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2021-04-02
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Lion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote>
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Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126549174","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscuss","content":"<p><ul> <li>Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscussing precipitation in March, but the precipitous equity market behavior for the U.S stock market on the precipice of all-time highs and what that means for the top stocks moving into April.</li> <li>The inverse of the ancient meteorological proverb aptly describes this past month’shedge fund blowup, a once-in-a generationcanal blockageof worldwide trade, aFed pivot, a treasurymarket selloff, historicelectric vehicleandmarijuana legislation, SPAC-mania, the 1-year anniversary of the pandemic-fueled market selloff and a 6% monthly trough to peak move in the S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY). That led high beta names to lag in the latter half. But what strategy or selection of stocks would have served you best for the month?</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8fb5e2cc1f94dd1e56cfa3805a032c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这不是典型的三月，因为这个月“像羔羊一样进来，像狮子一样出去”。不，我们不是在讨论三月份的降水，而是美国股市处于历史高点边缘的急剧股市行为，以及这对进入四月份的顶级股票意味着什么。</li><li>古老的气象谚语的反义词恰如其分地描述了过去一个月的对冲基金爆炸、全球贸易一代人一次的运河堵塞、美联储转向、国债市场抛售、历史电动汽车和大麻立法、特殊目的收购公司狂热、一周年大流行引发的市场抛售以及标普500（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）每月从低谷到峰值6%的波动。这导致高贝塔值股票在下半年表现落后。但本月什么策略或股票选择最适合您呢？</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>High beta stocks lagged more stable names toward month-end</i></p><p><blockquote><i>接近月底，高贝塔值股票落后于更稳定的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The exogenous events described above can throw a wrench into any defined strategy, whether you’re a value or growth investor, play momentum, sentiment, technicals or earnings revisions, or just buy what you know. What explicit strategy would have told you to be long Hartford Financial(NYSE:HIG), Nucor(NYSE:NUE)or Kansas City Southern(NYSE:KSU), and either short or unexposed to Penn National, Discovery Inc.(NASDAQ:DISCA)and Viacom(NASDAQ:VIAC), the respective winners and losers in the S&P 500 in March?</li> <li>The answer for the above six is insider trading, which we do not condone for obvious reasons.M&A(twice), aboveconsensus earnings,political uncertaintyandhedge fund implosionsdictated the above fortunes and misfortunes.</li> <li>But to outperform the broader market, the answer this month was value investing. So much so, thatone fascinating aspect of Marchwas how the standard “value stocks” started to screen as “momentum” – those stocks that have registered the strongest performance over the past 12 months. Value, in fact, has been so strong, that the last time they screened as momentum was more than 5 years ago.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8f03b27e94be3c947993777fe46d91\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上述外生事件可能会影响任何明确的策略，无论您是价值投资者还是成长型投资者，关注动量、情绪、技术面或盈利修正，或者只是购买您知道的东西。什么样的明确策略会告诉您做多Hartford Financial(NYSE：HIG)、Nucor(NYSE：NUE)或Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)，并做空或不投资Penn National、Discovery Inc.（纳斯达克：DISCA）和维亚康姆（纳斯达克：VIAC），分别是3月份标普500的赢家和输家？</li><li>上述六个问题的答案是内幕交易，出于显而易见的原因，我们不会宽恕内幕交易。并购（两次）、高于共识的盈利、政治不确定性和对冲基金内爆决定了上述命运和不幸。</li><li>但要跑赢大盘，本月的答案是价值投资。因此，3月份的一个有趣的方面是标准的“价值股”如何开始被筛选为“动量股”——那些在过去12个月中表现最强劲的股票。事实上，价值如此强劲，以至于他们上一次筛选为momentum是在5年多前。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>And it’s not just March. Value is the best performing factor strategy this year, up nearly 20%. It narrowly beat the performance of the highest levered stocks – those with the highest ratio of debt/total assets – curious bedfellows.</li> <li>Value itself is not a monolith. It comes in varying forms. For March, a strategy whereby you long stocks in the highest quartile for Ebitda/Enterprise ratios and short those in the lowest quartile returned more than 9%. However, that same strategy in March of last year was the 3rd-worst performing among the 30 factors covered by S&P Global, which could mean some old-fashion mean reversion could have been at play after years of underperformance in the value category.