EquityKing
2021-04-07
Time to add
Earnings Season Is Coming. Get Used to Disappointment.<blockquote>财报季即将到来。习惯失望。</blockquote>
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Get Used to Disappointment.<blockquote>财报季即将到来。习惯失望。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174044924","media":"Barrons","summary":"Earnings season is about to begin—and investors might want to consider a cautious approach.\nIt’s not","content":"<p>Earnings season is about to begin—and investors might want to consider a cautious approach.</p><p><blockquote>财报季即将开始，投资者可能需要考虑采取谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not that profits won’t grow. S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to grow 24% year-over-year, according to FactSet data, boosted by a wipeout from the pandemic in March 2020. The rapid recovery will be a particular benefit for manufacturers, retailers and restaurant operators because expenses in those industries are heavily comprised of fixed costs, and more sales lead to greater products without expenses rising too much.</p><p><blockquote>并不是利润不会增长。FactSet数据显示，在2020年3月疫情爆发的推动下，标普500每股收益预计将同比增长24%。快速复苏将对制造商、零售商和餐馆经营者特别有利，因为这些行业的费用主要由固定成本组成，更多的销售会带来更好的产品，而费用不会上涨太多。</blockquote></p><p> Overall sales are expected to grow by just 6% but the market could have trouble meeting that number. That’s because of supply shortages, which could make it impossible for some companies to meet demand. That could lead to “missed sales altogether,” writes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. Importantly, part of the shortage has resulted from exploding economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>总体销售额预计仅增长6%，但市场可能难以达到这一数字。这是因为供应短缺，这可能会使一些公司无法满足需求。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊写道，这可能会导致“完全错过销售”。重要的是，部分短缺是由爆炸式增长的经济需求造成的。</blockquote></p><p> Margins—while expanding compared to last year—could also disappoint relative to expectations. The price of oil is almost three times higher than it was last year, while copper is up almost twofold. Even corn is up 67% year-over-year. Companies, from manufacturers to consumer firms, are experiencing higher input costs. The prices paid component of the Institute for Supply Chain Management’s manufacturing data recently hit its highest level in over a decade. With producer prices recently rising faster than consumer prices, margins are bound to suffer, Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>利润率虽然与去年相比有所扩大，但相对于预期也可能令人失望。石油价格几乎是去年的三倍，而铜价几乎是去年的两倍。甚至玉米也同比上涨了67%。从制造商到消费公司，企业都在经历更高的投入成本。供应链管理协会制造业数据中的支付价格部分最近达到了十多年来的最高水平。威尔逊表示，由于最近生产者价格上涨速度快于消费者价格上涨速度，利润率必然会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, earnings expectations are already lofty, creating a high bar for companies to clear. Analyst estimates for the S&P 500 in aggregate have increased by almost 9% during the past six months, according to FactSet. “That’s really fast,” said Brandon Pizzurro, portfolio manager at GuideStone Capital Management. “That definitely feels dizzying.”</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，盈利预期已经很高，为公司出清创造了很高的门槛。FactSet的数据显示，过去六个月，分析师对标普500的整体预期增长了近9%。“这真的很快，”GuideStone Capital Management投资组合经理布兰登·皮祖罗(Brandon Pizzurro)表示。“那感觉真的很晕。”</blockquote></p><p> Earnings misses would be particularly painful for stocks, which are pricing in the high profit projections. The average S&P stock trades at over 22 times next year’s earnings, but rising interest rates make stocks less attractive andmany strategists are using a 20 multiplefor their S&P forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票来说，盈利低于预期将尤其痛苦，因为它们的定价反映在高利润预测中。标准普尔股票的平均市盈率超过明年市盈率的22倍，但利率上升降低了股票的吸引力，许多策略师在标准普尔预测中使用20倍。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: Be careful during earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>结论是：财报季要小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Season Is Coming. 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Get Used to Disappointment.<blockquote>财报季即将到来。习惯失望。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 14:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings season is about to begin—and investors might want to consider a cautious approach.</p><p><blockquote>财报季即将开始，投资者可能需要考虑采取谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not that profits won’t grow. S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to grow 24% year-over-year, according to FactSet data, boosted by a wipeout from the pandemic in March 2020. The rapid recovery will be a particular benefit for manufacturers, retailers and restaurant operators because expenses in those industries are heavily comprised of fixed costs, and more sales lead to greater products without expenses rising too much.</p><p><blockquote>并不是利润不会增长。FactSet数据显示，在2020年3月疫情爆发的推动下，标普500每股收益预计将同比增长24%。快速复苏将对制造商、零售商和餐馆经营者特别有利，因为这些行业的费用主要由固定成本组成，更多的销售会带来更好的产品，而费用不会上涨太多。