回购的增加对股市来说是一个危险信号</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":342142066,"tweetId":"342142066","gmtCreate":1618193234255,"gmtModify":1634294511305,"author":{"id":3576672028211051,"idStr":"3576672028211051","authorId":3576672028211051,"authorIdStr":"3576672028211051","name":"Hipposaurus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66076a5767c5d8616ed31ebd48495f11","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>True</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>True</p></body></html>","text":"True","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342142066","repostId":1106270602,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106270602","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618193034,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106270602?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a pickup in both insider selling and share buybacks is a red flag for stocks<blockquote>为什么内幕抛售和股票回购的增加对股市来说是一个危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106270602","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Corporate insiders are buying company stock with one hand and selling with the other.\nCorporate insi","content":"<p>Corporate insiders are buying company stock with one hand and selling with the other.</p><p><blockquote>公司内部人士一手买入公司股票，一手卖出。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders are aggressively selling with one hand what they’re buying with the other and that’s not a good sign for bullish investors.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士一手积极抛售他们正在购买的东西，这对于看涨的投资者来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because insiders are selling from their own personal accounts, and when they’re betting with their own money they are more right than wrong. And, via share repurchases, they’re buying with other peoples’ money — their corporate cash. Companies historically have been wrong more than right in timing stock buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为内部人士是从自己的个人账户出售的，当他们用自己的钱下注时，他们的正确多于错误。而且，通过股票回购，他们用其他人的钱——他们的公司现金——进行购买。从历史上看，公司在股票回购时机上的错误多于正确。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year I wrote about insiders’ aggressive selling from their own accounts, and this has become even more pronounced in the weeks since. Winston Chua, a data analyst at EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence, reports that insider selling in the first quarter of this year was at a 14-year high.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，我写了一篇关于内部人士通过自己的账户激进抛售的文章，在此后的几周里，这种情况变得更加明显。Informa Financial Intelligence旗下EPFR的数据分析师Winston Chua报告称，今年第一季度的内幕抛售达到了14年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time that insider selling has jumped, companies have also accelerated the pace of repurchasing their shares. The total of stock buybacks in the first quarter, according to Chua, was the most in seven quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在内幕交易激增的同时，公司也加快了回购股票的步伐。蔡美儿表示，第一季度的股票回购总额是七个季度以来最多的。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate how bad companies are at timing their share repurchases, take a look at the chart below. It plots the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.77%so-called buyback yield: total repurchases of S&P 500 companies in a given quarter as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Notice that the lowest buyback yields over the past 15 years occurred at the two most significant bear market bottoms — March 2009 and March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>要了解公司在股票回购时机方面有多糟糕，请看下图。它绘制了标普500的SPX，+0.77%所谓的回购收益率：给定季度标普500公司的回购总额占标普500市值的百分比。请注意，过去15年中最低的回购收益率出现在两个最重要的熊市底部——2009年3月和2020年3月。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d391d714df3653fdc975b81b3575c4a\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If companies had good market-timing skills in deciding when to repurchase shares, of course, the buyback yield would have been highest at those bottoms, not lowest. Just the reverse would have been the case at the 2007 bull market high: If companies were good market timers, the buyback yield would have been lowest then, rather than at one of its highest levels in decades.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果公司在决定何时回购股票时具有良好的市场时机技巧，那么回购收益率将在这些底部最高，而不是最低。2007年牛市高点的情况恰恰相反：如果公司善于把握市场时机，那么回购收益率将是最低的，而不是几十年来的最高水平之一。</blockquote></p><p> It’s probably not an accident that insider selling and share repurchases are trending higher at the same time. Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, explains why:</p><p><blockquote>内幕交易和股票回购同时走高可能并非偶然。