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a753605a6759d9162a39c2c29cbb5763\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>而且不仅仅是三月。价值是今年表现最好的因子策略，上涨近20%。它以微弱优势击败了杠杆率最高的股票——债务/总资产比率最高的股票——好奇的伙伴。</li><li>价值本身不是铁板一块。它有不同的形式。3月份，做多Ebitda/企业比率最高四分位数的股票并做空最低四分位数的股票的策略回报率超过9%。然而，去年3月的同一策略在S&P Global涵盖的30个因素中表现第三差，这可能意味着在价值类别多年表现不佳后，一些老式的均值回归可能正在发挥作用。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: S&P Global</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：标准普尔全球</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We looked at some specific stocks that performed well, just using the Seeking Alphascreener paired with our proprietary Quant ratings, which happen to have atrack record of outperformancesince inception in 2010. We screened for stocks in the U.S., with more than $500 million market cap, a value rating of A or greater that screened with a bullish or very bullish quant rating.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92f4e08c81e69bcc72ab4bbe4b6d3386\" tg-width=\"1084\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们研究了一些表现良好的特定股票，仅使用Seeking Alphascreener与我们专有的量化评级相结合，这些股票自2010年成立以来恰好拥有优异表现的记录。我们筛选了市值超过5亿美元、价值评级为A或更高、量化评级为看涨或非常看涨的美国股票。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The top 5 performing names in March that screened in the above criteria at the beginning of March registered more than 15% returns in the month, led by TimkenSteel(NYSE:TMST)at 40%, Amneal Pharma(NYSE:AMRX), Resideo Technologies(NYSE:REZI), Super Micro Computer(NASDAQ:SMCI)and Jabil(NYSE:JBL). That compares to the S&P ‘s 4.26% return.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1888173c43e95e5960c33d68bbb0fc\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>3月初按照上述标准筛选的3月份表现最好的5家公司当月回报率超过15%，其中铁姆肯钢铁公司（纽约证券交易所代码：TMST）为40%，Amneal Pharma（纽约证券交易所代码：AMRX）、Resideo Technologies（纽约证券交易所代码：REZI）、超微计算机（纳斯达克证券交易所代码：SMCI）和捷普（纽约证券交易所代码：JBL）。相比之下，标准普尔指数的回报率为4.26%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Of note, 3 of the 12 highest performing names were homebuilders, though their ratings weren’t lifted to a bullish rating until a third of the month had passed. One, Green Brick(NASDAQ:GRBK), was featured among the best value picks by Seeking Alpha's head of quantitative strategies, Steven Cress, in his September discussionabout how many value names screened better than mega-cap tech, like Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).</li> <li>Beyond picking individual stocks, allocating to ETFs that focused on this strategy would have yielded an approximate 6.3% return, outperforming the S&P 500(SP500)by 200bps. The largest value ETFs, found viaSA’s ETF screener,include Vanguard Value ETF(NYSEARCA:VTV), iShares S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:IVE) and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:SPYV), with performance across the instruments of 6.3% during March. That compared with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO)up 2.75% on the month.</li> </ul> <ul> <li>Another value ETF, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IWD), lagged at 4.9%. Hamstringing its performance was likely the higher concentration in tech, which was impacted by the aforementioned treasury selloff this month. Higher interest rates hit growth names particularly hard. Compared to VTV, which boasts 3x more of a concentration in financials than in tech, IWD is nearer to 2x. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose just 0.4% in March. The Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks large cap tech, was down 1.6% on the month.</li> </ul> The Future</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>值得注意的是，12家表现最好的公司中有3家是房屋建筑商，尽管他们的评级直到本月三分之一后才被提升至看涨评级。其中之一是Green Brick（纳斯达克股票代码：GRBK），Seeking Alpha量化策略主管Steven Cress在9月份的讨论中被评为最佳价值精选之一，该讨论涉及有多少价值股比微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）和苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）。</li><li>除了挑选个股之外，配置专注于此策略的ETF将产生约6.3%的回报率，比标普500(SP500)高出200个基点。viaSA的ETF筛选机构发现，最大的价值ETF包括Vanguard价值ETF(NYSEARCA：VTV)、iShares标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IVE)和SPDR Portfolio标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：SPYV)，各工具的表现为6.3%三月。相比之下，先锋标普500 ETF(NYSEARCA：VOO)本月上涨2.75%。</li></ul><ul><li>另一只价值ETF iShares Russell 1000价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IWD)落后4.9%。削弱其业绩的可能是科技股的集中度较高，而科技股受到了本月上述国债抛售的影响。