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2021-04-07

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Why Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该留意股票的这一红热信号</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":341389664,"tweetId":"341389664","gmtCreate":1617782928758,"gmtModify":1634296544014,"author":{"id":3574575782343795,"idStr":"3574575782343795","authorId":3574575782343795,"authorIdStr":"3574575782343795","name":"MrSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5bdec030dd49d0dabdf0b9138e4311a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like</body></html>","text":"Please like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341389664","repostId":1196832997,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196832997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617782758,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196832997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该留意股票的这一红热信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196832997","media":"Barrons","summary":"The economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The March jo","content":"The economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The&nbsp;March jobs report grabbed most of the headlines, but the latest manufacturing data may offer the best clue for the U.S. stock market.<blockquote>最近几天的经济日历给了投资者很多看涨的理由。3月份的就业报告占据了大部分头条新闻，但最新的制造业数据可能会为美国股市提供最好的线索。</blockquote> First, to recap: the Institute for Supply Management’s March&nbsp;manufacturing purchasing managers index shot up to 64.7&nbsp;in March from 60.8 in February, well past the 61.5 economists polled by FactSet had predicted. That result was the highest since 1983.<blockquote>首先，回顾一下： 美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的 3 月份制造业采购经理人指数从 2 月份的 60.8 飙升至 3 月份的 64.7，远远超过了 FactSet 调查的经济学家预测的 61.5。这一结果是自1983年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> It’s worth revisiting the report during this light-data week. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, notes that the year-over-year change in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stock price index is highly correlated with what he refers to as the M-PMI, also known as the ISM. That’s because the year-over-year growth rate S&amp;P 500 companies’ revenues is highly correlated with the manufacturing index, he says, with the latest reading suggesting a surge in corporate revenue is in the offing.<blockquote>在这个轻数据周，值得重温这份报告。Yardeni Research 总裁 Ed Yardeni 指出，标普500股票价格指数的同比变化与他所说的 M-PMI（也称为 ISM）高度相关。他说，这是因为标普500公司收入的同比增长率与制造业指数高度相关，最新数据显示企业收入即将激增。</blockquote> “The M-PMI has been and continues to be bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds,” Yardeni said in a note to clients on Tuesday. While the reading was hot during March, he says it could get “red hot” in April as a result of the latest round of stimulus spending.<blockquote>“亚德尼在周二给客户的一份报告中说：”M-PMI 一直并将继续看好股票，看跌债券。虽然3月份的数据很热，但他表示，由于最新一轮的刺激支出，4月份的数据可能会变得 “红热”。</blockquote> Consider liquidity data. While M1 and M2 money supply data are now available only monthly—until recently the stats, which reflect currency in circulation plus saving deposits and certain certificates of deposit and money-market deposits, were reported weekly—Yardeni points to a weekly series the Federal Reserve compiles for total deposits at commercial banks. That series rose by a record $2.9 trillion year-over-year through the week of March 17, around the time the U.S. Treasury started to issue the third round of pandemic relief checks. Meanwhile, Yardeni notes, the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed fell $247 billion over the past two weeks (through the March 31 week), as many households received checks and direct deposits of $1,400 per person.<blockquote>考虑流动性数据。虽然 M1 和 M2 货币供应量数据现在只能每月提供一次——直到最近，反映流通中的货币加上储蓄存款、某些存单和货币市场存款的统计数据每周报告一次——亚德尼指出，美联储每周编制一系列商业银行总存款。截至 3 月 17 日当周，这一系列资金同比增长创纪录的 2.9 万亿美元，大约在美国财政部开始发放第三轮疫情救助支票的时间。与此同时，亚德尼指出，财政部在美联储的支票账户在过去两周（截至 3 月 31 日当周）减少了 2470 亿美元，因为许多家庭收到了每人 1400 美元的支票和直接存款。</blockquote> “All that liquidity augurs for another strong, or stronger, reading in April’s M-PMI and a continuation of the bull market in stocks,” Yardeni says.<blockquote>“Yardeni 说：”所有这些流动性都预示着 4 月份的 M-PMI 读数将再次强劲，甚至更强，股市将继续牛市。