</blockquote></p><p> Overall sales are expected to grow by just 6% but the market could have trouble meeting that number. That’s because of supply shortages, which could make it impossible for some companies to meet demand. That could lead to “missed sales altogether,” writes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. Importantly, part of the shortage has resulted from exploding economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>总体销售额预计仅增长6%，但市场可能难以达到这一数字。这是因为供应短缺，这可能会使一些公司无法满足需求。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊写道，这可能会导致“完全错过销售”。重要的是，部分短缺是由爆炸式增长的经济需求造成的。</blockquote></p><p> Margins—while expanding compared to last year—could also disappoint relative to expectations. The price of oil is almost three times higher than it was last year, while copper is up almost twofold. Even corn is up 67% year-over-year. Companies, from manufacturers to consumer firms, are experiencing higher input costs. The prices paid component of the Institute for Supply Chain Management’s manufacturing data recently hit its highest level in over a decade. With producer prices recently rising faster than consumer prices, margins are bound to suffer, Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>利润率虽然与去年相比有所扩大，但相对于预期也可能令人失望。石油价格几乎是去年的三倍，而铜价几乎是去年的两倍。甚至玉米也同比上涨了67%。从制造商到消费公司，企业都在经历更高的投入成本。供应链管理协会制造业数据中的支付价格部分最近达到了十多年来的最高水平。威尔逊表示，由于最近生产者价格上涨速度快于消费者价格上涨速度，利润率必然会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, earnings expectations are already lofty, creating a high bar for companies to clear. Analyst estimates for the S&P 500 in aggregate have increased by almost 9% during the past six months, according to FactSet. “That’s really fast,” said Brandon Pizzurro, portfolio manager at GuideStone Capital Management. “That definitely feels dizzying.”</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，盈利预期已经很高，为公司出清创造了很高的门槛。FactSet的数据显示，过去六个月，分析师对标普500的整体预期增长了近9%。“这真的很快，”GuideStone Capital Management投资组合经理布兰登·皮祖罗(Brandon Pizzurro)表示。“那感觉真的很晕。”</blockquote></p><p> Earnings misses would be particularly painful for stocks, which are pricing in the high profit projections. The average S&P stock trades at over 22 times next year’s earnings, but rising interest rates make stocks less attractive andmany strategists are using a 20 multiplefor their S&P forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票来说，盈利低于预期将尤其痛苦，因为它们的定价反映在高利润预测中。标准普尔股票的平均市盈率超过明年市盈率的22倍，但利率上升降低了股票的吸引力，许多策略师在标准普尔预测中使用20倍。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: Be careful during earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>结论是：财报季要小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-season-is-coming-get-used-to-disappointment-51617744285?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-season-is-coming-get-used-to-disappointment-51617744285?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174044924","content_text":"Earnings season is about to begin—and investors might want to consider a cautious approach.\nIt’s not that profits won’t grow. S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to grow 24% year-over-year, according to FactSet data, boosted by a wipeout from the pandemic in March 2020. The rapid recovery will be a particular benefit for manufacturers, retailers and restaurant operators because expenses in those industries are heavily comprised of fixed costs, and more sales lead to greater products without expenses rising too much.\nOverall sales are expected to grow by just 6% but the market could have trouble meeting that number. That’s because of supply shortages, which could make it impossible for some companies to meet demand. That could lead to “missed sales altogether,” writes Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. Importantly, part of the shortage has resulted from exploding economic demand.\nMargins—while expanding compared to last year—could also disappoint relative to expectations. The price of oil is almost three times higher than it was last year, while copper is up almost twofold. Even corn is up 67% year-over-year. Companies, from manufacturers to consumer firms, are experiencing higher input costs. The prices paid component of the Institute for Supply Chain Management’s manufacturing data recently hit its highest level in over a decade. With producer prices recently rising faster than consumer prices, margins are bound to suffer, Wilson said.\nMeanwhile, earnings expectations are already lofty, creating a high bar for companies to clear. Analyst estimates for the S&P 500 in aggregate have increased by almost 9% during the past six months, according to FactSet. “That’s really fast,” said Brandon Pizzurro, portfolio manager at GuideStone Capital Management. “That definitely feels dizzying.”\nEarnings misses would be particularly painful for stocks, which are pricing in the high profit projections. The average S&P stock trades at over 22 times next year’s earnings, but rising interest rates make stocks less attractive andmany strategists are using a 20 multiplefor their S&P forecasts.\nThe upshot: Be careful during earnings season.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":685,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/341304960"}
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