利率上升对成长型公司的打击尤其严重。与VTV相比，VTV在金融领域的集中度是科技领域的3倍，而IWD则接近2倍。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数3月份仅上涨0.4%。追踪大盘科技股的景顺QQQ ETF（纳斯达克股票代码：QQQ）本月下跌1.6%。</li></ul>未来</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>And how does that set up for April? Something to consider is seasonality --not surprising given the beginning of earnings season in just two weeks, which may set the tone. It is also bullish: Since 1928, April is the second-best month of average returns of the year, BofA analysts wrote this week.</li> <li>And on a shorter-term horizon, there is seasonality intra-month. The analysts also surfaced research that the first 10 days of each month typically outperform the last 10. That pattern for January-March has already held. But for April more broadly, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that in the last 15 years, the S&P 500 has closed higher in 14 of those 15 Aprils.</li> <li>That isn’t to say that value specifically will outperform, but it speaks broadly to market and portfolio performance. Morgan Stanley in a late March note remarked that “violent rotations” left many portfolios “gored” this year despite the fact that the rotations themselves were “fundamentally triggered.” They upgraded Consumer Staples names as part of that note to account for their expectations that inflation, personal income and GDP rates of growth will slow in the quarter/quarter and year/year comparisons to come.</li> <li>If you believe, like JP Morgan analysts, that the trends for value will remain intact and that the risks for a pullback are low, it may be worth screening some stocks to determine the best opportunity for your portfolio.</li> <li>When we conducted an analysis with the highest quant rating using the above screen criteria (expanded to include names outside the U.S.) the stocks appear to your humble author to be bets on a global recovery. Shipowner Danaos Corp.(NYSE:DAC), Resolute Forest Products(NYSE:RFP), TimkenSteel (TMST), publisher Gannett Co.(NYSE:GCI)and Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS). Danaos just so happens to be relevant to therecent Suez Canal blockage.</li> <li>For those who fancy stocks with a heftier market cap (i.e. >$5B), BNP Paribas(OTCQX:BNPQY), Impala Platinum(OTCQX:IMPUY), ING Groep(NYSE:ING)and Vale S.A.(NYSE:VALE)are among those on the list; cyclical names if you had to name any.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d46ccc40c50c865d9caa7e49cbfe9e\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>四月的情况如何？需要考虑的是季节性——考虑到财报季将在短短两周内开始，这并不奇怪，这可能会定下基调。这也是看涨的：美国银行分析师本周写道，自1928年以来，4月是一年中平均回报率第二好的月份。</li><li>从短期来看，月内存在季节性。分析师还浮出水面的研究表明，每个月的前10天通常优于后10天。1月至3月的这种模式已经存在。但从更广泛的4月份来看，LPL Financial的Ryan Detrick强调，在过去15年中，标普500在这15个4月中有14个收高。</li><li>这并不是说价值会跑赢大盘，但它广泛地说明了市场和投资组合的表现。摩根士丹利在3月底的一份报告中表示，尽管轮换本身是“从根本上触发的”，但今年“暴力轮换”导致许多投资组合“陷入困境”。作为该报告的一部分，他们升级了必需消费品名称，以考虑到他们对未来季度和年度比较中通胀、个人收入和GDP增长率将放缓的预期。</li><li>如果您像摩根大通分析师一样相信价值趋势将保持不变并且回调风险较低，那么可能值得筛选一些股票以确定您投资组合的最佳机会。</li><li>当我们使用上述筛选标准（扩展到包括美国以外的名称）进行具有最高量化评级的分析时，在您谦逊的作者看来，这些股票似乎是对全球复苏的押注。船东Danaos Corp.（纽约证券交易所代码：DAC）、Resolute Forest Products（纽约证券交易所代码：RFP）、铁姆肯钢铁公司（TMST）、出版商Gannett Co.（纽约证券交易所代码：GCI）和巴克莱银行（纽约证券交易所代码：BCS）。达瑙斯恰好与最近的苏伊士运河堵塞有关。</li><li>对于那些喜欢市值较大（即>50亿美元）股票的人来说，法国巴黎银行(OTCQX：BNPQY)、Impala Platinum(OTCQX：IMPUY)、ING Groep(NYSE：ING)和Vale S.A.(NYSE：VALE)都在名单上；循环名称，如果你必须说出任何名称。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Stocks screened in a vacuum may not make sense without looking more broadly. BNP Paribas in its latest outlook piece is “more optimistic” about global growth than they were 3 months ago, with U.S. forecasts “up sharply.” And just this past week, U.S. President Bidenput forth an ambitious infrastructure plan, which calls for additional stimulus to be added to the economy. Naturally, it is subject to political will and there are risks it dies on the vine or passes the Senate in some slimmed down version. But BofA, in discussing the prospects for further stimulus, advised owning GDP-sensitive cyclical stocks, that are strong on value, and benefit from higher capital expenditures.</li> <li>Stay tuned next month for another look at the best stocks and strategies. There’s also something to be gleaned by how at year-end, thesame companies keep making appearances on the winners and losers lists.