</blockquote> Digging into the March ISM report reveals strength below the surface. The new orders and production indexes hit the highest levels since January 2004. Supplier deliveries surged to the highest reading since April 1974, while the backlog of orders boomed to the loftiest level since reporting for that subindex started in early 1993. Demand is outpacing supply, and that dynamic doesn’t look like it will change soon.<blockquote>深入挖掘三月份的ISM报告揭示了表面之下的力量。新订单和生产指数达到2004年1月以来的最高水平。供应商交付量飙升至 1974 年 4 月以来的最高水平，而积压订单则飙升至 1993 年初开始报告该分项指数以来的最高水平。需求超过供应，而且这种态势看起来不会很快改变。</blockquote> There is an important flip-side. Producer prices remain elevated as the costs of everything from oil to lumber continue to rise. Over the past two months, the prices paid component of the ISM has hovered at its highest level since July 2008. Rising input prices should squeeze companies’ profit margins, Yardeni says.<blockquote>有一个重要的另一面。随着从石油到木材的成本持续上涨，生产者价格仍然居高不下。过去两个月，ISM 的支付价格部分一直徘徊在 2008 年 7 月以来的最高水平。亚德尼说，投入价格上涨会挤压公司的利润率。</blockquote> Investors will get an update on that front Friday when the Labor Department reports its latest producer-price index. For March, economists expect a big 3.8% jump in wholesale prices from a year earlier (in February, prices increased 2.8% year over year). Policy makers have warned that year-over-year inflation numbers would get hot, but they say increases would be transitory.<blockquote>周五，当劳工部公布最新的生产者价格指数时，投资者将获得该前线的最新情况。经济学家预计 3 月份批发价格将同比大幅上涨 3.8%（2 月份价格同比上涨 2.8%）。政策制定者警告称，同比通胀数据将变得炙手可热，但他们表示，增长将是暂时的。</blockquote> Recent price increases by companies including Kleenex-maker&nbsp;Kimberly-Clark(ticker: KMB) suggest corporations don’t see higher input prices as quite so temporary. That’s potentially to the benefit of corporate profit margins, at least when it comes to the sellers of consumer staples and even if it’s a macro red flag for building inflation. Investors have to wait until next week, when the consumer-price index is released on April 13, to see the extent to which producers are passing on higher costs to consumers.<blockquote>包括面巾纸制造商金佰利公司（股票代码：KMB）在内的公司最近涨价，这表明企业并不认为投入价格上涨是暂时的。这可能有利于企业的利润率，至少对消费品销售商来说是这样，即使这是加剧通货膨胀的宏观危险信号。投资者必须等到下周，即 4 月 13 日消费者价格指数公布时，才能看到生产商将更高的成本转嫁给消费者的程度。</blockquote> For now, though, investors can take comfort in the revenue side of the equation given the high correlations Yardeni observes between the M-PMI and both the S&amp;P 500 stock price index and the year-over-year growth rate in S&amp;P 500 company revenues. Looking at those, stocks have plenty of room to run.<blockquote>不过，就目前而言，鉴于 Yardeni 观察到 M-PMI 与标普500股价指数以及标普500公司收入的同比增长率之间存在高度相关性，投资者可以对等式的收入方面感到安心。从这些来看，股票有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该留意股票的这一红热信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该留意股票的这一红热信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-04-07 16:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The&nbsp;March jobs report grabbed most of the headlines, but the latest manufacturing data may offer the best clue for the U.S. stock market.<blockquote>最近几天的经济日历给了投资者很多看涨的理由。3月份的就业报告占据了大部分头条新闻，但最新的制造业数据可能会为美国股市提供最好的线索。</blockquote> First, to recap: the Institute for Supply Management’s March&nbsp;manufacturing purchasing managers index shot up to 64.7&nbsp;in March from 60.8 in February, well past the 61.5 economists polled by FactSet had predicted. That result was the highest since 1983.<blockquote>首先，回顾一下： 美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的 3 月份制造业采购经理人指数从 2 月份的 60.8 飙升至 3 月份的 64.7，远远超过了 FactSet 调查的经济学家预测的 61.5。这一结果是自1983年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> It’s worth revisiting the report during this light-data week. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, notes that the year-over-year change in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stock price index is highly correlated with what he refers to as the M-PMI, also known as the ISM. That’s because the year-over-year growth rate S&amp;P 500 companies’ revenues is highly correlated with the manufacturing index, he says, with the latest reading suggesting a surge in corporate revenue is in the offing.<blockquote>在这个轻数据周，值得重温这份报告。Yardeni Research 总裁 Ed Yardeni 指出，标普500股票价格指数的同比变化与他所说的 M-PMI（也称为 ISM）高度相关。他说，这是因为标普500公司收入的同比增长率与制造业指数高度相关，最新数据显示企业收入即将激增。