Research Affiliates创始人Rob Arnott解释了原因：</blockquote></p><p> “Say you’re a CEO, and you have 10 million shares of stock options [that you want to redeem],” he told me a couple of months ago. “You’ll want to mitigate market impact by doing a stock buyback at the same time. So, noisily announce a 10 million share stock buyback for a certain date… Issue yourself 10 million shares of new stock at about the same time and promptly sell it. Change in the float of the stock? None. Perception in the marketplace? ‘They did another big buyback! Applause!’”</p><p><blockquote>“假设你是一名首席执行官，你有1000万股股票期权（你想要赎回），”几个月前他告诉我。“你会想通过同时进行股票回购来减轻市场影响。所以，大声宣布在某个日期回购1000万股股票……大约在同一时间给自己发行1000万股新股，并迅速出售。股票的流通量发生变化？没有一个。市场认知？“他们又进行了一次大规模回购！掌声！’”</blockquote></p><p> Arnott was speaking hypothetically, but if you have any doubt that the situation he describes is real, consider a study published in the November 2018 issue of Review of Financial Studies entitled “Strategic News Releases in Equity Vesting Months.” Its authors are Alex Edmans and Moqi Groen-Xu of the London Business School; Luis Gonclaves-Pinto of the Chinese University of Hong Kong; and Yanbo Wang of Sungkyunkwan University.</p><p><blockquote>阿诺特是假设性的，但如果您对他描述的情况是否真实有任何疑问，请考虑发表在2018年11月号《金融研究评论》上的一项研究，题为“股权归属月的战略新闻发布”。它的作者是伦敦商学院的Alex Edmans和Moqi Groen-Xu；香港中文大学Luis Gonclaves-Pinto；和成均馆大学的王彦博。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers found strong evidence that the average CEO in the U.S. manipulates the flow of news about his company in his “vesting” months, increasing the frequency of positive news and delaying or killing neutral or negative stories. These vesting months represent the first opportunity the CEO has to sell shares or exercise options granted him in prior years. One way in which executives manipulate this flow of positive news is to strategically time the announcement of a new share repurchase program. The authors conclude that the CEO’s manipulation “generates a temporary increase in stock prices and market liquidity, which the CEO exploits by cashing out shortly afterwards.”</p><p><blockquote>研究人员发现了强有力的证据，表明美国首席执行官在“授权”月份会操纵有关其公司的新闻流，增加正面新闻的频率，推迟或扼杀中性或负面故事。这些归属月是首席执行官第一次有机会出售股票或行使前几年授予他的期权。高管们操纵这种积极消息流的一种方法是战略性地选择宣布新股票回购计划的时间。作者的结论是，首席执行官的操纵“会导致股价和市场流动性的暂时上涨，首席执行官随后不久就会套现。”</blockquote></p><p> This research also helps us to understand why the stock market remains so strong despite aggressive insider selling from their own accounts: The increase in share repurchases softens the bearish impact of that selling. Be forewarned: History teaches us that share repurchases only temporarily postpone that impact.</p><p><blockquote>这项研究还帮助我们理解为什么尽管内幕人士从自己的账户进行了激进的抛售，股市仍然如此强劲：股票回购的增加削弱了这种抛售的看跌影响。预先警告：历史告诉我们，股票回购只能暂时推迟这种影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a pickup in both insider selling and share buybacks is a red flag for stocks<blockquote>为什么内幕抛售和股票回购的增加对股市来说是一个危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a pickup in both insider selling and share buybacks is a red flag for stocks<blockquote>为什么内幕抛售和股票回购的增加对股市来说是一个危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corporate insiders are buying company stock with one hand and selling with the other.</p><p><blockquote>公司内部人士一手买入公司股票，一手卖出。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders are aggressively selling with one hand what they’re buying with the other and that’s not a good sign for bullish investors.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士一手积极抛售他们正在购买的东西，这对于看涨的投资者来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because insiders are selling from their own personal accounts, and when they’re betting with their own money they are more right than wrong. And, via share repurchases, they’re buying with other peoples’ money — their corporate cash. Companies historically have been wrong more than right in timing stock buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为内部人士是从自己的个人账户出售的，当他们用自己的钱下注时，他们的正确多于错误。而且，通过股票回购，他们用其他人的钱——他们的公司现金——进行购买。从历史上看，公司在股票回购时机上的错误多于正确。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year I wrote about insiders’ aggressive selling from their own accounts, and this has become even more pronounced in the weeks since. Winston Chua, a data analyst at EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence, reports that insider selling in the first quarter of this year was at a 14-year high.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，我写了一篇关于内部人士通过自己的账户激进抛售的文章，在此后的几周里，这种情况变得更加明显。