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果不从更广泛的角度来看，在真空中筛选的股票可能没有意义。法国巴黎银行在其最新的展望文章中对全球经济增长比三个月前“更加乐观”，其中美国的预测“大幅上调”。就在上周，美国总统拜登提出了一项雄心勃勃的基础设施计划，评级为经济提供额外刺激。自然，它受制于政治意愿，存在着它夭折或以某种精简版本在参议院通过的风险。但美国银行在讨论进一步刺激的前景时，建议持有对GDP敏感的周期性股票，这些股票价值强劲，并受益于更高的资本支出。</li><li>下个月请继续关注，再次了解最佳股票和策略。同样的公司在年底如何不断出现在赢家和输家名单上，也可以收集到一些东西。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul> <li>Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscussing precipitation in March, but the precipitous equity market behavior for the U.S stock market on the precipice of all-time highs and what that means for the top stocks moving into April.</li> <li>The inverse of the ancient meteorological proverb aptly describes this past month’shedge fund blowup, a once-in-a generationcanal blockageof worldwide trade, aFed pivot, a treasurymarket selloff, historicelectric vehicleandmarijuana legislation, SPAC-mania, the 1-year anniversary of the pandemic-fueled market selloff and a 6% monthly trough to peak move in the S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY). That led high beta names to lag in the latter half. But what strategy or selection of stocks would have served you best for the month?</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8fb5e2cc1f94dd1e56cfa3805a032c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这不是典型的三月，因为这个月“像羔羊一样进来，像狮子一样出去”。不，我们不是在讨论三月份的降水，而是美国股市处于历史高点边缘的急剧股市行为，以及这对进入四月份的顶级股票意味着什么。</li><li>古老的气象谚语的反义词恰如其分地描述了过去一个月的对冲基金爆炸、全球贸易一代人一次的运河堵塞、美联储转向、国债市场抛售、历史电动汽车和大麻立法、特殊目的收购公司狂热、一周年大流行引发的市场抛售以及标普500（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）每月从低谷到峰值6%的波动。这导致高贝塔值股票在下半年表现落后。但本月什么策略或股票选择最适合您呢？</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>High beta stocks lagged more stable names toward month-end</i></p><p><blockquote><i>接近月底，高贝塔值股票落后于更稳定的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The exogenous events described above can throw a wrench into any defined strategy, whether you’re a value or growth investor, play momentum, sentiment, technicals or earnings revisions, or just buy what you know. What explicit strategy would have told you to be long Hartford Financial(NYSE:HIG), Nucor(NYSE:NUE)or Kansas City Southern(NYSE:KSU), and either short or unexposed to Penn National, Discovery Inc.(NASDAQ:DISCA)and Viacom(NASDAQ:VIAC), the respective winners and losers in the S&P 500 in March?</li> <li>The answer for the above six is insider trading, which we do not condone for obvious reasons.M&A(twice), aboveconsensus earnings,political uncertaintyandhedge fund implosionsdictated the above fortunes and misfortunes.</li> <li>But to outperform the broader market, the answer this month was value investing. So much so, thatone fascinating aspect of Marchwas how the standard “value stocks” started to screen as “momentum” – those stocks that have registered the strongest performance over the past 12 months. Value, in fact, has been so strong, that the last time they screened as momentum was more than 5 years ago.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8f03b27e94be3c947993777fe46d91\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上述外生事件可能会影响任何明确的策略，无论您是价值投资者还是成长型投资者，关注动量、情绪、技术面或盈利修正，或者只是购买您知道的东西。什么样的明确策略会告诉您做多Hartford Financial(NYSE：HIG)、Nucor(NYSE：NUE)或Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)，并做空或不投资Penn National、Discovery Inc.（纳斯达克：DISCA）和维亚康姆（纳斯达克：VIAC），分别是3月份标普500的赢家和输家？</li><li>上述六个问题的答案是内幕交易，出于显而易见的原因，我们不会宽恕内幕交易。并购（两次）、高于共识的盈利、政治不确定性和对冲基金内爆决定了上述命运和不幸。</li><li>但要跑赢大盘，本月的答案是价值投资。因此，3月份的一个有趣的方面是标准的“价值股”如何开始被筛选为“动量股”——那些在过去12个月中表现最强劲的股票。事实上，价值如此强劲，以至于他们上一次筛选为momentum是在5年多前。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>And it’s not just March. Value is the best performing factor strategy this year, up nearly 20%. It narrowly beat the performance of the highest levered stocks – those with the highest ratio of debt/total assets – curious bedfellows.</li> <li>Value itself is not a monolith. It comes in varying forms. For March, a strategy whereby you long stocks in the highest quartile for Ebitda/Enterprise ratios and short those in the lowest quartile returned more than 9%. However, that same strategy in March of last year was the 3rd-worst performing among the 30 factors covered by S&P Global, which could mean some old-fashion mean reversion could have been at play after years of underperformance in the value category.