</blockquote> “The M-PMI has been and continues to be bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds,” Yardeni said in a note to clients on Tuesday. While the reading was hot during March, he says it could get “red hot” in April as a result of the latest round of stimulus spending.<blockquote>“亚德尼在周二给客户的一份报告中说：”M-PMI 一直并将继续看好股票，看跌债券。虽然3月份的数据很热，但他表示，由于最新一轮的刺激支出，4月份的数据可能会变得 “红热”。</blockquote> Consider liquidity data. While M1 and M2 money supply data are now available only monthly—until recently the stats, which reflect currency in circulation plus saving deposits and certain certificates of deposit and money-market deposits, were reported weekly—Yardeni points to a weekly series the Federal Reserve compiles for total deposits at commercial banks. That series rose by a record $2.9 trillion year-over-year through the week of March 17, around the time the U.S. Treasury started to issue the third round of pandemic relief checks. Meanwhile, Yardeni notes, the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed fell $247 billion over the past two weeks (through the March 31 week), as many households received checks and direct deposits of $1,400 per person.<blockquote>考虑流动性数据。虽然 M1 和 M2 货币供应量数据现在只能每月提供一次——直到最近，反映流通中的货币加上储蓄存款、某些存单和货币市场存款的统计数据每周报告一次——亚德尼指出，美联储每周编制一系列商业银行总存款。截至 3 月 17 日当周，这一系列资金同比增长创纪录的 2.9 万亿美元，大约在美国财政部开始发放第三轮疫情救助支票的时间。与此同时，亚德尼指出，财政部在美联储的支票账户在过去两周（截至 3 月 31 日当周）减少了 2470 亿美元，因为许多家庭收到了每人 1400 美元的支票和直接存款。</blockquote> “All that liquidity augurs for another strong, or stronger, reading in April’s M-PMI and a continuation of the bull market in stocks,” Yardeni says.<blockquote>“Yardeni 说：”所有这些流动性都预示着 4 月份的 M-PMI 读数将再次强劲，甚至更强，股市将继续牛市。</blockquote> Digging into the March ISM report reveals strength below the surface. The new orders and production indexes hit the highest levels since January 2004. Supplier deliveries surged to the highest reading since April 1974, while the backlog of orders boomed to the loftiest level since reporting for that subindex started in early 1993. Demand is outpacing supply, and that dynamic doesn’t look like it will change soon.<blockquote>深入挖掘三月份的ISM报告揭示了表面之下的力量。新订单和生产指数达到2004年1月以来的最高水平。供应商交付量飙升至 1974 年 4 月以来的最高水平，而积压订单则飙升至 1993 年初开始报告该分项指数以来的最高水平。需求超过供应，而且这种态势看起来不会很快改变。</blockquote> There is an important flip-side. Producer prices remain elevated as the costs of everything from oil to lumber continue to rise. Over the past two months, the prices paid component of the ISM has hovered at its highest level since July 2008. Rising input prices should squeeze companies’ profit margins, Yardeni says.<blockquote>有一个重要的另一面。随着从石油到木材的成本持续上涨，生产者价格仍然居高不下。过去两个月，ISM 的支付价格部分一直徘徊在 2008 年 7 月以来的最高水平。亚德尼说，投入价格上涨会挤压公司的利润率。</blockquote> Investors will get an update on that front Friday when the Labor Department reports its latest producer-price index. For March, economists expect a big 3.8% jump in wholesale prices from a year earlier (in February, prices increased 2.8% year over year). Policy makers have warned that year-over-year inflation numbers would get hot, but they say increases would be transitory.<blockquote>周五，当劳工部公布最新的生产者价格指数时，投资者将获得该前线的最新情况。经济学家预计 3 月份批发价格将同比大幅上涨 3.8%（2 月份价格同比上涨 2.8%）。政策制定者警告称，同比通胀数据将变得炙手可热，但他们表示，增长将是暂时的。</blockquote> Recent price increases by companies including Kleenex-maker&nbsp;Kimberly-Clark(ticker: KMB) suggest corporations don’t see higher input prices as quite so temporary. That’s potentially to the benefit of corporate profit margins, at least when it comes to the sellers of consumer staples and even if it’s a macro red flag for building inflation. Investors have to wait until next week, when the consumer-price index is released on April 13, to see the extent to which producers are passing on higher costs to consumers.<blockquote>包括面巾纸制造商金佰利公司（股票代码：KMB）在内的公司最近涨价，这表明企业并不认为投入价格上涨是暂时的。这可能有利于企业的利润率，至少对消费品销售商来说是这样，即使这是加剧通货膨胀的宏观危险信号。投资者必须等到下周，即 4 月 13 日消费者价格指数公布时，才能看到生产商将更高的成本转嫁给消费者的程度。</blockquote> For now, though, investors can take comfort in the revenue side of the equation given the high correlations Yardeni observes between the M-PMI and both the S&amp;P 500 stock price index and the year-over-year growth rate in S&amp;P 500 company revenues. Looking at those, stocks have plenty of room to run.<blockquote>不过，就目前而言，鉴于 Yardeni 观察到 M-PMI 与标普500股价指数以及标普500公司收入的同比增长率之间存在高度相关性，投资者可以对等式的收入方面感到安心。