Informa Financial Intelligence旗下EPFR的数据分析师Winston Chua报告称，今年第一季度的内幕抛售达到了14年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time that insider selling has jumped, companies have also accelerated the pace of repurchasing their shares. The total of stock buybacks in the first quarter, according to Chua, was the most in seven quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在内幕交易激增的同时，公司也加快了回购股票的步伐。蔡美儿表示，第一季度的股票回购总额是七个季度以来最多的。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate how bad companies are at timing their share repurchases, take a look at the chart below. It plots the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.77%so-called buyback yield: total repurchases of S&P 500 companies in a given quarter as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Notice that the lowest buyback yields over the past 15 years occurred at the two most significant bear market bottoms — March 2009 and March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>要了解公司在股票回购时机方面有多糟糕，请看下图。它绘制了标普500的SPX，+0.77%所谓的回购收益率：给定季度标普500公司的回购总额占标普500市值的百分比。请注意，过去15年中最低的回购收益率出现在两个最重要的熊市底部——2009年3月和2020年3月。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d391d714df3653fdc975b81b3575c4a\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If companies had good market-timing skills in deciding when to repurchase shares, of course, the buyback yield would have been highest at those bottoms, not lowest. Just the reverse would have been the case at the 2007 bull market high: If companies were good market timers, the buyback yield would have been lowest then, rather than at one of its highest levels in decades.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果公司在决定何时回购股票时具有良好的市场时机技巧，那么回购收益率将在这些底部最高，而不是最低。2007年牛市高点的情况恰恰相反：如果公司善于把握市场时机，那么回购收益率将是最低的，而不是几十年来的最高水平之一。</blockquote></p><p> It’s probably not an accident that insider selling and share repurchases are trending higher at the same time. Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, explains why:</p><p><blockquote>内幕交易和股票回购同时走高可能并非偶然。Research Affiliates创始人Rob Arnott解释了原因：</blockquote></p><p> “Say you’re a CEO, and you have 10 million shares of stock options [that you want to redeem],” he told me a couple of months ago. “You’ll want to mitigate market impact by doing a stock buyback at the same time. So, noisily announce a 10 million share stock buyback for a certain date… Issue yourself 10 million shares of new stock at about the same time and promptly sell it. Change in the float of the stock? None. Perception in the marketplace? ‘They did another big buyback! Applause!’”</p><p><blockquote>“假设你是一名首席执行官，你有1000万股股票期权（你想要赎回），”几个月前他告诉我。“你会想通过同时进行股票回购来减轻市场影响。所以，大声宣布在某个日期回购1000万股股票……大约在同一时间给自己发行1000万股新股，并迅速出售。股票的流通量发生变化？没有一个。市场认知？“他们又进行了一次大规模回购！掌声！’”</blockquote></p><p> Arnott was speaking hypothetically, but if you have any doubt that the situation he describes is real, consider a study published in the November 2018 issue of Review of Financial Studies entitled “Strategic News Releases in Equity Vesting Months.” Its authors are Alex Edmans and Moqi Groen-Xu of the London Business School; Luis Gonclaves-Pinto of the Chinese University of Hong Kong; and Yanbo Wang of Sungkyunkwan University.</p><p><blockquote>阿诺特是假设性的，但如果您对他描述的情况是否真实有任何疑问，请考虑发表在2018年11月号《金融研究评论》上的一项研究，题为“股权归属月的战略新闻发布”。它的作者是伦敦商学院的Alex Edmans和Moqi Groen-Xu；香港中文大学Luis Gonclaves-Pinto；和成均馆大学的王彦博。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers found strong evidence that the average CEO in the U.S. manipulates the flow of news about his company in his “vesting” months, increasing the frequency of positive news and delaying or killing neutral or negative stories. These vesting months represent the first opportunity the CEO has to sell shares or exercise options granted him in prior years. One way in which executives manipulate this flow of positive news is to strategically time the announcement of a new share repurchase program. The authors conclude that the CEO’s manipulation “generates a temporary increase in stock prices and market liquidity, which the CEO exploits by cashing out shortly afterwards.”</p><p><blockquote>研究人员发现了强有力的证据，表明美国首席执行官在“授权”月份会操纵有关其公司的新闻流，增加正面新闻的频率，推迟或扼杀中性或负面故事。这些归属月是首席执行官第一次有机会出售股票或行使前几年授予他的期权。高管们操纵这种积极消息流的一种方法是战略性地选择宣布新股票回购计划的时间。作者的结论是，首席执行官的操纵“会导致股价和市场流动性的暂时上涨，首席执行官随后不久就会套现。”</blockquote></p><p> This research also helps us to understand why the stock market remains so strong despite aggressive insider selling from their own accounts: The increase in share repurchases softens the bearish impact of that selling. Be forewarned: History teaches us that share repurchases only temporarily postpone that impact.</p><p><blockquote>这项研究还帮助我们理解为什么尽管内幕人士从自己的账户进行了激进的抛售，股市仍然如此强劲：股票回购的增加削弱了这种抛售的看跌影响。