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a753605a6759d9162a39c2c29cbb5763\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>而且不仅仅是三月。价值是今年表现最好的因子策略，上涨近20%。它以微弱优势击败了杠杆率最高的股票——债务/总资产比率最高的股票——好奇的伙伴。</li><li>价值本身不是铁板一块。它有不同的形式。3月份，做多Ebitda/企业比率最高四分位数的股票并做空最低四分位数的股票的策略回报率超过9%。然而，去年3月的同一策略在S&P Global涵盖的30个因素中表现第三差，这可能意味着在价值类别多年表现不佳后，一些老式的均值回归可能正在发挥作用。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: S&P Global</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：标准普尔全球</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We looked at some specific stocks that performed well, just using the Seeking Alphascreener paired with our proprietary Quant ratings, which happen to have atrack record of outperformancesince inception in 2010. We screened for stocks in the U.S., with more than $500 million market cap, a value rating of A or greater that screened with a bullish or very bullish quant rating.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92f4e08c81e69bcc72ab4bbe4b6d3386\" tg-width=\"1084\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们研究了一些表现良好的特定股票，仅使用Seeking Alphascreener与我们专有的量化评级相结合，这些股票自2010年成立以来恰好拥有优异表现的记录。我们筛选了市值超过5亿美元、价值评级为A或更高、量化评级为看涨或非常看涨的美国股票。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The top 5 performing names in March that screened in the above criteria at the beginning of March registered more than 15% returns in the month, led by TimkenSteel(NYSE:TMST)at 40%, Amneal Pharma(NYSE:AMRX), Resideo Technologies(NYSE:REZI), Super Micro Computer(NASDAQ:SMCI)and Jabil(NYSE:JBL). That compares to the S&P ‘s 4.26% return.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1888173c43e95e5960c33d68bbb0fc\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>3月初按照上述标准筛选的3月份表现最好的5家公司当月回报率超过15%，其中铁姆肯钢铁公司（纽约证券交易所代码：TMST）为40%，Amneal Pharma（纽约证券交易所代码：AMRX）、Resideo Technologies（纽约证券交易所代码：REZI）、超微计算机（纳斯达克证券交易所代码：SMCI）和捷普（纽约证券交易所代码：JBL）。相比之下，标准普尔指数的回报率为4.26%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Of note, 3 of the 12 highest performing names were homebuilders, though their ratings weren’t lifted to a bullish rating until a third of the month had passed. One, Green Brick(NASDAQ:GRBK), was featured among the best value picks by Seeking Alpha's head of quantitative strategies, Steven Cress, in his September discussionabout how many value names screened better than mega-cap tech, like Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).</li> <li>Beyond picking individual stocks, allocating to ETFs that focused on this strategy would have yielded an approximate 6.3% return, outperforming the S&P 500(SP500)by 200bps. The largest value ETFs, found viaSA’s ETF screener,include Vanguard Value ETF(NYSEARCA:VTV), iShares S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:IVE) and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:SPYV), with performance across the instruments of 6.3% during March. That compared with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO)up 2.75% on the month.</li> </ul> <ul> <li>Another value ETF, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IWD), lagged at 4.9%. Hamstringing its performance was likely the higher concentration in tech, which was impacted by the aforementioned treasury selloff this month. Higher interest rates hit growth names particularly hard. Compared to VTV, which boasts 3x more of a concentration in financials than in tech, IWD is nearer to 2x. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose just 0.4% in March. The Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks large cap tech, was down 1.6% on the month.</li> </ul> The Future</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>值得注意的是，12家表现最好的公司中有3家是房屋建筑商，尽管他们的评级直到本月三分之一后才被提升至看涨评级。其中之一是Green Brick（纳斯达克股票代码：GRBK），Seeking Alpha量化策略主管Steven Cress在9月份的讨论中被评为最佳价值精选之一，该讨论涉及有多少价值股比微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）和苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）。</li><li>除了挑选个股之外，配置专注于此策略的ETF将产生约6.3%的回报率，比标普500(SP500)高出200个基点。viaSA的ETF筛选机构发现，最大的价值ETF包括Vanguard价值ETF(NYSEARCA：VTV)、iShares标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IVE)和SPDR Portfolio标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：SPYV)，各工具的表现为6.3%三月。相比之下，先锋标普500 ETF(NYSEARCA：VOO)本月上涨2.75%。</li></ul><ul><li>另一只价值ETF iShares Russell 1000价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IWD)落后4.9%。削弱其业绩的可能是科技股的集中度较高，而科技股受到了本月上述国债抛售的影响。利率上升对成长型公司的打击尤其严重。