从这些来看，股票有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-investors-should-heed-this-red-hot-sign-for-stocks-51617725446?mod=hp_DAY_6\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-investors-should-heed-this-red-hot-sign-for-stocks-51617725446?mod=hp_DAY_6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196832997","content_text":"The economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The March jobs report grabbed most of the headlines, but the latest manufacturing data may offer the best clue for the U.S. stock market.\nFirst, to recap: the Institute for Supply Management’s March manufacturing purchasing managers index shot up to 64.7 in March from 60.8 in February, well past the 61.5 economists polled by FactSet had predicted. That result was the highest since 1983.\nIt’s worth revisiting the report during this light-data week. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, notes that the year-over-year change in the S&P 500 stock price index is highly correlated with what he refers to as the M-PMI, also known as the ISM. That’s because the year-over-year growth rate S&P 500 companies’ revenues is highly correlated with the manufacturing index, he says, with the latest reading suggesting a surge in corporate revenue is in the offing.\n“The M-PMI has been and continues to be bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds,” Yardeni said in a note to clients on Tuesday. While the reading was hot during March, he says it could get “red hot” in April as a result of the latest round of stimulus spending.\nConsider liquidity data. While M1 and M2 money supply data are now available only monthly—until recently the stats, which reflect currency in circulation plus saving deposits and certain certificates of deposit and money-market deposits, were reported weekly—Yardeni points to a weekly series the Federal Reserve compiles for total deposits at commercial banks. That series rose by a record $2.9 trillion year-over-year through the week of March 17, around the time the U.S. Treasury started to issue the third round of pandemic relief checks. Meanwhile, Yardeni notes, the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed fell $247 billion over the past two weeks (through the March 31 week), as many households received checks and direct deposits of $1,400 per person.\n“All that liquidity augurs for another strong, or stronger, reading in April’s M-PMI and a continuation of the bull market in stocks,” Yardeni says.\nDigging into the March ISM report reveals strength below the surface. The new orders and production indexes hit the highest levels since January 2004. Supplier deliveries surged to the highest reading since April 1974, while the backlog of orders boomed to the loftiest level since reporting for that subindex started in early 1993. Demand is outpacing supply, and that dynamic doesn’t look like it will change soon.\nThere is an important flip-side. Producer prices remain elevated as the costs of everything from oil to lumber continue to rise. Over the past two months, the prices paid component of the ISM has hovered at its highest level since July 2008. Rising input prices should squeeze companies’ profit margins, Yardeni says.\nInvestors will get an update on that front Friday when the Labor Department reports its latest producer-price index. For March, economists expect a big 3.8% jump in wholesale prices from a year earlier (in February, prices increased 2.8% year over year). Policy makers have warned that year-over-year inflation numbers would get hot, but they say increases would be transitory.\nRecent price increases by companies including Kleenex-maker Kimberly-Clark(ticker: KMB) suggest corporations don’t see higher input prices as quite so temporary. That’s potentially to the benefit of corporate profit margins, at least when it comes to the sellers of consumer staples and even if it’s a macro red flag for building inflation. Investors have to wait until next week, when the consumer-price index is released on April 13, to see the extent to which producers are passing on higher costs to consumers.\nFor now, though, investors can take comfort in the revenue side of the equation given the high correlations Yardeni observes between the M-PMI and both the S&P 500 stock price index and the year-over-year growth rate in S&P 500 company revenues. Looking at those, stocks have plenty of room to run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/341389664"}