预先警告：历史告诉我们，股票回购只能暂时推迟这种影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-pickup-of-both-insider-selling-and-share-buybacks-is-a-red-flag-for-stocks-11617929586?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-pickup-of-both-insider-selling-and-share-buybacks-is-a-red-flag-for-stocks-11617929586?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106270602","content_text":"Corporate insiders are buying company stock with one hand and selling with the other.\nCorporate insiders are aggressively selling with one hand what they’re buying with the other and that’s not a good sign for bullish investors.\nThat’s because insiders are selling from their own personal accounts, and when they’re betting with their own money they are more right than wrong. And, via share repurchases, they’re buying with other peoples’ money — their corporate cash. Companies historically have been wrong more than right in timing stock buybacks.\nEarlier this year I wrote about insiders’ aggressive selling from their own accounts, and this has become even more pronounced in the weeks since. Winston Chua, a data analyst at EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence, reports that insider selling in the first quarter of this year was at a 14-year high.\nAt the same time that insider selling has jumped, companies have also accelerated the pace of repurchasing their shares. The total of stock buybacks in the first quarter, according to Chua, was the most in seven quarters.\nTo appreciate how bad companies are at timing their share repurchases, take a look at the chart below. It plots the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.77%so-called buyback yield: total repurchases of S&P 500 companies in a given quarter as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Notice that the lowest buyback yields over the past 15 years occurred at the two most significant bear market bottoms — March 2009 and March 2020.\n\nIf companies had good market-timing skills in deciding when to repurchase shares, of course, the buyback yield would have been highest at those bottoms, not lowest. Just the reverse would have been the case at the 2007 bull market high: If companies were good market timers, the buyback yield would have been lowest then, rather than at one of its highest levels in decades.\nIt’s probably not an accident that insider selling and share repurchases are trending higher at the same time. Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, explains why:\n“Say you’re a CEO, and you have 10 million shares of stock options [that you want to redeem],” he told me a couple of months ago. “You’ll want to mitigate market impact by doing a stock buyback at the same time. So, noisily announce a 10 million share stock buyback for a certain date… Issue yourself 10 million shares of new stock at about the same time and promptly sell it. Change in the float of the stock? None. Perception in the marketplace? ‘They did another big buyback! Applause!’”\nArnott was speaking hypothetically, but if you have any doubt that the situation he describes is real, consider a study published in the November 2018 issue of Review of Financial Studies entitled “Strategic News Releases in Equity Vesting Months.” Its authors are Alex Edmans and Moqi Groen-Xu of the London Business School; Luis Gonclaves-Pinto of the Chinese University of Hong Kong; and Yanbo Wang of Sungkyunkwan University.\nThe researchers found strong evidence that the average CEO in the U.S. manipulates the flow of news about his company in his “vesting” months, increasing the frequency of positive news and delaying or killing neutral or negative stories. These vesting months represent the first opportunity the CEO has to sell shares or exercise options granted him in prior years. One way in which executives manipulate this flow of positive news is to strategically time the announcement of a new share repurchase program. The authors conclude that the CEO’s manipulation “generates a temporary increase in stock prices and market liquidity, which the CEO exploits by cashing out shortly afterwards.”\nThis research also helps us to understand why the stock market remains so strong despite aggressive insider selling from their own accounts: The increase in share repurchases softens the bearish impact of that selling. Be forewarned: History teaches us that share repurchases only temporarily postpone that impact.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/342142066"}
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