与VTV相比，VTV在金融领域的集中度是科技领域的3倍，而IWD则接近2倍。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数3月份仅上涨0.4%。追踪大盘科技股的景顺QQQ ETF（纳斯达克股票代码：QQQ）本月下跌1.6%。</li></ul>未来</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>And how does that set up for April? Something to consider is seasonality --not surprising given the beginning of earnings season in just two weeks, which may set the tone. It is also bullish: Since 1928, April is the second-best month of average returns of the year, BofA analysts wrote this week.</li> <li>And on a shorter-term horizon, there is seasonality intra-month. The analysts also surfaced research that the first 10 days of each month typically outperform the last 10. That pattern for January-March has already held. But for April more broadly, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that in the last 15 years, the S&P 500 has closed higher in 14 of those 15 Aprils.</li> <li>That isn’t to say that value specifically will outperform, but it speaks broadly to market and portfolio performance. Morgan Stanley in a late March note remarked that “violent rotations” left many portfolios “gored” this year despite the fact that the rotations themselves were “fundamentally triggered.” They upgraded Consumer Staples names as part of that note to account for their expectations that inflation, personal income and GDP rates of growth will slow in the quarter/quarter and year/year comparisons to come.</li> <li>If you believe, like JP Morgan analysts, that the trends for value will remain intact and that the risks for a pullback are low, it may be worth screening some stocks to determine the best opportunity for your portfolio.</li> <li>When we conducted an analysis with the highest quant rating using the above screen criteria (expanded to include names outside the U.S.) the stocks appear to your humble author to be bets on a global recovery. Shipowner Danaos Corp.(NYSE:DAC), Resolute Forest Products(NYSE:RFP), TimkenSteel (TMST), publisher Gannett Co.(NYSE:GCI)and Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS). Danaos just so happens to be relevant to therecent Suez Canal blockage.</li> <li>For those who fancy stocks with a heftier market cap (i.e. >$5B), BNP Paribas(OTCQX:BNPQY), Impala Platinum(OTCQX:IMPUY), ING Groep(NYSE:ING)and Vale S.A.(NYSE:VALE)are among those on the list; cyclical names if you had to name any.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d46ccc40c50c865d9caa7e49cbfe9e\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>四月的情况如何？需要考虑的是季节性——考虑到财报季将在短短两周内开始，这并不奇怪，这可能会定下基调。这也是看涨的：美国银行分析师本周写道，自1928年以来，4月是一年中平均回报率第二好的月份。</li><li>从短期来看，月内存在季节性。分析师还浮出水面的研究表明，每个月的前10天通常优于后10天。1月至3月的这种模式已经存在。但从更广泛的4月份来看，LPL Financial的Ryan Detrick强调，在过去15年中，标普500在这15个4月中有14个收高。</li><li>这并不是说价值会跑赢大盘，但它广泛地说明了市场和投资组合的表现。摩根士丹利在3月底的一份报告中表示，尽管轮换本身是“从根本上触发的”，但今年“暴力轮换”导致许多投资组合“陷入困境”。作为该报告的一部分，他们升级了必需消费品名称，以考虑到他们对未来季度和年度比较中通胀、个人收入和GDP增长率将放缓的预期。</li><li>如果您像摩根大通分析师一样相信价值趋势将保持不变并且回调风险较低，那么可能值得筛选一些股票以确定您投资组合的最佳机会。</li><li>当我们使用上述筛选标准（扩展到包括美国以外的名称）进行具有最高量化评级的分析时，在您谦逊的作者看来，这些股票似乎是对全球复苏的押注。船东Danaos Corp.（纽约证券交易所代码：DAC）、Resolute Forest Products（纽约证券交易所代码：RFP）、铁姆肯钢铁公司（TMST）、出版商Gannett Co.（纽约证券交易所代码：GCI）和巴克莱银行（纽约证券交易所代码：BCS）。达瑙斯恰好与最近的苏伊士运河堵塞有关。</li><li>对于那些喜欢市值较大（即>50亿美元）股票的人来说，法国巴黎银行(OTCQX：BNPQY)、Impala Platinum(OTCQX：IMPUY)、ING Groep(NYSE：ING)和Vale S.A.(NYSE：VALE)都在名单上；循环名称，如果你必须说出任何名称。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Stocks screened in a vacuum may not make sense without looking more broadly. BNP Paribas in its latest outlook piece is “more optimistic” about global growth than they were 3 months ago, with U.S. forecasts “up sharply.” And just this past week, U.S. President Bidenput forth an ambitious infrastructure plan, which calls for additional stimulus to be added to the economy. Naturally, it is subject to political will and there are risks it dies on the vine or passes the Senate in some slimmed down version. But BofA, in discussing the prospects for further stimulus, advised owning GDP-sensitive cyclical stocks, that are strong on value, and benefit from higher capital expenditures.</li> <li>Stay tuned next month for another look at the best stocks and strategies. There’s also something to be gleaned by how at year-end, thesame companies keep making appearances on the winners and losers lists.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果不从更广泛的角度来看，在真空中筛选的股票可能没有意义。法国巴黎银行在其最新的展望文章中对全球经济增长比三个月前“更加乐观”，其中美国的预测“大幅上调”。就在上周，美国总统拜登提出了一项雄心勃勃的基础设施计划，评级为经济提供额外刺激。自然，它受制于政治意愿，存在着它夭折或以某种精简版本在参议院通过的风险。但美国银行在讨论进一步刺激的前景时，建议持有对GDP敏感的周期性股票，这些股票价值强劲，并受益于更高的资本支出。</li><li>下个月请继续关注，再次了解最佳股票和策略。同样的公司在年底如何不断出现在赢家和输家名单上，也可以收集到一些东西。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678351-march-best-stocks-strategies-april\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678351-march-best-stocks-strategies-april","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126549174","content_text":"Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscussing precipitation in March, but the precipitous equity market behavior for the U.S stock market on the precipice of all-time highs and what that means for the top stocks moving into April.\nThe inverse of the ancient meteorological proverb aptly describes this past month’shedge fund blowup, a once-in-a generationcanal blockageof worldwide trade, aFed pivot, a treasurymarket selloff, historicelectric vehicleandmarijuana legislation, SPAC-mania, the 1-year anniversary of the pandemic-fueled market selloff and a 6% monthly trough to peak move in the S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY). That led high beta names to lag in the latter half. But what strategy or selection of stocks would have served you best for the month?\n\n\nHigh beta stocks lagged more stable names toward month-end\n\nThe exogenous events described above can throw a wrench into any defined strategy, whether you’re a value or growth investor, play momentum, sentiment, technicals or earnings revisions, or just buy what you know. What explicit strategy would have told you to be long Hartford Financial(NYSE:HIG), Nucor(NYSE:NUE)or Kansas City Southern(NYSE:KSU), and either short or unexposed to Penn National, Discovery Inc.(NASDAQ:DISCA)and Viacom(NASDAQ:VIAC), the respective winners and losers in the S&P 500 in March?\nThe answer for the above six is insider trading, which we do not condone for obvious reasons.M&A(twice), aboveconsensus earnings,political uncertaintyandhedge fund implosionsdictated the above fortunes and misfortunes.\nBut to outperform the broader market, the answer this month was value investing. So much so, thatone fascinating aspect of Marchwas how the standard “value stocks” started to screen as “momentum” – those stocks that have registered the strongest performance over the past 12 months. Value, in fact, has been so strong, that the last time they screened as momentum was more than 5 years ago.\n\n\n\nAnd it’s not just March. Value is the best performing factor strategy this year, up nearly 20%. It narrowly beat the performance of the highest levered stocks – those with the highest ratio of debt/total assets – curious bedfellows.\nValue itself is not a monolith. It comes in varying forms. For March, a strategy whereby you long stocks in the highest quartile for Ebitda/Enterprise ratios and short those in the lowest quartile returned more than 9%. However, that same strategy in March of last year was the 3rd-worst performing among the 30 factors covered by S&P Global, which could mean some old-fashion mean reversion could have been at play after years of underperformance in the value category.\n\n\nSource: S&P Global\n\nWe looked at some specific stocks that performed well, just using the Seeking Alphascreener paired with our proprietary Quant ratings, which happen to have atrack record of outperformancesince inception in 2010. We screened for stocks in the U.S., with more than $500 million market cap, a value rating of A or greater that screened with a bullish or very bullish quant rating.\n\n\n\nThe top 5 performing names in March that screened in the above criteria at the beginning of March registered more than 15% returns in the month, led by TimkenSteel(NYSE:TMST)at 40%, Amneal Pharma(NYSE:AMRX), Resideo Technologies(NYSE:REZI), Super Micro Computer(NASDAQ:SMCI)and Jabil(NYSE:JBL). That compares to the S&P ‘s 4.26% return.\n\n\n\nOf note, 3 of the 12 highest performing names were homebuilders, though their ratings weren’t lifted to a bullish rating until a third of the month had passed. One, Green Brick(NASDAQ:GRBK), was featured among the best value picks by Seeking Alpha's head of quantitative strategies, Steven Cress, in his September discussionabout how many value names screened better than mega-cap tech, like Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nBeyond picking individual stocks, allocating to ETFs that focused on this strategy would have yielded an approximate 6.3% return, outperforming the S&P 500(SP500)by 200bps. The largest value ETFs, found viaSA’s ETF screener,include Vanguard Value ETF(NYSEARCA:VTV), iShares S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:IVE) and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:SPYV), with performance across the instruments of 6.3% during March. That compared with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO)up 2.75% on the month.\n\n\nAnother value ETF, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IWD), lagged at 4.9%. Hamstringing its performance was likely the higher concentration in tech, which was impacted by the aforementioned treasury selloff this month. Higher interest rates hit growth names particularly hard. Compared to VTV, which boasts 3x more of a concentration in financials than in tech, IWD is nearer to 2x. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose just 0.4% in March. The Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks large cap tech, was down 1.6% on the month.\n\nThe Future\n\nAnd how does that set up for April? Something to consider is seasonality --not surprising given the beginning of earnings season in just two weeks, which may set the tone. It is also bullish: Since 1928, April is the second-best month of average returns of the year, BofA analysts wrote this week.\nAnd on a shorter-term horizon, there is seasonality intra-month. The analysts also surfaced research that the first 10 days of each month typically outperform the last 10. That pattern for January-March has already held. But for April more broadly, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that in the last 15 years, the S&P 500 has closed higher in 14 of those 15 Aprils.\nThat isn’t to say that value specifically will outperform, but it speaks broadly to market and portfolio performance. Morgan Stanley in a late March note remarked that “violent rotations” left many portfolios “gored” this year despite the fact that the rotations themselves were “fundamentally triggered.” They upgraded Consumer Staples names as part of that note to account for their expectations that inflation, personal income and GDP rates of growth will slow in the quarter/quarter and year/year comparisons to come.\nIf you believe, like JP Morgan analysts, that the trends for value will remain intact and that the risks for a pullback are low, it may be worth screening some stocks to determine the best opportunity for your portfolio.\nWhen we conducted an analysis with the highest quant rating using the above screen criteria (expanded to include names outside the U.S.) the stocks appear to your humble author to be bets on a global recovery. Shipowner Danaos Corp.(NYSE:DAC), Resolute Forest Products(NYSE:RFP), TimkenSteel (TMST), publisher Gannett Co.(NYSE:GCI)and Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS). Danaos just so happens to be relevant to therecent Suez Canal blockage.\nFor those who fancy stocks with a heftier market cap (i.e. >$5B), BNP Paribas(OTCQX:BNPQY), Impala Platinum(OTCQX:IMPUY), ING Groep(NYSE:ING)and Vale S.A.(NYSE:VALE)are among those on the list; cyclical names if you had to name any.\n\n\n\nStocks screened in a vacuum may not make sense without looking more broadly. BNP Paribas in its latest outlook piece is “more optimistic” about global growth than they were 3 months ago, with U.S. forecasts “up sharply.” And just this past week, U.S. President Bidenput forth an ambitious infrastructure plan, which calls for additional stimulus to be added to the economy. Naturally, it is subject to political will and there are risks it dies on the vine or passes the Senate in some slimmed down version. But BofA, in discussing the prospects for further stimulus, advised owning GDP-sensitive cyclical stocks, that are strong on value, and benefit from higher capital expenditures.\nStay tuned next month for another look at the best stocks and strategies. There’s also something to be gleaned by how at year-end, thesame companies keep making appearances on the winners and losers lists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/340056841"}
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